Survival misperception, time inconsistency, and implications for life-cycle saving and welfare

Some empirical studies firmly reveal that people tend to form overly pessimistic survival expectations for relatively less distant ages and overly optimistic survival expectations for relatively more distant ages. We incorporate this observation into a life-cycle continuous time overlapping-generations model of consumption/saving with a general form for a subjective survival function. Resulting time-inconsistent optimal control problem has been analytically solved. At the micro level, time inconsistency leads to higher consumption at young and old ages, but this alone fails to improve lifetime well-being since micro-level decisions made with a lack of information about true mortality are suboptimal. In general equilibrium, however, such time inconsistent behavior with survival misperception is conducive to aggregate capital accumulation and greater equilibrium bequest income. The latter effects can produce substantial welfare gains. We also note that empirically observed old age optimistic bias is an important phenomenon, as it helps to avoid unrealistic very old-age debt accumulation within a life-cycle model. In addition, if for a given level of optimistic bias we increase early-life pessimism, this would result in slower capital accumulation, lower bequest income, and thus be detrimental to welfare. Since recent literature reports that young-age survival pessimism has grown over time, it raises some concerns.

Effects of reduced contrast on the perception and control of speed when driving

Misperception of speed under low-contrast conditions has been identified as a possible contributor to motor vehicle crashes in fog. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the effects of reduced contrast on drivers’ perception and control of speed while driving under real-world conditions. Fourteen participants drove around a 2.85 km closed road course under three visual conditions: clear view and with two levels of reduced contrast created by diffusing filters on the windscreen and side windows. Three dependent measures were obtained, without view of the speedometer, on separate laps around the road course: verbal estimates of speed; adjustment of speed to instructed levels (25 to 70 km h-1); and estimation of minimum stopping distance. The results showed that drivers traveled more slowly under low-contrast conditions. Reduced contrast had little or no effect on either verbal judgments of speed or estimates of minimum stopping distance. Speed adjustments were significantly slower under low-contrast than clear conditions, indicating that, contrary to studies of object motion, drivers perceived themselves to be traveling faster under conditions of reduced contrast. Under real-world driving conditions, drivers’ ability to perceive and control their speed was not adversely affected by large variations in the contrast of their surroundings. These findings suggest that perceptions of self-motion and object motion involve neural processes that are differentially affected by variations in stimulus contrast as encountered in fog.

Validity of dietary questionnaires in Sri Lankan adults and the association of dietary intake with obesity

