Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

A large proportion of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities in the low transmission setting of Temotu Province, Solomon Islands : challenges for malaria diagnostics in an elimination setting

Background Many countries are scaling up malaria interventions towards elimination. This transition changes demands on malaria diagnostics from diagnosing ill patients to detecting parasites in all carriers including asymptomatic infections and infections with low parasite densities. Detection methods suitable to local malaria epidemiology must be selected prior to transitioning a malaria control programme to elimination. A baseline malaria survey conducted in Temotu Province, Solomon Islands in late 2008, as the first step in a provincial malaria elimination programme, provided malaria epidemiology data and an opportunity to assess how well different diagnostic methods performed in this setting. Methods During the survey, 9,491 blood samples were collected and examined by microscopy for Plasmodium species and density, with a subset also examined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). The performances of these diagnostic methods were compared. Results A total of 256 samples were positive by microscopy, giving a point prevalence of 2.7%. The species distribution was 17.5% Plasmodium falciparum and 82.4% Plasmodium vivax. In this low transmission setting, only 17.8% of the P. falciparum and 2.9% of P. vivax infected subjects were febrile (≥38°C) at the time of the survey. A significant proportion of infections detected by microscopy, 40% and 65.6% for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively, had parasite density below 100/μL. There was an age correlation for the proportion of parasite density below 100/μL for P. vivax infections, but not for P. falciparum infections. PCR detected substantially more infections than microscopy (point prevalence of 8.71%), indicating a large number of subjects had sub-microscopic parasitemia. The concordance between PCR and microscopy in detecting single species was greater for P. vivax (135/162) compared to P. falciparum (36/118). The malaria RDT detected the 12 microscopy and PCR positive P. falciparum, but failed to detect 12/13 microscopy and PCR positive P. vivax infections. Conclusion Asymptomatic malaria infections and infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities are highly prevalent in Temotu province where malaria transmission is low. This presents a challenge for elimination since the large proportion of the parasite reservoir will not be detected by standard active and passive case detection. Therefore effective mass screening and treatment campaigns will most likely need more sensitive assays such as a field deployable molecular based assay.

Nonlinear transport in semiconducting polymers at high carrier densities

Conducting and semiconducting polymers are important materials in the development of printed, flexible, large-area electronics such as flat-panel displays and photovoltaic cells. There has been rapid progress in developing conjugated polymers with high transport mobility required for high-performance field-effect transistors (FETs), beginning(1) with mobilities around 10(-4) cm(2) V-1 s(-1) to a recent report(2) of 1 cm(2) V-1 s(-1) for poly(2,5-bis(3-tetradecylthiophen-2-yl) thieno[3,2-b] thiophene) (PBTTT). Here, the electrical properties of PBTTT are studied at high charge densities both as the semiconductor layer in FETs and in electrochemically doped films to determine the transport mechanism. We show that data obtained using a wide range of parameters (temperature, gate-induced carrier density, source-drain voltage and doping level) scale onto the universal curve predicted for transport in the Luttinger liquid description of the one-dimensional `metal'.

Competition of sorghum cultivars and densities with Japanese millet (Echinochloa esculenta).

Field studies were conducted at two locations in southern Queensland, Australia during the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 growing seasons to determine the differential competitiveness of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) cultivars and crop densities against weeds and the sorghum yield loss due to weeds. Weed competition was investigated by growing sorghum in the presence or absence of a model grass weed, Japanese millet (Echinochloa esculenta). The correlation analyses showed that the early growth traits (height, shoot biomass, and daily growth rate of the shoot biomass) of sorghum adversely affected the height, biomass, and seed production of millet, as measured at maturity. "MR Goldrush" and "Bonus MR" were the most competitive cultivars, resulting in reduced weed biomass, weed density, and weed seed production. The density of sorghum also had a significant effect on the crop's ability to compete with millet. When compared to the density of 4.5 plants per m2, sorghum that was planted at 7.5 plants per m2 suppressed the density, biomass, and seed production of millet by 22%, 27% and 38%, respectively. Millet caused a significant yield loss in comparison with the weed-free plots. The combined weed-suppressive effects of the competitive cultivars, such as MR Goldrush, and high crop densities minimized the yield losses from the weeds. These results indicate that sorghum competition against grass weeds can be improved by choosing competitive cultivars and by using a high crop density of > 7.5 plants per m2. These non-chemical options should be included in an integrated weed management program for better weed management, particularly where the control options are limited by the evolution of herbicide resistance.

Nutrient levels in experimental tanks supplied with prawn pond effluent: the effect of artificial substrate and different densities of the banana prawn Penaeus merguiensis (de Man)

To experimentally investigate the effect of vertical artificial substrate and different densities of the banana prawn Penaeus (Fenneropenaeus) merguiensis on nutrient levels in prawn pond effluent, a time series experiment was conducted in a replicated tank system supplied periodically with discharge from a prawn production pond. Few differences (P>0.05) were detected between tanks without prawns, and tanks with low densities (5 prawns in 1700 litres) of prawns (10-12 g), in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus in the water column over the 28-day experimental period. Higher densities of prawns (starting at 25 or 50 per tank) caused an elevation of these macronutrients in the water column. This was partly due to prawn biomass losses from mortalities and weight reductions in the tank system. The survival and condition of prawns was significantly (P<0.05) reduced in tanks at these higher densities. The presence of artificial substrate (2 m2 tank-1) did not affect (P>0.05) the levels of nutrients in tank water columns, but significantly (P<0.05) increased the amount of nitrogen in tank residues left at the end of the trial when no prawns were present. The prawns had obviously been grazing on surfaces inside the tanks, and their swimming actions appeared to keep light particulate matter in suspension. Higher prawn densities increased microalgal blooms, which presumably kept ammonia levels low, and it is suggested that this association may provide the means for improved remediation of prawn farm effluent in the future.

