The precipitation climate of Central Asia: intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region

In this study, we systematically compare a wide range of observational and numerical precipitation datasets for Central Asia. Data considered include two re-analyses, three datasets based on direct observations, and the output of a regional climate model simulation driven by a global re-analysis. These are validated and intercompared with respect to their ability to represent the Central Asian precipitation climate. In each of the datasets, we consider the mean spatial distribution and the seasonal cycle of precipitation, the amplitude of interannual variability, the representation of individual yearly anomalies, the precipitation sensitivity (i.e. the response to wet and dry conditions), and the temporal homogeneity of precipitation. Additionally, we carried out part of these analyses for datasets available in real time. The mutual agreement between the observations is used as an indication of how far these data can be used for validating precipitation data from other sources. In particular, we show that the observations usually agree qualitatively on anomalies in individual years while it is not always possible to use them for the quantitative validation of the amplitude of interannual variability. The regional climate model is capable of improving the spatial distribution of precipitation. At the same time, it strongly underestimates summer precipitation and its variability, while interannual variations are well represented during the other seasons, in particular in the Central Asian mountains during winter and spring

Guide to service industry statistics and related data.

Mode of access: Internet.

Joint experimental and numerical approach to three-dimensional shock control bump research

Previous studies of transonic shock control bumps have often been either numerical or experimental. Comparisons between the two have been hampered by the limitations of either approach. The present work aims to bridge the gap between computational fluid dynamics and experiment by planning a joint approach from the outset. This enables high-quality validation data to be produced and ensures that the conclusions of either aspect of the study are directly relevant to the application. Experiments conducted with bumps mounted on the floor of a blowdown tunnel were modified to include an additional postshock adverse pressure gradient through the use of a diffuser as well as introducing boundary-layer suction ahead of the test section to enable the in-flow boundary layer to be manipulated. This has the advantage of being an inexpensive and highly repeatable method. Computations were performed on a standard airfoil model, with the flight conditions as free parameters. The experimental and computational setups were then tuned to produce baseline conditions that agree well, enabling confidence that the experimental conclusions are relevant. The methods are then applied to two different shock control bumps: a smoothly contoured bump, representative of previous studies, and a novel extended geometry featuring a continuously widening tail, which spans the wind-tunnel width at the rear of the bump. Comparison between the computational and experimental results for the contour bump showed good agreement both with respect to the flow structures and quantitative analysis of the boundary-layer parameters. It was seen that combining the experimental and numerical data could provide valuable insight into the flow physics, which would not generally be possible for a one-sided approach. The experiments and computational fluid dynamics were also seen to agree well for the extended bump geometry, providing evidence that, even though thebumpinteracts directly with the wind-tunnel walls, it was still possible to observe the key flow physics. The joint approach is thus suitable even for wider bump geometries. Copyright © 2013 by S. P. Colliss, H. Babinsky, K. Nubler, and T. Lutz. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Reviewing the learning organisation model in a child and adolescent mental health service

From 1995 onwards, a child and adolescent mental health service (CAMHS) applied Senge's learning organisation model. This review compared service performance with that of peer services 5 years later and explored whether any differences were associated with the application of this model. The comparison methodology used quantitative analysis of external data from the Department of Human Services, together with qualitative analysis of material including interviews with CAMHS directors and service managers. Results showed high evaluation activity and high quality, efficiency and efficacy of care compared with other services. Several restraints to the optimal application of the model were identified, including inadequate training of new managers, service overload, major external organisational change and limited investment in information systems. Other outcomes are discussed.

Partial epilepsy syndrome in a Gypsy family linked to 5q31.3-q32

PURPOSE The restricted genetic diversity and homogeneous molecular basis of Mendelian disorders in isolated founder populations have rarely been explored in epilepsy research. Our long-term goal is to explore the genetic basis of epilepsies in one such population, the Gypsies. The aim of this report is the clinical and genetic characterization of a Gypsy family with a partial epilepsy syndrome. METHODS Clinical information was collected using semistructured interviews with affected subjects and informants. At least one interictal electroencephalography (EEG) recording was performed for each patient and previous data obtained from records. Neuroimaging included structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Linkage and haplotype analysis was performed using the Illumina IVb Linkage Panel, supplemented with highly informative microsatellites in linked regions and Affymetrix SNP 5.0 array data. RESULTS We observed an early-onset partial epilepsy syndrome with seizure semiology strongly suggestive of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), with mild intellectual deficit co-occurring in a large proportion of the patients. Psychiatric morbidity was common in the extended pedigree but did not cosegregate with epilepsy. Linkage analysis definitively excluded previously reported loci, and identified a novel locus on 5q31.3-q32 with an logarithm of the odds (LOD) score of 3 corresponding to the expected maximum in this family. DISCUSSION The syndrome can be classified as familial temporal lobe epilepsy (FTLE) or possibly a new syndrome with mild intellectual deficit. The linked 5q region does not contain any ion channel-encoding genes and is thus likely to contribute new knowledge about epilepsy pathogenesis. Identification of the mutation in this family and in additional patients will define the full phenotypic spectrum.

