The effects of training on performance and performance-related states in individual elite athletes : a dynamic approach

There are difficulties undertaking controlled training studies with elite athletes. Thus, data from non-elite performers are often presented in scientific journals and subsequently used to guide general training principles. This information may not be transferable or specific enough to inform training practices in an individual elite athlete. However, the nature of athletic participation at elite levels provides the opportunity to collect training data, performance-related variables, and performance data of elite athletes over long periods. In this paper, we describe how dynamic linear models provide an opportunity to use these data to inform training. Data from an elite female triathlete collected over a 111-day training period were used to model the relationship between training and self-reported fatigue. The dynamic linear model analysis showed the independent effects of the three modes of triathlon training on fatigue, how these can change across time, and the possible influence of other unmeasured variables. This paper shows the potential for the use of dynamic linear models as an aid to planning training in elite athletes.