Traditionally, infectious diseases and under-nutrition have been considered major health problems in Sri Lanka with little attention paid to obesity and associated non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, the recent Sri Lanka Diabetes and Cardiovascular Study (SLDCS) reported the epidemic level of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Moreover, obesity-associated NCDs is the leading cause of death in Sri Lanka and there is an exponential increase in hospitalization due to NCDs adversely affecting the development of the country. Despite Sri Lanka having a very high prevalence of NCDs and associated mortality, little is known about the causative factors for this burden. It is widely believed that the global NCD epidemic is associated with recent lifestyle changes, especially dietary factors. In the absence of sufficient data on dietary habits in Sri Lanka, successful interventions to manage these serious health issues would not be possible. In view of the current situation the dietary survey was undertaken to assess the intakes of energy, macro-nutrients and selected other nutrients with respect to socio demographic characteristics and the nutritional status of Sri Lankan adults especially focusing on obesity. Another aim of this study was to develop and validate a culturally specific food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to assess dietary risk factors of NCDs in Sri Lankan adults. Data were collected from a subset of the national SLDCS using a multi-stage, stratified, random sampling procedure (n=500). However, data collection in the SLDCS was affected by the prevailing civil war which resulted in no data being collected from Northern and Eastern provinces. To obtain a nationally representative sample, additional subjects (n=100) were later recruited from the two provinces using similar selection criteria. Ethical Approval for this study was obtained from the Ethical Review Committee, Faculty of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka and informed consent was obtained from the subjects before data were collected. Dietary data were obtained using the 24-h Dietary Recall (24HDR) method. Subjects were asked to recall all foods and beverages, consumed over the previous 24-hour period. Respondents were probed for the types of foods and food preparation methods. For the FFQ validation study, a 7-day weight diet record (7-d WDR) was used as the reference method. All foods recorded in the 24 HDR were converted into grams and then intake of energy and nutrients were analysed using NutriSurvey 2007 (EBISpro, Germany) which was modified for Sri Lankan food recipes. Socio-demographic details and body weight perception were collected from interviewer-administrated questionnaire. BMI was calculated and overweight (BMI ≥23 kg.m-2), obesity (BMI ≥25 kg.m-2) and abdominal obesity (Men: WC ≥ 90 cm; Women: WC ≥ 80 cm) were categorized according to Asia-pacific anthropometric cut-offs. The SPSS v. 16 for Windows and Minitab v10 were used for statistical analysis purposes. From a total of 600 eligible subjects, 491 (81.8%) participated of whom 34.5% (n=169) were males. Subjects were well distributed among different socio-economic parameters. A total of 312 different food items were recorded and nutritionists grouped similar food items which resulted in a total of 178 items. After performing step-wise multiple regression, 93 foods explained 90% of the variance for total energy intake, carbohydrates, protein, total fat and dietary fibre. Finally, 90 food items and 12 photographs were selected. Seventy-seven subjects completed (response rate = 65%) the FFQ and 7-day WDR. Estimated mean energy intake (SD) from FFQ (1794±398 kcal) and 7DWR (1698±333 kcal, P<0.001) was significantly different due to a significant overestimation of carbohydrate (~10 g/d, P<0.001) and to some extent fat (~5 g/d, NS). Significant positive correlations were found between the FFQ and 7DWR for energy (r = 0.39), carbohydrate (r = 0.47), protein (r = 0.26), fat (r =0.17) and dietary fiber (r = 0.32). Bland-Altman graphs indicated fairly good agreement between methods with no relationship between bias and average intake of each nutrient examined. The findings from the nutrition survey showed on average, Sri Lankan adults consumed over 14 portions of starch/d; moreover, males consumed 5 more portions of cereal than females. Sri Lankan adults consumed on average 3.56 portions of added sugars/d. Moreover, mean daily intake of fruit (0.43) and vegetable (1.73) portions was well below minimum dietary recommendations (fruits 2 portions/d; vegetables 3 portions/d). The total fruit and vegetable intake was 2.16 portions/d. Daily consumption of meat or alternatives was 1.75 portions and the sum of meat and pulses was 2.78 portions/d. Starchy foods were consumed by all participants and over 88% met the minimum daily recommendations. Importantly, nearly 70% of adults exceeded the maximum daily recommendation for starch (11portions/d) and a considerable proportion consumed larger numbers of starch servings daily, particularly men. More than 12% of men consumed over 25 starch servings/d. In contrast to their starch consumption, participants reported very low intakes of other food groups. Only 11.6%, 2.1% and 3.5% of adults consumed the minimum daily recommended servings of vegetables, fruits, and fruits and vegetables combined, respectively. Six out of ten adult Sri Lankans sampled did not consume any fruits. Milk and dairy consumption was extremely low; over a third of the population did not consume any dairy products and less than 1% of adults consumed 2 portions of dairy/d. A quarter of Sri Lankans did not report consumption of meat and pulses. Regarding protein consumption, 36.2% attained the minimum Sri Lankan recommendation for protein; and significantly more men than women achieved the recommendation of ≥3 servings of meat or alternatives daily (men 42.6%, women 32.8%; P<0.05). Over 70% of energy was derived from carbohydrates (Male:72.8±6.4%, Female:73.9±6.7%), followed by fat (Male:19.9±6.1%, Female:18.5±5.7%) and proteins (Male:10.6±2.1%, Female:10.9±5.6%). The average intake of dietary fiber was 21.3 g/day and 16.3 g/day for males and females, respectively. There was a significant difference in nutritional intake related to ethnicities, areas of residence, education levels and BMI categories. Similarly, dietary diversity was significantly associated with several socio-economic parameters among Sri Lankan adults. Adults with BMI ≥25 kg.m-2 and abdominally obese Sri Lankan adults had the highest diet diversity values. Age-adjusted prevalence (95% confidence interval) of overweight, obesity, and abdominal obesity among Sri Lankan adults were 17.1% (13.8-20.7), 28.8% (24.8-33.1), and 30.8% (26.8-35.2), respectively. Men, compared with women, were less overweight, 14.2% (9.4-20.5) versus 18.5% (14.4-23.3), P = 0.03, less obese, 21.0% (14.9-27.7) versus 32.7% (27.6-38.2), P < .05; and less abdominally obese, 11.9% (7.4-17.8) versus 40.6% (35.1-46.2), P < .05. Although, prevalence of obesity has reached to epidemic level body weight misperception was common among Sri Lankan adults. Two-thirds of overweight males and 44.7% of females considered themselves as in "about right weight". Over one third of both male and female obese subjects perceived themselves as "about right weight" or "underweight". Nearly 32% of centrally obese men and women perceived that their waist circumference is about right. People who perceived overweight or very overweight (n = 154) only 63.6% tried to lose their body weight (n = 98), and quarter of adults seek advices from professionals (n = 39). A number of important conclusions can be drawn from this research project. Firstly, the newly developed FFQ is an acceptable tool for assessing the nutrient intake of Sri Lankans and will assist proper categorization of individuals by dietary exposure. Secondly, a substantial proportion of the Sri Lankan population does not consume a varied and balanced diet, which is suggestive of a close association between the nutrition-related NCDs in the country and unhealthy eating habits. Moreover, dietary diversity is positively associated with several socio-demographic characteristics and obesity among Sri Lankan adults. Lastly, although obesity is a major health issue among Sri Lankan adults, body weight misperception was common among underweight, healthy weight, overweight, and obese adults in Sri Lanka. Over 2/3 of overweight and 1/3 of obese Sri Lankan adults believe that they are in "right weight" or "under-weight" categories.

