Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Information support for health management in regional Sri Lanka : health managers’ perspectives

Good management, supported by accurate, timely and reliable health information, is vital for increasing the effectiveness of Health Information Systems (HIS). When it comes to managing the under resourced health systems of developing countries, information-based decision making is particularly important. This paper reports findings of a self-report survey that investigated perceptions of local health managers (HMs) of their own regional HIS in Sri Lanka. Data were collected through a validated, pre-tested postal questionnaire, and distributed among a selected group of HMs to elicit their perceptions of the current HIS in relation to information generation, acquisition and use, required reforms to the information system and application of information and communication technology (ICT). Results based on descriptive statistics indicated that the regional HIS was poorly organised and in need of reform; that management support for the system was unsatisfactory in terms of relevance, accuracy, timeliness and accessibility; that political pressure and community and donor requests took precedence over vital health information when management decisions were made; and use of ICT was unsatisfactory. HIS strengths included user-friendly paper formats, a centralised planning system and an efficient disease notification system; weaknesses were lack of comprehensiveness, inaccuracy, and lack of a feedback system. Responses of participants indicated that HIS would be improved by adopting an internationally accepted framework and introducing ICT applications. Perceived barriers to such improvements were high initial cost of educating staff to improve computer literacy, introduction of ICTs, and HIS restructure. We concluded that the regional HIS of Central Province, Sri Lanka had failed to provide much needed information support to HMs. These findings are consistent with similar research in other developing countries and reinforce the need for further research to verify causes of poor performance and to design strategic reforms to improve HIS in regional Sri Lanka.

Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

Detección, diagnóstico y registro oportuno de enfermedad profesional en UNIMEC EPS. S.A.

Los empleadores deben implantar programas de salud ocupacional y sistemas de vigilancia epidemiológica para que al momento de sospechar la ocurrencia de una enfermedad profesional la reporten a la entidad promotora de salud

Coeficientes de incidência do dengue e sua relação com os diferenciais intra-urbanos segundo condições de vida no município do Natal, Rio Grande do Norte

This study sprang from the hypothesis that spatial variations in the morbidity rate for dengue fever within the municipality of Natal are related to intra-city socioeconomic and environmental variations. The objective of the project was to classify the different suburbs of Natal according to their living conditions and establish if there was any correlation between this classification and the incidence rate for dengue fever, with the aim of enabling public health planners to better control this disease. Data on population density, access to safe drinking water, rubbish collection, sewage disposal facilities, income level, education and the incidence of dengue fever during the years 2001 and 2003 was drawn from the Brazilian Demographic Census 2000 and from the Reportable Disease Notification System -SINAN. The study is presented here in the form of two papers, corresponding to the types of analysis performed: a classification of the urban districts into quartiles according to the living conditions which exist there, in the first article; and the incidence of dengue fever in each of these quartiles, in the second. By applying factorial analysis to the chosen socioeconomic and environmental indicators for the year 2000, a compound index of living condition (ICV) was obtained. On the basis of this index, it was possible to classify the urban districts into quartiles. On undertaking this grouping (paper 1), a heterogeneous distribution of living conditions was found across the city. As to the incidence rate for dengue fever (paper 2), it was discovered that the quartile identified as having the best living conditions presented incidence rates of 15.62 and 15.24 per 1000 inhabitants respectively in the years 2001 and 2003; whereas the quartile representing worst living conditions showed incidence rates of 25.10 and 10.32 for the comparable periods. The results suggest that dengue fever occurs in all social classes, and that its incidence is not related in any evident way to the chosen formula for living conditions

Retrospective analysis of post-exposure to human anti-rabies treatment in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil

This analysis aimed to identify characteristics of accidents that would, probably, provoke rabies infection. A total of 14,409 survey questionnaires for surveillance of human rabies from the Brazilian Information System for Disease Notification (SINAN), from 2000 to 2005, were analyzed. Regarding demographics, it was observed that 7,377 (51.5%) of the victims were white, 4,458 (30.93%) were children and 8,008 (55.58%) were males. Urban cases were prevalent (88.10%) while dogs were the animals most frequently involved in accidents, in 11,700 cases (81.19%). Bites (84.35%) and scratches (19.15%) were the most prevalent exposure types, and occurred predominantly on victims' extremities (38.79%). The prophylactic measure taken in 6,179 cases comprised anti-rabies vaccine; of these victims, 421 (2.92%) showed systemic reactions while 693 (4.80%) reported no response. The importance of developing awareness in professionals that should correctly report post-exposure immunoprophylaxis cases is emphasized given the high number of individuals who receive this type of treatment annually.

Identifying and integrating patient and caregiver perspectives for clinical practice guidelines on the screening and management of infectious microorganisms in hemodialysis units

Introduction: The integration of patient and caregiver input into guideline development can help to ensure that clinical care addresses patient expectations, priorities, and needs. We aimed to identify topics and outcomes salient to patients and caregivers for inclusion in the Kidney Health Australia Caring for Australasians with Renal Impairment (KHA-CARI) clinical practice guideline on the screening and management of infectious microorganisms in hemodialysis units.

