Evaluating Prediction Rules for t-Year Survivors With Censored Regression Models

Suppose that we are interested in establishing simple, but reliable rules for predicting future t-year survivors via censored regression models. In this article, we present inference procedures for evaluating such binary classification rules based on various prediction precision measures quantified by the overall misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Specifically, under various working models we derive consistent estimators for the above measures via substitution and cross validation estimation procedures. Furthermore, we provide large sample approximations to the distributions of these nonsmooth estimators without assuming that the working model is correctly specified. Confidence intervals, for example, for the difference of the precision measures between two competing rules can then be constructed. All the proposals are illustrated with two real examples and their finite sample properties are evaluated via a simulation study.

Semiparametric Estimation of Models for Natural Direct and Indirect Effects

In recent years, researchers in the health and social sciences have become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of an exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Natural direct and indirect effects are of particular interest as they generally combine to produce the total effect of the exposure and therefore provide insight on the mechanism by which it operates to produce the outcome. A semiparametric theory has recently been proposed to make inferences about marginal mean natural direct and indirect effects in observational studies (Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser, 2011), which delivers multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal direct and indirect effects, and thus generalizes previous results for total effects to the mediation setting. In this paper we extend the new theory to handle a setting in which a parametric model for the natural direct (indirect) effect within levels of pre-exposure variables is specified and the model for the observed data likelihood is otherwise unrestricted. We show that estimation is generally not feasible in this model because of the curse of dimensionality associated with the required estimation of auxiliary conditional densities or expectations, given high-dimensional covariates. We thus consider multiply robust estimation and propose a more general model which assumes a subset but not all of several working models holds.

Too many cooks? Co-creating and co-teaching studio courses in the creative media context : a career-focussed approach

This Case Study relates to the creation and implementation of career‐focussed courses in Creative Media for film, television, animation, broadcast and web contexts. The paper examines the advantages and disadvantages of co‐teaching, and how different professional and academic backgrounds and disciplines can productively inform curriculum design and delivery in the academic/professional context. The authors, as co‐creators and co‐lecturers, have developed a number of courses which represent current working models for intermediate to advanced level academic/professional study, and attract students from across the creative disciplines; including theatre, media, visual arts and music. These courses are structured to develop in students a wide range of aesthetic and technical skills, as well as their ability to apply those skills professionally within and across the creative media industries. Issues regarding the balance between academic rigour, practical hands‐on skill development, assessment, logistics, resources, teamwork and other issues, are examined in the paper.

Pd-Catalyzed Cross-Coupling Reactions of Hydrazones: Regioselective Synthesis of Highly Branched Dienes

The regioselective formation of highly branched dienes is a challenging task. Design and exploration of alternative working models to achieve such a regioselectivity to accomplish highly branched dienes is considered to be a historical advancement of Heck reaction to construct branched dienes. On the basis of the utility of carbene transfer reactions, in the reaction of hydrazones with Pd(II) under oxidative conditions, we envisioned obtaining a Pd-bis-carbene complex with alpha-hydrogens, which can lead to branched dienes. Herein, we report a novel Pd-catalyzed selective coupling reaction of hydrazones in the presence of t-BuOLi and benzoquinone to form the corresponding branched dienes. The utility of the Pd catalyst for the cross-coupling reactions for synthesizing branched conjugated dienes is rare. The reaction is very versatile and compatible with a variety of functional groups and is useful in synthesizing heterocyclic molecules. We anticipate that this Pd-catalyzed cross-coupling reaction will open new avenues for synthesizing useful compounds.

Evaluating marker-guided treatment selection strategies

© 2014, The International Biometric Society.A potential venue to improve healthcare efficiency is to effectively tailor individualized treatment strategies by incorporating patient level predictor information such as environmental exposure, biological, and genetic marker measurements. Many useful statistical methods for deriving individualized treatment rules (ITR) have become available in recent years. Prior to adopting any ITR in clinical practice, it is crucial to evaluate its value in improving patient outcomes. Existing methods for quantifying such values mainly consider either a single marker or semi-parametric methods that are subject to bias under model misspecification. In this article, we consider a general setting with multiple markers and propose a two-step robust method to derive ITRs and evaluate their values. We also propose procedures for comparing different ITRs, which can be used to quantify the incremental value of new markers in improving treatment selection. While working models are used in step I to approximate optimal ITRs, we add a layer of calibration to guard against model misspecification and further assess the value of the ITR non-parametrically, which ensures the validity of the inference. To account for the sampling variability of the estimated rules and their corresponding values, we propose a resampling procedure to provide valid confidence intervals for the value functions as well as for the incremental value of new markers for treatment selection. Our proposals are examined through extensive simulation studies and illustrated with the data from a clinical trial that studies the effects of two drug combinations on HIV-1 infected patients.

