Characterizing multi-agent team behavior from partial team tracings : evidence from the English Premier League

Real-world AI systems have been recently deployed which can automatically analyze the plan and tactics of tennis players. As the game-state is updated regularly at short intervals (i.e. point-level), a library of successful and unsuccessful plans of a player can be learnt over time. Given the relative strengths and weaknesses of a player’s plans, a set of proven plans or tactics from the library that characterize a player can be identified. For low-scoring, continuous team sports like soccer, such analysis for multi-agent teams does not exist as the game is not segmented into “discretized” plays (i.e. plans), making it difficult to obtain a library that characterizes a team’s behavior. Additionally, as player tracking data is costly and difficult to obtain, we only have partial team tracings in the form of ball actions which makes this problem even more difficult. In this paper, we propose a method to overcome these issues by representing team behavior via play-segments, which are spatio-temporal descriptions of ball movement over fixed windows of time. Using these representations we can characterize team behavior from entropy maps, which give a measure of predictability of team behaviors across the field. We show the efficacy and applicability of our method on the 2010-2011 English Premier League soccer data.

Feasibility of agent-based modelling of articular cartilage including a conceptual representation of its structure

Articular cartilage is a complex structure with an architecture in which fluid-swollen proteoglycans constrained within a 3D network of collagen fibrils. Because of the complexity of the cartilage structure, the relationship between its mechanical behaviours at the macroscale level and its components at the micro-scale level are not completely understood. The research objective in this thesis is to create a new model of articular cartilage that can be used to simulate and obtain insight into the micro-macro-interaction and mechanisms underlying its mechanical responses during physiological function. The new model of articular cartilage has two characteristics, namely: i) not use fibre-reinforced composite material idealization ii) Provide a framework for that it does probing the micro mechanism of the fluid-solid interaction underlying the deformation of articular cartilage using simple rules of repartition instead of constitutive / physical laws and intuitive curve-fitting. Even though there are various microstructural and mechanical behaviours that can be studied, the scope of this thesis is limited to osmotic pressure formation and distribution and their influence on cartilage fluid diffusion and percolation, which in turn governs the deformation of the compression-loaded tissue. The study can be divided into two stages. In the first stage, the distributions and concentrations of proteoglycans, collagen and water were investigated using histological protocols. Based on this, the structure of cartilage was conceptualised as microscopic osmotic units that consist of these constituents that were distributed according to histological results. These units were repeated three-dimensionally to form the structural model of articular cartilage. In the second stage, cellular automata were incorporated into the resulting matrix (lattice) to simulate the osmotic pressure of the fluid and the movement of water within and out of the matrix; following the osmotic pressure gradient in accordance with the chosen rule of repartition of the pressure. The outcome of this study is the new model of articular cartilage that can be used to simulate and study the micromechanical behaviours of cartilage under different conditions of health and loading. These behaviours are illuminated at the microscale level using the socalled neighbourhood rules developed in the thesis in accordance with the typical requirements of cellular automata modelling. Using these rules and relevant Boundary Conditions to simulate pressure distribution and related fluid motion produced significant results that provided the following insight into the relationships between osmotic pressure gradient and associated fluid micromovement, and the deformation of the matrix. For example, it could be concluded that: 1. It is possible to model articular cartilage with the agent-based model of cellular automata and the Margolus neighbourhood rule. 2. The concept of 3D inter connected osmotic units is a viable structural model for the extracellular matrix of articular cartilage. 3. Different rules of osmotic pressure advection lead to different patterns of deformation in the cartilage matrix, enabling an insight into how this micromechanism influences macromechanical deformation. 4. When features such as transition coefficient were changed, permeability (representing change) is altered due to the change in concentrations of collagen, proteoglycans (i.e. degenerative conditions), the deformation process is impacted. 5. The boundary conditions also influence the relationship between osmotic pressure gradient and fluid movement at the micro-scale level. The outcomes are important to cartilage research since we can use these to study the microscale damage in the cartilage matrix. From this, we are able to monitor related diseases and their progression leading to potential insight into drug-cartilage interaction for treatment. This innovative model is an incremental progress on attempts at creating further computational modelling approaches to cartilage research and other fluid-saturated tissues and material systems.

