Likelihood estimate of treatment effects under selection bias

We consider methods for estimating causal effects of treatment in the situation where the individuals in the treatment and the control group are self selected, i.e., the selection mechanism is not randomized. In this case, simple comparison of treated and control outcomes will not generally yield valid estimates of casual effects. The propensity score method is frequently used for the evaluation of treatment effect. However, this method is based onsome strong assumptions, which are not directly testable. In this paper, we present an alternative modeling approachto draw causal inference by using share random-effect model and the computational algorithm to draw likelihood based inference with such a model. With small numerical studies and a real data analysis, we show that our approach gives not only more efficient estimates but it is also less sensitive to model misspecifications, which we consider, than the existing methods.

Effect of type and severity of intimate partner violence on women's health and service use : findings from a primary care trial of women afraid of their partners

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has major affects on women’s wellbeing. There has been limited investigation of the association between type and severity of IPV and health outcomes. This article describes socio-demographic characteristics, experiences of abuse, health, safety, and use of services in women enrolled in the Women’s Evaluation of Abuse and Violence Care (WEAVE) project. We explored associations between type and severity of abuse and women’s health, quality of life, and help seeking. Women (aged 16–50 years) attending 52 Australian general practices, reporting fear of partners in last 12 months were mailed a survey between June 2008 and May 2010. Response rate was 70.5% (272/386). In the last 12 months, one third (33.0%) experienced Severe Combined Abuse, 26.2% Physical and Emotional Abuse, 26.6% Emotional Abuse and/or Harassment only, 2.7% Physical Abuse only and 12.4% scored negative on the Composite Abuse Scale. A total of 31.6% of participants reported poor or fair health and 67.9% poor social support. In the last year, one third had seen a psychologist (36.6%) or had 5 or more general practitioner visits (34.3%); 14.7% contacted IPV services; and 24.4% had made a safety plan. Compared to other abuse groups, women with Severe Combined Abuse had poor quality of life and mental health, despite using more medications, counseling, and IPV services and were more likely to have days out of role because of emotional issues. In summary, women who were fearful of partners in the last year, have poor mental health and quality of life, attend health care services frequently, and domestic violence services infrequently. Those women experiencing severe combined physical, emotional, and sexual abuse have poorer quality of life and mental health than women experiencing other abuse types. Health practitioners should take a history of type and severity of abuse for women with mental health issues to assist access to appropriate specialist support.

Bounds on functionals of the distribution treatment effects

Bounds on the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with known marginal distributions obtained by Makarov (1981) can be used to bound the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of individual treatment effects. Identification of the distribution of individual treatment effects is important for policy purposes if we are interested in functionals of that distribution, such as the proportion of individuals who gain from the treatment and the expected gain from the treatment for these individuals. Makarov bounds on the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are pointwise sharp, i.e. they cannot be improved in any single point of the distribution. We show that the Makarov bounds are not uniformly sharp. Specifically, we show that the Makarov bounds on the region that contains the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points can be improved, and we derive the smallest set for the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points. An implication is that the Makarov bounds on a functional of the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are not best possible.

Effect of intravaginal electrical stimulation on pelvic floor muscle strength

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of intravaginal electrical stimulation (IES) on pelvic floor muscle (PFM) strength in patients with mixed urinary incontinence (MUI). Between January 2001 and February 2002, 40 MUI women (mean age: 48 years) were studied. Urge incontinence was the predominant symptom; 92.5% also presented mild stress urinary incontinence (SUI). Selection criteria were clinical history and urodynamics. Pre-treatment urodynamic study showed no statistical differences between the groups. Ten percent of the women in each group had involuntary detrusor contractions. Patients were randomly distributed, in a double-blind study, into two groups. Group G 1 (n=20), effective IES, and group G2 (n=20), sham IES, with follow-up at 1 month. The following parameters were studied: (1) clinical questionnaire, (2) examiner's evaluation of perineal muscle strength, (3) objective evaluation of perineal muscle by perineometry, (4) vaginal weight test, and (5) urodynamic study. The IES protocol consisted of three 20-min sessions per week over a 7-week period using a Dualpex Uro 996 at 4 Hz. There was no statistically significant difference in the demographic data of both groups. The number of micturitions per 24 h after treatment was reduced significantly in both groups. Urge incontinence, present in all patients before treatment, was reduced to 15% in G1 and 31.5% in G2 post-treatment. The subjective evaluation of PFM strength demonstrated a significant improvement in G1. Objective evaluation of PFM force by perineometer showed a significant improvement in maximum peak contraction post-treatment in both groups. In the vaginal weight test, there was a significant increase in average number of cone retentions post-treatment in both groups. With regard to satisfaction level, after treatment, 80% of the patients in G1 and 65% of the patients in G2 were satisfied. There was no statistically significant difference between the groups. There was a significant improvement in PFM strength from both effective and sham electrostimulation, questioning the effectiveness of electrostimulation as a monotherapy in treating MUI.

