Regulation of estrogen receptor alpha by the tumor suppressor p53 in breast cancer cells

Estrogen receptor (ER) and the tumor suppressor p53 are key prognostic indicators in breast cancer. Estrogen signaling through its receptor (ER) controls proliferation of normal as well as transformed mammary epithelial cells, and the presence of ER is established as a marker of good prognosis and response to therapy. The p53 tumor suppressor gene is often referred to as the "cellular gatekeeper" due to its extensive control of cell proliferation and apoptosis. Loss of functional p53 is a negative prognostic indicator and is correlated with lack of response to antiestrogens, reduced disease-free interval and increased chance of disease recurrence. Clinical studies have demonstrated that tumors with mutated p53 tend to be ER negative, while ER positive tumors tend to have wild type p53. ^ Recent studies from our lab indicate that p53 genotype correlates with estrogen receptor expression in mammary tumors in vivo. We therefore hypothesized that p53 regulates ER expression in mammary cancer cells by recruitment of specific cofactors to the ER promoter. To test this, MCF-7 cells were treated with doxorubicin or ionizing radiation, both of which stimulated significant increases in p53 expression, as expected, but also increased ER expression in a p53-dependent manner. Furthermore, in cells treated with siRNA targeting p53, both p53 and ER protein levels were significantly reduced. P53 was also demonstrated to transcriptionally regulate the ER promoter in luciferase assays and chromatin immunoprecipitation assays showed that p53 was recruited to the ER promoter along with CARM1, CBP, c-Jun and Sp1 and that this multifactor complex was formed in a p53-dependent manner. The regulation of ER by p53 has therapeutic implications, as the treatment of breast cancer cells with doxorubicin sensitized these cells to tamoxifen treatment. Furthermore, response to tamoxifen as well as to estrogen was dependent on p53 expression in ER positive human breast cancer cells. Taken together, these data demonstrate that p53 regulates ER expression through transcriptional control of the ER promoter, accounting for their concordant expression in human breast cancer and identifying potentially beneficial therapeutic strategies for the treatment of ER positive breast cancers. ^

Early stage breast cancer and comorbidities: Their impact on breast cancer disease-free survival differences by ethnicity

The retrospective cohort study examined the association between the presence of comorbidities and breast cancer disease-free survival rates among racial/ethnic groups. The study population consisted of 2389 women with stage I and II invasive breast cancer who were diagnosed and treated at the M.D. Anderson Cancer Center between 1985 and 2000. It has been suggested that as the number of comorbidities increases, breast cancer mortality increases. It is known that African Americans and Hispanics are considered to be at a higher risk for comorbid conditions such as hypertension and diabetes compared to Caucasian women (23) (10). When compared to Caucasian women, African American women also have a higher breast cancer mortality rate (1). As a result, the study also examined whether comorbid conditions contribute to racial differences in breast cancer disease-free survival. Among the study population, 24% suffered from breast cancer recurrence, 6% died from breast cancer and 24% died from all causes. The mean age was 56 with 41% of the population being women between the ages of 40-55. One or more comorbidities were reported in 84 (36%) African Americans (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.19-2.10), 58 (31%) Hispanics (OR 1.25; 95% CI 0.90-1.74) compared to the reference group of 531 (27%) Caucasians. Additionally, African American women were significantly more likely to suffer from either a breast cancer recurrence or breast cancer death (OR 1.5; 95% CI 0.70-1.41) when compared to Caucasian women. Multivariate analysis found hypertension (HR 1.22; 95% CI 0.99-1.49; p<0.05) to be statistically significant and a potential prognostic tool for disease-free survival with African American women (OR 2.96; 95% 2.25-3.90) more likely to suffer from hypertension when compared to Caucasian women. When compared to Caucasian women, Hispanics were also more likely to suffer from hypertension (OR 1.33; 95% CI 0.96-1.83). This suggests that comorbid conditions like hypertension could account for the racial disparities that exist when comparing breast cancer survival rates. Future studies should investigate this relationship further.^