Attitudes, Ideologies and Self-Organisation : Information Load Minimisation in Multi-Agent Decision Making

Sophisticated models of human social behaviour are fast becoming highly desirable in an increasingly complex and interrelated world. Here, we propose that rather than taking established theories from the physical sciences and naively mapping them into the social world, the advanced concepts and theories of social psychology should be taken as a starting point, and used to develop a new modelling methodology. In order to illustrate how such an approach might be carried out, we attempt to model the low elaboration attitude changes of a society of agents in an evolving social context. We propose a geometric model of an agent in context, where individual agent attitudes are seen to self-organise to form ideologies, which then serve to guide further agent-based attitude changes. A computational implementation of the model is shown to exhibit a number of interesting phenomena, including a tendency for a measure of the entropy in the system to decrease, and a potential for externally guiding a population of agents towards a new desired ideology.

Quantifying spatial structure in experimental observations and agent-based simulations using pair-correlation functions

We define a pair-correlation function that can be used to characterize spatiotemporal patterning in experimental images and snapshots from discrete simulations. Unlike previous pair-correlation functions, the pair-correlation functions developed here depend on the location and size of objects. The pair-correlation function can be used to indicate complete spatial randomness, aggregation or segregation over a range of length scales, and quantifies spatial structures such as the shape, size and distribution of clusters. Comparing pair-correlation data for various experimental and simulation images illustrates their potential use as a summary statistic for calibrating discrete models of various physical processes.

Agent-based model of passenger flows in airport terminals

Passenger flow studies in airport terminals have shown consistent statistical relationships between airport spatial layout and pedestrian movement, facilitating prediction of movement from terminal designs. However, these studies are done at an aggregate level and do not incorporate how individual passengers make decisions at a microscopic level. Therefore, they do not explain the formation of complex movement flows. In addition, existing models mostly focus on standard airport processing procedures such as immigration and security, but seldom consider discretionary activities of passengers, and thus are not able to truly describe the full range of passenger flows within airport terminals. As the route-choice decision-making of passengers involves many uncertain factors within the airport terminals, the mechanisms to fulfill the capacity of managing the route-choice have proven difficult to acquire and quantify. Could the study of cognitive factors of passengers (i.e. human mental preferences of deciding which on-airport facility to use) be useful to tackle these issues? Assuming the movement in virtual simulated environments can be analogous to movement in real environments, passenger behaviour dynamics can be similar to those generated in virtual experiments. Three levels of dynamics have been devised for motion control: the localised field, tactical level, and strategic level. A localised field refers to basic motion capabilities, such as walking speed, direction and avoidance of obstacles. The other two fields represent cognitive route-choice decision-making. This research views passenger flow problems via a "bottom-up approach", regarding individual passengers as independent intelligent agents who can behave autonomously and are able to interact with others and the ambient environment. In this regard, passenger flow formation becomes an emergent phenomenon of large numbers of passengers interacting with others. In the thesis, first, the passenger flow in airport terminals was investigated. Discretionary activities of passengers were integrated with standard processing procedures in the research. The localised field for passenger motion dynamics was constructed by a devised force-based model. Next, advanced traits of passengers (such as their desire to shop, their comfort with technology and their willingness to ask for assistance) were formulated to facilitate tactical route-choice decision-making. The traits consist of quantified measures of mental preferences of passengers when they travel through airport terminals. Each category of the traits indicates a decision which passengers may take. They were inferred through a Bayesian network model by analysing the probabilities based on currently available data. Route-choice decision-making was finalised by calculating corresponding utility results based on those probabilities observed. Three sorts of simulation outcomes were generated: namely, queuing length before checkpoints, average dwell time of passengers at service facilities, and instantaneous space utilisation. Queuing length reflects the number of passengers who are in a queue. Long queues no doubt cause significant delay in processing procedures. The dwell time of each passenger agent at the service facilities were recorded. The overall dwell time of passenger agents at typical facility areas were analysed so as to demonstrate portions of utilisation in the temporal aspect. For the spatial aspect, the number of passenger agents who were dwelling within specific terminal areas can be used to estimate service rates. All outcomes demonstrated specific results by typical simulated passenger flows. They directly reflect terminal capacity. The simulation results strongly suggest that integrating discretionary activities of passengers makes the passenger flows more intuitive, observing probabilities of mental preferences by inferring advanced traits make up an approach capable of carrying out tactical route-choice decision-making. On the whole, the research studied passenger flows in airport terminals by an agent-based model, which investigated individual characteristics of passengers and their impact on psychological route-choice decisions of passengers. Finally, intuitive passenger flows in airport terminals were able to be realised in simulation.

