Evacuation modelling analysis within the operational research context: a combined approach for improving enclosure designs

Evacuation models have been playing an important function in the transition process from prescriptive fire safety codes to performance-based ones over the last three decades. In fact, such models became also useful tools in different tasks within fire safety engineering field, such as fire risks assessment and fire investigation. However, there are some difficulties in this process when using these models. For instance, during the evacuation modelling analysis, a common problem faced by fire safety engineers concerns the number of simulations which needs to be performed. In other terms, which fire designs (i.e., scenarios) should be investigated using the evacuation models? This type of question becomes more complex when specific issues such as the optimal positioning of exits within an arbitrarily structure needs to be addressed. Therefore, this paper presents a methodology which combines the use of evacuation models with numerical techniques used in the operational research field, such as Design of Experiments (DoE), Response Surface Models (RSM) and the numerical optimisation techniques. The methodology here presented is restricted to evacuation modelling analysis, nevertheless this same concept can be extended to fire modelling analysis.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model intercomparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide variety of complexities, including highly simplified nutrient-restoring schemes, nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFTs) based on their biogeochemical role (dynamic green ocean models) and ecosystem models that group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth system models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here we present an intercomparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth system model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the ocean general circulation model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high-resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low-resolution climate dynamics and high-complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry–climate interactions.

Aircraft Cost Modelling using the Genetic Causal Technique within a Systems Engineering Approach

The paper is primarily concerned with the modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost. The aim is to establish an integrated life cycle balanced design process through a systems engineering approach to interdisciplinary analysis and control. The cost modelling is achieved using the genetic causal approach that enforces product family categorisation and the subsequent generation of causal relationships between deterministic cost components and their design source. This utilises causal parametric cost drivers and the definition of the physical architecture from the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to identify product families. The paper presents applications to the overall aircraft design with a particular focus on the fuselage as a subsystem of the aircraft, including fuselage panels and localised detail, as well as engine nacelles. The higher level application to aircraft requirements and functional analysis is investigated and verified relative to life cycle design issues for the relationship between acquisition cost and Direct Operational Cost (DOC), for a range of both metal and composite subsystems. Maintenance is considered in some detail as an important contributor to DOC and life cycle cost. The lower level application to aircraft physical architecture is investigated and verified for the WBS of an engine nacelle, including a sequential build stage investigation of the materials, fabrication and assembly costs. The studies are then extended by investigating the acquisition cost of aircraft fuselages, including the recurring unit cost and the non-recurring design cost of the airframe sub-system. The systems costing methodology is facilitated by the genetic causal cost modeling technique as the latter is highly generic, interdisciplinary, flexible, multilevel and recursive in nature, and can be applied at the various analysis levels required of systems engineering. Therefore, the main contribution of paper is a methodology for applying systems engineering costing, supported by the genetic causal cost modeling approach, whether at a requirements, functional or physical level.

The distribution of Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica within southern Tanzania - constraints associated with the intermediate host

In East Africa, Fasciola gigantica is generally the causative agent of fasciolosis but there have been reports of F. hepatica in cattle from highland regions of Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Zaire. The topography of the Southern Highlands of Tanzania provides an environment where the climatic conditions exist for the sustenance of lymnaeid species capable of Supporting both Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica. Theoretically this would allow interaction between fasciolid species and the possible creation of hybrids. In this report we present molecular data confirming the existence of the snail, Lymnaea truncatula, at high altitude on the Kitulo Plateau of the Southern Highlands, Tanzania, along with morphometric and molecular data confirming the presence of F. hepatica in the corresponding area. At lower altitudes, where climatic conditions were unfavourable for the existence of L. truncatula, the presence of its sister species L. natalensis was confirmed by molecular data along with its preferred fasciolid parasite, F. gigantica. Analysis based on a 618 bp sequence of the 28S rRNA gene did not reveal the presence of hybrid fasciolids in our fluke samples.

