Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Combining electrospun scaffolds with electrosprayed hydrogels leads to three-dimensional cellularization of hybrid constructs

A common problem in the design of tissue engineered scaffolds using electrospun scaffolds is the poor cellular infiltration into the structure. To tackle this issue, three approaches to scaffold design using electrospinning were investigated: selective leaching of a water-soluble fiber phase (poly ethylene oxide (PEO) or gelatin), the use of micron-sized fibers as the scaffold, and a combination of micron-sized fibers with codeposition of a hyaluronic acid-derivative hydrogel, Heprasil. These designs were achieved by modifying a conventional electrospinning system with two charged capillaries and a rotating mandrel collector. Three types of scaffolds were fabricated: medical grade poly(epsilon-caprolactone)/collagen (mPCL/Col) cospun with PEO or gelatin, mPCL/Col meshes with micron-sized fibers, and mPCL/Col microfibers cosprayed with Heprasil. All three scaffold types supported attachment and proliferation of human fetal osteoblasts. However, selective leaching only marginally improved cellular infiltration when compared to meshes obtained by conventional electrospinning. Better cell penetration was seen in mPCL/Col microfibers, and this effect was more pronounced when Heprasil regions were present in the structure. Thus, such techniques could be further exploited for the design of cell permeable fibrous meshes for tissue engineering applications.

Changing musical emotion : a computational rule system for modifying score and performance

When communicating emotion in music, composers and performers encode their expressive intentions through the control of basic musical features such as: pitch, loudness, timbre, mode, and articulation. The extent to which emotion can be controlled through the systematic manipulation of these features has not been fully examined. In this paper we present CMERS, a Computational Music Emotion Rule System for the control of perceived musical emotion that modifies features at the levels of score and performance in real-time. CMERS performance was evaluated in two rounds of perceptual testing. In experiment I, 20 participants continuously rated the perceived emotion of 15 music samples generated by CMERS. Three music works, each with five emotional variations were used (normal, happy, sad, angry, and tender). The intended emotion by CMERS was correctly identified 78% of the time, with significant shifts in valence and arousal also recorded, regardless of the works’ original emotion.

The impact of delayed blood centrifuging, choice of collection tube, and type of assay on 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations

Studies have examined the associations between cancers and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], but little is known about the impact of different laboratory practices on 25(OH)D concentrations. We examined the potential impact of delayed blood centrifuging, choice of collection tube, and type of assay on 25(OH)D concentrations. Blood samples from 20 healthy volunteers underwent alternative laboratory procedures: four centrifuging times (2, 24, 72, and 96 h after blood draw); three types of collection tubes (red top serum tube, two different plasma anticoagulant tubes containing heparin or EDTA); and two types of assays (DiaSorin radioimmunoassay [RIA] and chemiluminescence immunoassay [CLIA/LIAISON®]). Log-transformed 25(OH)D concentrations were analyzed using the generalized estimating equations (GEE) linear regression models. We found no difference in 25(OH)D concentrations by centrifuging times or type of assay. There was some indication of a difference in 25(OH)D concentrations by tube type in CLIA/LIAISON®-assayed samples, with concentrations in heparinized plasma (geometric mean, 16.1 ng ml−1) higher than those in serum (geometric mean, 15.3 ng ml−1) (p = 0.01), but the difference was significant only after substantial centrifuging delays (96 h). Our study suggests no necessity for requiring immediate processing of blood samples after collection or for the choice of a tube type or assay.