Gendering and racialising self-determination: Indigenous women and patriarchal whiteness

Indigenous peoples have the right of self-determination, in accordance with international law by virtue of which tehy may freely determine their political status and institutions and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development. an integral part of this is the right to autonomy and self-government. The essential feature of racism is not hostility or misperception, but rather the defense [sic] of a system from which advantage is derived on the basis of race. The manner in which the defense [sic] is articulated - either as hostility or subtlety - is not nearly as important as the fact that it insures the continuation of a privileged relationship.

Factors associated with medication adherence among tuberculosis patients in Timor-Leste

This thesis investigated medication adherence among people living with tuberculosis in Timor Leste. Suboptimal adherence was commonly reported, and was influenced by service inaccessibility, family poverty, patients' absence of disease symptoms and misperception of recovery, untreated depression and a popular cultural belief that luck or chance determines health outcomes. The study has implications for improving health literacy and counselling programs to achieve effective adherence to medication and good health outcomes.

The enhanced Russell-based directional distance measure with undesirable outputs: Numerical example considering CO2 emissions

Following the spirit of the enhanced Russell graph measure, this paper proposes an enhanced Russell-based directional distance measure (ERBDDM) model for dealing with desirable and undesirable outputs in data envelopment analysis (DEA) and allowing some inputs and outputs to be zero. The proposed method is analogous to the output oriented slacks-based measure (OSBM) and directional output distance function approach because it allows the expansion of desirable outputs and the contraction of undesirable outputs. The ERBDDM is superior to the OSBM model and traditional approach since it is not only able to identify all the inefficiency slacks just as the latter, but also avoids the misperception and misspecification of the former, which fails to identify null-jointness production of goods and bads. The paper also imposes a strong complementary slackness condition on the ERBDDM model to deal with the occurrence of multiple projections. Furthermore, we use the Penn Table data to help us explore our new approach in the context of environmental policy evaluations and guidance for performance improvements in 111 countries.

Research bed for unit selection based text to speech synthesis

The paper describes a modular, unit selection based TTS framework, which can be used as a research bed for developing TTS in any new language, as well as studying the effect of changing any parameter during synthesis. Using this framework, TTS has been developed for Tamil. Synthesis database consists of 1027 phonetically rich prerecorded sentences. This framework has already been tested for Kannada. Our TTS synthesizes intelligible and acceptably natural speech, as supported by high mean opinion scores. The framework is further optimized to suit embedded applications like mobiles and PDAs. We compressed the synthesis speech database with standard speech compression algorithms used in commercial GSM phones and evaluated the quality of the resultant synthesized sentences. Even with a highly compressed database, the synthesized output is perceptually close to that with uncompressed database. Through experiments, we explored the ambiguities in human perception when listening to Tamil phones and syllables uttered in isolation,thus proposing to exploit the misperception to substitute for missing phone contexts in the database. Listening experiments have been conducted on sentences synthesized by deliberately replacing phones with their confused ones.

