Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire: A population-based random sampling study

The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ) has been shown to have acceptable reliability and factorial, predictive, and concurrent validity. However, the PRMQ has never been administered to a probability sample survey representative of all ages in adulthood, nor have previous studies controlled for factors that are known to influence metamemory, such as affective status. Here, the PRMQ was applied in a survey adopting a probabilistic three-stage cluster sample representative of the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age (20-80 years), and economic status (n=1042). After excluding participants who had conditions that impair memory (depression, anxiety, used psychotropics, and/or had neurological/psychiatric disorders), in the remaining 664 individuals we (a) used confirmatory factor analyses to test competing models of the latent structure of the PRMQ, and (b) studied effects of gender, age, schooling, and economic status on prospective and retrospective memory complaints. The model with the best fit confirmed the same tripartite structure (general memory factor and two orthogonal prospective and retrospective memory factors) previously reported. Women complained more of general memory slips, especially those in the first 5 years after menopause, and there were more complaints of prospective than retrospective memory, except in participants with lower family income.

A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

Challenges for researchers investigating contraceptive use and pregnancy intentions of young women living in urban and rural Australia : face-to-face discussions to increase participation in a web-based survey

Background: It is imperative to understand how to engage young women in research about issues that are important to them. There is limited reliable data on how young women access contraception in Australia especially in rural areas where services may be less available. Objective: This paper identifies the challenges involved in engaging young Australian women aged 18-23 years to participate in a web-based survey on contraception and pregnancy and ensure their ongoing commitment to follow-up web-based surveys. Methods: A group of young women, aged 18-23 years and living in urban and rural New South Wales, Australia, were recruited to participate in face-to-face discussions using several methods of recruitment: direct contact (face-to-face, telephone or email)and snowball sampling by potential participants inviting their friends. All discussions were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Twenty young women participated (urban, n=10: mean age 21.6 years; rural, n=10: 20.0 years) and all used computers or smart phones to access the internet on a daily basis. All participants were concerned about the cost of internet access and utilized free access to social media on their mobile phones. Their willingness to participate in a web-based survey was dependent on incentives with a preference for small financial rewards. Most participants were concerned about their personal details and survey responses remaining confidential and secure. The most appropriate survey would take up to 15 minutes to complete, be a mix of short and long questions and eye-catching with bright colours. Questions on the sensitive topics of sexual activity, contraception and pregnancy were acceptable if they could respond with “I prefer not to answer”. Conclusions: There are demographic, participation and survey design challenges in engaging young women in a web-based survey. Based on our findings, future research efforts are needed to understand the full extent of the role social media and incentives play in the decision of young women to participate in web-based research.

A taxonomy of model-based testing approaches

Model-based testing (MBT) relies on models of a system under test and/or its environment to derive test cases for the system. This paper discusses the process of MBT and defines a taxonomy that covers the key aspects of MBT approaches. It is intended to help with understanding the characteristics, similarities and differences of those approaches, and with classifying the approach used in a particular MBT tool. To illustrate the taxonomy, a description of how three different examples of MBT tools fit into the taxonomy is provided.

Adoption of accountable-eHealth systems by future healthcare professionals: An empirical research model based on the Australian context

This paper provides a first look at the acceptance of Accountable-eHealth systems, a new genre of eHealth systems, designed to manage information privacy concerns that hinder the proliferation of eHealth. The underlying concept of AeH systems is appropriate use of information through after-the-fact accountability for intentional misuse of information by healthcare professionals. An online questionnaire survey was utilised for data collection from three educational institutions in Queensland, Australia. A total of 23 hypothesis relating to 9 constructs were tested using a structural equation modelling technique. A total of 334 valid responses were received. The cohort consisted of medical, nursing and other health related students studying at various levels in both undergraduate and postgraduate courses. The hypothesis testing disproved 7 hypotheses. The empirical research model developed was capable of predicting 47.3% of healthcare professionals’ perceived intention to use AeH systems. A validation of the model with a wider survey cohort would be useful to confirm the current findings.

An insight into the adoption of accountable-eHealth systems: n empirical research model based on the Australian context

This paper provides a first look at the acceptance of Accountable-eHealth (AeH) systems–a new genre of eHealth systems designed to manage information privacy concerns that hinder the proliferation of eHealth. The underlying concept of AeH systems is appropriate use of information through after-the-fact accountability for intentional misuse of information by healthcare professionals. An online questionnaire survey was utilised for data collection from three educational institutions in Queensland, Australia. A total of 23 hypotheses relating to 9 constructs were tested using a structural equation modelling technique. The moderation effects on the hypotheses were also tested based on six moderation factors to understand their role on the designed research model. A total of 334 valid responses were received. The cohort consisted of medical, nursing and other health related students studying at various levels in both undergraduate and postgraduate courses. Hypothesis testing provided sufficient data to accept 7 hypotheses. The empirical research model developed was capable of predicting 47.3% of healthcare professionals’ perceived intention to use AeH systems. All six moderation factors showed significant influence on the research model. A validation of this model with a wider survey cohort is recommended as a future study.

New methods for generating populations in Markov network based EDAs: Decimation strategies and model-based template recombination

Methods for generating a new population are a fundamental component of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs). They serve to transfer the information contained in the probabilistic model to the new generated population. In EDAs based on Markov networks, methods for generating new populations usually discard information contained in the model to gain in efficiency. Other methods like Gibbs sampling use information about all interactions in the model but are computationally very costly. In this paper we propose new methods for generating new solutions in EDAs based on Markov networks. We introduce approaches based on inference methods for computing the most probable configurations and model-based template recombination. We show that the application of different variants of inference methods can increase the EDAs’ convergence rate and reduce the number of function evaluations needed to find the optimum of binary and non-binary discrete functions.