MODAM: A MODular Agent-based Modelling framework

Designing the smart grid requires combining varied models. As their number increases, so does the complexity of the software. Having a well thought architecture for the software then becomes crucial. This paper presents MODAM, a framework designed to combine agent-based models in a flexible and extensible manner, using well known software engineering design solutions (OSGi specification [1] and Eclipse plugins [2]). Details on how to build a modular agent-based model for the smart grid are given in this paper, illustrated by an example for a small network.

The formation of gold nanoparticles using hydroquinone as a reducing agent through a localized pH change upon addition of NaOH to a solution of HAuCl4

We demonstrate a rapid synthesis of gold nanoparticles using hydroquinone as a reducing agent under acidic conditions without the need for precursor seed particles. The nanoparticle formation process is facilitated by the addition of NaOH to a solution containing HAuCl4 and hydroquinone to locally change the pH; this enhances the reducing capability of hydroquinone to form gold nucleation centres, after which further growth of gold can take place through an autocatalytic mechanism. The stability of the nanoparticles is highly dependent on the initial solution pH, and both the concentration of added NaOH and hydroquinone present in solution. The gold nanoparticles were characterized by UV–visible spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy, dynamic light scattering, and zeta potential measurements. It was found that under optimal conditions that stable aqueous suspensions of 20 nm diameter nanoparticles can be achieved where benzoquinone, the oxidized product of hydroquinone, acts as a capping agent preventing nanoparticles aggregation.

Single-agent versus combination chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer and a performance status of 2 : prognostic factors and treatment selection based on two large randomized clinical trials

Purpose: Data from two randomized phase III trials were analyzed to evaluate prognostic factors and treatment selection in the first-line management of advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients with performance status (PS) 2. Patients and Methods: Patients randomized to combination chemotherapy (carboplatin and paclitaxel) in one trial and single-agent therapy (gemcitabine or vinorelbine) in the second were included in these analyses. Both studies had identical eligibility criteria and were conducted simultaneously. Comparison of efficacy and safety was performed between the two cohorts. A regression analysis identified prognostic factors and subgroups of patients that may benefit from combination or single-agent therapy. Results: Two hundred one patients were treated with combination and 190 with single-agent therapy. Objective responses were 37 and 15%, respectively. Median time to progression was 4.6 months in the combination arm and 3.5 months in the single-agent arm (p < 0.001). Median survival imes were 8.0 and 6.6 months, and 1-year survival rates were 31 and 26%, respectively. Albumin <3.5 g, extrathoracic metastases, lactate dehydrogenase ≥200 IU, and 2 comorbid conditions predicted outcome. Patients with 0-2 risk factors had similar outcomes independent of treatment, whereas patients with 3-4 factors had a nonsignificant improvement in median survival with combination chemotherapy. Conclusion: Our results show that PS2 non-small cell lung cancer patients are a heterogeneous group who have significantly different outcomes. Patients treated with first-line combination chemotherapy had a higher response and longer time to progression, whereas overall survival did not appear significantly different. A prognostic model may be helpful in selecting PS 2 patients for either treatment strategy. © 2009 by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

The poor penetration of topical burn agent through burn eschar on a porcine burn model [Letter to the Editor]

