An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.

In-hospital mortality rates after a cemented femoral component for displaced neck of femur fractures

Aim This prospective cohort study investigated whether the use of preoperative anticoagulants is an independent risk factor for the outcomes of surgical treatment of patients with a neck of femur fracture. Methods Data was obtained from a prospectively collected database. All patients admitted for a neck of femur fracture between Nov 2010 and Oct 2011 were included. This resulted in three hundred twenty-eight patients with 330 neck of femur fractures. Four groups were defined; patients preoperatively (i) on aspirin (n = 105); (ii) on clopidogrel (n = 28); (iii) on warfarin (n = 30), and; (iv) without any anticoagulation history (n = 167, the control group). The non-warfarin group included the aspirin group, clopidogrel group and the control group. Primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were the postoperative complications, return to theatre and length of stay. Results Thirteen in-hospital deaths were identified, 4 deaths in the aspirin group, 1 death in the clopidogrel group, 2 deaths in the warfarin group and 6 deaths in the control group. No significant difference in the mortality rates was found between the different groups. Also in the secondary outcomes, no significant difference was found between the four groups. A trend to a higher wound complication rate for the warfarin group was detected. Conclusion The use of clopidrogel or aspirin pre operatively is not an influence on short term patient outcome for patients with a neck of femur fracture. Surgical procedures should not be delayed to reverse their influence.

Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Short and long term mortality rates after a lower limb amputation

Objective To determine mortality rates after a first lower limb amputation and explore the rates for different subpopulations. Methods Retrospective cohort study of all people who underwent a first amputation at or proximal to transtibial level, in an area of 1.7 million people. Analysis with Kaplan-Meier curves and Log Rank tests for univariate associations of psycho-social and health variables. Logistic regression for odds of death at 30-days, 1-year and 5-years. Results 299 people were included. Median time to death was 20.3 months (95%CI: 13.1; 27.5). 30-day mortality = 22%; odds of death 2.3 times higher in people with history of cerebrovascular disease (95%CI: 1.2; 4.7, P = 0.016). 1 year mortality = 44%; odds of death 3.5 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 7.0, P < 0.001). 5-years mortality = 77%; odds of death 5.4 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 16.0,P = 0.003). Variation in mortality rates was most apparent in different age groups; people 75–84 years having better short term outcomes than those younger and older. Conclusions Mortality rates demonstrated the frailty of this population, with almost one quarter of people dying within 30-days, and almost half at 1 year. People with cerebrovascular had higher odds of death at 30 days, and those with renal disease and 1 and 5 years, respectively.

Estimations, from tagging experiments, of mortality rates and other parameters respecting yellowfin and skipjack tuna

ENGLISH: In this paper, a method of analysis described by Gulland (1963) has been used to estimate the fishing mortality rates of tagged yellowfin and skipjack tuna for specific areas and years. Fishing mortality rates obtained for tagged tunas will also represent those for the entire population from which the tagged fishes were drawn, provided the assumptions used and corrections made for these analyses are valid. Total mortality rates of tagged fishes have also been computed. These are not assumed to be directly equivalent to the total mortality rates of the untagged populations,since tagged fishes are subject to additional types of attrition. These additional sources of mortality are also examined in this study. SPANISH: En el presente trabajo se ha usado un método de análisis descrito por Gulland (1963), para estimar las tasas de mortalidad de pesca de los atunes aleta amarilla y barrilete marcados en áreas y años específicos. Las tasas de mortalidad de pesca obtenidas en atunes marcados representarán también las de toda la población, de la cual fueron extraídos, previendo que las suposiciones usadas y las correcciones hechas para estos análisis sean válidas. Las tasas de mortalidad total de los peces marcados también han sido computadas. No se supone que éstas sean directamente equivalentes a las tasas de mortalidad total de las poblaciones no marcadas, ya que los peces marcados están sujetos también a otros tipos de pérdida. Estas otras causas de mortalidad son examinadas también en el presente estudio.