SN 2010ay is a Luminous and Broad-lined Type Ic Supernova within a Low-metallicity Host Galaxy

We report on our serendipitous pre-discovery detection and follow-up observations of the broad-lined Type Ic supernova (SN Ic) 2010ay at z = 0.067 imaged by the Pan-STARRS1 3π survey just ~4 days after explosion. The supernova (SN) had a peak luminosity, MR ≈ -20.2 mag, significantly more luminous than known GRB-SNe and one of the most luminous SNe Ib/c ever discovered. The absorption velocity of SN 2010ay is v Si ≈ 19 × 103 km s-1 at ~40 days after explosion, 2-5 times higher than other broad-lined SNe and similar to the GRB-SN 2010bh at comparable epochs. Moreover, the velocity declines ~2 times slower than other SNe Ic-BL and GRB-SNe. Assuming that the optical emission is powered by radioactive decay, the peak magnitude implies the synthesis of an unusually large mass of 56Ni, M Ni = 0.9 M ⊙. Applying scaling relations to the light curve, we estimate a total ejecta mass, M ej ≈ 4.7 M ⊙, and total kinetic energy, EK ≈ 11 × 1051 erg. The ratio of M Ni to M ej is ~2 times as large for SN 2010ay as typical GRB-SNe and may suggest an additional energy reservoir. The metallicity (log (O/H)PP04 + 12 = 8.19) of the explosion site within the host galaxy places SN 2010ay in the low-metallicity regime populated by GRB-SNe, and ~0.5(0.2) dex lower than that typically measured for the host environments of normal (broad-lined) SNe Ic. We constrain any gamma-ray emission with E γ ~ 1048 erg. We therefore rule out the association of a relativistic outflow like those that accompanied SN 1998bw and traditional long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), but we place less-stringent constraints on a weak afterglow like that seen from XRF 060218. If this SN did not harbor a GRB, these observations challenge the importance of progenitor metallicity for the production of relativistic ejecta and suggest that other parameters also play a key role.

Geographic and host factors shape the evolution of a newly recognized subgroup within the U genogroup of the fish rhabdovirus IHNV

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015

Capacity and transformational development within the 2005 Canada Summer Games host society

Although capacity has been used in recent federal government accords and policies related to the voluntary and amateur sport sectors, there is little consensus over the meaning of the term. Consequently, the purpose of this qualitative case study was to explore the concept of organizational capacity within a temporary voluntary sport organization. Specifically, the nature of organizational capacity was examined within the case of the Volunteers Division of the 2005 Canada Summer Games (CSG) Host Society. Data were collected from executive planning and middle management CSG volunteers through the use of a variety of methods: verbal journals, interviews, observations, documents and a focus group. Findings indicated several challenges associated with the volunteer management model utilized by the host society, varying levels of importance among six elements of capacity, and key aspects of the relationship between organizational capacity and transformational development. Implications focused upon the importance of highlighting individuals rather than the organizational as a whole in order to build capacity, and utilizing a brain or hybrid brain-machine organizational form to enhance capacity. Recommendations are provided for both the Canada Games Council and Canada Games host societies.

Modelling risk perception and trust in food safety information within the theory of planned behaviour

This study suggests a statistical strategy for explaining how food purchasing intentions are influenced by different levels of risk perception and trust in food safety information. The modelling process is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and includes trust and risk perception as additional explanatory factors. Interaction and endogeneity across these determinants is explored through a system of simultaneous equations, while the SPARTA equation is estimated through an ordered probit model. Furthermore, parameters are allowed to vary as a function of socio-demographic variables. The application explores chicken purchasing intentions both in a standard situation and conditional to an hypothetical salmonella scare. Data were collected through a nationally representative UK wide survey of 533 UK respondents in face-to-face, in-home interviews. Empirical findings show that interactions exist among the determinants of planned behaviour and socio-demographic variables improve the model's performance. Attitudes emerge as the key determinant of intention to purchase chicken, while trust in food safety information provided by media reduces the likelihood to purchase. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genotypic and phenotypic diversity of a baculovirus population within an individual insect host

It is becoming increasingly apparent that many pathogen populations, including those of insects, show high levels of genotypic variation. Baculoviruses are known to be highly variable, with isolates collected from the same species in different geographical locations frequently showing genetic variation and differences in their biology. More recent Studies at smaller scales have also shown that virus DNA profiles from individual larvae can show polymorphisms within and between populations of the same species. Here, we investigate the genotypic and phenotypic variation of an insect baculovirus infection within a single insect host. Twenty four genotypically distinct nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) variants were isolated from an individual pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, caterpillar by in vivo cloning techniques. No variant appeared to be dominant in the population. The Pafl NPV variants have been mapped using three restriction endonucleases and shown to contain three hypervariable regions containing insertions of 70-750 bp. Comparison of seven of these variants in an alternative host, Mamestra brassicae, demonstrated that the variants differed significantly in both pathogenicity and speed of kill. The generation and maintenance of pathogen heterogeneity are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.