Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Short-term effects of four tillage practices on soil physical properties, soil water potential, and maize yield

The area cultivated using conservation tillage has recently increased in central Spain. However, soil compaction and water retention with conservation tillage still remains a genuine concern for landowners in this region be- cause of its potential effect on the crop growth and yield. The aim of this research is to determine the short- term influences of four tillage treatments on soil physical properties. In the experiment, bulk density, cone index, soil water potential, soil temperature and maize (Zea mays L.) productivity have been measured. A field experiment was established in spring of 2013 on a loamy soil. The experiment compared four tillage methods (zero tillage, ZT; reservoir tillage, RT; minimum tillage, MT; and conventional tillage, CT). Soil bulk density and soil cone index were measured during maize growing season and at harvesting time. Furthermore, the soil water potential was monitored by using a wireless sensors network with sensors at 20 and 40 cm depths. Also, soil temperatures were registered at depths of 5 and 12 cm. Results indicated that there were significant differ- ences between soil bulk density and cone index of ZT method and those of RT, MT, and CT, during the growing season; although, this difference was not significant at the time of harvesting in some soil layers. Overall, in most soil layers, tillage practice affected bulk density and cone index in the order: ZT N RT N MT N CT. Regardless oftheentireobservationperiod,results exhibited that soils under ZT and RT treatments usually resulted in higher water potential and lower soil temperature than the other two treatments at both soil depths. In addition, clear differences in maize grain yield were observed between ZT and CT treatments, with a grain yield (up to 15.4%) increase with the CT treatment. On the other hand, no significant differences among (RT, MT, and CT) on maizeyieldwerefound.Inconclusion,the impact of soil compaction increase and soil temperature decrease,pro- duced by ZT treatment is a potential reason for maize yield reduction in this tillage method. We found that RT could be certainly a viable option for farmers incentral Spain,particularly when switching to conservation tillage from conventional tillage. This technique showed a moderate and positive effect on soil physical properties and increased maize yields compared to ZT and MT, and provides an opportunity to stabilize maize yields compared to CT.

Simulating potential growth and yield of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) with PALMSIM: Model description, evaluation and application.

Reducing the gap between water-limited potential yield and actual yield in oil palm production systems through intensification is seen as an important option for sustainably increasing palm oil production. Simulation models can play an important role in quantifying water-limited potential yield, and therefore the scope for intensification, but no oil palm model exists that is both simple enough and at the same time incorporates sufficient plant physiological knowledge to be generally applicable across sites with different growing conditions. The objectives of this study therefore were to develop a model (PALMSIM) that simulates, on a monthly time step, the potential growth of oil palm as determined by solar radiation and to evaluate model performance against measured oil palm yields under optimal water and nutrient management for a range of sites across Indonesia and Malaysia. The maximum observed yield in the field matches the corresponding simulated yield for dry bunch weight with a RMSE of 1.7 Mg ha?1 year?1 against an observed yield of 18.8 Mg ha?1. Sensitivity analysis showed that PALMSIM is robust: simulated changes in yield caused by modifying the parameters by 10% are comparable to other tree crop model evaluations. While we acknowledge that, depending on the soils and climatic environment, yields may be often water limited, we suggest a relatively simple physiological approach to simulate potential yield, which can be usefully applied to high rainfall environments and is considered as a first step in developing an oil palm model that also simulates water-limited potential yield. To illustrate the application possibil- ities of the model, PALMSIM was used to create a potential yield map for Indonesia and Malaysia by sim- ulating the growth and yield at a resolution of 0.1?. This map of potential yield is considered as a first step towards a decision support tool that can identify potentially productive, but at the moment degraded sites in Indonesia and Malaysia. ?

El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula

El Niño phenomenon is the leading mode of sea surface temperature interannual variability. It can affect weather patterns worldwide and therefore crop production. Crop models are useful tools for impact and predictability applications, allowing to obtain long time series of potential and attainable crop yield, unlike to available time series of observed crop yield for many countries. Using this tool, crop yield variability in a location of Iberia Peninsula (IP) has been previously studied, finding predictability from Pacific El Niño conditions. Nevertheless, the work has not been done for an extended area. The present work carries out an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The potential usefulness of this study is to apply the relationships found to improving crop forecasting in IP.

