Dealing with Post-GFC stress disorder : Bwembya Chikolwa quoted by Christine Retschlag for Property Australia magazine 4th March 2010

Has the GFC really changed the thinking of the property industry? Or are investment managers suffering from post-GFC stress disorder fated to repeat the mistakes of the past? Christine Retschlag reports on the mindset of the market.

Project-based IHRM : the emerging approach for the post-GFC world?

This paper reviews some past emphases in IHRM, and recommends that IHR teachers and practitioners consider using project management methodologies to tighten the focus of our diverse activities.

Australia's GFC hangover

The credit crisis of the past few years has affected the development industry like no other. Whilst early signs of loosening in bank credit policy are emerging the ability of developers to proceed with new projects is still being constrained by their inability to obtain project finance.

Towards a global carbon integrity system : learning from the GFC and avoiding a GCC

This paper examines some of the central global ethical and governance challenges of climate change and carbon emis-sions reduction in relation to globalization, the “global financial crisis” (GFC), and unsustainable conceptions of the “good life”, and argues in favour of the development of a global carbon “integrity system”. It is argued that a funda-mental driver of our climate problems is the incipient spread of an unsustainable Western version of the “good life”, where resource-intensive, high-carbon western lifestyles, although frequently criticized as unsustainable and deeply unsatisfying, appear to have established an unearned ethical legitimacy. While the ultimate solution to climate change is the development of low carbon lifestyles, the paper argues that it is also important that economic incentives support and stimulate that search: the sustainable versions of the good life provide an ethical pull, whilst the incentives provide an economic push. Yet, if we are going to secure sustainable low carbon lifestyles, it is argued, we need more than the ethical pull and the economic push. Each needs to be institutionalized—built into the governance of global, regional, national, sub-regional, corporate and professional institutions. Where currently weakness in each exacerbates the weaknesses in others, it is argued that governance reform is required in all areas supporting sustainable, low carbon versions of the good life.

Tracking the Brisbane residential property market : Post GFC

Prior to the GFC, Brisbane and Perth were experiencing the highest increases in median residential house prices, compared to the other major Australian cities, due to strong demand for both owner occupied and investment residential property. In both these cities, a major driver of this demand and subsequent increases in residential property prices was the strong resources sector. With the onset of the GFC in 2008, the resources and construction sectors in Queensland contracted significantly and this had both direct and indirect impacts on the Brisbane residential property market. However, this impact was not consistent across Brisbane residential property sectors. The affect on houses and units differed, as did the impact based on geographic location and suburb value. This paper tracks Brisbane residential property sales listings, sales and returns over the period February 2009 to July 2010 and provides an analysis of the residential market for 24 Brisbane suburbs. These suburbs cover main residential areas of Brisbane and are based on an equal number of low, medium and high socioeconomic areas of Brisbane. This assessment of socio-economic status for the suburbs is based on both median household income and median house price. The analysis will cover both free standing residential property and residential units/townhouses/villas. The results will show how each of these residential property sub markets have performed following the GFC.

An assessment of development funding for new housing post GFC in Queensland, Australia

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify changes in bank lending criteria due to the GFC and to explore the associated impacts on new housing supply in Queensland, Australia. Design/methodology/approach: This research involves a survey of each of Australia’s big four banks, as well as two prominent arrangers of development finance. Data on key lending criteria was collected: Pre GFC, during the GFC, and GFC recovery stage. Findings: The GFC has resulted in a retraction of funds available for residential development. The few institutions lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive loan covenants including: low loan to value ratios, high cash equity requirements, regional “no go” zones, and demonstrated borrower track record. The ability of developers to proceed with new housing developments is being constrained by their inability to obtain sufficient finance. Research limitations/implications: This research uses survey data, together with an understanding of the project finance process to extrapolate impacts on the residential development industry across Queensland. No regional or sub-market analysis is included. Future research will include subsequent surveys to track any loosening of credit policies over time and sub-market sector analysis. Practical implications: The inability to obtain project finance is identified as a key constraint to new housing supply. This research will inform policy makers and provide important quantitative evidence of the importance of availability of development finance in the housing supply chain. Social implications: Queensland is facing a supply shortfall, which if not corrected, may lead to upward pressure on house prices and falling housing affordability. Originality/value: There is very little academic research on development funding. This research is unique in linking bank lending criteria to new housing supply and demonstrating the impact on the development industry.

