RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.

Scaling limits of a model for selection at two scales

The dynamics of a population undergoing selection is a central topic in evolutionary biology. This question is particularly intriguing in the case where selective forces act in opposing directions at two population scales. For example, a fast-replicating virus strain outcompetes slower-replicating strains at the within-host scale. However, if the fast-replicating strain causes host morbidity and is less frequently transmitted, it can be outcompeted by slower-replicating strains at the between-host scale. Here we consider a stochastic ball-and-urn process which models this type of phenomenon. We prove the weak convergence of this process under two natural scalings. The first scaling leads to a deterministic nonlinear integro-partial differential equation on the interval $[0,1]$ with dependence on a single parameter, $\lambda$. We show that the fixed points of this differential equation are Beta distributions and that their stability depends on $\lambda$ and the behavior of the initial data around $1$. The second scaling leads to a measure-valued Fleming-Viot process, an infinite dimensional stochastic process that is frequently associated with a population genetics.

Temperature and the synchrony of plant-insect interactions

Increasing temperatures resulting from climate change have within recent years been shown to advance phenological events in a large number of species worldwide. Species can differ in their response to increasing temperatures, and understanding the mechanisms that determine the response is therefore of great importance in order to understand and predict how a warming climate can influence both individual species, but also their interactions with each other and the environment. Understanding the mechanisms behind responses to increasing temperatures are however largely unexplored. The selected study system consisting of host plant species of the Brassicaceae family and their herbivore Anthocharis cardamines, is assumed to be especially vulnerable to climatic variations. Through the use of this study system, the aim of this thesis is to study differences in the effect of temperature on development to start of flowering within host plant species from different latitudinal regions (study I), and among host plant species (study II). We also investigate whether different developmental phases leading up to flowering differ in sensitivity to temperature (study II), and if small-scale climatic variation in spring temperature influence flowering phenology and interactions with A. cardamines (study III). Finally, we investigate if differences in the timing of A. cardamines relative to its host plants influence host species use and the selection of host individuals differing in phenology within populations (study IV). Our results showed that thermal reaction norms differ among regions along a latitudinal gradient, with the host plant species showing a mixture of co-, counter- and mixed gradient patterns (study I). We also showed that observed differences in the host plant species order of flowering among regions and years might be caused by both differences in the distribution of warm days during development and differences in the sensitivity to temperature in different phases of development (study II). In addition, we showed that small-scale variations in temperature led to variation in flowering phenology among and within populations of C. pratensis, impacting the interactions with the butterfly herbivore A. cardamines. Another result was that the less the mean plant development stage of a given plant species in the field deviated from the stage preferred by the butterfly for oviposition, the more used was the species as a host by the butterfly (study IV). Finally, we showed that the later seasonal appearance of the butterflies relative to their host plants, the higher butterfly preference for host plant individuals with a later phenology, corresponding to a preference for host plants in earlier development stages (study IV). For our study system, this thesis suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the interactions between host plants and herbivore, but that differences in phenology among host plants combined with changes in host species use of the herbivore might buffer the herbivore against negative effects of climate change. Our work highlights the need to understand the mechanisms behind differences in the responses of developmental rates to temperature between interacting species, as well as the need to account for differences in temperature response for interacting organisms from different latitudinal origins and during different developmental phases in order to understand and predict the consequences of climate change. 

Colonization of Onions by Endophytic Fungi and Their Impacts on the Biology of Thrips tabaci

Endophytic fungi, which live within host plant tissues without causing any visible symptom of infection, are important mutualists that mediate plant-herbivore interactions. Thrips tabaci (Lindeman) is one of the key pests of onion, Allium cepa L., an economically important agricultural crop cultivated worldwide. However, information on endophyte colonization of onions, and their impacts on the biology of thrips feeding on them, is lacking. We tested the colonization of onion plants by selected fungal endophyte isolates using two inoculation methods. The effects of inoculated endophytes on T. tabaci infesting onion were also examined. Seven fungal endophytes used in our study were able to colonize onion plants either by the seed or seedling inoculation methods. Seed inoculation resulted in 1.47 times higher mean percentage post-inoculation recovery of all the endophytes tested as compared to seedling inoculation. Fewer thrips were observed on plants inoculated with Clonostachys rosea ICIPE 707, Trichoderma asperellum M2RT4, Trichoderma atroviride ICIPE 710, Trichoderma harzianum 709, Hypocrea lixii F3ST1 and Fusarium sp. ICIPE 712 isolates as compared to those inoculated with Fusarium sp. ICIPE 717 and the control treatments. Onion plants colonized by C. rosea ICIPE 707, T. asperellum M2RT4, T. atroviride ICIPE 710 and H. lixii F3ST1 had significantly lower feeding punctures as compared to the other treatments. Among the isolates tested, the lowest numbers of eggs were laid by T. tabaci on H. lixii F3ST1 and C. rosea ICIPE 707 inoculated plants. These results extend the knowledge on colonization of onions by fungal endophytes and their effects on Thrips tabaci.