Incorporating fishery observer data into an integrated catch-at-age and multiyear tagging model for estimating mortality rates and abundance

Tagging experiments are a useful tool in fisheries for estimating mortality rates and abundance of fish. Unfortunately, nonreporting of recovered tags is a common problem in commercial fisheries which, if unaccounted for, can render these estimates meaningless. Observers are often employed to monitor a portion of the catches as a means of estimating reporting rates. In our study, observer data were incorporated into an integrated model for multiyear tagging and catch data to provide joint estimates of mortality rates (natural and f ishing), abundance, and reporting rates. Simulations were used to explore model performance under a range of scenarios (e.g., different parameter values, parameter constraints, and numbers of release and recapture years). Overall, results indicated that all parameters can be estimated with reasonable accuracy, but that fishing mortality, reporting rates, and abundance can be estimated with much higher precision than natural mortality. An example of how the model can be applied to provide guidance on experimental design for a large-scale tagging study is presented. Such guidance can contribute to the successful and cost-effective management of tagging programs for commercial fisheries.

Differences in Dolphin Mortality Rates in Night and Day Sets for the U.S. Eastern Tropical Pacific Tuna Purse Seine Fishery

Because dolphins sometimes travel with yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), purse seiners use the dolphins to locate and capture tuna schools. During the process of setting the purse seine nets, dolphins often become entangled and drown before they can be released. Data for the U.S. purse seine fleet in the ETP during 1979-88 show that dolphin mortality rates in sets made during the night are higher than mortality rates in sets made during the day. Even with efforts to reduce nightset mortality rates through the use of high intensity floodlights, night set mortality rates remain higher. The data are also used to simulate a regulation on the fishery aimed at eliminating night sets and show that dolphin mortality rates would decrease.

Quantification and reduction of unobserved mortality rates for snow, southern Tanner, and red king crabs (Chionoecetes opilio, C. bairdi, and Paralithodes camtschaticus) after encounters with trawls on the seafloor

Unobserved mortalities of nontarget species are among the most troubling and difficult issues associated with fishing, especially when those species are targeted by other fisheries. Of such concern are mortalities of crab species of the Bering Sea, which are exposed to bottom trawling from groundfish fisheries. Uncertainty in the management of these fisheries has been exacerbated by unknown mortality rates for crabs struck by trawls. In this study, the mortality rates for 3 species of commercially important crabs—red king crab, (Paralithodes camtschaticus), snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and southern Tanner crab (C. bairdi)—that encounter different components of bottom trawls were estimated through capture of crabs behind the bottom trawl and by evaluation of immediate and delayed mortalities. We used a reflex action mortality predictor to predict delayed mortalities. Estimated mortality rates varied by species and by the part of the trawl gear encountered. Red king crab were more vulnerable than snow or southern Tanner crabs. Crabs were more likely to die after encountering the footrope than the sweeps of the trawl, and higher death rates were noted for the side sections of the footrope than for the center footrope section. Mortality rates were ≤16%, except for red king crab that passed under the trawl wings (32%). Herding devices (sweeps) can expand greatly the area of seafloor from which flatfishes are captured, and they subject crabs in that additional area to lower (4–9%) mortality rates. Raising sweep cables off of the seafloor reduced red king crab mortality rates from 10% to 4%.

Mortality rates of the Poovalan prawn (Metapenaeus dobsoni) along the southwest coast of India with a note on the dynamics of its population

The annual instantaneous total mortality coefficient (Z) for the prawn Metapenaeus dobsoni has been estimated to range from 0.8 to 5.14 by the cumulative catch curve method. Different methods used in the study resulted in wide ranging values of natural mortality (M) (0.6 to 2.303), but the yield per recruit model when superimposed with the absolute yield values revealed the right order to be > 2. The biologically optimum yield of about 18 thousand tons is obtained for an effort of 2,702 trawlers per day for 215 fishing days when the annual exploitation ratio (E) is about 52%.

Mortality rates estimates for Metapenaeus monoceros (Fabricius) of Maputo Bay

The species Metapenaeus monoceros in Maputo Bay recruits to the fishery almost all over the year, but the main recruitment occurs over a short period of time, each year, during April-May. Growth curves were constructed by following the progression of modes over a period of time. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters were estimated as L∞=31.9 mm and K(monthly)=0.25, for males, and L∞=48.3 mm and K(monthly)=0.14, for females (Brinca and Sousa, 1984). Using data on growth and length composition of the catches, the following methods were applied to estimate mortality rates of M. monoceros: estimation of natural mortality by using approximative methods; use of c.p.u.e. data; catch curves; cohort analysis; average age and length methods.