Outcomes associated with chemotherapy in elderly patients with early stage operable breast cancer

Background. Various clinical trials have proved the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy in women with breast cancer. Chemotherapy efficacy and guidelines for its use differ by stage of tumor and age of the patient with no clear recommendations for patients aged 70 and above. Objective. To examine the clinical and economic outcomes associated with chemotherapy use in and to examine the disparities in treatment and survival in elderly patients with early stage operable breast cancer by age and axillary node status. Methods. We studied a cohort of 23,110 node positive and 31,572 node negative women aged 65 and over diagnosed with incident American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I, II or IIIa breast cancer between January 1, 1991 and December 31, 2002 using SEER-Medicare data. Total patient costs were estimated using the phase of care approach and adjusted cost estimates were obtained from regression analysis using a 3% discount rate. Cox proportional hazard ratio of mortality was used to determine the effectiveness of chemotherapy. Propensity score approach was also used to minimize the bias associated with receipt of chemotherapy. To assess disparity in treatment, multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relative odds of receiving surgery, chemotherapy and radiation after BCS for African Americans compared to Whites. Results. Regression adjusted cost estimates for all node positive patients receiving chemotherapy was approximately $2,300 and was significantly higher (p<0.05) than for patients not receiving chemotherapy. Mortality was significantly lower in node positive and node negative women aged 65-74 years receiving chemotherapy. There was a significant difference between African American and White women in receiving BCS and radiation after BCS; however this difference was explained by patient demographics, tumor characteristics and socioeconomic status (SES). African American node positive women were 21% less likely to receive chemotherapy than White women (OR, 0.79; CI, 0.68-0.92) in multivariate analysis. Conclusion. Chemotherapy is associated with increased survival in patients aged 65-74 and total costs attributable to chemotherapy differ by phase and age of the patient. Underutilization of systemic adjuvant chemotherapy in African American women requires attention and may serve as potential areas for appropriate intervention.^

COX-2 expression in operable triple negative breast cancer: A hospital based cross-sectional study

Objectives. Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) lack expression of estrogen receptors (ER), progesterone receptors (PR), and absence of Her2 gene amplification. Current literature has identified TNBC and over-expression of cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX-2) protein in primary breast cancer to be independent markers of poor prognosis in terms of overall and distant disease free survival. The purpose of this study was to compare COX-2 over-expression in TNBC patients to those patients who expressed one or more of the three tumor markers (i.e. ER, and/or PR, and/or Her2).^ Methods. Using a secondary data analysis, a cross-sectional design was implemented to examine the association of interest. Data collected from two ongoing protocols titled "LAB04-0657: a model for COX-2 mediated bone metastasis (Specific aim 3)" and "LAB04-0698: correlation of circulating tumor cells and COX-2 expression in primary breast cancer metastasis" was used for analysis. A sample of 125 female patients was analyzed using Chi-square tests and logistic regression models. ^ Results. COX-2 over-expression was present in 33% (41/125) and 28% (35/124) patients were identified as having TNBC. TNBC status was associated with elevated COX-2 expression (OR= 3.34; 95% CI= 1.40–8.22) and high tumor grade (OR= 4.09; 95% CI= 1.58–10.82). In a multivariable analysis, TNBC status was an important predictor of COX-2 expression after adjusting for age, menopausal status, BMI, and lymph node status (OR= 3.31; 95% CI: 1.26–8.67; p=0.01).^ Conclusion. TNBC is associated with COX-2 expression—a known marker of poor prognosis in patients with operable breast cancer. Replication of these results in a study with a larger sample size, or a future randomized clinical trial demonstrating an improved prognosis with COX-2 suppression in these patients would support this hypothesis.^

