On the relative utility of different methods to increase the vertical height in an otter trawl

Comparative fishing experiments to study the relative utility of different methods for increased vertical spread of bottom trawl and the availability of off bottom fishes in the region were made using gussets, kite, separate float line and side panels on a two seam net. The catch rates as well as composition of fish were studied. The opening of the trawl mouth, both horizontally and vertically, under different operating gears and towing tension on warps were measured and estimated for comparison purposes. Better catch rate with good quality fishes was obtained with the gear operated with separate float line. With kite, the vertical spread was increased with less catch indicating poor concentration of off bottom fishes.

Estimating Preferences With Random Utility Models.

Rapport de recherche présenté à la Faculté des arts et des sciences en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en sciences économiques.

Reported Job Satisfaction : What Does It Mean?

By reporting his satisfaction with his job or any other experience, an individual does not communicate the number of utils that he feels. Instead, he expresses his posterior preference over available alternatives conditional on acquired knowledge of the past. This new interpretation of reported job satisfaction restores the power of microeconomic theory without denying the essential role of discrepancies between one’s situation and available opportunities. Posterior human wealth discrepancies are found to be the best predictor of reported job satisfaction. Static models of relative utility and other subjective well-being assumptions are all unambiguously rejected by the data, as well as an \"economic\" model in which job satisfaction is a measure of posterior human wealth. The \"posterior choice\" model readily explains why so many people usually report themselves as happy or satisfied, why both younger and older age groups are insensitive to current earning discrepancies, and why the past weighs more heavily than the present and the future.

Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Konzeption von Entwicklungspfaden für Zulieferparks in der Automobilindustrie

Die Automobilindustrie reagiert mit Modularisierungsstrategien auf die zunehmende Produktkomplexität, getrieben durch die wachsenden Individualisierungsanforde-rungen auf der Kundenseite und der Modellpolitik mit neuen Fahrzeuganläufen. Die Hersteller verlagern die Materialbereitstellungskomplexität durch Outsourcing an die nächste Zulieferebene, den First Tier Suppliern, die seit Beginn der 90er Jahre zunehmend in Zulieferparks in unmittelbarer Werknähe integriert werden. Typische Merkmale eines klassischen Zulieferparks sind: Bereitstellung einer Halleninfrastruktur mit Infrastrukturdienstleistungen, Anlieferung der Teileumfänge im JIS-Verfahren (Just-in-Sequence = reihenfolgegenaue Synchronisation), lokale Wertschöpfung (Vormontagen, Sequenzierung) des Zulieferers, Vertragsbindung der First Tier Zulieferer für die Dauer eines Produktlebenszyklus und Einbindung eines Logistikdienstleisters. Teilweise werden zur Finanzierung Förderprojekte des öffent-lichen Sektors initiiert. Bisher fehlte eine wissenschaftliche Bearbeitung dieses Themas "Zulieferpark". In der Arbeit werden die in Europa entstandenen Zulieferparks näher untersucht, um Vor- und Nachteile dieses Logistikkonzeptes zu dokumentieren und Entwicklungs-trends aufzuzeigen. Abgeleitet aus diesen Erkenntnissen werden Optimierungs-ansätze aufgezeigt und konkrete Entwicklungspfade zur Verbesserung der Chancen-Risikoposition der Hauptakteure Automobilhersteller, Zulieferer und Logistikdienst-leister beschrieben. Die Arbeit gliedert sich in vier Haupteile, einer differenzierten Beschreibung der Ausgangssituation und den Entwicklungstrends in der Automobilindustrie, dem Vorgehensmodell, der Dokumentation der Analyseergebnisse und der Bewertung von Zulieferparkmodellen. Im Rahmen der Ergebnisdokumentation des Analyseteils werden vier Zulieferparkmodelle in detaillierten Fallstudien anschaulich dargestellt. Zur Erarbeitung der Analyseergebnisse wurde eine Befragung der Hauptakteure mittels strukturierten Fragebögen durchgeführt. Zur Erhebung von Branchentrends und zur relativen Bewertung der Parkmodelle wurden zusätzlich Experten befragt. Zur Segmentierung der Zulieferparklandschaft wurde die Methode der Netzwerk-analyse eingesetzt. Die relative Bewertung der Nutzenposition basiert auf der Nutzwertanalyse. Als Ergebnisse der Arbeit liegen vor: · Umfassende Analyse der Zulieferparklandschaft in Europa, · Segmentierung der Parks in Zulieferparkmodelle, Optimierungsansätze zur Verbesserung einer Win-Win-Situation der beteiligten Hauptakteure, · Relative Nutzenbewertung der Zulieferparkmodelle, · Entwicklungspfade für klassische Zulieferparks.

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

Genetic Manipulation, Gene Silencing and Biomarker Development in Multiple Experimental Models.

The thesis is set in three different parts, according to the relative experimental models. First, the domestic pig (Sus scrofa) is part of the study on reproductive biotechnologies: the transgenesis technique of Sperm Mediated Gene Transfer is widely studied starting from the quality of the semen, through the study of multiple uptakes of exogenous DNA and lastly used in the production of multi-transgenic blastocysts. Finally we managed to couple the transgenesis pipeline with sperm sorting and therefore produced transgenic embryos of predetermined sex. In the second part of the thesis the attention is on the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) and on its derived cell line: the S2 cells. The in vitro and in vivo models are used to develop and validate an efficient way to knock down the myc gene. First an efficient in vitro protocol is described, than we demonstrate how the decrease in myc transcript remarkably affects the ribosome biogenesis through the study of Polysome gradients, rRNA content and qPCR. In vivo we identified two optimal drivers for the conditional silencing of myc, once the flies are fed with RU486: the first one is throughout the whole body (Tubulin), while the second is a head fat body driver (S32). With these results we present a very efficient model to study the role of myc in multiple aspects of translation. In the third and last part, the focus is on human derived lung fibroblasts (hLF-1), mouse tail fibroblasts and mouse tissues. We developed an efficient assay to quantify the total protein content of the nucleus on a single cell level via fluorescence. We coupled the protocol with classical immunofluorescence so to have at the same time general and particular information, demonstrating that during senescence nuclear proteins increase by 1.8 fold either in human cells, mouse cells and mouse tissues.