Advances in gastropod immunity from the study of the interaction between the snail Biomphalaria glabrata and its parasites: A review of research progress over the last decade

This review summarizes the research progress made over the past decade in the field of gastropod immunity resulting from investigations of the interaction between the snail Biomphalaria glabrata and its trematode parasites. A combination of integrated approaches, including cellular, genetic and comparative molecular and proteomic approaches have revealed novel molecular components involved in mediating Biomphalaria immune responses that provide insights into the nature of host-parasite compatibility and the mechanisms involved in parasite recognition and killing. The current overview emphasizes that the interaction between B. glabrata and its trematode parasites involves a complex molecular crosstalk between numerous antigens, immune receptors, effectors and anti-effector systems that are highly diverse structurally and extremely variable in expression between and within host and parasite populations. Ultimately, integration of these molecular signals will determine the outcome of a specific interaction between a B. glabrata individual and its interacting trematodes. Understanding these complex molecular interactions and identifying key factors that may be targeted to impairment of schistosome development in the snail host is crucial to generating new alternative schistosomiasis control strategies.

Are migratory animals superspreaders of infection?

Migratory animals are simultaneously challenged by the physiological demands of long-distance movements and the need to avoid natural enemies including parasites and pathogens. The potential for animal migrations to disperse pathogens across large geographic areas has prompted a growing body of research investigating the interactions between migration and infection. However, the phenomenon of animal migration is yet to be incorporated into broader theories in disease ecology. Because migrations may expose animals to a greater number and diversity of pathogens, increase contact rates between hosts, and render them more susceptible to infection via changes to immune function, migration has the potential to generate both "superspreader species" and infection "hotspots". However, migration has also been shown to reduce transmission in some species, by facilitating parasite avoidance ("migratory escape") and weeding out infected individuals ("migratory culling"). This symposium was convened in an effort to characterize more broadly the role that animal migrations play in the dynamics of infectious disease, by integrating a range of approaches and scales across host taxa. We began with questions related to within-host processes, focusing on the consequences of nutritional constraints and strenuous movement for individual immune capability, and of parasite infection for movement capacity. We then scaled-up to between-host processes to identify what types, distances, or patterns of host movements are associated with the spread of infectious agents. Finally, we discussed landscape-scale relationships between migration and infectious disease, and how these may be altered as a result of anthropogenic changes to climate and land use. We are just beginning to scratch the surface of the interactions between infection and animal migrations; yet, with so many migrations now under threat, there is an urgent need to develop a holistic understanding of the potential for migrations to both increase and reduce infection risk.

Modelling Apoptotic cell clearance within the atherosclerotic plaque

The aged population have an increased susceptibility to infection, therefore function of the innate immune system may be impaired as we age. Macrophages, and their precursors monocytes, play an important role in host defence in the form of phagocytosis, and also link the innate and adaptive immune system via antigen presentation. Classically-activated 'M1' macrophages are pro-inflammatory, which can be induced by encountering pathogenic material or pro-inflammatory mediators. Alternatively activated 'M2' macrophages have a largely reparative role, including clearance of apoptotic bodies and debris from tissues. Despite some innate immune receptors being implicated in the clearance of apoptotic cells, the process has been observed to have a dominant anti-inflammatory phenotype with cytokines such as IL-10 and TGF-ß being implicated. The atherosclerotic plaque contains recruited monocytes and macrophages, and is a highly inflammatory environment despite high levels of apoptosis. At these sites, monocytes differentiate into macrophages and gorge on lipoproteins, resulting in formation of 'foam cells' which then undergo apoptosis, recruiting further monocytes. This project seeks to understand why, given high levels of apoptosis, the plaque is a pro-inflammatory environment. This phenomenon may be the result of the aged environment or an inability of foam cells to elicit an anti-inflammatory effect in response to dying cells. Here we demonstrate that lipoprotein treatment of macrophages in culture results in reduced capacity to clear apoptotic cells. The effect of lipoprotein treatment on apoptotic cell-mediated immune modulation of macrophage function is currently under study.

Within-session variability modelling for factor analysis speaker verification

This work presents an extended Joint Factor Analysis model including explicit modelling of unwanted within-session variability. The goals of the proposed extended JFA model are to improve verification performance with short utterances by compensating for the effects of limited or imbalanced phonetic coverage, and to produce a flexible JFA model that is effective over a wide range of utterance lengths without adjusting model parameters such as retraining session subspaces. Experimental results on the 2006 NIST SRE corpus demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed model by providing competitive results over a wide range of utterance lengths without retraining and also yielding modest improvements in a number of conditions over current state-of-the-art.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Mathematical modelling of tumour-induced angiogenesis