Análise de estratégias argumentativas no gênero editorial

Os editoriais são textos argumentativos que expõem a visão do jornal, do qual fazem parte, sobre um determinado acontecimento. Na construção destes textos, o jornalista dispõe de estratégias que o auxiliam na produção de sua argumentação. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar quais estratégias são utilizadas nos textos de editoriais. As estratégias estudadas neste trabalho são a citação, o argumento de autoridade, as aspas, a seleção lexical (índices de avaliação e indicadores atitudinais, metáforas, termos semanticamente relacionados, etc), as porcentagens, estatísticas e dados numéricos, as exemplificações, a concessão e os modalizadores. Para tanto, foram selecionados vinte e quatro textos de editoriais do jornal O Globo, adquiridos semanalmente, ao longo do primeiro semestre de 2008. Através da análise, foi observado que tais estratégias se mostraram recorrentes e que as mesmas trouxeram contribuição para o propósito comunicativo do argumentador, bem como auxiliaram na busca da persuasão do leitor

Estudo da prevalência da utilização de protetores bucais em praticantes da arte marcial Muay Thai

Projeto de Pós-Graduação/Dissertação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Medicina Dentária

Assessment of physical activity among primary school aged children: the Children's Leisure Activities Study (CLASS)

Overweight and obesity rates among children in Australia have increased twofold in the last decade. Physical activity is thought to play an important role in the prevention and treatment of childhood obesity. Children's physical activity data in Australia are incomplete and mainly based on parental proxy reports. One of the reasons for the lack of children's physical activity prevalence data in Australia is the difficulties of measurement. The aim of this study was to develop and examine a reliable, valid and feasible method for assessing physical activity among primary school aged children. A total of 112 grade 5 and 6 children and their parents were recruited from four state primary schools in the eastern and western suburbs of Melbourne. The test-retest reliability of a parental proxy physical activity questionnaire and a children's self report physical activity questionnaire was assessed. The criterion validity of the questionnaires was assessed using accelerometry. Findings suggest that the self report and proxy report questionnaires provided reliable measures of the type, frequency and duration of children's physical activity behaviour. Overall, the criterion validity of the questionnaires was poor. Although accelerometry as an objective measure shows promise, it does not provide the important physical activity behavioural and contextual information that is critical for the development of strategies to promote physical activity among children. We recommend that a combination of self report or proxy and objective measurement (using accelerometry or even pedometry) appears to be the current 'best buy' in the assessment of children's physical activity behaviour.

Exploring in-hospital adverse drug events using ICD-10 codes

 Abstract
Objective Adverse drug events (ADEs) during hospital admissions are a widespread problem associated with adverse patient outcomes. The ‘external cause’ codes in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision (ICD-10) provide opportunities for identifying the incidence of ADEs acquired during hospital stays that may assist in targeting interventions to decrease their occurrence. The aim of the present study was to use routine administrative data to identify ADEs acquired during hospital admissions in a suburban healthcare network in Melbourne, Australia.

Methods Thirty-nine secondary diagnosis fields of hospital discharge data for a 1-year period were reviewed for ‘diagnoses not present on admission’ and assigned to the Classification of Hospital Acquired Diagnoses (CHADx) subclasses. Discharges with one or more ADE subclass were extracted for retrospective analysis.

Results From 57 205 hospital discharges, 7891 discharges (13.8%) had at least one CHADx, and 402 discharges (0.7%) had an ADE recorded. The highest proportion of ADEs was due to administration of analgesics (27%) and systemic antibiotics (23%). Other major contributors were anticoagulation (13%), anaesthesia (9%) and medications with cardiovascular side-effects (9%).

Conclusion Hospital data coded in ICD-10 can be used to identify ADEs that occur during hospital stays and also clinical conditions, therapeutic drug classes and treating units where these occur. Using the CHADx algorithm on administrative datasets provides a consistent and economical method for such ADE monitoring.

What is known about the topic? Adverse drug events (ADEs) can result in several different physical consequences, ranging from allergic reactions to death, thereby posing a significant burden on patients and the health system. Numerous studies have compared manual, written incident reporting systems used by hospital staff with computerised automated systems to identify ADEs acquired during hospital admissions. Despite various approaches aimed at improving the detection of ADEs, they remain under-reported, as a result of which interventions to mitigate the effect of ADEs cannot be initiated effectively.