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer metastases

Introduction. Breast cancer is a highly variable disease, and long-term outcomes for individual patients are difficult to predict. We evaluated a retrospective cohort of early stage breast cancer (ESBC) patients based on a variety of clinical and epidemiological factors, specifically looking at the distribution of metastasis and associations with these clinical and epidemiological factors. ^ Methods. Patients were derived from the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository (ESBCR) with a breast cancer diagnosed between 1985 and 2000. We conducted univariate and multivariate analysis of the data to evaluate associations between characteristics and occurrence of overall, visceral, and bone metastasis. Visceral metastasis was defined as lung, liver, peritoneal, lymph node (thoracic, abdominal, pelvis), and contralateral breast cancer. ^ Results. Overall, 394 (16%) patients developed a metastasis. Of these, 83% were visceral and 17% were bone. Multivariate analyses identified the following variables to be associated with metastasis: Any metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, ER/PR status, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (1)Visceral metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (2) Bone metastasis –Alcohol use, stage, and ER/PR status ^ Discussion/conclusion. ER-/PR- status has previously been found to be associated with bone metastasis, as we confirm in our cohort. We report an association between alcohol use and bone metastasis whereas previous studies find an association with recurrence. Distribution of metastases varies from previous studies. Typically, previous studies reported bone metastasis >30%, yet our study found 17%. Previous studies varied in design, and definition of visceral metastasis. Future research is needed to further elucidate prognostic factors associated with specific metastases A more thorough understanding of what might predict which ESBC patients will develop metastases can help direct future treatment. Future studies of this nature could include the Perou intrinsic subtypes, biomarkers like Ki-67, and genetic analyses such as Oncotype DX or MammaPrint.^

The effect of yoga on cardiovascular health as measured by heart rate variability in a sample of breast cancer patients

The study is a three-armed randomized controlled trial comparing values for heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of cardiovascular health, throughout a yoga intervention of breast cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy. Patients attended either a yoga (n=45), stretch, (n=46), or control (n=42) condition 3 times per week for 6 weeks of radiation. Electrocardiograms (ECGs) were conducted on each participant to provide the values necessary for HRV analysis. Analyses focused on examining scores for those participants with HRV baseline values considered to be below the cutoff point for healthy HRV levels, defined by the authors as below the cutpoint of 68 ms. From the entire sample of 133 with available baselines, 26 yogis, 26 stretchers, and 23 controls were determined to be “pathologic” in terms of HRV, and selected for follow-up analysis at 3 weeks and then again at 6 weeks. Though no statistically significant differences were found between either group means at each timepoint or group change score means, the yoga group had consistently higher mean score and mean change scores. These findings are suggestive and indicate the need to refine the use of ECGs and HRV analysis programs to more accurately and comprehensively assess the effects of yoga on cardiovascular health in cancer patients.^

Factors governing late-recurrence of disease in a cohort of early-stage breast cancer survivors

Purpose. To determine the risk of late breast cancer recurrence (5 years after treatment) in a population of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) between 1985-2000 and to examine the effect of this population’s BMI, smoking history, reproductive history, hormone use, and alcohol intake at the time of diagnosis on risk of late recurrence.^ Methods. Patients included 1,913 members of the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository recruited at MDACC who had survived without a recurrence for at least five years after their initial diagnosis of early stage breast cancer. Clinical and epidemiological information was ascertained twice on participants during the study—first by medical record abstraction then by patient interview at least five years after receipt of adjuvant treatment. A total of 223 late breast cancer recurrences were captured, with an average follow-up of 10.6 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ^

Concordance between medical records and personal interview in ascertaining breast cancer and diabetes status: Analysis of the south Texas women's health project

