Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in Australia: Challenges and policy implications

Changes in energy-related CO2 emissions aggregate intensity, total CO2 emissions and per-capita CO2 emissions in Australia are decomposed by using a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method for the period 1978-2010. Results indicate improvements in energy efficiency played a dominant role in the measured 17% reduction in CO2 emissions aggregate intensity in Australia over the period. Structural changes in the economy, such as changes in the relative importance of the services sector vis-à-vis manufacturing, have also played a major role in achieving this outcome. Results also suggest that, without these mitigating factors, income per capita and population effects could well have produced an increase in total emissions of more than 50% higher than actually occurred over the period. Perhaps most starkly, the results indicate that, without these mitigating factors, the growth in CO2 emissions per capita could have been over 150% higher than actually observed. Notwithstanding this, the study suggests that, for Australia to meet its Copenhagen commitment, the relative average per annum effectiveness of these mitigating factors during 2010-2020 probably needs to be almost three times what it was in the 2005-2010 period-a very daunting challenge indeed for Australia's policymakers.