Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people's predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants' favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak's continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler's fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.

Contraexemplos e raciocínio dedutivo

Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Necessidade de cognição, memória de trabalho e recuperação de contra-exemplos para condicionais causais

A procura de contra-exemplos é provavelmente a fase mais importante do raciocí - nio dedutivo, uma vez que visa garantir a validade da conclusão. A explicação mais difundida para a diminuta procura de contra-exemplos é a capacidade limitada da memória de trabalho (Markovits & Barrouillet 2002; De Neys, Schaeken & d’Ydewalle, 2002; 2003; 2005a; 2005b) o que não parece ser suficiente para explicar a pouca iniciativa dos sujeitos em utilizarem a procura de contra-exemplos como estratégia de verificação (Oakhill, & Johnson-Laird, 1985). No presente trabalho testou-se a hipótese de que a necessidade de cognição dos sujeitos (Cacioppo & Petty, 1982) tem influência no processo de recuperação de contra-exemplos, para condicionais causais, de modo aprofundar o conhecimento das razões que levam a que os sujeitos procurem tão poucos contra-exemplos durante o raciocínio dedutivo (Oakhill, & Johnson-Laird, 1985; Johnson-laird, 2006). Para o efeito, um total de 60 participantes (15 alunos do mestrado integrado em psicologia, 15 alunos de doutoramento, 15 operários fabris e 15 empregados de mesa) realizou 3 tarefas: escala Necessidade de Cognição (Silva & Garcia-Marques, 2006), uma tarefa de raciocínio e uma tarefa para avaliar a capacidade da memória de trabalho (Guerreiro, Quelhas & Garcia-Madruga, 2006). Os resultados indicam que o processo de recuperação de contra-exemplos é influenciado pela necessidade de cognição e que esta influência além de significativa é superior à influência da capacidade da memória de trabalho.

Causal factors of anxiety symptoms in children

Aim: The present work aimed to investigate the impact of the child’s cognitions associated with ambiguous stimuli that refer to anxiety, both parents’ fears and anxiety, and parents’ attributions to the child’s interpretations of ambiguous stimuli on child anxiety. The influence of parental modelling on child’s cognitions was also analyzed. Method: The final sample was composed of 111 children (62 boys; 49 girls) with ages between 10 and 11 years (M = 10.6, SD = 0.5) from a community population, and both their parents. The variables identified as most significant were included in a predictive model of anxiety. Results: Results revealed the children’s thoughts (positive and negative) related to ambiguous stimuli that describe anxiety situations. Parents’ fears and mothers’ anxiety significantly predict children’s anxiety. Those variables explain 29% of the variance in children general anxiety. No evidence was found for a direct parental modeling of child cognitions. Conclusion: Children’s positive thoughts seem to be cognitive aspects that buffer against anxiety. Negative thoughts are vulnerability factors for the development of child anxiety. Parents’ fears and anxiety should be analyzed in separate as they have distinct influences over children’s anxiety. Mothers’ fears contribute to children’s anxiety by reducing it, revealing a possible protective effect. It is suggested that the contribution of both parents’ fears to children’s anxiety may be interpreted acknowledging the existence of “psychological and/or behavioral filters”. Mothers’ filters seem to be well developed while fathers’ filters seem to be compromised. The contribution of mothers’ anxiety (but not fathers’ anxiety) to children’s anxiety is also understood in light of the possible existence of a “proximity space” between the child and parents, which is wider with mothers than with fathers.

Children’s reasoning about other’s intentions: False-belief and counterfactual conditional inferences

Dados suplementares associados com o artigo e epígrafe estão disponíveis em: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cogdev.2016.08.007