Accurate ascertainment of risk factors and disease status is vital in public health research for proper classification of research subjects. The two most common ways of obtaining this data is by self-report and review of medical records (MRs). South Texas Women’s Health Project was a case-control study looking at interrelationships between hormones, diet, and body size and breast cancer among Hispanic women 30-79 years of age. History of breast cancer, diabetes mellitus (DM) and use of DM medications was ascertained from a personal interview. At the time of interview, the subject identified her major health care providers and signed the medical records release form, which was sent to the designated providers. The MRs were reviewed to confirm information obtained from the interview.^ Aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity between MRs and personal interview in diagnosis of breast cancer, DM and DM treatment. We also wanted to assess how successful our low-cost approach was in obtaining pertinent MRs and what factors influenced the quality of MR or interview data. Study sample was 721 women with both self-report and MR data available by June 2007. Overall response rate for MR requests was 74.5%. MRs were 80.9% sensitive and 100% specific in confirming breast cancer status. Prevalence of DM was 22.7% from the interviews and 16% from MRs. MRs did not provide definite information about DM status of 53.6% subjects. Sensitivity and specificity of MRs for DM status was 88.9% and 90.4% respectively. Disagreement on DM status from the two sources was seen in 15.9% subjects. This discordance was more common among older subjects, those who were married and were predominantly Spanish speaking. Income and level of education did not have a statistically significantly association with this disagreement.^ Both self-report and MRs underestimate the prevalence of DM. Relying solely on MRs leads to greater misclassification than relying on self-report data. MRs have good to excellent specificity and thus serve as a good tool to confirm information obtained from self-report. Self-report and MRs should be used in a complementary manner for accurate assessment of DM and breast cancer status.^

Lifetime changes in body mass index and risk of breast cancer in minority women

Introduction: Obesity is an epidemic in the United States, especially among Hispanics and African-Americans. Studies of obesity and breast cancer risk and subtype have been conducted primarily in non-Hispanic whites. Obesity is inversely associated with premenopausal breast cancer, but both obesity and weight gain increase the risk of postmenopausal disease. Obesity has been associated with breast cancer subtype in many studies. Methods: To assess the association between changes in body mass index (BMI) over the lifetime, weight gain, and breast cancer in Mexican-American women, we conducted a case-control study using 149 cases and 330 age-matched controls. In a second study, we identified 212 African-American and 167 Mexican-American women with breast cancer in the ongoing ELLA Bi-National Breast Cancer Study, abstracted medical charts to classify tumors as ER+/PR+, HER2+, or ER-/PR-/HER2-, and assessed the association between lifetime changes in body mass index, weight gain, and breast cancer subtype. In both studies, growth mixture modeling was use to identify trajectories of change in BMI over the lifetime, and these trajectories were used as exposures in a logistic regression model to calculate odds ratios (OR). Results: There was no association between trajectories of change in BMI and breast cancer risk in Mexican-American women. In addition, BMI at ages 15 and 30 and at diagnosis was not associated with breast cancer. However, adult weight gain was inversely associated with breast cancer risk (per 5kg, OR=0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-0.99). The case-only analysis found no association between obesity at ages 15 and 30 and at diagnosis and breast cancer subtype. Further, there was no association between adult weight gain (defined as weight change from age 15 to time of diagnosis) and breast cancer subtype. Conclusions: Obesity was not associated with breast cancer risk in Mexican-American women, while adult weight gain reduced the risk independently of menopausal status. These results are contradictory of those in non-Hispanic white women and suggest that the etiology of breast cancer may differ by race/ethnicity. Further, obesity was not associated with breast cancer subtype in African-American and Mexican-American women, contrary to results in non-Hispanic white women. ^