Attachment Style in Adults who Failed to Thrive as Children: Outcomes of a 20 Year Follow-up Study of Factors Influencing Maintenance or Change in Attachment Style

A group of children identified as non-organic failure-to-thrive between 1977 and 1980 were investigated, assessed and provided with social work intervention and treatment. Those children and their families have been followed up for the last 20 years. The current paper examines the stability of an internal working model in a sample of individuals who had failed to thrive as children, by comparing each individual's adult attachment style with their childhood attachment to their mother. In this sample, several cases showed changes from insecure to secure attachment styles. Possible reasons are discussed for positive and negative changes, as well as cases when there was no change in attachment style. These include the effectiveness of intervention in addition to changes in life circumstances. The findings suggest that when appropriate support and intervention is provided, or when different circumstances or relationships are experienced, internal working models can change.

Necessidades em cuidados paliativos do doente pós-AVC

Relatório de Prática Clínica apresentado à Escola Superior de Saúde Dr. Lopes Dias do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Cuidados Paliativos, realizada sob a orientação científica do Professora Doutora Ana Paula Gonçalves Antunes Sapeta, do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco.

QuickTime multi-track theatricks

Digital media, corporate database applications and intranets provide efficient ways to create, store and deliver information and educational services. However some academics perceive new workload and other constraints eroding the potency of these technologies. Proposed corporate level information management systems for digital objects and their metadata are new complexities entering academicsÕ thoughts about using online multimedia.

Few staff understand digital multimedia concepts and fewer still, the systems designed to deal with IP management, copyright law compliance and the tracking of digital resource creation processes. Faltering staff enthusiasm warns of their need to experience working models and tangible benefits from these new directions. A project in Deakin's Faculty of Education provides a case study showing how QuickTime is helping academics understand, and increase their use of, multimedia in e-learning environments with an integrated library of digital resources with metadata.

We also report our experience of QuickTime in creating interactive learning objects using multi-tracks. We discuss our idea of theatricks as a performance drawcard - people will come! There is orchestration of multimedia and QuickTime conducts the events, its flexible functionalities providing a safer development environment for solving problems and grasping opportunities.

While difficult for some academics to comprehend, scripting automation and database connectivity through intelligent interfaces might facilitate QuickTime's use in building integrated learning environments with academics. These ideas are considered in relation to staff development, central to the case study project.

Macroscale chromatography in the classroom

This paper describes how a simple macroscopic working model can be constructed to demonstrate the operation of chromatography in the classroom. Since the resources for construction may vary from school to school, the effect of varying 'molecular size'and packing parameter on the operation of the'chromatography column'have been investigated to provide guidance for teachers in the selection of materials to construct your own macroscopic chromatography column. Macroscopic working models help students make the link between the macroscopic observables e.g. retention time) and the conceptual explanations of the phenomenon at the microscopic level, thus helping to overcome most of the confusion and misconceptions associated with chromatography.The column is effective because it can engage kineastic, visual and auditory learning modes.The working model presented here separates components on the basis of size; other models, which separate by shape, mass, type of material, etc, are also mentioned.

Underlying neurobiology and clinical correlates of mania status after subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation in Parkinson's Disease : a review of the literature

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is a novel and effective surgical intervention for refractory Parkinson's disease (PD). The authors review the current literature to identify the clinical correlates associated with subthalamic nucleus (STN) DBS-induced hypomania/mania in PD patients. Ventromedial electrode placement has been most consistently implicated in the induction of STN DBS-induced mania. There is some evidence of symptom amelioration when electrode placement is switched to a more dorsolateral contact. Additional clinical correlates may include unipolar stimulation, higher voltage (>3 V), male sex, and/or early-onset PD. STN DBS-induced psychiatric adverse events emphasize the need for comprehensive psychiatric presurgical evaluation and follow-up in PD patients. Animal studies and prospective clinical research, combined with advanced neuroimaging techniques, are needed to identify clinical correlates and underlying neurobiological mechanisms of STN DBS-induced mania. Such working models would serve to further our understanding of the neurobiological underpinnings of mania and contribute valuable new insight toward development of future DBS mood-stabilization therapies.

Efeitos da flexibilização das relações de trabalho na qualidade de vida no trabalho : o caso da região metropolitana de Curitiba

