Optimal Budget-Constrained Sample Allocation for Selection Decisions with Multiple Uncertain Attributes

A decision-maker, when faced with a limited and fixed budget to collect data in support of a multiple attribute selection decision, must decide how many samples to observe from each alternative and attribute. This allocation decision is of particular importance when the information gained leads to uncertain estimates of the attribute values as with sample data collected from observations such as measurements, experimental evaluations, or simulation runs. For example, when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security must decide upon a radiation detection system to acquire, a number of performance attributes are of interest and must be measured in order to characterize each of the considered systems. We identified and evaluated several approaches to incorporate the uncertainty in the attribute value estimates into a normative model for a multiple attribute selection decision. Assuming an additive multiple attribute value model, we demonstrated the idea of propagating the attribute value uncertainty and describing the decision values for each alternative as probability distributions. These distributions were used to select an alternative. With the goal of maximizing the probability of correct selection we developed and evaluated, under several different sets of assumptions, procedures to allocate the fixed experimental budget across the multiple attributes and alternatives. Through a series of simulation studies, we compared the performance of these allocation procedures to the simple, but common, allocation procedure that distributed the sample budget equally across the alternatives and attributes. We found the allocation procedures that were developed based on the inclusion of decision-maker knowledge, such as knowledge of the decision model, outperformed those that neglected such information. Beginning with general knowledge of the attribute values provided by Bayesian prior distributions, and updating this knowledge with each observed sample, the sequential allocation procedure performed particularly well. These observations demonstrate that managing projects focused on a selection decision so that the decision modeling and the experimental planning are done jointly, rather than in isolation, can improve the overall selection results.

Estimating the probability of an invalid match for matching using the rank transform

A fundamental problem faced by stereo matching algorithms is the matching or correspondence problem. A wide range of algorithms have been proposed for the correspondence problem. For all matching algorithms, it would be useful to be able to compute a measure of the probability of correctness, or reliability of a match. This paper focuses in particular on one class for matching algorithms, which are based on the rank transform. The interest in these algorithms for stereo matching stems from their invariance to radiometric distortion, and their amenability to fast hardware implementation. This work differs from previous work in that it derives, from first principles, an expression for the probability of a correct match. This method was based on an enumeration of all possible symbols for matching. The theoretical results for disparity error prediction, obtained using this method, were found to agree well with experimental results. However, disadvantages of the technique developed in this chapter are that it is not easily applicable to real images, and also that it is too computationally expensive for practical window sizes. Nevertheless, the exercise provides an interesting and novel analysis of match reliability.

Mechanisms of substrate selection by the signal recognition particle

The signal recognition particle (SRP) targets membrane and secretory proteins to their correct cellular destination with remarkably high fidelity. Previous studies have shown that multiple checkpoints exist within this targeting pathway that allows ‘correct cargo’ to be quickly and efficiently targeted and for ‘incorrect cargo’ to be promptly rejected. In this work, we delved further into understanding the mechanisms of how substrates are selected or discarded by the SRP. First, we discovered the role of the SRP fingerloop and how it activates the SRP and SRP receptor (SR) GTPases to target and unload cargo in response to signal sequence binding. Second, we learned how an ‘avoidance signal’ found in the bacterial autotransporter, EspP, allows this protein to escape the SRP pathway by causing the SRP and SR to form a ‘distorted’ complex that is inefficient in delivering the cargo to the membrane. Lastly, we determined how Trigger Factor, a co-translational chaperone, helps SRP discriminate against ‘incorrect cargo’ at three distinct stages: SRP binding to RNC; targeting of RNC to the membrane via SRP-FtsY assembly; and stronger antagonism of SRP targeting of ribosomes bearing nascent polypeptides that exceed a critical length. Overall, results delineate the rich underlying mechanisms by which SRP recognizes its substrates, which in turn activates the targeting pathway and provides a conceptual foundation to understand how timely and accurate selection of substrates is achieved by this protein targeting machinery.

Deciding between accounts of the selection task: A reply to Oaksford (2002)

In this paper we report on our attempts to fit the optimal data selection (ODS) model (Oaksford Chater, 1994; Oaksford, Chater, & Larkin, 2000) to the selection task data reported in Feeney and Handley (2000) and Handley, Feeney, and Harper (2002). Although Oaksford (2002b) reports good fits to the data described in Feeney and Handley (2000), the model does not adequately capture the data described in Handley et al. (2002). Furthermore, across all six of the experiments modelled here, the ODS model does not predict participants' behaviour at the level of selection rates for individual cards. Finally, when people's probability estimates are used in the modelling exercise, the model adequately captures only I out of 18 conditions described in Handley et al. We discuss the implications of these results for models of the selection task and claim that they support deductive, rather than probabilistic, accounts of the task.