Effect of TiO2 surface modification in Rhodamine B photodegradation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of thermal cycling on denture base and autopolymerizing reline resins

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Class II malocclusion treatment using high-pull headgear with a splint: a systematic review

Objective: To systematically review the scientific evidence pertaining to the effectiveness of high-pull headgear in growing Class II subjects. Methods: A literature survey was performed by electronic database search. The survey covered the period from January 1966 to December 2008 and used Medical Subject Headings (MeSH). Articles were initially selected based on their titles and abstracts; the full articles were then retrieved. The inclusion criteria included growing subjects between 8 to 15 years of age, Class II malocclusion treatment with high-pull headgear, and a control group with Class II malocclusion. References from selected articles were hand-searched for additional publications. Selected studies were evaluated methodologically. Results: Four articles were selected; none were randomized controlled trials. All of the articles clearly formulated their objectives and used appropriate measures. The studies showed that high-pull headgear treatment improves skeletal and dental relationship, distal displacement of the maxilla, vertical eruption control and upper molars distalization. One of the studies showed a slight clockwise rotation of the palatal plane; the others showed no significant treatment effect. The mandible was not affected by the treatment. Conclusion: While there is still a lack of strong evidence demonstrating the effects of high-pull headgear with a splint, other studies indicate that the AP relations improve due to distalization of the maxilla and upper molars, with little or no treatment effects in the mandible. Greater attention to the design should be given to improve the quality of such trials. © 2013 Dental Press Journal of Orthodontics.

Methods to convert continuous outcomes into odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat: meta-epidemiological study

Clinicians find standardized mean differences (SMDs) calculated from continuous outcomes difficult to interpret. Our objective was to determine the performance of methods in converting SMDs or means to odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat (NNTs) as more intuitive measures of treatment effect.

Additive Hazards Models with Latent Treatment Effectiveness Lag Time

In many clinical trials to evaluate treatment efficacy, it is believed that there may exist latent treatment effectiveness lag times after which medical procedure or chemical compound would be in full effect. In this article, semiparametric regression models are proposed and studied to estimate the treatment effect accounting for such latent lag times. The new models take advantage of the invariance property of the additive hazards model in marginalizing over random effects, so parameters in the models are easy to be estimated and interpreted, while the flexibility without specifying baseline hazard function is kept. Monte Carlo simulation studies demonstrate the appropriateness of the proposed semiparametric estimation procedure. Data collected in the actual randomized clinical trial, which evaluates the effectiveness of biodegradable carmustine polymers for treatment of recurrent brain tumors, are analyzed.

MODELING DIFFERENTIATED TREATMENT EFFECTS FOR MULTIPLE OUTCOMES DATA

Multiple outcomes data are commonly used to characterize treatment effects in medical research, for instance, multiple symptoms to characterize potential remission of a psychiatric disorder. Often either a global, i.e. symptom-invariant, treatment effect is evaluated. Such a treatment effect may over generalize the effect across the outcomes. On the other hand individual treatment effects, varying across all outcomes, are complicated to interpret, and their estimation may lose precision relative to a global summary. An effective compromise to summarize the treatment effect may be through patterns of the treatment effects, i.e. "differentiated effects." In this paper we propose a two-category model to differentiate treatment effects into two groups. A model fitting algorithm and simulation study are presented, and several methods are developed to analyze heterogeneity presenting in the treatment effects. The method is illustrated using an analysis of schizophrenia symptom data.

