Development of empirical equations for irradiance profile of a standard parabolic trough collector using Monte Carlo ray tracing technique

Irradiance profile around the receiver tube (RT) of a parabolic trough collector (PTC) is a key effect of optical performance that affects the overall energy performance of the collector. Thermal performance evaluation of the RT relies on the appropriate determination of the irradiance profile. This article explains a technique in which empirical equations were developed to calculate the local irradiance as a function of angular location of the RT of a standard PTC using a vigorously verified Monte Carlo ray tracing model. A large range of test conditions including daily normal insolation, spectral selective coatings and glass envelop conditions were selected from the published data by Dudley et al. [1] for the job. The R2 values of the equations are excellent that vary in between 0.9857 and 0.9999. Therefore, these equations can be used confidently to produce realistic non-uniform boundary heat flux profile around the RT at normal incidence for conjugate heat transfer analyses of the collector. Required values in the equations are daily normal insolation, and the spectral selective properties of the collector components. Since the equations are polynomial functions, data processing software can be employed to calculate the flux profile very easily and quickly. The ultimate goal of this research is to make the concentrating solar power technology cost competitive with conventional energy technology facilitating its ongoing research.

Controlled Monte Carlo data generation for statistical damage identification employing Mahalanobis squared distance

The use of Mahalanobis squared distance–based novelty detection in statistical damage identification has become increasingly popular in recent years. The merit of the Mahalanobis squared distance–based method is that it is simple and requires low computational effort to enable the use of a higher dimensional damage-sensitive feature, which is generally more sensitive to structural changes. Mahalanobis squared distance–based damage identification is also believed to be one of the most suitable methods for modern sensing systems such as wireless sensors. Although possessing such advantages, this method is rather strict with the input requirement as it assumes the training data to be multivariate normal, which is not always available particularly at an early monitoring stage. As a consequence, it may result in an ill-conditioned training model with erroneous novelty detection and damage identification outcomes. To date, there appears to be no study on how to systematically cope with such practical issues especially in the context of a statistical damage identification problem. To address this need, this article proposes a controlled data generation scheme, which is based upon the Monte Carlo simulation methodology with the addition of several controlling and evaluation tools to assess the condition of output data. By evaluating the convergence of the data condition indices, the proposed scheme is able to determine the optimal setups for the data generation process and subsequently avoid unnecessarily excessive data. The efficacy of this scheme is demonstrated via applications to a benchmark structure data in the field.

A sequential Monte Carlo framework for adaptive Bayesian model discrimination designs using mutual information

In this paper we present a unified sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework for performing sequential experimental design for discriminating between a set of models. The model discrimination utility that we advocate is fully Bayesian and based upon the mutual information. SMC provides a convenient way to estimate the mutual information. Our experience suggests that the approach works well on either a set of discrete or continuous models and outperforms other model discrimination approaches.

A comparison of surface doses for very small field size x-ray beams : Monte Carlo calculations and radiochromic film measurements

Stereotactic radiosurgery treatments involve the delivery of very high doses for a small number of fractions. To date, there is limited data in terms of the skin dose for the very small field sizes used in these treatments. In this work, we determine relative surface doses for small size circular collimators as used in stereotactic radiosurgery treatments. Monte Carlo calculations were performed using the BEAMnrc code with a model of the Novalis 15 Trilogy linear accelerator and the BrainLab circular collimators. The surface doses were calculated at the ICRU skin dose depth of 70 m all using the 6 MV SRS x-ray beam. The calculated surface doses varied between 15 – 12% with decreasing values as the field size increased from 4 to 30 mm. In comparison, surface doses were measured using Gafchromic EBT3 film positioned at the surface of a Virtual Water phantom. The absolute agreement between calculated and measured surface doses was better than 2.5% which is well within the 20 uncertainties of the Monte Carlo calculations and the film measurements. Based on these results, we have shown that the Gafchromic EBT3 film is suitable for surface dose estimates in very small size fields as used in SRS.

Using narrow beam profiles to quantify focal spot size, for accurate Monte Carlo simulations of SRS/SRT systems

This study investigates the variation of photon field penumbra shape with initial electron beam diameter, for very narrow beams. A Varian Millenium MLC (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, USA) and a Brainlab m3 microMLC (Brainlab AB. Feldkirchen, Germany) were used, with one Varian iX linear accelerator, to produce fields that were (nominally) 0.20 cm across. Dose profiles for these fields were measured using radiochromic film and compared with the results of simulations completed using BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc, where the initial electron beam was set to FWHM = 0.02, 0.10, 0.12, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.50 cm. Increasing the electron-beam FWHM produced increasing occlusion of the photon source by the closely spaced collimator leaves and resulted in blurring of the simulated profile widths from 0.26 to 0.64 cm, for the MLC, from 0.12 to 0.43 cm, for the microMLC. Comparison with measurement data suggested that the electron spot size in the clinical linear accelerator was between FWHM = 0.10 and 0.15 cm, encompassing the result of our previous output-factor based work, which identified a FWHM of 0.12. Investigation of narrow-beam penumbra variation has been found to be a useful procedure, with results varying noticeably with linear accelerator spot size and allowing FWHM estimates obtained using other methods to be verified.