The growth of solid tumours beyond a critical size is dependent upon angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels from an existing vasculature. Tumours may remain dormant at microscopic sizes for some years before switching to a mode in which growth of a supportive vasculature is initiated. The new blood vessels supply nutrients, oxygen, and access to routes by which tumour cells may travel to other sites within the host (metastasize). In recent decades an abundance of biological research has focused on tumour-induced angiogenesis in the hope that treatments targeted at the vasculature may result in a stabilisation or regression of the disease: a tantalizing prospect. The complex and fascinating process of angiogenesis has also attracted the interest of researchers in the field of mathematical biology, a discipline that is, for mathematics, relatively new. The challenge in mathematical biology is to produce a model that captures the essential elements and critical dependencies of a biological system. Such a model may ultimately be used as a predictive tool. In this thesis we examine a number of aspects of tumour-induced angiogenesis, focusing on growth of the neovasculature external to the tumour. Firstly we present a one-dimensional continuum model of tumour-induced angiogenesis in which elements of the immune system or other tumour-cytotoxins are delivered via the newly formed vessels. This model, based on observations from experiments by Judah Folkman et al., is able to show regression of the tumour for some parameter regimes. The modelling highlights a number of interesting aspects of the process that may be characterised further in the laboratory. The next model we present examines the initiation positions of blood vessel sprouts on an existing vessel, in a two-dimensional domain. This model hypothesises that a simple feedback inhibition mechanism may be used to describe the spacing of these sprouts with the inhibitor being produced by breakdown of the existing vessel's basement membrane. Finally, we have developed a stochastic model of blood vessel growth and anastomosis in three dimensions. The model has been implemented in C++, includes an openGL interface, and uses a novel algorithm for calculating proximity of the line segments representing a growing vessel. This choice of programming language and graphics interface allows for near-simultaneous calculation and visualisation of blood vessel networks using a contemporary personal computer. In addition the visualised results may be transformed interactively, and drop-down menus facilitate changes in the parameter values. Visualisation of results is of vital importance in the communication of mathematical information to a wide audience, and we aim to incorporate this philosophy in the thesis. As biological research further uncovers the intriguing processes involved in tumourinduced angiogenesis, we conclude with a comment from mathematical biologist Jim Murray, Mathematical biology is : : : the most exciting modern application of mathematics.

Three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis of water chemistry data to analyse and visualise aquifer structure and groundwater composition in the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand

Concerns regarding groundwater contamination with nitrate and the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources have prompted the development of a multi-layered three dimensional (3D) geological model to characterise the aquifer geometry of the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand. The 3D geological model which consists of eight litho-stratigraphic units has been subsequently used to synthesise hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data for different aquifers in an approach that aims to demonstrate how integration of water chemistry data within the physical framework of a 3D geological model can help to better understand and conceptualise groundwater systems in complex geological settings. Multivariate statistical techniques(e.g. Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) were applied to groundwater chemistry data to identify hydrochemical facies which are characteristic of distinct evolutionary pathways and a common hydrologic history of groundwaters. Principal Component Analysis on hydrochemical data demonstrated that natural water-rock interactions, redox potential and human agricultural impact are the key controls of groundwater quality in the Wairau Plain. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis revealed distinct hydrochemical water quality groups in the Wairau Plain groundwater system. Visualisation of the results of the multivariate statistical analyses and distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations in the context of aquifer lithology highlighted the link between groundwater chemistry and the lithology of host aquifers. The methodology followed in this study can be applied in a variety of hydrogeological settings to synthesise geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical data and present them in a format readily understood by a wide range of stakeholders. This enables a more efficient communication of the results of scientific studies to the wider community.

Persistence of multiple genetic lineages within intra-host populations of Ross River virus

We examined the structure and extent of genetic diversity in intrahost populations of Ross River virus (RRV) in samples from six human patients, focusing on the nonstructural (nsP3) and structural (E2) protein genes. Strikingly, although the samples were collected from contrasting ecological settings 3,000 kilometers apart in Australia, we observed multiple viral lineages in four of the six individuals, which is indicative of widespread mixed infections. In addition, a comparison with previously published RRV sequences revealed that these distinct lineages have been in circulation for at least 5 years, and we were able to document their long-term persistence over extensive geographical distances

Linking three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis to define groundwater chemistry baseline and identify inter-aquifer connectivity within the Clarence-Moreton Basin, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Clarence-Moreton Basin (CMB) covers approximately 26000 km2 and is the only sub-basin of the Great Artesian Basin (GAB) in which there is flow to both the south-west and the east, although flow to the south-west is predominant. In many parts of the basin, including catchments of the Bremer, Logan and upper Condamine Rivers in southeast Queensland, the Walloon Coal Measures are under exploration for Coal Seam Gas (CSG). In order to assess spatial variations in groundwater flow and hydrochemistry at a basin-wide scale, a 3D hydrogeological model of the Queensland section of the CMB has been developed using GoCAD modelling software. Prior to any large-scale CSG extraction, it is essential to understand the existing hydrochemical character of the different aquifers and to establish any potential linkage. To effectively use the large amount of water chemistry data existing for assessment of hydrochemical evolution within the different lithostratigraphic units, multivariate statistical techniques were employed.