For health's sake: Cervical and breast cancer screening

African-Americans make up twelve percent of the United States population, yet they experience morbidity and mortality at a rate that, in some cases, is disproportionate to their numbers. There are numerous health areas, including cancer, in which disparities exist. There are also numerous reasons which have been suggested to explain the high rates of cancer morbidity and mortality experienced by African-Americans. Among the reasons given to explain these differences are lack of knowledge and lack of access to medical care (1). This study sought to increase the knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions of African-American women attending a Baptist church in Houston with regard to cervical cancer, breast cancer, Pap smear, and mammography. It was hypothesized that a church-based cancer education program would produce the desired change in knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions.^ The quasi-experimental design of the study was untreated control group with pretest and posttest and untreated control group with posttest only. Female members of Mount Ararat Baptist Church took part in an eight-week, cancer education program based on social cognitive theory. Baseline data were collected before the start of the program at Mount Ararat and at Solid Rock Baptist Church, control group one. At the end of the program, the follow-up survey was administered at the program church, control church one, and in a third church, Damascus Missionary Baptist Church, which served as the posttest only group. The data were analyzed by Fisher's exact and paired t-test to determine if the program supported the project's hypotheses.^ Results of data analyses supported the major study hypotheses, the exception being behavioral intention to have Pap smear performed. Although the program appeared to have generally influenced changes in the desired direction, the results are limited due to the quasi-experimental design and small sample size. Longer term studies with larger sample sizes are needed to more fully develop and evaluate programs which impact the health of African-Americans. ^

Incidence of breast cancer in first-degree female relatives of men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer

Prostate cancer is the most common incident cancer and the second leading cause of death in men in the United States. Although numerous attempts have been made to identify risk factors associated with prostate cancer, the results have been inconsistent and conflicting. The only established risk factors are age and ethnicity. A positive family history of prostate cancer has also been shown to increase the risk two- to three-fold among close relatives.^ There are several similarities between breast and prostate cancer that make the relationship between the two of interest. (1) Histologically, both cancers are predominantly adenocarcinomas, (2) both organs have a sexual and/or reproductive role, (3) both cancers occur in hormone-responsive tissue, (4) therapy often consists of hormonal manipulation, (5) worldwide distribution patterns of prostate and breast cancer are positively correlated.^ A family history study was conducted to evaluate the aggregation of prostate cancer and co-aggregation of breast cancer in 149 patients referred to The University of Texas, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center with newly diagnosed prostate cancer. All patients were white, less than 75 years of age at diagnosis and permanent residents of the United States. Through a personal interview with the proband, family histories were collected on 1,128 first-degree relatives. Cancer diagnoses were verified through medical records or death certificate. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated using a computer program by Monson incorporating data from Connecticut Tumor Registry.^ In this study, familial aggregation of prostate cancer was verified only among the brothers, not among fathers. Although a statistically significant excess of breast cancer was not found, the increased point estimates in mothers, sisters and daughters are consistent with a co-aggregation hypothesis. Rather surprising was the finding of a seven-fold increased risk of prostate cancer and a three-fold increased risk of breast cancer among siblings in the presence of a maternal history of any cancer. Larger family history studies including high risk (African-Americans) and lower-risk groups (Hispanics) and incorporating molecular genetic evaluations should be conducted to determine if genetic differences play a role in the differential incidence rates across ethnic groups. ^

Evaluating alternative therapies. Support/imagery and immune function in breast cancer: A pilot study

Cancer patients increasingly request alternative therapies such as imagery techniques and support groups. Although research suggests evidence of enhanced psychosocial functioning with supportive group therapy and enhanced immune function with imagery techniques, studies are anecdotal or limited to case studies or descriptive reports. The efficacy of these alternative therapies should be validated by randomized, controlled trials and the mechanisms of action mediating immune function and outcome examined.^ In a 12-month pilot study, we evaluate the feasibility of conducting a controlled study with clinical trial methodology to test the effects of imagery/relaxation and support on quality of life, emotional well-being, and immune function for women after breast cancer. Using a randomized pre-post test design with three intervention waves, we assigned women (n = 47) to either standard care (n = 15), standard care plus 6-weekly support sessions (n = 16) or imagery/relaxation sessions (n = 16).^ The primary aim of this pilot study is to determine the feasibility of conducting a clinical trial of alternative therapies in a clinical care setting. Secondary aims are to determine parameter estimates for the effects of the two treatment groups on quality of life, coping, social support, and immune function and describe methodology issues related to trials of alternative therapies.^ The research provides direction for future studies of alternative therapies by describing the recruitment, clinical trial experience, and related methodology issues. The study extends previous work by differentiating the effects of support group from mental imagery among outpatient groups who are homogeneous regarding cancer type and treatment stage. The study provides data for future longitudinal studies of disease progression by differentiating the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance quality of life, coping, social support, and immune function and subsequently, alter the clinical course of disease. ^