Work-related training and the probability of transitioning from non-permanent to permanent employment

It is widely believed that work-related training increases a worker’s probability of moving up the job-quality ladder. This is usually couched in terms of effects on wages, but it has also been argued that training increases the probability of moving from non-permanent forms of employment to more permanent employment. This hypothesis is tested using nationally representative panel data for Australia, a country where the incidence of non-permanent employment, and especially casual employment, is high by international standards. While a positive association between participation in work-related training and the subsequent probability of moving from either casual or fixed-term contract employment to permanent employment is observed among men, this is shown to be driven not by a causal impact of training on transitions but by differences between those who do and do not receive training; i.e., selection bias.

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Optimization of relay selection in DF cooperative systems with outdated CSI

Relay selection has been considered as an effective method to improve the performance of cooperative communication. However, the Channel State Information (CSI) used in relay selection can be outdated, yielding severe performance degradation of cooperative communication systems. In this paper, we investigate the relay selection under outdated CSI in a Decode-and-Forward (DF) cooperative system to improve its outage performance. We formulize an optimization problem, where the set of relays that forwards data is optimized to minimize the probability of outage conditioned on the outdated CSI of all the decodable relays’ links. We then propose a novel multiple-relay selection strategy based on the solution of the optimization problem. Simulation results show that the proposed relay selection strategy achieves large improvement of outage performance compared with the existing relay selection strategies combating outdated CSI given in the literature.

Application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in multi-criteria analysis of the selection of intelligent building systems

The availability of innumerable intelligent building (IB) products, and the current dearth of inclusive building component selection methods suggest that decision makers might be confronted with the quandary of forming a particular combination of components to suit the needs of a specific IB project. Despite this problem, few empirical studies have so far been undertaken to analyse the selection of the IB systems, and to identify key selection criteria for major IB systems. This study is designed to fill these research gaps. Two surveys: a general survey and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) survey are proposed to achieve these objectives. The first general survey aims to collect general views from IB experts and practitioners to identify the perceived critical selection criteria, while the AHP survey was conducted to prioritize and assign the important weightings for the perceived criteria in the general survey. Results generally suggest that each IB system was determined by a disparate set of selection criteria with different weightings. ‘Work efficiency’ is perceived to be most important core selection criterion for various IB systems, while ‘user comfort’, ‘safety’ and ‘cost effectiveness’ are also considered to be significant. Two sub-criteria, ‘reliability’ and ‘operating and maintenance costs’, are regarded as prime factors to be considered in selecting IB systems. The current study contributes to the industry and IB research in at least two aspects. First, it widens the understanding of the selection criteria, as well as their degree of importance, of the IB systems. It also adopts a multi-criteria AHP approach which is a new method to analyse and select the building systems in IB. Further research would investigate the inter-relationship amongst the selection criteria.

The influence of cultural selection on strategic communication

Strategic communication is held to be a key process by which organisations respond to environmental uncertainty. In the received view articulated in the literatures of organisational communication and public relations, strategic communication results from collaborative efforts by organisational members to create shared understanding about environmental uncertainty and, as a result of this collective understanding, formulate appropriate communication responses. In this study, I explore how such collaborative efforts towards the development of strategic communication are derived from, and bounded by, culturally shared values and assumptions. Study of the influences of an organisation‟s culture on the formulation of strategic communication is a fundamental conceptual challenge for public relations and, to date, a largely unaddressed area of research. This thesis responds to this challenge by describing a key property of organisational culture – the action of cultural selection (Durham, 1992). I integrate this property of cultural selection to extend and refine the descriptive range of Weick‟s (1969, 1979) classic sociocultural model of organizing. From this integration I propose a new model, the Cultural Selection of Strategic Communication (CSSC). Underpinning the CSSC model is the central proposition that because of the action of cultural selection during organizing processes, the inherently conservative properties of an organisation‟s culture constrain development of effective strategic communication in ways that may be unrelated to the outcomes of “environmental scanning” and other monitoring functions heralded by the public relations literature as central to organisational adaptation. Thus, by examining the development of strategic communication, I describe a central conservative influence on the social ecology of organisations. This research also responds to Butschi and Steyn‟s (2006) call for the development of theory focusing on strategic communication as well as Grunig (2006) and Sriramesh‟s (2007) call for research to further understand the role of culture in public relations practice. In keeping with the explorative and descriptive goals of this study, I employ organisational ethnography to examine the influence of cultural selection on the development of strategic communication. In this methodological approach, I use the technique of progressive contextualisation to compare data from two related but distinct cultural settings. This approach provides a range of descriptive opportunities to permit a deeper understanding of the work of cultural selection. Findings of this study propose that culture, operating as a system of shared and socially transmitted social knowledge, acts through the property of cultural selection to influence decision making, and decrease conceptual variation within a group. The findings support the view that strategic communication, as a cultural product derived from the influence of cultural selection, is an essential feature to understand the social ecology of an organisation.

Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.