Reviewing the impact of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on international property markets and property professions

The global financial crisis that impacted on all world economies throughout 2008 and 2009. This impact has not been confined to the finance industries but has had a direct and indirect impact on the property industry worldwide from both an ownership and investment perspective. Property markets have experienced various levels of impact from this event, but universally the greatest impact has been on the traditional commercial and industrial property sectors from the investor perspective, with investment and superannuation funds reporting significant declines in the reported value of these investments. Despite the very direct impact of these declining property markets, the GFC has also had a very significant indirect impact on the various property professions and how these professions are now operating in this declining property market. Of particular interest is the comparison of the property market forecasts in late 2007 to the actual results in 2008/2009.

International tax cooperation in the Post-GFC era

Over the last five years we have observed the fallout from the global financial crisis (GFC). International cooperation and jointly adopted policies have dominated many of the solutions to the problems which have arisen. Initially, many nations in response to the GFC, implemented a two pronged short term solution by undertaking fiscal intervention and delivering rescue packages aimed at first, bailing out financial institutions and second, preventing or minimising the impact of a recession. Both programs involved large amounts of domestic spending. It was difficult in early 2007 to foresee the reduction that nations were about the face in domestic revenue collected. Five years on, not only have the first line effects of the GFC reduced the revenue raised by governments around the world, but the consequential costs associated with the rescue packages have also depleted domestic revenue bases. The response by stakeholders has been to attempt to secure domestic revenue bases through fiscally sustainable measures. Domestic sovereignty allows the levying of taxes as a nation chooses. However, rather than raise domestic taxes, revenue may also be increased by stemming the flow of income and capital to low and no-tax jurisdictions. The intervening five-year period since the GFC allows a unique insight into the response by nations and international organisations to tax evasion, tax avoidance and aggressive tax competition through the cross border flows of capital and the resulting affect that the GFC has had on international tax cooperation. By investigating the change in the international tax landscape over the last five years, which reveals the work done by stakeholders in developing fiscally responsible responses to the problems that have arisen, it may be possible to predict the trajectory of the international tax landscape over the next five years.

Future public service capacity: employment of young people into Australian public services during the GFC

Public services face several workforce challenges, including impending retirements and austerity programs. Although employing more young people is a likely solution to balancing the demographic profile of public services, the literature and theory suggest that young people would have fared worse during the global financial crisis. This research tests propositions around the vulnerability of young people in selected Australian public services during the global financial crisis, in terms of quantity and quality of jobs obtained. Surprisingly, the findings suggest that many young people fared as well or sometimes better than other age cohorts during the global financial crisis in terms of both recruitment and access to ongoing jobs. There are several indications that perhaps public services provided a safe haven in a turbulent labour market.

Insuring for a crisis: deposit insurance and the GFC, the Australian and New Zealand experience

Deposit insurance schemes were an important element in policy responses to the global financial crisis (GFC). There has been considerable debate about the nature and efficacy of such policy measures in alleviating the fallout from financial crises. The GFC highlighted problems associated with deposit insurance schemes including moral hazard, coverage limits, co-insurance, cross border issues and market distortions. Despite these shortcomings, deposit insurance schemes were able to ameliorate the financial panic experienced and reduce contagion. This paper evaluates the Australian and New Zealand experience with deposit insurance introduced in response to the GFC, and compares this to the OECD experience. It reflects on the performance of deposit insurance schemes considered against the attributes of good policy design, and evaluates the specific problems and strengths encountered during the GFC.

Volatility Spillover and Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events

This paper applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets: the Diebold Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index and the Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to October 2016, for the S&P500 and the FTSE, plus ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock Exchange Index and the FTSE 100 index, from 3 January 2005 to 31 January 2015. Both data sets capture both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets, plus net spillovers. The key difference between the measures is that the spillover index captures an average of spillovers over a period, whilst volatility impulse responses (VIRF) have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time. The VIRF provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. In the latter analysis, we explore the impact of three different shocks, the onset of the GFC, which we date as 9 August 2007 (GFC1). It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head, but it did so on 15 September 2008, (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a multivariate GARCH model, which are then analysed using both BEKK and diagonal BEKK (DBEKK) models. A key result is that the impact of negative shocks is larger, in terms of the effects on variances and covariances, but shorter in duration, in this case a difference between three and six months.

Dislodgement of commercial property public debt markets : the case of U.S. and Australia

The paper investigates if there are any discernible trends in the U.S. and Australian commercial property public debt markets with the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Commercial mortgage-backed securities and unsecured bonds issued by real estate investment trusts for the period 2000 to Q3:2009 are reviewed. It is shown that events in the equity markets have an impact on the pricing of these two instruments. Furthermore, the impact of subdued activity in these financing instruments on the commercial property market is discussed.