We read with great interest the article entitled “Enhancing drugs absorption through third-degree burn wound eschar” by Manafi et al. [1]. The authors addressed the concern of poor penetration of topically applied anti-microbials through burn eschar and detailed the improvement of this penetration by penetration enhancers. Here, we would like to report the poor penetration of a topical agent into the viable deep dermal layer under burn eschar on a porcine burn model [2]. In burn treatment, a common practice is the topical application of either anti-microbial products or wound enhancing agents. While the activity of anti-microbial products is designed to fight against microbes on the wound surface but with the least toxicity to viable tissue, wound enhancing agents need to reach the viable tissue layer under the burn eschar. Many studies have reported the accelerated healing of superficial burn wounds and skin graft donor sites by the topical application of exogeneous growth factors [3]. It is well known that the efficacy of the penetration of a topical agent on intact skin mostly depends on the molecular size of the product [4] and [5]. While burn injury destroys this epidermal physiological barrier, the coagulated burn tissue layer on the burn wound surface makes it difficult for topical agents to reach viable tissue....

Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

"Candidatus Similichlamydia laticola", a novel Chlamydia-like agent of epitheliocystis in seven consecutive cohorts of farmed Australian barramundi, lates calcarifer (Bloch)

Six consecutively hatched cohorts and one cohort of pre-hatch eggs of farmed barramundi (Lates calcarifer) from south Australia were examined for Chlamydia-like organisms associated with epitheliocystis. To identify and characterise the bacteria, 59 gill samples and three pre-hatch egg samples were processed for histology, in situ hybridisation and 16S rRNA amplification, sequencing and comprehensive phylogenetic analysis. Cases of epitheliocystis were observed microscopically and characterised by membrane-enclosed basophilic cysts filled with a granular material that caused hypertrophy of the epithelial cells. In situ hybridisation with a Chlamydiales-specific probe lead to specific labelling of the epitheliocystis inclusions within the gill epithelium. Two distinct but closely related 16S rRNA chlamydial sequences were amplified from gill DNA across the seven cohorts, including from pre-hatch eggs. These genotype sequences were found to be novel, sharing 97.1 - 97.5% similarity to the next closest 16S rRNA sequence, Ca. Similichlamydia latridicola, from Australian striped trumpeter. Comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of these genotype sequences against representative members of the Chlamydiales order and against other epitheliocystis agents revealed these Chlamydia-like organisms to be novel and taxonomically placed them within the recently proposed genus Ca. Similichlamydia. Following Fredricks and Relman's molecular postulates and based on these observations, we propose the epitheliocystis agents of barramundi to be known as "Candidatus Similichlamydia laticola" (sp. nov.).

Molecular characterization of "Candidatus Parilichlamydia carangidicola," a novel Chlamydia-like epitheliocystis agent in yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi (Valenciennes), and the proposal of a new family, "Candidatus Parilichlamydiaceae" fam. nov. (order Chlamydiales).

Three cohorts of farmed yellowtail kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from South Australia were examined for Chlamydia-like organisms associated with epitheliocystis. To characterize the bacteria, 38 gill samples were processed for histopathology, electron microscopy, and 16S rRNA amplification, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. Microscopically, the presence of membrane-enclosed cysts was observed within the gill lamellae. Also observed was hyperplasia of the epithelial cells with cytoplasmic vacuolization and fusion of the gill lamellae. Transmission electron microscopy revealed morphological features of the reticulate and intermediate bodies typical of members of the order Chlamydiales. A novel 1,393-bp 16S chlamydial rRNA sequence was amplified from gill DNA extracted from fish in all cohorts over a 3-year period that corresponded to the 16S rRNA sequence amplified directly from laser-dissected cysts. This sequence was only 87% similar to the reported "Candidatus Piscichlamydia salmonis" (AY462244) from Atlantic salmon and Arctic charr. Phylogenetic analysis of this sequence against 35 Chlamydia and Chlamydia-like bacteria revealed that this novel bacterium belongs to an undescribed family lineage in the order Chlamydiales. Based on these observations, we propose this bacterium of yellowtail kingfish be known as "Candidatus Parilichlamydia carangidicola" and that the new family be known as "Candidatus Parilichlamydiaceae."