A acirrada competição econômica e a profunda revolução tecnológica impõem às organizações contemporâneas mudanças significativas na organização da produção. Nesse contexto configuram-se algumas contradições. Por um lado exalta-se a importância da participação do trabalhador como fator decisivo na construção de vantagens competitivas, uma vez que o sucesso da organização tem como um dos principais requisitos a implantação de modelos de funcionamento que contemplem atividades geradoras de conhecimento novo, disseminem-no amplamente a toda organização e, rapidamente, incorporem-no a novas tecnologias e produtos. Por outro lado, também na busca de maiores graus de competitividade, práticas de flexibilização das relações de trabalho vêm sendo adotadas como forma de diminuição dos custos de produção, através da redução das formas de proteção da relação de trabalho. No Brasil, a ação flexibilizante já vem ocorrendo desde 1965 e encontra-se hoje em tramitação no Congresso Nacional o Projeto de Lei 5483/2001 que, alterando o art. 618 da Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho, pretende a prevalência do negociado sobre o legislado. Neste sentido, o objetivo da pesquisa é verificar os efeitos da flexibilização das relações de trabalho na qualidade de vida no trabalho, no que se refere, especificamente, à gestão do conhecimento e às necessidades sociais do trabalhador quanto aos seus benefícios diretos e espontâneos. Configura-se como um estudo de campo com foco nas organizações, a partir dos representantes da área de gestão de pessoas e nos trabalhadores das indústrias, com mais de quinhentos funcionários, instaladas na Região Metropolitana de Curitiba. O método utilizado para tratamento dos dados possibilita mensuração de variáveis qualitativas e o estabelecimento da comparabilidade entre os trabalhadores sujeitos às práticas de flexibilização e os demais trabalhadores. Os dados coletados por meio de questionários revelaram que a flexibilização das relações de trabalho faz parte integrante do novo perfil das organizações e que há hoje uma tendência de implemento com a abertura legal. Os efeitos causados por essa ação sobre a qualidade de vida no trabalho revelam-se predatórios, na medida em que os trabalhadores com contratos de trabalho flexibilizados encontram-se em posição de desvantagem no acesso à aprendizagem dentro das organizações e, também, na satisfação de suas necessidades sociais. Na análise comparativa entre as duas categorias de trabalhadores, foi possível verificar diferenças significativas no que diz respeito aos indicadores de participação no processo produtivo através da freqüência média de soluções apresentadas e incorporadas, da participação nos processos de aquisição do conhecimento, no acesso a benefícios diretos e espontâneos e na satisfação com o ambiente de trabalho. Essas constatações permitem concluir que as organizações, quando na busca de maior competitividade, incorrem em equívocos à medida em que desconsideram a qualidade de vida no trabalho, especificamente no que diz respeito à gestão do conhecimento e à satisfação das necessidades sociais como fatores maximizantes do desenvolvimento econômico e de incremento da produção.

I want to be my own person: the meaning-making and psychosocial processes of legacy students at Bucknell University

This study examined the meaning-making and psychosocial processes of five female legacy students at Bucknell University, each of whom having had at least one parent graduate from the institution. With a research philosophy, design, and methodology rooted in qualitative inquiry and phenomenology, inductive data analysis led to three primary categories that underscored legacy identity development. The first, Paradox of Influence and Identity, revealed through six themes nuanced experiences of separation-individuation. Second, Teaching and Learning, comprised of five themes, illuminated the impact of family — and of Bucknell parent alumni in particular — on their children’s internal working models. Lastly, Bucknell — the Environmental Contextand the five themes grouped therein highlighted the contributions of University community members, and of the campus culture and climate itself, to the co-construction of psychosocial formation. A tentative outline of grounded theory was offered, which explored categorical relationships; Paradox of Influence and Identity emerged as thedominant phenomenon, informing and being reinforced by the data of Teaching and Learning and Bucknell — the Environmental Context. Provisional intervention strategies for student affairs practice, in the contexts of academics, residential life, and career development, were discussed. Further, triangulated research is needed to substantiate and evolve the findings and theoretical model of this thesis.

On Causal Mediation Analysis with a Survival Outcome

Suppose that having established a marginal total effect of a point exposure on a time-to-event outcome, an investigator wishes to decompose this effect into its direct and indirect pathways, also know as natural direct and indirect effects, mediated by a variable known to occur after the exposure and prior to the outcome. This paper proposes a theory of estimation of natural direct and indirect effects in two important semiparametric models for a failure time outcome. The underlying survival model for the marginal total effect and thus for the direct and indirect effects, can either be a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model, or a marginal structural additive hazards model. The proposed theory delivers new estimators for mediation analysis in each of these models, with appealing robustness properties. Specifically, in order to guarantee ignorability with respect to the exposure and mediator variables, the approach, which is multiply robust, allows the investigator to use several flexible working models to adjust for confounding by a large number of pre-exposure variables. Multiple robustness is appealing because it only requires a subset of working models to be correct for consistency; furthermore, the analyst need not know which subset of working models is in fact correct to report valid inferences. Finally, a novel semiparametric sensitivity analysis technique is developed for each of these models, to assess the impact on inference, of a violation of the assumption of ignorability of the mediator.

ModelDB in Computational Neuroscience Education - A research tool as interactive educational media

ModelDB's mission is to link computational models and publications, supporting the field of computational neuroscience (CNS) by making model source code readily available. It is continually expanding, and currently contains source code for more than 300 models that cover more than 41 topics. Investigators, educators, and students can use it to obtain working models that reproduce published results and can be modified to test for new domains of applicability. Users can browse ModelDB to survey the field of computational neuroscience, or pursue more focused explorations of specific topics. Here we describe tutorials and initial experiences with ModelDB as an interactive educational tool.