Lectures and conferences on mathematical statistics and probability.

Original mimeographed ed. published in 1938 under title: Lectures and conferences on mathematical statistics.

Accounting for Fetal Death: Vital Statistics and the Medicalization of Pregnancy in the United States

Recent reports by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have decried the high rate of fetal mortality in the contemporary United States. Much of the data about fetal and infant deaths, as well as other poor pregnancy outcomes, are tabulated and tracked through vital statistics. In this article, I demonstrate how notions of fetal death became increasingly tied to the surveillance of maternal bodies through the tabulating and tracking of vital statistics in the middle part of the twentieth century. Using a historical analysis of the revisions to the United States Standard Certificate of Live Birth, and the United States Standard Report of Fetal Death, I examine how the categories of analysis utilized in these documents becomes integrally linked to contemporary ideas about fetal and perinatal death, gestational age, and prematurity. While it is evident that there are relationships between maternal behavior and birth outcomes, in this article I interrogate the ways in which the surveillance of maternal bodies through vital statistics has naturalized these relationships. Copyright 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lecture notes on probability, statistics, and experimental errors; an elementary summary for students of experimental science.

Mode of access: Internet.

Relevant Aspects on Teaching Probability and Statistics in Basic General Education

Probability and Statistics were included in the Basic General Education curricula by the Ministry of Public Education (Costa Rica), since 1995. To analyze the teaching reality in these fields, a research was conducted in two educational regions of the country: Heredia and Pérez Zeledón. The survey included university training and updating processes of teachers teaching Statistics and Probability in the schools. The research demonstrated the limited university training in these fields, the dissatisfaction of teachers about it, and the poor support of training institutions to their professional exercise.

Electron transfer statistics and thermal fluctuations in molecular junctions

We derive analytical expressions for probability distribution function (PDF) for electron transport in a simple model of quantum junction in presence of thermal fluctuations. Our approach is based on the large deviation theory combined with the generating function method. For large number of electrons transferred, the PDF is found to decay exponentially in the tails with different rates due to applied bias. This asymmetry in the PDF is related to the fluctuation theorem. Statistics of fluctuations are analyzed in terms of the Fano factor. Thermal fluctuations play a quantitative role in determining the statistics of electron transfer; they tend to suppress the average current while enhancing the fluctuations in particle transfer. This gives rise to both bunching and antibunching phenomena as determined by the Fano factor. The thermal fluctuations and shot noise compete with each other and determine the net (effective) statistics of particle transfer. Exact analytical expression is obtained for delay time distribution. The optimal values of the delay time between successive electron transfers can be lowered below the corresponding shot noise values by tuning the thermal effects. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

The role of previous experience and attitudes toward statistics in statistics assessment outcomes among undergraduate psychology students

Previous research has demonstrated that students’ cognitions about statistics are related to their performance in statistics assessments. The purpose of this research is to examine the nature of the relationships between undergraduate psychology students’ previous experiences of maths, statistics and computing; their attitudes toward statistics; and assessment on a statistics course. Of the variables examined, the strongest predictor of assessment outcome was students’ attitude about their intellectual knowledge and skills in relation to statistics at the end of the statistics curriculum. This attitude was related to students’ perceptions of their maths ability at the beginning of the statistics curriculum. Interventions could be designed to change such attitudes with the aim of improving students’ learning of statistics.

Laplace transforms of probability distributions and their inversions are easy on logarithmic scales

It is shown that, when expressing arguments in terms of their logarithms, the Laplace transform of a function is related to the antiderivative of this function by a simple convolution. This allows efficient numerical computations of moment generating functions of positive random variables and their inversion. The application of the method is straightforward, apart from the necessity to implement it using high-precision arithmetics. In numerical examples the approach is demonstrated to be particularly useful for distributions with heavy tails, Such as lognormal, Weibull, or Pareto distributions, which are otherwise difficult to handle. The computational efficiency compared to other methods is demonstrated for an M/G/1 queueing problem.

Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts.

Calculation of non-Gaussian statistics and bit error rate degradation due to pulse-to-pulse interaction

We develop a theoretical method to calculate jitter statistics of interacting solitons. Applying this approach, we have derived the non-Gaussian probability density function and calculated the bit-error rate as a function of noise level, initial separation and phase difference between solitons.

Krylov subspace methods for approximating functions of symmetric positive definite matrices with applications to applied statistics and anomalous diffusion

Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

Cell image classification using histograms, higher order statistics and adaboost

A cell classification algorithm that uses first, second and third order statistics of pixel intensity distributions over pre-defined regions is implemented and evaluated. A cell image is segmented into 6 regions extending from a boundary layer to an inner circle. First, second and third order statistical features are extracted from histograms of pixel intensities in these regions. Third order statistical features used are one-dimensional bispectral invariants. 108 features were considered as candidates for Adaboost based fusion. The best 10 stage fused classifier was selected for each class and a decision tree constructed for the 6-class problem. The classifier is robust, accurate and fast by design.

Suicide, statistics and the coroner: A comparative study of death investigations

Australia has a significantly higher suicide rate than England. Rather than accepting that this ‘statistical fact’ is a direct reflection of some positivist truth, this paper begins with the premise that how suicide is counted depends upon what counts as suicide. This study involves semi-structured interviews with coroners both in Australia and England, as well as observations at inquests. Important differences between the two coronial systems include: first, quite different logics of operation; second, the burden of proof for reaching a finding of suicide is significantly higher in England; and third, the presence of family members at English inquests results in far greater pressure being brought to bear upon coroners. These combined factors result in a reduced likelihood of English coroners reaching a finding of suicide. The conclusions are twofold. First, this research supports existing criticisms of comparative suicide statistics. Second, this research adds theoretical weight to criticisms of positivist analyses of social phenomena.

Optimal simultaneous maximum a posterioriestimation of states, noise statistics and parameters I. Algorithm

The simultaneous state and parameter estimation problem for a linear discrete-time system with unknown noise statistics is treated as a large-scale optimization problem. The a posterioriprobability density function is maximized directly with respect to the states and parameters subject to the constraint of the system dynamics. The resulting optimization problem is too large for any of the standard non-linear programming techniques and hence an hierarchical optimization approach is proposed. It turns out that the states can be computed at the first levelfor given noise and system parameters. These, in turn, are to be modified at the second level.The states are to be computed from a large system of linear equations and two solution methods are considered for solving these equations, limiting the horizon to a suitable length. The resulting algorithm is a filter-smoother, suitable for off-line as well as on-line state estimation for given noise and system parameters. The second level problem is split up into two, one for modifying the noise statistics and the other for modifying the system parameters. An adaptive relaxation technique is proposed for modifying the noise statistics and a modified Gauss-Newton technique is used to adjust the system parameters.