The influence of Monte Carlo source parameters on detector design and dose perturbation in small field dosimetry

To obtain accurate Monte Carlo simulations of small radiation fields, it is important model the initial source parameters (electron energy and spot size) accurately. However recent studies have shown that small field dosimetry correction factors are insensitive to these parameters. The aim of this work is to extend this concept to test if these parameters affect dose perturbations in general, which is important for detector design and calculating perturbation correction factors. The EGSnrc C++ user code cavity was used for all simulations. Varying amounts of air between 0 and 2 mm were deliberately introduced upstream to a diode and the dose perturbation caused by the air was quantified. These simulations were then repeated using a range of initial electron energies (5.5 to 7.0 MeV) and electron spot sizes (0.7 to 2.2 FWHM). The resultant dose perturbations were large. For example 2 mm of air caused a dose reduction of up to 31% when simulated with a 6 mm field size. However these values did not vary by more than 2 % when simulated across the full range of source parameters tested. If a detector is modified by the introduction of air, one can be confident that the response of the detector will be the same across all similar linear accelerators and the Monte Carlo modelling of each machine is not required.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Monte Carlo simulations of small field output factors in solid phantoms

Introduction Total scatter factor (or output factor) in megavoltage photon dosimetry is a measure of relative dose relating a certain field size to a reference field size. The use of solid phantoms has been well established for output factor measurements, however to date these phantoms have not been tested with small fields. In this work, we evaluate the water equivalency of a number of solid phantoms for small field output factor measurements using the EGSnrc Monte Carlo code. Methods The following small square field sizes were simulated using BEAMnrc: 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 30 mm. Each simulated phantom geometry was created in DOSXYZnrc and consisted of a silicon diode (of length and width 1.5 mm and depth 0.5 mm) submersed in the phantom at a depth of 5 g/cm2. The source-to-detector distance was 100 cm for all simulations. The dose was scored in a single voxel at the location of the diode. Interaction probabilities and radiation transport parameters for each material were created using custom PEGS4 files. Results A comparison of the resultant output factors in the solid phantoms, compared to the same factors in a water phantom are shown in Fig. 1. The statistical uncertainty in each point was less than or equal to 0.4 %. The results in Fig. 1 show that the density of the phantoms affected the output factor results, with higher density materials (such as PMMA) resulting in higher output factors. Additionally, it was also calculated that scaling the depth for equivalent path length had negligible effect on the output factor results at these field sizes. Discussion and conclusions Electron stopping power and photon mass energy absorption change minimally with small field size [1]. Also, it can be seen from Fig. 1 that the difference from water decreases with increasing field size. Therefore, the most likely cause for the observed discrepancies in output factors is differing electron disequilibrium as a function of phantom density. When measuring small field output factors in a solid phantom, it is important that the density is very close to that of water.

Monte Carlo dosimetry for stereotactic radiosurgery

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatments for brain cancers require small and precisely shaped photon beams. These beams can be generated by fitting a linear accelerator with a micro-multileaf collimator (mMLC) such as the BrainLAB m3, which offers greater flexibility for field shaping than standard SRS cone collimators

Field validation of controlled Monte Carlo data generation for statistical damage identification employing Mahalanobis squared distance

This article presents the field applications and validations for the controlled Monte Carlo data generation scheme. This scheme was previously derived to assist the Mahalanobis squared distance–based damage identification method to cope with data-shortage problems which often cause inadequate data multinormality and unreliable identification outcome. To do so, real-vibration datasets from two actual civil engineering structures with such data (and identification) problems are selected as the test objects which are then shown to be in need of enhancement to consolidate their conditions. By utilizing the robust probability measures of the data condition indices in controlled Monte Carlo data generation and statistical sensitivity analysis of the Mahalanobis squared distance computational system, well-conditioned synthetic data generated by an optimal controlled Monte Carlo data generation configurations can be unbiasedly evaluated against those generated by other set-ups and against the original data. The analysis results reconfirm that controlled Monte Carlo data generation is able to overcome the shortage of observations, improve the data multinormality and enhance the reliability of the Mahalanobis squared distance–based damage identification method particularly with respect to false-positive errors. The results also highlight the dynamic structure of controlled Monte Carlo data generation that makes this scheme well adaptive to any type of input data with any (original) distributional condition.

Angular distribution of carbon ion flux in a nanotube array during the plasma process by the Monte Carlo technique

Angular distribution of microscopic ion fluxes around nanotubes arranged into a dense ordered pattern on the surface of the substrate is studied by means of multiscale numerical simulation. The Monte Carlo technique was used to show that the ion current density is distributed nonuniformly around the carbon nanotubes arranged into a dense rectangular array. The nonuniformity factor of the ion current flux reaches 7 in dense (5× 1018 m-3) plasmas for a nanotube radius of 25 nm, and tends to 1 at plasma densities below 1× 1017 m-3. The results obtained suggest that the local density of carbon adatoms on the nanotube side surface, at areas facing the adjacent nanotubes of the pattern, can be high enough to lead to the additional wall formation and thus cause the single- to multiwall structural transition, and other as yet unexplained nanoscience phenomena.

Assessment on the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Both environmental economists and policy makers have shown a great deal of interest in the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency. In line with the modern resources available, however, no contribution is brought to the environmental economics field with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) application, which enables simulation from a distribution of a Markov chain and simulating from the chain until it approaches equilibrium. The probability density functions gained prominence with the advantages over classical statistical methods in its simultaneous inference and incorporation of any prior information on all model parameters. This paper concentrated on this point with the application of MCMC to the database of China, the largest developing country with rapid economic growth and serious environmental pollution in recent years. The variables cover the economic output and pollution abatement cost from the year 1992 to 2003. We test the causal direction between pollution abatement cost and environmental efficiency with MCMC simulation. We found that the pollution abatement cost causes an increase in environmental efficiency through the algorithm application, which makes it conceivable that the environmental policy makers should make more substantial measures to reduce pollution in the near future.

Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.