Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tests of measurement invariance failed to support the application of the "then-test"

Objective
The use of then-test (retrospective pre-test) scores has frequently been proposed as a solution to potential confounding of change scores because of response shift, as it is assumed that then-test and post-test responses are provided from the same perspective. However, this assumption has not been formally tested using robust quantitative methods. The aim of this study was to compare the psychometric performance of then-test/post-test with traditional pre-test/post-test data and assessing whether the resulting data structures support the application of the then-test for evaluations of chronic disease self-management interventions.

Study Design and Setting
Pre-test, post-test, and then-test data were collected from 314 participants of self-management courses using the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). The derived change scores (pre-test/post-test; then-test/post-test) were examined for their psychometric performance using tests of measurement invariance.

Results
Few questionnaire items were noninvariant across pre-test/post-test, with four items identified and requiring removal to enable an unbiased comparison of factor means. In contrast, 12 items were identified and required removal in then-test/post-test data to avoid biased change score estimates.

Conclusion
Traditional pre-test/post-test data appear to be robust with little indication of response shift. In contrast, the weaker psychometric performance of then-test/post-test data suggests psychometric flaws that may be the result of implicit theory of change, social desirability, and recall bias.

The inclusion of ‘then-test’ questions in post-test questionnaires alters post-test responses: a randomized study of bias in health program evaluation

Objectives Program evaluations are frequently based on ‘then-test’ data, i.e., pre-test collected in retrospect. While the application of the then-test has practical advantages, little is known about the validity of then-test data. Because of the collection of then-test in close proximity to post-test questions, this study was aimed at exploring whether the presence of then-test questions in post-test questionnaires influenced subjects’ responses to post-test.
Patients and methods To test the influence of then-test questions, we designed a randomized three-group study in the context of chronic disease self-management programs. Interventions had comparable goals and philosophies, and all 949 study participants filled out identical Health Education Impact Questionnaires (heiQ) at pre-test. At post-test, participants were then randomized to one of the following three groups: Group A responded to post-test questions only (n = 331); Group B filled out transition questions in addition to post-test (n = 304); and Group C filled out then-test questions in addition to post-test (n = 314).
Results Significant post-test differences were found in six of eight heiQ scales, with respondents who filled out then test questions reporting significantly higher post-test scores than respondents of the other groups.
Conclusions This study provides evidence that the inclusion of then-test questions alters post-test responses,
suggesting that change scores based on then-test data be interpreted with care.

Capacidad predictiva del euroscore II en una cohorte de pacientes de cirugía cardiovascular en una institución de cuarto nivel de Bogotá

El EuroSCORE II es una de las escalas más empleadas como predictor de riesgo de mortalidad en los servicios de cirugía cardiovascular. Esta ha sido validada en diferentes hospitales alrededor del mundo demostrando una adecuada capacidad de discriminación. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar el valor predictivo de la escala de riesgo EuroSCORE II en los pacientes sometidos a Cirugía Cardiovascular en una institución de cuarto nivel de Bogotá. Metodología: Estudio de prueba diagnóstica observacional y retrospectivo de la cohorte de pacientes en una institución de cuarto nivel durante los años 2012 a 2014. Se realizó el cálculo del EuroSCORE II para cada paciente, comparando la mortalidad predicha versus la observada, de forma global y por grupo de riesgo. Resultados: Del total de la población que tuvo intervención cardiaca mayor en una institución de cuarto nivel en la cohorte estudiada se presentaron 58 casos de muerte en los treinta días posteriores a la intervención, que corresponde al 7,46%. La mortalidad esperada calculada con el EuroSCORE II fue del 9,26%, lo cual indica un buen poder de predicción para esta población. Por otro lado, la curva ROC evidencia con un valor de 0.757 del área bajo la curva, que el modelo El EuroSCORE II es un buen modelo predictivo con un adecuado valor de discriminación. Se evidenció que las variables estado crítico preoperatorio y función del ventrículo izquierdo tienen mayor peso estadístico en nuestra población objeto, con una significancia del 0,001, seguido de infarto agudo de miocardio, sexo y peso de la intervención con una significancia del 0,01. Adicionalmente, el Euroscore II tiene mejor valor predictivo cuando se realiza un solo procedimiento o revascularización, en comparación a cuando se realiza procedimientos mixtos. Se recomienda realizar un estudio multicéntrico donde se incluyan pacientes con diferentes características demográficas

House price bubble estimations in Australia's capital cities with market fundamentals

This paper investigates the existence of house price bubbles in Australia's eight capital cities in recent years by using quantitative analyses including Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response and Chow forecast test. While interactions between house prices and market fundamentals are discussed in long-run and causal estimations, shocks from the market fundamentals to house prices are investigated in generalized impulse response analyses. Findings from estimating house price bubbles for eight capital cities suggest that there was an obvious house price bubble in Perth, while a slight house price bubble occurred in Sydney. In contrast, house prices in Adelaide and Darwin can be explained very well by market fundamentals, while house prices in Melbourne, Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra were undervalued in the study period.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

HPV immunisation and cervical screening - confirmation of changed performance of cytology as a screening test in immunised women : a retrospective population based cohort study

Peer reviewed

HPV immunisation and cervical screening - confirmation of changed performance of cytology as a screening test in immunised women : a retrospective population based cohort study

Peer reviewed

Developing a simulator application to test the billing platform in telecom industry

Billing Mediation Platform (BMP) in telecommunication industry is used to process real-time streams of Call Detail Records (CDRs) which can be a massive number a day. The generated records by BMP can be deployed for billing purposes, fraud detection, spam filtering, traffic analysis, and churn forecast. Several of these applications are distinguished by real-time processing requiring low-latency analysis of CDRs. Testing of such a platform carries diverse aspects like stress testing of analytics for scalability and what-if scenarios which require generating of CDRs with realistic volumetric and appropriate properties. The approach of this project is to build user friendly and flexible application which assists the development department to test their billing solution occasionally. These generators projects have been around for a while the only difference are the potions they cover and the purpose they will be used for. This paper proposes to use a simulator application to test the BMPs with simulating CDRs. The Simulated CDRs are modifiable based on the user requirements and represent real world data.