Effects of informative censoring on the hazard function: Application to the proportional hazards regression model

The standard analyses of survival data involve the assumption that survival and censoring are independent. When censoring and survival are related, the phenomenon is known as informative censoring. This paper examines the effects of an informative censoring assumption on the hazard function and the estimated hazard ratio provided by the Cox model.^ The limiting factor in all analyses of informative censoring is the problem of non-identifiability. Non-identifiability implies that it is impossible to distinguish a situation in which censoring and death are independent from one in which there is dependence. However, it is possible that informative censoring occurs. Examination of the literature indicates how others have approached the problem and covers the relevant theoretical background.^ Three models are examined in detail. The first model uses conditionally independent marginal hazards to obtain the unconditional survival function and hazards. The second model is based on the Gumbel Type A method for combining independent marginal distributions into bivariate distributions using a dependency parameter. Finally, a formulation based on a compartmental model is presented and its results described. For the latter two approaches, the resulting hazard is used in the Cox model in a simulation study.^ The unconditional survival distribution formed from the first model involves dependency, but the crude hazard resulting from this unconditional distribution is identical to the marginal hazard, and inferences based on the hazard are valid. The hazard ratios formed from two distributions following the Gumbel Type A model are biased by a factor dependent on the amount of censoring in the two populations and the strength of the dependency of death and censoring in the two populations. The Cox model estimates this biased hazard ratio. In general, the hazard resulting from the compartmental model is not constant, even if the individual marginal hazards are constant, unless censoring is non-informative. The hazard ratio tends to a specific limit.^ Methods of evaluating situations in which informative censoring is present are described, and the relative utility of the three models examined is discussed. ^

Psychosocial correlates of physical activity in white and African-American girls

Purpose To evaluate the relative utility of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) in explaining intentions and physical activity behavior in white and African-American eighth-grade girls. Methods One-thousand-thirty white and 1114 African-American eighth-grade girls (mean age 13.6 ± 0.7 years) from 31 middle schools in South Carolina completed a 3-day physical activity recall and a questionnaire assessing attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, self-efficacy, and intentions related to regular participation in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Results Among Whites, 17% of the variance in intentions was contributed by subjective norms and attitude, with intentions accounting for 8% of the variance in MVPA. The addition of perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy to the TRA significantly improved the prediction of intentions and MVPA accounting for 40% and 10% of the variance, respectively. Among African-Americans, subjective norms and attitude accounted for 13% of the variance in intentions, with intentions accounting for only 3% of the variance in MVPA. The addition of perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy to the TRA significantly improved the prediction of intentions and MVPA accounting for 28% and 5% of the variance, respectively. Conclusions The results provided limited empirical support for the TPB among white adolescent girls; however, our findings suggest that the planned behavior framework has limited utility among African-American adolescent girls. The relatively weak link between intentions and MVPA observed in both population groups suggest that constructs external to the TPB may be more important mediators of physical activity behavior in adolescent girls.

What determines weight loss behaviour and body weight satisfaction in Australia? Evidence from the HILDA survey

This thesis undertakes an empirical investigation to identify factors that influence the decision to undertake weight loss behaviour using the nationally representative HILDA dataset. Although many factors influenced the decision, the findings suggested that body weight satisfaction was the greatest determinant of weight loss dieting. This thesis therefore conducted a further empirical study to analyse the determinants of body weight satisfaction. A rank-hypothesis was found to better predict variation in body weight satisfaction levels than the absolute value of the individual's Body Mass Index (BMI) or the relative-norm hypothesis, which are commonly reported in the literature.

On the comparative fishing experiments with a four-seam and a two-seam trawls on the east coast

Fishing experiments were undertaken to study the relative utility of a newly designed four seam type net on a conventional two seam net at the centre along the East Coast in both inshore and deeper zones (up to 100m.) and the results indicated that the new four seam net has given higher catch rate of 6 to 8% more with higher catch rate of fish supposed to belong to off bottom region. Further this gear found more selective in obtaining Lactarius, which is one of the good variety of fish from trawlers, in both quantity as well as in quality. In terms of horizontal spread this new net gave less on comparison with the conventional two seam net, thereby showed corresponding increase in vertical spread; but warp tension remained more or less same in both the gear. Both gear have worked equally well in majority of depth ranges experimented with optimum spread. Finally the results indicated that the new net can work well from the present trawlers along the coast.

Beaufort trout MicroPlex:A high-throughput multiplex platform comprising 38 informative microsatellite loci for use in resident and anadromous (sea trout) brown trout Salmo trutta genetic studies

A flexible panel consisting of 38 informative microsatellite markers for Salmo trutta is described. These markers were selected from a pool of over 150 candidate loci that can be readily amplified in four multiplex PCR groups but other permutations are also possible. The basic properties of each markers were assessed in six population samples from both the Burrishoole catchment, in the west of Ireland, and Lough Neagh, in Northern Ireland. A method to assess the relative utility of individual markers for the detection of population genetic structuring is also described. Given its flexibility, technical reliability and high degree of informativeness, the use of this panel of markers is advocated as a standard for S. trutta genetic studies. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.