DIETARY RELATIONSHIPS TO FATAL BREAST CANCER AMONG SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTISTS

Laboratory experiments in animals, correlational and migrant studies in humans suggest a role for diet in the etiology of breast cancer. Data gathered from individuals via case-control studies are less consistent. Seventh-day Adventist women experience lower mortality from breast cancer than comparable U.S. populations and this decrease is thought to be, at least in part, related to dietary practices (half are vegetarian). In 1960, 25,000 California Seventh-day Adventists completed a questionnaire which included a 21 item food frequency section. Cancer mortality in this population was monitored between 1960 and 1980 and the relationship of high fat food intake and fatal breast cancer was evaluated. Although established risk factors for breast cancer were observed in this population (e.g. age at menarche, age at first pregnancy, age at menopause and obesity) consumption of high fat foods were not observed to exert a strong influence on fatal breast cancer risk. Odds ratios (O.R.) for fatal breast cancer among non-vegetarians was 1.2. Increasing meat consumption bore little relation to risk; O.R. = 1.0, 1.2, 1.1 for consumption categories of none/occasional, 1-3 days/week and 4+ days/week respectively. Nor did the consumption of other high fat foods of animal origin (e.g. butter, cheese, milk, eggs) show any relationship to risk. These results remained unchanged after simultaneously controlling for the effect of other, potentially confounding variables (menstrual characteristics, obesity) via logistic regression analysis. ^

Anesthetic choices and breast cancer recurrence: A retrospective cohort study of risk factors

Background: The impact of anesthetic techniques for breast cancer surgery traditionally has been centered on the incidence of acute pain syndromes and complications immediately after surgery. Evaluating anesthesia management beyond short-term effects is an emerging science. Several animal studies have concluded that regional anesthesia independently reduces cancer recurrence and metastasis. A small number of retrospective clinical studies indicate that reductions in cancer recurrence are attributable to anesthesia technique; however, individual risk factors need to be taken into consideration. ^ Purpose: The aims were to: 1) investigate differences in patient, disease and treatment factors between women who received surgical treatment for breast cancer with paravertebral regional and general anesthesia compared to women who received general anesthesia alone; 2) explore patient, disease and treatment factors associated with recurrence of breast cancer; and 3) test the association between type of anesthesia and breast cancer recurrence and survival over 22–46 months following surgery. ^ Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 358 patients with stage 0-III disease who received a partial or total mastectomy without axillary node dissection between October 2006 and October 2008 at a large academic cancer center. Follow-up ended in August 2010 with a median follow-up time of 28.8 months. ^ Results: The patient demographics were equally represented across anesthesia groups. Mean BMI (kg/m2) was greater for the patients who received general anesthesia (GA) alone (29±6.8) compared to those that received paravertebral regional block (PVB) with GA (28±5.1), p=0.001. The PVB with GA group had more advanced stages of disease (p=0.01) and longer surgeries (p=0.01) than the GA only group. Breast cancer recurrence was detected in only 1.7% of the study population. The mean age was 51±18 in those who had a recurrence compared to 58±11 in the non-recurrent group (p=0.06). Overall, no association between anesthesia type and recurrence was found (p=0.53), with an unadjusted estimated hazard ratio of 1.84 (95% CI 0.34–10.08). ^ Conclusions: In contrast to previous retrospective studies in cancer patients receiving surgical and anesthesia treatment, this study was unable to detect a difference in relating type of anesthesia with decreased breast cancer recurrence. Nonetheless, a significant association between BMI and type of anesthesia was observed and should be taken into account in future studies. Because the overall rate of recurrence was very small in this population, a larger study would be needed to detect any differences in rates of recurrence attributable to type of anesthesia. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^