Native EEG and treatment effects in neuroleptic-naïve schizophrenic patients: time and frequency domain approaches

Time domain analysis of electroencephalography (EEG) can identify subsecond periods of quasi-stable brain states. These so-called microstates assumingly correspond to basic units of cognition and emotion. On the other hand, Global Field Synchronization (GFS) is a frequency domain measure to estimate functional synchronization of brain processes on a global level for each EEG frequency band [Koenig, T., Lehmann, D., Saito, N., Kuginuki, T., Kinoshita, T., Koukkou, M., 2001. Decreased functional connectivity of EEG theta-frequency activity in first-episode, neuroleptic-naive patients with schizophrenia: preliminary results. Schizophr Res. 50, 55-60.]. Using these time and frequency domain analyzes, several previous studies reported shortened microstate duration in specific microstate classes and decreased GFS in theta band in drug naïve schizophrenia compared to controls. The purpose of this study was to investigate changes of these EEG parameters after drug treatment in drug naïve schizophrenia. EEG analysis was performed in 21 drug-naive patients and 21 healthy controls. 14 patients were reevaluated 2-8 weeks (mean 4.3) after the initiation of drug administration. The results extended findings of treatment effect on brain functions in schizophrenia, and imply that shortened duration of specific microstate classes seems a state marker especially in patients with later neuroleptic responsive, while lower theta GFS seems a state-related phenomenon and that higher gamma GFS is a trait like phenomenon.

Randomised controlled trials of homeopathy in hyperactive children: treatment procedure leads to an unconventional study design. Experience with open-label homeopathic treatment preceding the Swiss ADHD placebo controlled, randomised, double-blind, cross-over trial

BACKGROUND: Treatment of patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) with homeopathy is difficult. The Swiss randomised, placebo controlled, cross-over trial in ADHD patients (Swiss ADHD trial) was designed with an open-label screening phase prior to the randomised controlled phase. During the screening phase, the response of each child to successive homeopathic medications was observed until the optimal medication was identified. Only children who reached a predefined level of improvement participated in the randomised, cross-over phase. Although the randomised phase revealed a significant beneficial effect of homeopathy, the cross-over caused a strong carryover effect diminishing the apparent difference between placebo and verum treatment. METHODS: This retrospective analysis explores the screening phase data with respect to the risk of failure to demonstrate a specific effect of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) with randomisation at the start of the treatment. RESULTS: During the screening phase, 84% (70/83) of the children responded to treatment and reached eligibility for the randomised trial after a median time of 5 months (range 1-18), with a median of 3 different medications (range 1-9). Thirteen children (16%) did not reach eligibility. Five months after treatment start, the difference in Conners Global Index (CGI) rating between responders and non-responders became highly significant (p = 0.0006). Improvement in CGI was much greater following the identification of the optimal medication than in the preceding suboptimal treatment period (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Because of the necessity of identifying an optimal medication before response to treatment can be expected, randomisation at the start of treatment in an RCT of homeopathy in ADHD children has a high risk of failure to demonstrate a specific treatment effect, if the observation time is shorter than 12 months.