Potential yield and water-use effficiency benefits in sorghum from limited maximum transpiration rate

Limitations on maximum transpiration rates, which are commonly observed as midday stomatal closure, have been observed even under well-watered conditions. Such limitations may be caused by restricted hydraulic conductance in the plant or by limited supply of water to the plant from uptake by the roots. This behaviour would have the consequences of limiting photosynthetic rate, increasing transpiration efficiency, and conserving soil water. A key question is whether the conservation of water will be rewarded by sustained growth during seed fill and increased grain yield. This simulation analysis was undertaken to examine consequences on sorghum yield over several years when maximum transpiration rate was imposed in a model. Yields were simulated at four locations in the sorghum-growing area of Australia for 115 seasons at each location. Mean yield was increased slightly ( 5 - 7%) by setting maximum transpiration rate at 0.4 mm h(-1). However, the yield increase was mainly in the dry, low-yielding years in which growers may be more economically vulnerable. In years with yield less than similar to 450 g m(-2), the maximum transpiration rate trait resulted in yield increases of 9 - 13%. At higher yield levels, decreased yields were simulated. The yield responses to restricted maximum transpiration rate were associated with an increase in efficiency of water use. This arose because transpiration was reduced at times of the day when atmospheric demand was greatest. Depending on the risk attitude of growers, incorporation of a maximum transpiration rate trait in sorghum cultivars could be desirable to increase yields in dry years and improve water use efficiency and crop yield stability.

Potential to increase yield in lucerne (Medicago sativa subsp sativa) through introgression of Medicago sativa subsp falcata into Australian adapted material

The effect of interspecific heterosis in crosses between Medicago sativa subsp. sativa and M. sativa subsp. falcata was assessed. Three sativa and 3 falcata plants were crossed in a diallel design. Progeny dry matter yield and natural plant height were assessed in a replicated field experiment at Gatton, Queensland. Yield data were analysed using the method of residual maximum likelihood (REML) and Griffing's model 1. There were significant differences between the reciprocal, general combining ability (GCA), and specific combining ability (SCA) effects. As expected, S-1 populations were lower yielding than their respective intraspecific cross and falcata x falcata crosses were significantly lower yielding than sativa x sativa crosses. Some of the interspecific crosses indicated substantial SCA effects, yielding at least as well as the best sativa x sativa crosses. We have demonstrated the potential usefulness of unselected M. sativa subsp. falcata as a heterotic group in the improvement of yield in northern Australian adapted lucerne material, and discuss how it could be incorporated into future breeding to overcome the yield stagnation currently being experienced in Australian programs.

Study on yield function and plastic potential under non-associated flow for accurate earing prediction in cup drawing

Prediction of more than four ears in a cup drawing process can be successfully achieved by considering r-value and stress directionalities. Yld2004-18p based on associated flow rule and Yld2000-2D based on non-associated flow rule are the examples. The former, however, is more costly in terms of computational efficiency than the latter. In this work, an anisotropic constitutive model based on non-associated flow rule which combines two different functions, Hill (1948) and Yld2000-2d, is implemented to a user defined material model. The accuracy of the anisotropic directionalities (yield stresses and plastic strain ratios) is evaluated. Simulation of a mini-die cup drawing with a body stock alloy predicted eight ears, in good agreement with the experimental results. The use of Hill (1948) model for the yield function and Yld2000-2d for plastic potential under the framework of non-associated flow rule led to accurate prediction of up to eight ears at the lower computational cost.

Potential new sources of wheat curl mite resistance in wheat to prevent the spread of yield-reducing pathogens

The wheat curl mite (WCM), Aceria tosichella Keifer (Trombidiformes: Eriophyidae), is a major pest in cropping regions of the world and is recognised as the primary vector of several yield-reducing pathogens, primarily affecting wheat. Management of WCM is complicated due to several aspects of the mite's biology and ecology; however, commercially viable mite resistant wheat varieties may offer practical long-term management options. Unfortunately, mite populations have adapted to previously identified sources of resistance, highlighting the need for further sources of resistance and the value of stacking different resistances to give greater degrees and longevity of control. In this study we assessed the susceptibility of 42 wheat-derived genotypes to mite population growth using a new experimental method that overcomes methodological limitations of previous studies. Experimental wheat lines included a variety of wheat genotypes, related Triticeae species, wheat-alien chromosome amphiploids, and chromosome addition or substitution lines. From these we identify new promising sources of WCM resistance associated with Thinopyrum intermedium, Th. ponticum and Hordeum marinum chromosomes. More specifically we identify group 1J and 5J chromosomes of the L3 and L5 wheat-Th. intermedium addition lines as new sources of resistance that could be exploited to transfer resistance onto homoeologous wheat chromosomes. This study offers new methods for reliable in situ estimations of mite abundance on cereal plants, and new sources of WCM resistance that may assist management of WCM and associated viruses in wheat.

