Genome-wide association study of prostate cancer-specific survival

BACKGROUND: Unnecessary intervention and overtreatment of indolent disease are common challenges in clinical management of prostate cancer. Improved tools to distinguish lethal from indolent disease are critical. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide survival analysis of cause-specific death in 24,023 prostate cancer patients (3,513 disease-specific deaths) from the PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. Top findings were assessed for replication in a Norwegian cohort (CONOR). RESULTS: We observed no significant association between genetic variants and prostate cancer survival. CONCLUSIONS: Common genetic variants with large impact on prostate cancer survival were not observed in this study. IMPACT: Future studies should be designed for identification of rare variants with large effect sizes or common variants with small effect sizes.

Smoking negatively impacts renal cell carcinoma overall and cancer-specific survival

Tobacco use is a leading cause of premature death, yet few studies have investigated the effect of tobacco exposure on the outcome of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). The authors of this report retrospectively studied the impact of smoking on clinicopathologic factors, survival outcomes, and p53 expression status in a large cohort of patients with RCC.

Cause-Specific Long-Term Mortality in Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Switzerland: A Population Based Study.

Survivors of childhood cancer have a higher mortality than the general population. We describe cause-specific long-term mortality in a population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. We included all children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland (1976-2007) at age 0-14 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis and followed survivors until December 31, 2012. We obtained causes of death (COD) from the Swiss mortality statistics and used data from the Swiss general population to calculate age-, calendar year- and sex-standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and absolute excess risks (AER) for different COD, by Poisson regression. We included 3'965 survivors and 49'704 person years at risk. Of these, 246 (6.2%) died, which was 11 times higher than expected (SMR 11.0). Mortality was particularly high for diseases of the respiratory (SMR 14.8) and circulatory system (SMR 12.7), and for second cancers (SMR 11.6). The pattern of cause-specific mortality differed by primary cancer diagnosis, and changed with time since diagnosis. In the first 10 years after 5-year survival, 78.9% of excess deaths were caused by recurrence of the original cancer (AER 46.1). Twenty-five years after diagnosis, only 36.5% (AER 9.1) were caused by recurrence, 21.3% by second cancers (AER 5.3) and 33.3% by circulatory diseases (AER 8.3). Our study confirms an elevated mortality in survivors of childhood cancer for at least 30 years after diagnosis with an increased proportion of deaths caused by late toxicities of the treatment. The results underline the importance of clinical follow-up continuing years after the end of treatment for childhood cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Ascertainment of cause-specific mortality in COPD - operations of the TORCH clinical endpoint Committee

Background: TORCH (Towards a Revolution in COPD Health) is an international multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial of inhaled fluticasone propionate/salmeterol combination treatment and its monotherapy components for maintenance treatment of moderately to severely impaired patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality and deaths related to COPD are additional outcome measures, but systematic methods for ascertainment of these outcomes have not previously been described. Methods: A Clinical Endpoint Committee (CEC) was tasked with categorising the cause of death and the relationship of deaths to COPD in a systematic, unbiased and independent manner. The key elements of the operation of the committee were the use of predefined principles of operation and definitions of cause of death and COPD-relatedness; the independent review of cases by all members with development of a consensus opinion; and a substantial infrastructure to collect medical information. Results: 911 deaths were reviewed and consensus was reached in all. Cause-specific mortality was: cardiovascular 27%, respiratory 35%, cancer 21%, other 10% and unknown 8%. 40% of deaths were definitely or probably related to COPD. Adjudications were identical in 83% of blindly re-adjudicated cases ( = 0.80). COPD-relatedness was reproduced 84% of the time ( = 0.73). The CEC adjudication was equivalent to the primary cause of death recorded by the site investigator in 52% of cases. Conclusion: A CEC can provide standardised, reliable and informative adjudication of COPD mortality that provides information which frequently differs from data collected from assessment by site investigators.

Engagement in cultural activities and cause-specific mortality: Prospective cohort study

Objective. To determine the relation between engagement in cultural activities and main causes of mortality among full-time employees.

Cause-specific mortality adjudication in the UPLIFT® COPD trial:findings and recommendations

Mortality is an important endpoint in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trials, although accurately determining cause of death is difficult. In the Understanding the Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT®) trial, a mortality adjudication committee (MAC) provided systematic, independent and blinded assessment of cause-specific mortality of all 981 reported deaths. Here we describe this process of mortality adjudication and methodological revisions introduced to help standardise the adjudication of two areas recognised to pose particular difficulty; firstly, the classification of fatal COPD exacerbations that occur in the setting of pneumonia and secondly, the categorisation of sudden death. In addition MAC determined cause of death was compared with that reported by site investigators (SIs). MAC-assigned causes of death were: respiratory, 35%; cancer, 25%; cardiovascular, 11%; sudden cardiac death, 4.4%; sudden death, 3.4%; other, 8.8%; unknown, 12.4%. Cancer/cardiac deaths were more common in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage II, respiratory deaths in stages III and IV. Agreement between MAC and SI regarding cause of death was complete (50.2%), incomplete (18.5%) or none (31.3%). The SI classified deaths as cardiac three-fold more frequently than MAC (incidence rate [IR]/100 patient-years 0.797 vs. 0.257), although IR ratios for cardiac deaths for tiotropium vs. control were similar between SI and MAC. Discrepancies between MAC- and SI-adjudicated causes of death are common, especially increased reporting of cardiac deaths by the SI. Future multicentre COPD trials should plan appropriate infrastructure before study initiation to ensure collection and interpretation of fatal events data.

