Analysis of Transmission System Adequacy Considering the Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow

Power flow calculations are one of the most important tools for power system planning and operation. The need to account for uncertainties when performing power flow studies led, among others methods, to the development of the fuzzy power flow (FPF). This kind of models is especially interesting when a scarcity of information exists, which is a common situation in liberalized power systems (where generation and commercialization of electricity are market activities). In this framework, the symmetric/constrained fuzzy power flow (SFPF/CFPF) was proposed in order to avoid some of the problems of the original FPF model. The SFPF/CFPF models are suitable to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy “reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity” as defined, for instance, in the European Directive 2009/72/EC. In this work it is illustrated how the SFPF/CFPF may be used to evaluate the impact on the adequacy of a transmission system originated by specific investments on new network elements

Probabilistic Security Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow Models

In restructured power systems, generation and commercialization activities became market activities, while transmission and distribution activities continue as regulated monopolies. As a result, the adequacy of transmission network should be evaluated independent of generation system. After introducing the constrained fuzzy power flow (CFPF) as a suitable tool to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy 'reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity' (as stated, for instance, at European Directive 2009/72/EC), the aim is now showing how this approach can be used in conjunction with probabilistic criteria in security analysis. In classical security analysis models of power systems are considered the composite system (generation plus transmission). The state of system components is usually modeled with probabilities and loads (and generation) are modeled by crisp numbers, probability distributions or fuzzy numbers. In the case of CFPF the component’s failure of the transmission network have been investigated. In this framework, probabilistic methods are used for failures modeling of the transmission system components and possibility models are used to deal with 'reasonable demands'. The enhanced version of the CFPF model is applied to an illustrative case.

Capacity credit of microgeneration and microgrids

The recent development of the concept of microgrid (μGrid), associated to the emergent interest in microgeneration (μGen), has raised a number of challenges regarding the evaluation of the technical, economical and regulatory impacts of a high penetration of this kind of solutions in the power systems. In this paper, the topic of security of supply is addressed, aiming at evaluating the influence of μGen and μGrids in the medium- and long-term availability of generation to serve the forecasted load. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is used to evaluate this influence and to assess the capacity credit of those entities.

Avoided losses on LV networks as a result of microgeneration

In the scope of the discussions about microgeneration (and microgrids), the avoided electrical losses are often pointed out as an important value to be credited to those entities. Therefore, methods to assess the impact of microgeneration on losses must be developed in order to support the definition of a suitable regulatory framework for the economic integration of microgeneration on distribution networks. This paper presents an analytical method to quantify the value of avoided losses that microgeneration may produce on LV networks. Intervals of expected avoided losses are used to account for the variation of avoided losses due to the number, size and location of microgenerators, as well as for the kind of load distribution on LV networks.