Multilineage differentiation potential of bone and cartilage cells derived from explant culture

To date, mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) from various tissues have been reported, but the yield and differentiation potential of different tissue-derived MSCs is still not clear. This study was undertaken in an attempt to investigate the multilineage stem cell potential of bone and cartilage explant cultures in comparison with bone marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). The results showed that the surface antigen expression of tissue-derived cells was consistent with that of mesenchymal stem cells, such as lacking the haematopoietic and common leukocyte markers (CD34, CD45) while expressing markers related to adhesion (CD29, CD166) and stem cells (CD90, CD105). The tissue-derived cells were able to differentiate into osteoblast, chondrocyte and adipocyte lineage pathways when stimulated in the appropriate differentiating conditions. However, compared with BMSCs, tissue-derived cells showed less capacity for multilineage differentiation when the level of differentiation was assessed in monolayer culture by analysing the expression of tissue-specific genes by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and histology. In high density pellet cultures, tissue-derived cells were able to differentiate into chondrocytes, expressing chondrocyte markers such as proteoglycans, type II collagen and aggrecan. Taken together, these results indicate that cells derived from tissue explant cultures reserved certain degree of differentiation properties of MSCs in vitro.

The transformation of banana with potential virus resistance genes

One approach to reducing the yield losses caused by banana viral diseases is the use of genetic engineering and pathogen-derived resistance strategies to generate resistant cultivars. The development of transgenic virus resistance requires an efficient banana transformation method, particularly for commercially important 'Cavendish' type cultivars such as 'Grand Nain'. Prior to this study, only two examples of the stable transformation of banana had been reported, both of which demonstrated the principle of transformation but did not characterise transgenic plants in terms of the efficiency at which individual transgenic lines were generated, relative activities of promoters in stably transformed plants, and the stability of transgene expression. The aim of this study was to develop more efficient transformation methods for banana, assess the activity of some commonly used and also novel promoters in stably transformed plants, and transform banana with genes that could potentially confer resistance to banana bunchy top nanovirus (BBTV) and banana bract mosaic potyvirus (BBrMV). A regeneration system using immature male flowers as the explant was established. The frequency of somatic embryogenesis in male flower explants was influenced by the season in which the inflorescences were harvested. Further, the media requirements of various banana cultivars in respect to the 2,4-D concentration in the initiation media also differed. Following the optimisation of these and other parameters, embryogenic cell suspensions of several banana (Musa spp.) cultivars including 'Grand Nain' (AAA), 'Williams' (AAA), 'SH-3362' (AA), 'Goldfinger' (AAAB) and 'Bluggoe' (ABB) were successfully generated. Highly efficient transformation methods were developed for both 'Bluggoe' and 'Grand Nain'; this is the first report of microprojectile bombardment transformation of the commercially important 'Grand Nain' cultivar. Following bombardment of embryogenic suspension cells, regeneration was monitored from single transfom1ed cells to whole plants using a reporter gene encoding the green fluorescent protein (gfp). Selection with kanamycin enabled the regeneration of a greater number of plants than with geneticin, while still preventing the regeneration of non-transformed plants. Southern hybridisation confirmed the neomycin phosphotransferase gene (npt II) was stably integrated into the banana genome and that multiple transgenic lines were derived from single bombardments. The activity, stability and tissue specificity of the cauliflower mosaic virus 358 (CaMV 35S) and maize polyubiquitin-1 (Ubi-1) promoters were examined. In stably transformed banana, the Ubi-1 promoter provided approximately six-fold higher p-glucuronidase (GUS) activity than the CaMV 35S promoter, and both promoters remained active in glasshouse grown plants for the six months they were observed. The intergenic regions ofBBTV DNA-I to -6 were isolated and fused to either the uidA (GUS) or gfjJ reporter genes to assess their promoter activities. BBTV promoter activity was detected in banana embryogenic cells using the gfp reporter gene. Promoters derived from BBTV DNA-4 and -5 generated the highest levels of transient activity, which were greater than that generated by the maize Ubi-1 promoter. In transgenic banana plants, the activity of the BBTV DNA-6 promoter (BT6.1) was restricted to the phloem of leaves and roots, stomata and root meristems. The activity of the BT6.1 promoter was enhanced by the inclusion of intron-containing fragments derived from the maize Ubi-1, rice Act-1, and sugarcane rbcS 5' untranslated regions in GUS reporter gene constructs. In transient assays in banana, the rice Act-1 and maize Ubi-1 introns provided the most significant enhancement, increasing expression levels 300-fold and 100-fold, respectively. The sugarcane rbcS intron increased expression about 10-fold. In stably transformed banana plants, the maize Ubi-1 intron enhanced BT6.1 promoter activity to levels similar to that of the CaMV 35S promoter, but did not appear to alter the tissue specificity of the promoter. Both 'Grand Nain' and 'Bluggoe' were transformed with constructs that could potentially confer resistance to BBTV and BBrMV, including constructs containing BBTV DNA-1 major and internal genes, BBTV DNA-5 gene, and the BBrMV coat protein-coding region all under the control of the Ubi-1 promoter, while the BT6 promoter was used to drive the npt II selectable marker gene. At least 30 transgenic lines containing each construct were identified and replicates of each line are currently being generated by micropropagation in preparation for virus challenge.

