Exploratory spatial analysis of social and environmental factors associated with the incidence of Ross River Virus in Brisbane, Australia

We used geographic information systems and a spatial analysis approach to explore the pattern of Ross River virus (RRV) incidence in Brisbane, Australia. Climate, vegetation and socioeconomic data in 2001 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Brisbane City Council and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Information on the RRV cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Spatial and multiple negative binomial regression models were used to identify the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of RRV transmission. The results show that RRV activity was primarily concentrated in the northeastern, northwestern, and southeastern regions in Brisbane. Multiple negative binomial regression models showed that the spatial pattern of RRV disease in Brisbane seemed to be determined by a combination of local ecologic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.

Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

Illegal pedestrian crossing at signalised intersections : Incidence and relative risk

Illegal pedestrian behaviour is common and is reported as a factor in many pedestrian crashes. Since walking is being promoted for its health and environmental benefits, minimisation of its associated risks is of interest. The risk associated with illegal road crossing is unclear, and better information would assist in setting a rationale for enforcement and priorities for public education. An observation survey of pedestrian behaviour was conducted at signalised intersections in the Brisbane CBD (Queensland, Australia) on typical workdays, using behavioural categories that were identifiable in police crash reports. The survey confirmed high levels of crossing against the lights, or close enough to the lights that they should legally have been used. Measures of exposure for crossing legally, against the lights, and close to the lights were generated by weighting the observation data. Relative risk ratios were calculated for these categories using crash data from the observation sites and adjacent midblocks. Crossing against the lights and crossing close to the lights both exhibited a crash risk per crossing event approximately eight times that of legal crossing at signalised intersections. The implications of these results for enforcement and education are discussed, along with the limitations of the study.

Clinical whole-body skin examination reduces the incidence of thick melanomas

Survival from melanoma is strongly related to tumour thickness, thus earlier diagnosis has the potential to reduce mortality from this disease. However, in the absence of conclusive evidence that clinical skin examination reduces mortality, evidence-based assessments do not recommend population screening. We aimed to assess whether clinical whole-body skin examination is associated with a reduced incidence of thick melanoma and also whether screening is associated with an increased incidence of thin lesions (possible overdiagnosis). A population-based case-control study of all Queensland residents aged 20-75 years with a histologically confirmed first primary invasive cutaneous melanoma diagnosed between January 2000 and December 2003. Telephone interviews were completed by 3,762 eligible cases (78.0%) and 3,824 eligible controls (50.4%) Whole-body clinical skin examination in the three years before diagnosis was associated with a 14% lower risk of being diagnosed with a thick melanoma (>0.75mm) (OR= 0.86, 95% CI=0.75, 0.98). Risk decreased for melanomas of increasing thickness: the risk of being diagnosed with a melanoma 0.76-1.49mm was reduced by 7% (OR=0.93, 95% CI 0.79, 1.10), by 17% for melanomas 1.50-2.99mm (OR=0.83, 95% CI=0.65, 1.05) and by 40% for melanomas ≥3mm (OR=0.60, 95% CI=0.43, 0.83). Screening was associated with a 38% higher risk of being diagnosed with a thin invasive melanoma (≤0.75mm) (OR=1.38, 95% CI=1.22, 1.56). This is the strongest evidence to date that whole-body clinical skin examination reduces the incidence of thick melanoma. Because survival from melanoma is strongly related to tumour thickness, these results suggest that screening would reduce melanoma mortality.

Changes in Level of Virus Accumulation and Incidence of Infection are Critical in the Characterization of Rice Tungro Bacilliform Virus (RTBV) Resistance in Rice

Analysis by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay showed that Rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) accumulated in a cyclic pattern from early to late stages of infection in tungro-susceptible variety, Taichung Native 1 (TN1), and resistant variety, Balimau Putih, singly infected with RTBV or co-infected with RTBV+Rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV). These changes in virus accumulation resulted in differences in RTBV levels and incidence of infection. The virus levels were expressed relative to those of the susceptible variety and the incidence of infection was assessed at different weeks after inoculation. At a particular time point, RTBV levels in TN1 or Balimau Putih singly infected with RTBV were not significantly different from the virus level in plants co-infected with RTBV+RTSV. The relative RTBV levels in Balimau Putih either singly infected with RTBV or co-infected with RTBV+RTSV were significantly lower than those in TN1. The incidence of RTBV infection varied at different times in Balimau Putih but not in TN1, and to determine the actual infection, the number of plants that became infected at least once anytime during the 4wk observation period was considered. Considering the changes in RTBV accumulation, new parameters for analyzing RTBV resistance were established. Based on these parameters, Balimau Putih was characterized having resistance to virus accumulation although the actual incidence of infection was >75%.

Incidence, severity and correlates of bicycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Bicycle injuries, particularly those resulting from single bicycle crashes, are underreported in both police and hospital records. Data on cyclist characteristics and crash circumstances are also often lacking. As a result, the ability to develop comprehensive injury prevention policies is hampered. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, severity, cyclist characteristics, and crash circumstances associated with cycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia. A cross-sectional study of Queensland cyclists was conducted in 2009. Respondents (n=2056) completed an online survey about their cycling experiences, including cycling injuries. Logistic regression modelling was used to examine the associations between demographic and cycling behaviour variables with experiencing cycling injuries in the past year, and, separately, with serious cycling injuries requiring a trip to a hospital. Twenty-seven percent of respondents (n=545) reported injuries, and 6% (n=114) reported serious injuries. In multivariable modelling, reporting an injury was more likely for respondents who had cycled <5 years, compared to ≥10 years (p<0.005); cycled for competition (p=0.01); or experienced harassment from motor vehicle occupants (p<0.001). There were no gender differences in injury incidence, and respondents who cycled for transport did not have an increased risk of injury. Reporting a serious injury was more likely for those whose injury involved other road users (p<0.03). Along with environmental and behavioural approaches for reducing collisions and near-collisions with motor vehicles, interventions that improve the design and maintenance of cycling infrastructure, increase cyclists’ skills, and encourage safe cycling behaviours and bicycle maintenance will also be important for reducing the overall incidence of cycling injuries.

Identification of area-level influences on regions of high cancer incidence in Queensland, Australia : a classification tree approach

Background: Strategies for cancer reduction and management are targeted at both individual and area levels. Area-level strategies require careful understanding of geographic differences in cancer incidence, in particular the association with factors such as socioeconomic status, ethnicity and accessibility. This study aimed to identify the complex interplay of area-level factors associated with high area-specific incidence of Australian priority cancers using a classification and regression tree (CART) approach. Methods: Area-specific smoothed standardised incidence ratios were estimated for priority-area cancers across 478 statistical local areas in Queensland, Australia (1998-2007, n=186,075). For those cancers with significant spatial variation, CART models were used to identify whether area-level accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity were associated with high area-specific incidence. Results: The accessibility of a person’s residence had the most consistent association with the risk of cancer diagnosis across the specific cancers. Many cancers were likely to have high incidence in more urban areas, although male lung cancer and cervical cancer tended to have high incidence in more remote areas. The impact of socioeconomic status and ethnicity on these associations differed by type of cancer. Conclusions: These results highlight the complex interactions between accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity in determining cancer incidence risk.