The line transect method for estimating densities of large mammals in a tropical deciduous forest: An evaluation of models and field experiments

We have evaluated techniques of estimating animal density through direct counts using line transects during 1988-92 in the tropical deciduous forests of Mudumalai Sanctuary in southern India for four species of large herbivorous mammals, namely, chital (Axis axis), sambar (Cervus unicolor), Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and gaur (Bos gauras). Density estimates derived from the Fourier Series and the Half-Normal models consistently had the lowest coefficient of variation. These two models also generated similar mean density estimates. For the Fourier Series estimator, appropriate cut-off widths for analysing line transect data for the four species are suggested. Grouping data into various distance classes did not produce any appreciable differences in estimates of mean density or their variances, although model fit is generally better when data are placed in fewer groups. The sampling effort needed to achieve a desired precision (coefficient of variation) in the density estimate is derived. A sampling effort of 800 km of transects returned a 10% coefficient of variation on estimate for chital; for the other species a higher effort was needed to achieve this level of precision. There was no statistically significant relationship between detectability of a group and the size of the group for any species. Density estimates along roads were generally significantly different from those in the interior af the forest, indicating that road-side counts may not be appropriate for most species.

Anodic deposition of porous RuO2 on stainless steel for supercapacitor studies at high current densities

Ruthenium dioxide is deposited on stainless steel (SS) substrate by galvanostatic oxidation of Ru3+. At high current densities employed for this purpose, there is oxidation of water to oxygen, which occurs in parallel with Ru3+ oxidation. The oxygen evolution consumes a major portion of the charge. The oxygen evolution generates a high porosity to RuO2 films, which is evident from scanning electron microscopy studies. RuO2 is identified by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Cyclic voltammetry and galvanostatic charge–discharge cycling studies indicate that RuO2/SS electrodes possess good capacitance properties. Specific capacitance of 276 F g−1 is obtained at current densities as high as 20 mA cm−2 (13.33 A g−1). Porous nature of RuO2 facilitates passing of high currents during charge–discharge cycling. RuO2/SS electrodes are thus useful for high power supercapacitor applications.

Saturated liquid densities of cryogenic liquids and refrigerants

The saturated liquid density, varrholr, data along the liquid vapour coexistence curve published in the literature for several cryogenic liquids, hydrocarbons and halocarbon refrigerants are fitted to a generalized equation of the following form varrholr = 1 + A(1 − Tr + B(1 − Tr)β The values of β, the index in phase density differences power law, have been obtained by means of two approaches namely statistical treatment of saturated fluid phase density difference data and the existence of a maximum in T(varrho1 − varrhov) along the saturation curve. Values of the constants A and B are determined utilizing the fact that Tvarrho1 has a maximum at a characteristic temperature T. Values of A, B and β are tabulated for Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe, N2, O2, methane, ethane, propane, iso-butane, n-butane, propylene, ethylene, CO2, water, ammonia, refrigerants-11, 12, 12B1, 13, 13B1, 14, 21, 22, 23, 32, 40, 113, 114, 115, 142b, 152a, 216, 245 and azeotropes R-500, 502, 503, 504. The average error of prediction is less than 2%.

Supersolid Phase in One-Dimensional Bose-Hubbard Model With Extended Range Interactions: DMRG And Field Theoretic Study at Different Densities

We use the Density Matrix Renormalization Group and the Abelian bosonization method to study the effect of density on quantum phases of one-dimensional extended Bose-Hubbard model. We predict the existence of supersolid phase and also other quantum phases for this system. We have analyzed the role of extended range interaction parameters on solitonic phase near half-filling. We discuss the effects of dimerization in nearest neighbor hopping and interaction as well as next nearest neighbor interaction on the plateau phase at half-filling.

Role of free valences and spin densities on the migrating atom in location of saddle points in radical-exchange reactions

The principle of the conservation of bond orders during radical-exchange reactions is examined using Mayer's definition of bond orders. This simple intuitive approximation is not valid in a quantitative sense. Ab initio results reveal that free valences (or spin densities) develop on the migrating atom during reactions. For several examples of hydrogen-transfer reactions, the sum of the reaction coordinate bond orders in the transition state was found to be 0.92 +/- 0.04 instead of the theoretical 1.00 because free valences (or spin densities) develop on the migrating atom during reactions. It is shown that free valence is almost equal to the square of the spin density on the migrating hydrogen atom and the maxima in the free valence (or spin density) profiles coincide (or nearly coincide) with the saddle points in the corresponding energy profiles.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.