Post-diagnostic prescriptions for low-dose aspirin and breast cancer-specific survival: a nested case-control study in a breast cancer cohort from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

INTRODUCTION: Recent observational studies indicate that post-diagnostic use of aspirin in breast cancer patients may protect against cancer progression perhaps by inhibiting cyclooxygenase-2 dependent mechanisms. Evidence also supports a crucial role for interactions between tumour cells and circulating platelets in cancer growth and dissemination, therefore, use of low-dose aspirin may reduce the risk of death from cancer in breast cancer patients.

METHODS: A cohort of newly diagnosed breast cancer patients (1998 to 2006) were identified in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (and confirmed by cancer registry linkage). Cancer-specific deaths were identified up to 2011 from Office for National Statistics mortality data. A nested case-control analysis was conducted using conditional logistic regression to compare post-diagnostic aspirin exposure using General Practice prescription data in 1,435 cases (breast cancer deaths) with 5,697 controls (matched by age and year of diagnosis).

RESULTS: After breast cancer diagnosis, 18.3% of cancer-specific deaths and 18.5% of matched controls received at least one prescription for low-dose aspirin, corresponding to an odds ratio (OR) of 0.98 (95% CI 0.83, 1.15). Adjustment for potential confounders (including stage and grade) had little impact on this estimate. No dose response relationship was observed when the number of tablets was investigated and no associations were seen when analyses were stratified by receipt of prescriptions for aspirin in the pre-diagnostic period, by stage at diagnosis or by receipt of prescriptions for hormone therapy.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, in this large population-based cohort of breast cancer patients, there was little evidence of an association between receipt of post-diagnostic prescriptions for low-dose aspirin and breast cancer-specific death. However, information was not available on medication compliance or over-the-counter use of aspirin, which may have contributed to the null findings.

Age-specific survival of male Golden-cheeked Warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

Biomarkers of extracellular matrix metabolism (MMP-9 and TIMP-1) and risk of stroke, myocardial infarction and cause-specific mortality : cohort study

Objective: Turnover of the extracellular matrix in all solid organs is governed mainly by a balance between the degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs). An altered extracellular matrix metabolism has been implicated in a variety of diseases. We investigated relations of serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 to mortality risk from an etiological perspective. Design: The prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) cohort, followed from 1991–1995 for up to 18.1 years. A random population-based sample of 1,082 71-year-old men, no loss to follow-up. Endpoints were all-cause (n = 628), cardiovascular (n = 230), non-cardiovascular (n = 398) and cancer mortality (n = 178), and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 138) or stroke (n = 163). Results: Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.19; and 1.11, 1.02–1.20; respectively). TIMP-1 levels were mainly related to risks of cardiovascular mortality and stroke (HR per standard deviation 1.22, 95% CI 1.09–1.37; and 1.18, 1.04–1.35; respectively). All relations except those of TIMP-1 to stroke risk were attenuated by adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Relations in a subsample without cardiovascular disease or cancer were similar to those in the total sample. Conclusion: In this community-based cohort of elderly men, serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were related to mortality risk. An altered extracellular matrix metabolism may be involved in several detrimental pathways, and circulating MMP-9 or TIMP-1 levels may be relevant markers thereof.

The number of years lived with obesity and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality

Background The role of the duration of obesity as an independent risk factor for mortality has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between the duration of obesity and the risk of mortality.

Methods A total of 5036 participants (aged 28–62 years) of the Framingham Cohort Study were followed up every 2 years from 1948 for up to 48 years. The association between obesity duration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was analysed using time-dependent Cox models adjusted for body mass index. The role of biological intermediates and chronic diseases was also explored.

Results The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality increased as the number of years lived with obesity increased. For those who were obese for 1–4.9, 5–14.9, 15–24.9 and ≥25 years of the study follow-up period, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27–1.79], 1.94 (95% CI 1.71–2.20), 2.25 (95% CI 1.89–2.67) and 2.52 (95% CI 2.08–3.06), respectively, compared with those who were never obese. A dose–response relation between years of duration of obesity was also clear for all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other-cause mortality. For every additional 2 years of obesity, the HRs for all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer and other-cause mortality were 1.06 (95% CI 1.05–1.07), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05–1.08), 1.03 (95% CI 1.01–1.05) and 1.07 (95% CI 1.05–1.11), respectively.

Conclusions The number of years lived with obesity is directly associated with the risk of mortality. This needs to be taken into account when estimating its burden on mortality.