Quantifying spatial structure in experimental observations and agent-based simulations using pair-correlation functions

We define a pair-correlation function that can be used to characterize spatiotemporal patterning in experimental images and snapshots from discrete simulations. Unlike previous pair-correlation functions, the pair-correlation functions developed here depend on the location and size of objects. The pair-correlation function can be used to indicate complete spatial randomness, aggregation or segregation over a range of length scales, and quantifies spatial structures such as the shape, size and distribution of clusters. Comparing pair-correlation data for various experimental and simulation images illustrates their potential use as a summary statistic for calibrating discrete models of various physical processes.

Social engineering in social networking sites : affect-based model

While social engineering represents a real and ominous threat to many organizations, companies, governments, and individuals, social networking sites (SNSs), have been identified as among the most common means of social engineering attacks. Owing to factors that reduce the ability of users to detect social engineering tricks and increase the ability of attackers to launch them, SNSs seem to be perfect breeding ground for exploiting the vulnerabilities of people, and the weakest link in security. This work will contribute to the knowledge of social engineering by identifying different entities and subentities that affect social engineering based attacks in SNSs. Moreover, this paper includes an intensive and comprehensive overview of different aspects of social engineering threats in SNSs.

Aspect-based model of user experience

Traditional HCI design and evaluation methods merely focus on functional and usability aspects of a product. Although these aspects are important, they do not guarantee product’s success, especially the consumer product. Many consumer products are now part of user’s everyday activities – that support fun, pleasure, entertainment, etc. Secondly, in today’s consumer market many of the products have become similar in terms of their technology, functionality, price and quality. In response, many companies have started designing products with added emotional and experiential values. This has challenged designer’s to explore and visualize directions in product design field that could evoke intended and desired experiences amongst its users. Subjective product qualities such as fun, pleasure, entertainment, etc. are not the part of a product, but they are better thought of as the outcome of user’s interaction with the product...

A particle based model to simulate microscale morphological changes of plant tissues during drying

Fundamental understanding on microscopic physical changes of plant materials is vital to optimize product quality and processing techniques, particularly in food engineering. Although grid-based numerical modelling can assist in this regard, it becomes quite challenging to overcome the inherited complexities of these biological materials especially when such materials undergo critical processing conditions such as drying, where the cellular structure undergoes extreme deformations. In this context, a meshfree particle based model was developed which is fundamentally capable of handling extreme deformations of plant tissues during drying. The model is built by coupling a particle based meshfree technique: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). Plant cells were initiated as hexagons and aggregated to form a tissue which also accounts for the characteristics of the middle lamella. In each cell, SPH was used to model cell protoplasm and DEM was used to model the cell wall. Drying was incorporated by varying the moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model can be used to simulate tissues under excessive moisture content reductions incorporating cell wall wrinkling. Also, compared to the state of the art SPH-DEM tissue models, the proposed model better replicates real tissues and the cell-cell interactions used ensure efficient computations. Model predictions showed good agreement both qualitatively and quantitatively with experimental findings on dried plant tissues. The proposed modelling approach is fundamentally flexible to study different cellular structures for their microscale morphological changes at dehydration.

A meshfree particle based model for microscale shrinkage mechanisms of food materials in drying conditions

Cells are the fundamental building block of plant based food materials and many of the food processing born structural changes can fundamentally be derived as a function of the deformations of the cellular structure. In food dehydration the bulk level changes in porosity, density and shrinkage can be better explained using cellular level deformations initiated by the moisture removal from the cellular fluid. A novel approach is used in this research to model the cell fluid with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and cell walls with Discrete Element Methods (DEM), that are fundamentally known to be robust in treating complex fluid and solid mechanics. High Performance Computing (HPC) is used for the computations due to its computing advantages. Comparing with the deficiencies of the state of the art drying models, the current model is found to be robust in replicating drying mechanics of plant based food materials in microscale.