Stereo display with time-multiplexed focal adjustment

In stereo displays, binocular disparity creates a striking impression of depth. However, such displays present focus cues - blur and accommodation - that specify a different depth than disparity, thereby causing a conflict. This conflict causes several problems including misperception of the 3D layout, difficulty fusing binocular images, and visual fatigue. To address these problems, we developed a display that preserves the advantages of conventional stereo displays, while presenting correct or nearly correct focus cues. In our new stereo display each eye views a display through a lens that switches between four focal distances at very high rate. The switches are synchronized to the display, so focal distance and the distance being simulated on the display are consistent or nearly consistent with one another. Focus cues for points in-between the four focal planes are simulated by using a depth-weighted blending technique. We will describe the design of the new display, discuss the retinal images it forms under various conditions, and describe an experiment that illustrates the effectiveness of the display in maximizing visual performance while minimizing visual fatigue. © 2009 SPIE-IS&T.

Mental illness or mental distress; stigma and concealment in University students - a discussion paper

This discussion paper addresses the issue of mental distress, sometimes mis- perceived or misinterpreted as mental illness. The
focus is on positive psychology. Reflecting in part on a UK-based study with younger University students studying to health
related degrees, nursing, midwifery and medicine (N = 12), many of the students were apparently suffering dis-stress with
disordered eating at least in part being used as a coping mechanism. However notwithstanding that they were at the end of
their first year studies in health, a significant number of the students interpreted their approach to eating as a mental illness.
Consequently, many within the study felt stigmatised and were reluctant to acknowledge certainly to the University health care
authorities that there was an issue; perceiving both academic and career/professional consequences of mental health labelling. The
paper approaches the issue of mental health from a health promoting perspective, reflecting against the theory of salutogenesis
and its focus within the three dimensions of comprehensibility, manageability and meaningfulness as an approach to building
resilience and managing stressors to better facilitate a sense of coherence. Complex manifestations of distress and poor coping
mechanisms can in some cases be misinterpreted or miss perceived as mental illness. Promoting mental health and reducing the
stigma of mental illness or the misperception of mental distress as mental illness, would need to be addressed in order to more
effectively outreach certainly to younger University students who might be at risk. The focus should be on how better to promote
their sense of coherence.

Information processing in sleep-onset insomnia : a test of the neurocognitive model /

The present thesis study is a systematic investigation of information processing at sleep onset, using auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) as a test of the neurocognitive model of insomnia. Insomnia is an extremely prevalent disorder in society resulting in problems with daytime functioning (e.g., memory, concentration, job performance, mood, job and driving safety). Various models have been put forth in an effort to better understand the etiology and pathophysiology of this disorder. One of the newer models, the neurocognitive model of insomnia, suggests that chronic insomnia occurs through conditioned central nervous system arousal. This arousal is reflected through increased information processing which may interfere with sleep initiation or maintenance. The present thesis employed event-related potentials as a direct method to test information processing during the sleep-onset period. Thirteen poor sleepers with sleep-onset insomnia and 1 2 good sleepers participated in the present study. All poor sleepers met the diagnostic criteria for psychophysiological insomnia and had a complaint of problems with sleep initiation. All good sleepers reported no trouble sleeping and no excessive daytime sleepiness. Good and poor sleepers spent two nights at the Brock University Sleep Research Laboratory. The first night was used to screen for sleep disorders; the second night was used to investigate information processing during the sleep-onset period. Both groups underwent a repeated sleep-onsets task during which an auditory oddball paradigm was delivered. Participants signalled detection of a higher pitch target tone with a button press as they fell asleep. In addition, waking alert ERPs were recorded 1 hour before and after sleep on both Nights 1 and 2.As predicted by the neurocognitive model of insomnia, increased CNS activity was found in the poor sleepers; this was reflected by their smaller amplitude P2 component seen during wake of the sleep-onset period. Unlike the P2 component, the Nl, N350, and P300 did not vary between the groups. The smaller P2 seen in our poor sleepers indicates that they have a deficit in the sleep initiation processes. Specifically, poor sleepers do not disengage their attention from the outside environment to the same extent as good sleepers during the sleep-onset period. The lack of findings for the N350 suggest that this sleep component may be intact in those with insomnia and that it is the waking components (i.e., Nl, P2) that may be leading to the deficit in sleep initiation. Further, it may be that the mechanism responsible for the disruption of sleep initiation in the poor sleepers is most reflected by the P2 component. Future research investigating ERPs in insomnia should focus on the identification of the components most sensitive to sleep disruption. As well, methods should be developed in order to more clearly identify the various types of insomnia populations in research contexts (e.g., psychophysiological vs. sleep-state misperception) and the various individual (personality characteristics, motivation) and environmental factors (arousal-related variables) that influence particular ERP components. Insomnia has serious consequences for health, safety, and daytime functioning, thus research efforts should continue in order to help alleviate this highly prevalent condition.