Methods: A facilitated workshop was conducted with 11 participants (patients [n = 8], caregivers [n = 3]). Participants identified and discussed potential topics for inclusion in the guidelines, which were compared to those developed by the guideline working group. The workshop transcript was thematically analyzed to identify and describe the reasons underpinning their priorities.

Findings: Patients and caregivers identified a range of topics already covered by the scope of the proposed guidelines and also suggested additional topics: privacy and confidentiality, psychosocial care during/after disease notification, quality of transportation, psychosocial treatment of patients in isolation, patient/caregiver education and engagement, and patient advocacy. Five themes characterized discussion and underpinned their choices: shock and vulnerability, burden of isolation, fear of infection, respect for privacy and confidentiality, and confusion over procedural inconsistencies.

Discussion: Patients and caregivers emphasized the need for guidelines to address patient education and engagement, and the psychosocial implications of communication and provision of care in the context of infectious microorganisms in hemodialysis units. Integrating patient and caregiver perspectives can help to improve the relevance of guidelines to enhance quality of care, patient experiences, and health and psychosocial outcomes.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Web based surveillance systems could improve disease detection and the response to emerging disease events

The Chinese government should be commended for its open, concerted, and rapid response to the recent H7N9 influenza outbreak. However, the first known case was not reported until 48 days after disease onset.1 Although the difficulties in detecting the virus and the lack of suitable diagnostic methods have been the focus of discussion,2 systematic limitations that may have contributed to this delay have hardly been discussed. The detection speed of surveillance systems is limited by the highly structured nature of information flow and hierarchical organisation of these systems. Flu surveillance usually relies on notification to a central authority of laboratory confirmed cases or presentations to sentinel practices for flu-like illness. Each step in this pathway presents a bottleneck at which information and time can be lost; this limitation must be dealt with...

Laboratory enhanced surveillance for meningococcal disease in Victoria

Objective: To describe the epidemiological and microbiological characteristics and notification patterns of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Victoria between 1990 and 1999.

Methods: Cases of IMD occurring between 1990 and 1995 identified in any of three databases were combined, matching where possible. Statistical modelling provided estimates of cases missing from all datasets. Notification sources for 1999 and 2000 cases were identified. Cases identified from notification and laboratory results provided the data to describe IMD epidemiology between 1990 and 1999.

Results: Between 1990 and 1995, 479 cases of IMD were identified. Three individual datasets each identified between 62 and 82% of cases and 47% of cases were identified in all three datasets. Statistical modelling estimated that between 37 and 83 additional cases were not identified by any dataset. Serogroup B and C strains caused 63 and 33% of culture-positive cases, respectively, with a substantial rise in serogroup C cases in 1999. Epidemiological characteristics remained relatively constant between 1990 and 1998, but an increase in patient age was seen in cases with serogroup C disease in 1999. In addition to three clonal strains seen elsewhere, an additional strain was identified that was unique to Victoria. Since January 1999, only 72% of notifications have come from treating doctors.

Conclusions: Meningococcal disease is of increasing public health significance in Victoria. Laboratory enhanced notification has improved case identification and detailed microbiological information has improved our understanding of the changing epidemiology of this disease. Collaboration with laboratories and other agencies, active investigation of putative cases and microbiological monitoring are important elements in supporting public health decisions about the control of IMD.

Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods

 Background: Efficient and reliable surveillance and notification systems are vital for monitoring public health and disease outbreaks. However, most surveillance and notification systems are affected by a degree of underestimation (UE) and therefore uncertainty surrounds the 'true' incidence of disease affecting morbidity and mortality rates. Surveillance systems fail to capture cases at two distinct levels of the surveillance pyramid: from the community since not all cases seek healthcare (under-ascertainment), and at the healthcare-level, representing a failure to adequately report symptomatic cases that have sought medical advice (underreporting). There are several methods to estimate the extent of under-ascertainment and underreporting. Methods. Within the context of the ECDC-funded Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project, an extensive literature review was conducted to identify studies that estimate ascertainment or reporting rates for salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis in European Union Member States (MS) plus European Free Trade Area (EFTA) countries Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and four other OECD countries (USA, Canada, Australia and Japan). Multiplication factors (MFs), a measure of the magnitude of underestimation, were taken directly from the literature or derived (where the proportion of underestimated, under-ascertained, or underreported cases was known) and compared for the two pathogens. Results: MFs varied between and within diseases and countries, representing a need to carefully select the most appropriate MFs and methods for calculating them. The most appropriate MFs are often disease-, country-, age-, and sex-specific. Conclusions: When routine data are used to make decisions on resource allocation or to estimate epidemiological parameters in populations, it becomes important to understand when, where and to what extent these data represent the true picture of disease, and in some instances (such as priority setting) it is necessary to adjust for underestimation. MFs can be used to adjust notification and surveillance data to provide more realistic estimates of incidence. © 2014 Gibbons et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.