Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market

What Is a Firm’s Life Expectancy? Empirical Evidence in the Context of Portuguese Companies

It is a fact that the uncertainty about a firm’s future has to be measured and incorporated into a company’s valuation throughout the explicit analysis period – in the continuing or terminal value within valuation models. One of the concerns that can influence the continuing value of enterprises, which is not explicitly considered in traditional valuation models, is a firm’s average life expectancy. Although the literature has studied the life cycle of a firm, there is still a considerable lack of references on this topic. If we ignore the period during which a company has the ability to produce future cash flows, the valuations can fall into irreversible errors, leading to results markedly different from market values. This paper aims to provide a contribution in this area. Its main objective is to construct a mortality table for non-listed Portuguese enterprises, showing that the use of a terminal value through a mathematical expression of perpetuity of free cash flows is not adequate. We provide the use of an appropriate coefficient to perceive the number of years in which the company will continue to operate until its theoretical extinction. If well addressed regarding valuation models, this issue can be used to reduce or even to eliminate one of the main problems that cause distortions in contemporary enterprise valuation models: the premise of an enterprise’s unlimited existence in time. Besides studying the companies involved in it, from their existence to their demise, our study intends to push knowledge forward by providing a consistent life and mortality expectancy table for each age of the company, presenting models with an explicitly and different survival rate for each year. Moreover, we show that, after reaching a certain age, firms can reinvent their business, acquiring maturity and consequently postponing their mortality through an additional life period.

Determinants of Terminal Value in the Evaluation of Companies: A Panel Data Approach to the Context of European Companies.

The uncertainty of the future of a firm has to be modelled and incorporated into the evaluation of companies outside their explicit period of analysis, i.e., in the continuing or terminal value considered within valuation models. However, there is a multiplicity of factors that influence the continuing value of businesses which are not currently being considered within valuation models. In fact, ignoring these factors may cause significant errors of judgment, which can lead models to values of goodwill or badwill, far from the substantial value of the inherent assets. Consequently, these results provided will be markedly different from market values. So, why not consider alternative models incorporating life expectancy of companies, as well as the influence of other attributes of the company in order to get a smoother adjustment between market price and valuation methods? This study aims to provide a contribution towards this area, having as its main objective the analysis of potential determinants of firm value in the long term. Using a sample of 714 listed companies, belonging to 15 European countries, and a panel data for the period between 1992 and 2011, our results show that continuing value cannot be regarded as the current value of a constant or growth perpetuity of a particular attribute of the company, but instead be according to a set of attributes such as free cash flow, net income, the average life expectancy of the company, investment in R&D, capabilities and quality of management, liquidity and financing structure.