Effets principaux et modérateurs de l'écart de perception de la prévalence de la consommation de cannabis à l'école sur la consommation et les méfaits attribués à l'adolescence

La majorité des adolescents québécois auront consommé une substance psychoactive avant la fin de leurs études secondaires. Parmi les facteurs ayant une influence sur cette consommation, on retrouve les normes sociales, dont les normes descriptives. Ce mémoire vise à évaluer l’impact des normes descriptives du milieu scolaire sur les comportements d’usage de cannabis chez les adolescents québécois, ainsi que sur les méfaits attribués à cette consommation. Cette étude examine les liens entre l’écart de perception de prévalence de consommation de cannabis au sein d’une école et la consommation ainsi que les conséquences attribuées à cet usage par les élèves. De plus, elle examine le rôle modérateur des écarts de perception de la prévalence de consommation sur la progression de la consommation, ainsi que sur le lien entre la consommation de cannabis en secondaire 4 et des conséquences attribuées à cette consommation un an plus tard. Provenant de la Stratégie d’Intervention Agir Autrement, l’échantillon de cette étude est constitué de 1601 élèves suivis de secondaire 2 à secondaire 5. Des analyses de régression logistique multinomiale ont été conduites et ont montré que plus les élèves surestiment la prévalence de consommation de cannabis au sein de leur école, plus ils ont de chance de consommer du cannabis et d’attribuer des conséquences négatives à leur consommation un an plus tard. Les résultats ont également montré un effet modérateur positif de l’écart de perception de la prévalence sur la progression de la consommation de cannabis de secondaire 4 à 5, spécifiquement chez les élèves ayant une faible consommation en secondaire 4. Finalement, les résultats ont montré un deuxième effet modérateur de l’écart de perception de prévalence, celui-ci sur le lien entre la consommation de cannabis en secondaire 4 et l’attribution de conséquences négatives à cette consommation un an plus tard. Précisément, les élèves ayant une faible consommation et qui surestiment la prévalence de consommation de cannabis au sein de leur école auront plus de chance d’attribuer plusieurs méfaits à leur consommation en secondaire 5 que d’en attribuer aucun. Par contre, les élèves ayant une consommation de cannabis élevée en secondaire 4 ne rapportent pas plus ni moins de conséquences selon leur estimation de prévalence. Les implications de ces résultats sont discutées.

Implicaciones de la política de seguridad democrática del gobierno de Álvaro Uribe en el desarrollo de las estrategias de seguridad nacional de Venezuela, Brasil y Perú

La presente monografía tiene por objeto estudiar y analizar las reacciones generadas en Venezuela, Brasil y Perú ante la implementación de la Política de Seguridad Democrática en Colombia, pues el desarrollo de una política de seguridad nacional termina generando en múltiples ocasiones lo que Robert Jervis denomina un Dilema de Seguridad. Así pues se hará necesario demostrar los resultados de dicha política para la seguridad nacional del Estado colombiano para posteriormente evaluar las implicaciones para la seguridad de los Estados vecinos y finalmente estudiar los mecanismos adoptados por estos con el fin de preservar su seguridad y disminuir la posible amenaza representada por Colombia.