Does the Fed Model travel well?

ap Gwilym, Owain, et al., 'Does the Fed Model travel well?', Journal of Portfolio Management (2006) 33(1) pp.68-75 RAE2008

Equity markets are frequently valued on the basis of the relative yields of stocks and bonds. The most widely known of these comparisons is the Fed model; stocks are considered cheap when their earnings yield exceeds a long bond yield. Comparisons examining the performance of this metric and more traditional valuation measures such as earnings and dividend yields in six international markets are interesting. The Fed model turns out to be poor in explaining long-run returns, while it has some merit as a short-term tactical asset allocation tool.

Peer reviewed