The Terminal Value (TV) Performing in Firm Valuation: The Gap of Literature and Research Agenda

The uncertainty about the future of firms must be modeled and incorporated in the valuation of enterprises outside the explicit period of analysis, i.e., in the continuing or terminal value (TV). There is a multiplicity of factors that influence the TV of firms which are not being considered within current evaluation models. This aspect leads to the incurring of unrecoverable errors, thus leading to values of goodwill or bad will far away from the substantial value of intrinsic assets. As a consequence, the evaluation results will be presented markedly different from market values. There is no consensus in the scientific community about the method of computation of the TV as a forecast in an infinite horizon. The size of the terminal, or non-explicit period, assumed as infinite, is never called into question by scientific literature, or the probability of business bankruptcy. This paper aims to promote a study of the existing literature on the TV, to highlight the fragility of the evaluation models of companies that have been used by the academic community and by financial analysts, and to point out lines for future research to minimize these errors.

What Is a Firm’s Life Expectancy? Empirical Evidence in the Context of Portuguese Companies

It is a fact that the uncertainty about a firm’s future has to be measured and incorporated into a company’s valuation throughout the explicit analysis period – in the continuing or terminal value within valuation models. One of the concerns that can influence the continuing value of enterprises, which is not explicitly considered in traditional valuation models, is a firm’s average life expectancy. Although the literature has studied the life cycle of a firm, there is still a considerable lack of references on this topic. If we ignore the period during which a company has the ability to produce future cash flows, the valuations can fall into irreversible errors, leading to results markedly different from market values. This paper aims to provide a contribution in this area. Its main objective is to construct a mortality table for non-listed Portuguese enterprises, showing that the use of a terminal value through a mathematical expression of perpetuity of free cash flows is not adequate. We provide the use of an appropriate coefficient to perceive the number of years in which the company will continue to operate until its theoretical extinction. If well addressed regarding valuation models, this issue can be used to reduce or even to eliminate one of the main problems that cause distortions in contemporary enterprise valuation models: the premise of an enterprise’s unlimited existence in time. Besides studying the companies involved in it, from their existence to their demise, our study intends to push knowledge forward by providing a consistent life and mortality expectancy table for each age of the company, presenting models with an explicitly and different survival rate for each year. Moreover, we show that, after reaching a certain age, firms can reinvent their business, acquiring maturity and consequently postponing their mortality through an additional life period.