Differences across health care systems in outcome and cost-utility of surgical and conservative treatment of chronic low back pain: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on differences across health care systems in choice and outcome of the treatment of chronic low back pain (CLBP) with spinal surgery and conservative treatment as the main options. At least six randomised controlled trials comparing these two options have been performed; they show conflicting results without clear-cut evidence for superior effectiveness of any of the evaluated interventions and could not address whether treatment effect varied across patient subgroups. Cost-utility analyses display inconsistent results when comparing surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP. Due to its higher feasibility, we chose to conduct a prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: This study aims to examine if1. Differences across health care systems result in different treatment outcomes of surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP2. Patient characteristics (work-related, psychological factors, etc.) and co-interventions (physiotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy, return-to-work programs, etc.) modify the outcome of treatment for CLBP3. Cost-utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years differs between surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP.This study will recruit 1000 patients from orthopaedic spine units, rehabilitation centres, and pain clinics in Switzerland and New Zealand. Effectiveness will be measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at baseline and after six months. The change in ODI will be the primary endpoint of this study.Multiple linear regression models will be used, with the change in ODI from baseline to six months as the dependent variable and the type of health care system, type of treatment, patient characteristics, and co-interventions as independent variables. Interactions will be incorporated between type of treatment and different co-interventions and patient characteristics. Cost-utility will be measured with an index based on EQol-5D in combination with cost data. CONCLUSION: This study will provide evidence if differences across health care systems in the outcome of treatment of CLBP exist. It will classify patients with CLBP into different clinical subgroups and help to identify specific target groups who might benefit from specific surgical or conservative interventions. Furthermore, cost-utility differences will be identified for different groups of patients with CLBP. Main results of this study should be replicated in future studies on CLBP.

Homeopathic treatment of Arabidopsis thaliana plants infected with Pseudomonas syringae

Homeopathic basic research is still in the screening phase to identify promising model systems that are adapted to the needs and peculiarities of homeopathic medicine and pharmacy. We investigated the potential of a common plant-pathogen system, Arabidopsis thaliana infected with the virulent bacteria Pseudomonas syringae, regarding its response towards a homeopathic treatment. A. thaliana plants were treated with homeopathic preparations before and after infection. Outcome measure was the number of P. syringae bacteria in the leaves of A. thaliana, assessed in randomized and blinded experiments. After a screening of 30 homeopathic preparations, we investigated the effect of Carbo vegetabilis 30x, Magnesium phosphoricum 30x, Nosode 30x, Biplantol (a homeopathic complex remedy), and Biplantol 30x on the infection rate in five or six independent experiments in total. The screening yielded significant effects for four out of 30 tested preparations. In the repeated experimental series, only the homeopathic complex remedy Biplantol induced a significant reduction of the infection rate (p = 0.01; effect size, d = 0.38). None of the other four repeatedly tested preparations (Carbo vegetabilis 30x, Magnesium phosphoricum 30x, Nosode 30x, Biplantol 30x) yielded significant effects in the overall evaluation. This phytopathological model yielded a small to medium effect size and thus might be of interest for homeopathic basic research after further improvement. Compared to Bion (a common SAR inducer used as positive control), the magnitude of the treatment effect of Biplantol was about 50%. Thus, homeopathic formulations might have a potential for the treatment of plant diseases after further optimization. However, the ecological impact should be investigated more closely before widespread application.

Antiplatelets versus Anticoagulants for the Treatment of Cervical Artery Dissection: Bayesian Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE To compare the effects of antiplatelets and anticoagulants on stroke and death in patients with acute cervical artery dissection. DESIGN Systematic review with Bayesian meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES The reviewers searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to November 2012, checked reference lists, and contacted authors. STUDY SELECTION Studies were eligible if they were randomised, quasi-randomised or observational comparisons of antiplatelets and anticoagulants in patients with cervical artery dissection. DATA EXTRACTION Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. Bayesian techniques were used to appropriately account for studies with scarce event data and imbalances in the size of comparison groups. DATA SYNTHESIS Thirty-seven studies (1991 patients) were included. We found no randomised trial. The primary analysis revealed a large treatment effect in favour of antiplatelets for preventing the primary composite outcome of ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage or death within the first 3 months after treatment initiation (relative risk 0.32, 95% credibility interval 0.12 to 0.63), while the degree of between-study heterogeneity was moderate (τ(2) = 0.18). In an analysis restricted to studies of higher methodological quality, the possible advantage of antiplatelets over anticoagulants was less obvious than in the main analysis (relative risk 0.73, 95% credibility interval 0.17 to 2.30). CONCLUSION In view of these results and the safety advantages, easier usage and lower cost of antiplatelets, we conclude that antiplatelets should be given precedence over anticoagulants as a first line treatment in patients with cervical artery dissection unless results of an adequately powered randomised trial suggest the opposite.