What does this paper add? This research article demonstrates major methodological advances over comparable published studies looking at the effectiveness of using routine administrative data to monitor rates of ADEs that occur during a hospital stay and reviews the type of ADEs and their frequency patterns during patient admission. It also provides an insight into the effect of ADEs that occur within different hospital treating units. The method implemented in this study is unique because it uses a grouping algorithm developed for the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care (ACSQHC) to identify ADEs not present on admission from patient data coded in ICD-10. This algorithm links the coded external causes of ADEs with their consequences or manifestations. ADEs identified through the use of programmed code based on this algorithm have not been studied in the past and therefore this paper adds to previous knowledge in this subject area.

What are the implications for health professionals? Although not all ADEs can be prevented with current medical knowledge, this study can assist health professionals in targeting interventions that can efficiently reduce the rate of ADEs that occur during a hospital stay, and improve information available for future medication management decisions.

Combined analysis of categorical and numerical descriptors of Australian groundnut accessions using nonlinear principal component analysis

For users of germplasm collections, the purpose of measuring characterization and evaluation descriptors, and subsequently using statistical methodology to summarize the data, is not only to interpret the relationships between the descriptors, but also to characterize the differences and similarities between accessions in relation to their phenotypic variability for each of the measured descriptors. The set of descriptors for the accessions of most germplasm collections consists of both numerical and categorical descriptors. This poses problems for a combined analysis of all descriptors because few statistical techniques deal with mixtures of measurement types. In this article, nonlinear principal component analysis was used to analyze the descriptors of the accessions in the Australian groundnut collection. It was demonstrated that the nonlinear variant of ordinary principal component analysis is an appropriate analytical tool because subspecies and botanical varieties could be identified on the basis of the analysis and characterized in terms of all descriptors. Moreover, outlying accessions could be easily spotted and their characteristics established. The statistical results and their interpretations provide users with a more efficient way to identify accessions of potential relevance for their plant improvement programs and encourage and improve the usefulness and utilization of germplasm collections.

Summarising and reporting sugarcane locomotive run statistics from TOTools and GPS data

The majority of sugar mill locomotives are equipped with GPS devices from which locomotive position data is stored. Locomotive run information (e.g. start times, run destinations and activities) is electronically stored in software called TOTools. The latest software development allows TOTools to interpret historical GPS information by combining this data with run information recorded in TOTools and geographic information from a GIS application called MapInfo. As a result, TOTools is capable of summarising run activity details such as run start and finish times and shunt activities with great accuracy. This paper presents 15 reports developed to summarise run activities and speed information. The reports will be of use pre-season to assist in developing the next year's schedule and for determining priorities for investment in the track infrastructure. They will also be of benefit during the season to closely monitor locomotive run performance against the existing schedule.

Rank regression for accelerated failure time model with clustered and censored data

For clustered survival data, the traditional Gehan-type estimator is asymptotically equivalent to using only the between-cluster ranks, and the within-cluster ranks are ignored. The contribution of this paper is two fold: - (i) incorporating within-cluster ranks in censored data analysis, and; - (ii) applying the induced smoothing of Brown and Wang (2005, Biometrika) for computational convenience. Asymptotic properties of the resulting estimating functions are given. We also carry out numerical studies to assess the performance of the proposed approach and conclude that the proposed approach can lead to much improved estimators when strong clustering effects exist. A dataset from a litter-matched tumorigenesis experiment is used for illustration.

Optimal simultaneous maximum a posterioriestimation of states, noise statistics and parameters II. Numerical performance

A very general and numerically quite robust algorithm has been proposed by Sastry and Gauvrit (1980) for system identification. The present paper takes it up and examines its performance on a real test example. The example considered is the lateral dynamics of an aircraft. This is used as a vehicle for demonstrating the performance of various aspects of the algorithm in several possible modes.

Curvature and wrinkling of premixed flame kernels-comparisons of OH PLIF and DNS data

The effects of curvature and wrinkling on the growth of turbulent premixed flame kernels were studied using both two-dimensional OH Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) and three-dimensional Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). Comparisons of results between the two approaches showed a high level of agreement, providing confidence in the simplified chemistry treatment employed in the DNS, and indicating that chemistry might have only a limited influence on the evolution of the freely propagating flame. The usefulness of PLIF in providing data over a wide parameter range was illustrated using statistics obtained from both CH4/air and H2/air mixtures, which show markedly different behavior due to their different thermo-diffusive properties. The results provided a demonstration of the combined power of PLIF and DNS for flame investigation. Each technique compensate for the weaknesses of the other, and to reinforce the strengths of both.