A gray-box neural network-based model identification and fault estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamic systems

A novel gray-box neural network model (GBNNM), including multi-layer perception (MLP) neural network (NN) and integrators, is proposed for a model identification and fault estimation (MIFE) scheme. With the GBNNM, both the nonlinearity and dynamics of a class of nonlinear dynamic systems can be approximated. Unlike previous NN-based model identification methods, the GBNNM directly inherits system dynamics and separately models system nonlinearities. This model corresponds well with the object system and is easy to build. The GBNNM is embedded online as a normal model reference to obtain the quantitative residual between the object system output and the GBNNM output. This residual can accurately indicate the fault offset value, so it is suitable for differing fault severities. To further estimate the fault parameters (FPs), an improved extended state observer (ESO) using the same NNs (IESONN) from the GBNNM is proposed to avoid requiring the knowledge of ESO nonlinearity. Then, the proposed MIFE scheme is applied for reaction wheels (RW) in a satellite attitude control system (SACS). The scheme using the GBNNM is compared with other NNs in the same fault scenario, and several partial loss of effect (LOE) faults with different severities are considered to validate the effectiveness of the FP estimation and its superiority.

Agent-based modelling of aircraft boarding methods

We implemented six different boarding strategies (Wilma, Steffen, Reverse Pyramid, Random, Blocks and By letter) in order to investigate boarding times for Boeing 777 and Airbus 380 aircraft. We also introduce three new boarding methods to find the optimum boarding strategy. Our models explicitly simulate the behaviour of groups of people travelling together and we explicitly simulate the timing to store their luggage as part of the boarding process. Results from the simulation demonstrates the Reverse Pyramid method is the best boarding method for Boeing 777, and the Steffen method is the best boarding method for Airbus 380. For the new suggested boarding methods, aisle first boarding method is the best boarding strategy for Boeing 777 and row arrangement method is the best boarding strategy for Airbus 380. Overall best boarding strategy is aisle first boarding method for Boeing 777 and Steffen method for Airbus 380.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Agent-based modelling of viral infection

The three phases of the macroscopic evolution of the HIV infection are well known, but it is still difficult to understand how the cellular-level interactions come together to create this characteristic pattern and, in particular, why there are such differences in individual responses. An 'agent-based' approach is chosen as a means of inferring high-level behaviour from a small set of interaction rules at the cellular level. Here the emphasis is on cell mobility and viral mutations.

Agent-based simulation as a component of mixed methods in entrepreneurship research

As a new research method supplementing the existing qualitative and quantitative approaches, agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) may fit well within the entrepreneurship field because the core concepts and basic premises of entrepreneurship coincide with the characteristics of ABMS (McKelvey, 2004; Yang & Chandra, 2013). Agent-based simulation is a simulation method based on agent-based models. The agentbased models are composed of heterogeneous agents and their behavioural rules. By repeatedly carrying out agent-based simulations on a computer, the simulations reproduce each agent’s behaviour, their interactive process, and the emerging macroscopic phenomenon according to the flow of time. Using agent-based simulations, researchers may investigate temporal or dynamic effects of each agent’s behaviours.

Information accountability and health big data analytics: A consent-based model

With the ever increasing amount of eHealth data available from various eHealth systems and sources, Health Big Data Analytics promises enticing benefits such as enabling the discovery of new treatment options and improved decision making. However, concerns over the privacy of information have hindered the aggregation of this information. To address these concerns, we propose the use of Information Accountability protocols to provide patients with the ability to decide how and when their data can be shared and aggregated for use in big data research. In this paper, we discuss the issues surrounding Health Big Data Analytics and propose a consent-based model to address privacy concerns to aid in achieving the promised benefits of Big Data in eHealth.

Using a process-based model, ParopSys, to predict the impact of climate change on the eucalypt plantation pest Paropsis atomaria.

The eucalypt leaf beetle, Paropsis atomaria Olivier, is an increasingly important pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical eastern Australia. A process-based model, ParopSys, was developed using DYMEXTM and was found to accurately predict the beetle populations. Climate change scenarios within the latest Australian climate model forecast range were run in ParopSys at three locations to predict changes in beetle performance. Relative population peaks of early generations did not change but shifted to earlier in the season. Temperature increases of 1.0 to 1.5 ºC or greater predicted an extra generation of adults at Gympie and Canberra, but not for Lowmead, where increased populations of late season adults were observed under all scenarios. Furthermore, an additional generation of late-larval stages was predicted at temperature increases of greater than 1.0 ºC at Lowmead. Management strategies to address these changes are discussed, as are requirements to improve the predictive capacity of the model.

Constructing a new individual-based model of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica): do we need to include two loci rather than one?

In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.