Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Proactive management of collision risks in port waters using navigational traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. To address this safety concern, a comprehensive and structured method of collision risk management is necessary. Traditionally management of port water collision risks has been relied on historical collision data. However, this collision-data-based approach is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of samples for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique that uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collision data. This paper proposes a collision risk management method by utilizing the principles of this technique. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which, consequently, has great potential for managing collision risks in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Navigational Safety in Port Waters : Proactive Management of Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

Traditionally navigational safety analyses rely on historical collision data which is often hampered because of low collision counts, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these problems is using navigational traffic conflicts or near-misses as an alternative to the collision data. This book discusses how traffic conflicts can effectively be used in modeling of port water collision risks. Techniques for measuring and predicting collision risks in fairways, intersections, and anchorages are discussed by utilizing advanced statistical models. Risk measurement models, which quantitatively measure collision risks in waterways, are discussed. To predict risks, a hierarchical statistical modeling technique is discussed which identifies the factors influencing the risks. The modeling techniques are illustrated for Singapore port data. Results showed that traffic conflicts are an ethically appealing alternative to collision data for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Determining the informational, navigational and transactional intent of web queries

In this paper, we define and present a comprehensive classification of user intent for Web searching. The classification consists of three hierarchical levels of informational, navigational, and transactional intent. After deriving attributes of each, we then developed a software application that automatically classified queries using a Web search engine log of over a million and a half queries submitted by several hundred thousand users. Our findings show that more than 80% of Web queries are informational in nature, with about 10% each being navigational and transactional. In order to validate the accuracy of our algorithm, we manually coded 400 queries and compared the results from this manual classification to the results determined by the automated method. This comparison showed that the automatic classification has an accuracy of 74%. Of the remaining 25% of the queries, the user intent is vague or multi-faceted, pointing to the need for probabilistic classification. We discuss how search engines can use knowledge of user intent to provide more targeted and relevant results in Web searching.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

San Francisco Bay regional sediment management strategy development

The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), in continued partnership with the San Francisco Bay Long Term Management Strategies (LTMS) Agencies, is undertaking the development of a Regional Sediment Management Plan for the San Francisco Bay estuary and its watershed (estuary). Regional sediment management (RSM) is the integrated management of littoral, estuarine, and riverine sediments to achieve balanced and sustainable solutions to sediment related needs. Regional sediment management recognizes sediment as a resource. Sediment processes are important components of coastal and riverine systems that are integral to environmental and economic vitality. It relies on the context of the sediment system and forecasting the long-range effects of management actions when making local project decisions. In the San Francisco Bay estuary, the sediment system includes the Sacramento and San Joaquin delta, the bay, its local tributaries and the near shore coastal littoral cell. Sediment flows from the top of the watershed, much like water, to the coast, passing through rivers, marshes, and embayments on its way to the ocean. Like water, sediment is vital to these habitats and their inhabitants, providing nutrients and the building material for the habitat itself. When sediment erodes excessively or is impounded behind structures, the sediment system becomes imbalanced, and rivers become clogged or conversely, shorelines, wetlands and subtidal habitats erode. The sediment system continues to change in response both to natural processes and human activities such as climate change and shoreline development. Human activities that influence the sediment system include flood protection programs, watershed management, navigational dredging, aggregate mining, shoreline development, terrestrial, riverine, wetland, and subtidal habitat restoration, and beach nourishment. As observed by recent scientific analysis, the San Francisco Bay estuary system is changing from one that was sediment rich to one that is erosional. Such changes, in conjunction with increasing sea level rise due to climate change, require that the estuary sediment and sediment transport system be managed as a single unit. To better manage the system, its components, and human uses of the system, additional research and knowledge of the system is needed. Fortunately, new sediment science and modeling tools provide opportunities for a vastly improved understanding of the sediment system, predictive capabilities and analysis of potential individual and cumulative impacts of projects. As science informs management decisions, human activities and management strategies may need to be modified to protect and provide for existing and future infrastructure and ecosystem needs. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Model development & application for inland navigational canals

Several agencies in the United Kingdom have interest in the water quality of old navigational canals that have fallen into disuse after the decline of commercial canal transportation. The interested agencies desired a model to predict the water quantity and quality of inland navigational canals in order to evaluate management options to address the issues in the natural streams to which they discharge. Inland navigational canals have unique drivers of their hydrology and water quality compared to either natural streams, irrigation canals, or larger navigational canals connected to seas or oceans. Water in an inland canal is typically sourced from a reservoir and artificially pumped to a summit reach; its movement downhill is controlled by the activity of boats and overflow weirs. Stagnant impoundments between locks, which might normally be expected to result in a decrease in the concentration of sediment-associated pollutants, actually have surprisingly high levels of sediment due to boat traffic. Algal growth in the stagnant reach can be high. This paper describes a canal model developed to simulate hydrology and water quality in inland navigational canals. This model was successfully applied to the Kennet and Avon Canal to predict hydrology, sediment generation and transport, and algal growth and transport. The model is responsive to external influences such as sunlight, temperature, nutrient concentrations, boat traffic, and runoff from the contributing catchment area.