Molecular characterization of "Candidatus Similichlamydia latridicola" gen. nov., sp. nov. (Chlamydiales: "Candidatus Parilichlamydiaceae"), a novel Chlamydia-like epitheliocystis agent in the striped trumpeter, Latris lineata (Forster)

Histological analysis of gill samples taken from individuals of Latris lineata reared in aquaculture in Tasmania, Australia, and those sampled from the wild revealed the presence of epitheliocystis-like basophilic inclusions. Subsequent morphological, in situ hybridization, and molecular analyses were performed to confirm the presence of this disease and discovered a Chlamydia-like organism associated with this condition, and the criteria set by Fredericks and Relman's postulates were used to establish disease causation. Three distinct 16S rRNA genotypes were sequenced from 16 fish, and phylogenetic analyses of the nearly full-length 16S rRNA sequences generated for this bacterial agent indicated that they were nearly identical novel members of the order Chlamydiales. This new taxon formed a well-supported clade with "Candidatus Parilichlamydia carangidicola" from the yellowtail kingfish (Seriola lalandi). On the basis of sequence divergence over the 16S rRNA region relative to all other members of the order Chlamydiales, a new genus and species are proposed here for the Chlamydia-like bacterium from L. lineata, i.e., "Candidatus Similichlamydia latridicola" gen. nov., sp. nov.

Impact of passenger group dynamics on an airport evacuation process using an agent-based model

The safety of passengers is a major concern to airports. In the event of crises, having an effective and efficient evacuation process in place can significantly aid in enhancing passenger safety. Hence, it is necessary for airport operators to have an in-depth understanding of the evacuation process of their airport terminal. Although evacuation models have been used in studying pedestrian behaviour for decades, little research has been done in considering the evacuees’ group dynamics and the complexity of the environment. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger evacuation process. Different exits were allocated to passengers based on their location and security level. The simulation results show that the evacuation time can be influenced by passenger group dynamics. This model also provides a convenient way to design airport evacuation strategy and examine its efficiency. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Intermittent Fugu parathyroid hormone 1 (1–34) is an anabolic bone agent in young male rats and osteopenic ovariectomized rats

Human parathyroid hormone (hPTH) is currently the only treatment for osteoporosis that forms new bone. Previously we described a fish equivalent, Fugu parathyroid hormone 1 (fPth1) which has hPTH-like biological activity in vitro despite fPth1(1–34) sharing only 53% identity with hPTH(1–34). Here we demonstrate the in vivo actions of fPth1(1–34) on bone. In study 1, young male rats were injected intermittently for 30 days with fPth1 [30 μg–1000 μg/kg body weight (b.w.), (30fPth1–1000fPth1)] or hPTH [30 μg–100 μg/kg b.w. (30hPTH–100hPTH)]. In proximal tibiae at low doses, the fPth1 was positively correlated with trabecular bone volume/total volume (TbBV/TV) while hPTH increased TbBV/TV, trabecular thickness (TbTh) and trabecular number (TbN). 500fPth1 and 1000fPth1 increased TbBV/TV, TbTh, TbN, mineral apposition rate (MAR) and bone formation rate/bone surface (BFR/BS) with a concomitant decrease in osteoclast surface and number. In study 2 ovariectomized (OVX), osteopenic rats and sham operated (SHAM) rats were injected intermittently with 500 μg/kg b.w. of fPth1 (500fPth1) for 11 weeks. 500fPth1 treatment resulted in increased TbBV/TV (151%) and TbTh (96%) in the proximal tibiae due to increased bone formation as assessed by BFR/BS (490%) and MAR (131%). The effect was restoration of TbBV/TV to SHAM levels without any effect on bone resorption. 500fPth1 also increased TbBV/TV and TbTh in the vertebrae (L6) and cortical thickness in the mid-femora increasing bone strength at these sites. fPth1 was similarly effective in SHAM rats. Notwithstanding the low amino acid sequence homology with hPTH (1–34), we have clearly established the efficacy of fPth1 (1–34) as an anabolic bone agent.