An ecodesign model based on industry experience

With the increase in environmental legislation facing many industrial sectors organisations are now looking for ways to improve their environmental performance. To a large extent organisations have tended to concentrate on their operations inside the "factory gates" with little regard to the environmental performance of the products they produce. However, this is now changing and some organisations are beginning to take a close look at their products and their effects on the environment during its use phase as well as during the manufacture and disposal phases. At Cranfield University we have carried out a 3 year survey of US, Central European and UK companies claiming to practice ecodesign has been undertaken. Thirty electrical and electronic manufacturers were studied, some through in-depth observation of design programmes, most through semi-structured interviews. The survey and action research sought to understand the way in which these companies practised ecodesign and how they .had implemented ecodesign. A common pattern emerged from the data which suggests that companies successfully implementing ecodesign have many similar experiences. The resulting ecodesign model is presented and discussed, and the factors critical to successful implementation at various stages are explored. The factors cover a range of topics including design management, motivation, design tools, design phases, communication and the designers perspective.

Robust 2-D Model-Based Object Recognition

Techniques, suitable for parallel implementation, for robust 2D model-based object recognition in the presence of sensor error are studied. Models and scene data are represented as local geometric features and robust hypothesis of feature matchings and transformations is considered. Bounds on the error in the image feature geometry are assumed constraining possible matchings and transformations. Transformation sampling is introduced as a simple, robust, polynomial-time, and highly parallel method of searching the space of transformations to hypothesize feature matchings. Key to the approach is that error in image feature measurement is explicitly accounted for. A Connection Machine implementation and experiments on real images are presented.

A hierarchical physical model-based approach to predictive control of a thermal power plant for efficient plant-wide disturbance rejection

Extending the work presented in Prasad et al. (IEEE Proceedings on Control Theory and Applications, 147, 523-37, 2000), this paper reports a hierarchical nonlinear physical model-based control strategy to account for the problems arising due to complex dynamics of drum level and governor valve, and demonstrates its effectiveness in plant-wide disturbance handling. The strategy incorporates a two-level control structure consisting of lower-level conventional PI regulators and a higher-level nonlinear physical model predictive controller (NPMPC) for mainly set-point manoeuvring. The lower-level PI loops help stabilise the unstable drum-boiler dynamics and allow faster governor valve action for power and grid-frequency regulation. The higher-level NPMPC provides an optimal load demand (or set-point) transition by effective handling of plant-wide interactions and system disturbances. The strategy has been tested in a simulation of a 200-MW oil-fired power plant at Ballylumford in Northern Ireland. A novel approach is devized to test the disturbance rejection capability in severe operating conditions. Low frequency disturbances were created by making random changes in radiation heat flow on the boiler-side, while condenser vacuum was fluctuating in a random fashion on the turbine side. In order to simulate high-frequency disturbances, pulse-type load disturbances were made to strike at instants which are not an integral multiple of the NPMPC sampling period. Impressive results have been obtained during both types of system disturbances and extremely high rates of load changes, right across the operating range, These results compared favourably with those from a conventional state-space generalized predictive control (GPC) method designed under similar conditions.

Supplier's selection model based on an empirical study

The problem of selecting suppliers/partners is a crucial and important part in the process of decision making for companies that intend to perform competitively in their area of activity. The selection of supplier/partner is a time and resource-consuming task that involves data collection and a careful analysis of the factors that can positively or negatively influence the choice. Nevertheless it is a critical process that affects significantly the operational performance of each company. In this work, there were identified five broad selection criteria: Quality, Financial, Synergies, Cost, and Production System. Within these criteria, it was also included five sub-criteria. After the identification criteria, a survey was elaborated and companies were contacted in order to understand which factors have more weight in their decisions to choose the partners. Interpreted the results and processed the data, it was adopted a model of linear weighting to reflect the importance of each factor. The model has a hierarchical structure and can be applied with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method or Value Analysis. The goal of the paper it's to supply a selection reference model that can represent an orientation/pattern for a decision making on the suppliers/partners selection process

Validation of model-based estimates (synthetic estimates) of the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease for wards in England

Several sets of model-based estimates (synthetic estimates) of the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease for small areas in England have been developed. These have been used in policy documents to indicate which areas are in need of intervention. In general, these models have not been subjected to validity assessment. This paper describes a validity assessment of 16 sets of synthetic estimates, by comparison of the models with national, regional and local survey-based estimates, and local mortality rate estimates. Model-based estimates of the prevalence of smoking, low fruit and vegetable consumption, obesity, hypertension and raised cholesterol are found to be valid.

Estimating non-response bias in a web-based survey of technology acceptance : a case study of unit guide information systems

Surveys are mostly challenged by response rates. Among the various types of survey research, web-based (internet-based/electronic/online) surveys are commonly used for data collection for a geographically diverse population. In surveys with high/low response rates, non-response bias can be a major concern. While it is not always possible to measure the actual bias due to non-response there are different approaches and techniques that help to identify reasons of non-response bias. The aims of this paper are twofold. (1) To provide an appropriate, interesting and important non-response bias case study for future web-based surveys that will provide guidance to other Information Systems researchers. The case-study concerns an online-survey to evaluate a technology acceptance model for Unit Guide Information systems (UGIS). (2) To discuss how nonresponse bias in a web-based technology acceptance study of an information system (UGIS in this case) can be contained and managed.