Cultivar-specific effects of pathogen testing on storage root yield of sweet potato, Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam.

The accumulation and perpetuation of viral pathogens over generations of clonal propagation in crop species such as sweet potato, Ipomoea batatas,inevitably result in a reduction in crop yield and quality. This study was conducted at Bundaberg, Australia to compare the productivity of field-derived and pathogen-tested (PT)clones of 14 sweet potato cultivars and the yield benefits of using healthy planting materials. The field-derived clonal materials were exposed to the endemic viruses, while the PT clones were subjected to thermotherapy and meristem-tip culture to eliminate viral pathogens. The plants were indexed for viruses using nitrocellulose membrane-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and graft-inoculations onto Ipomoea setosa. A net benefit of 38% in storage root yield was realised from using PT materials in this study.Conversely, in a similar study previously conducted at Kerevat, Papua New Guinea (PNG), a net deficit of 36% was realised. This reinforced our finding that the response to pathogen testing was cultivar dependent and that the PNG cultivars in these studies generally exhibited increased tolerance to the endemic viruses present at the respective trial sites as manifested in their lack of response from the use of PT clones. They may be useful sources for future resistance breeding efforts. Nonetheless, the potential economic gain from using PT stocks necessitates the use of pathogen testing on virus-susceptible commercial cultivars.

Expression of HIV-1 antigens in plants as potential subunit vaccines

Background Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) has infected more than 40 million people worldwide, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. The high prevalence of HIV-1 subtype C in southern Africa necessitates the development of cheap, effective vaccines. One means of production is the use of plants, for which a number of different techniques have been successfully developed. HIV-1 Pr55Gag is a promising HIV-1 vaccine candidate: we compared the expression of this and a truncated Gag (p17/p24) and the p24 capsid subunit in Nicotiana spp. using transgenic plants and transient expression via Agrobacterium tumefaciens and recombinant tobamovirus vectors. We also investigated the influence of subcellular localisation of recombinant protein to the chloroplast and the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) on protein yield. We partially purified a selected vaccine candidate and tested its stimulation of a humoral and cellular immune response in mice. Results Both transient and transgenic expression of the HIV antigens were successful, although expression of Pr55Gag was low in all systems; however, the Agrobacterium-mediated transient expression of p24 and p17/p24 yielded best, to more than 1 mg p24/kg fresh weight. Chloroplast targeted protein levels were highest in transient and transgenic expression of p24 and p17/p24. The transiently-expressed p17/p24 was not immunogenic in mice as a homologous vaccine, but it significantly boosted a humoral and T cell immune response primed by a gag DNA vaccine, pTHGagC. Conclusion Transient agroinfiltration was best for expression of all of the recombinant proteins tested, and p24 and p17/p24 were expressed at much higher levels than Pr55Gag. Our results highlight the usefulness of plastid signal peptides in enhancing the production of recombinant proteins meant for use as vaccines. The p17/p24 protein effectively boosted T cell and humoral responses in mice primed by the DNA vaccine pTHGagC, showing that this plant-produced protein has potential for use as a vaccine.