Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity.

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture–recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture–recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture–recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture–recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao’s lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates—in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture-recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture-recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture-recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture-recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao's lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates-in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

Application of one-list capture-recapture models to scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain

In this paper, we apply one-list capture-recapture models to estimate the number of scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain. We applied this technique to the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme dataset where cases from all the surveillance sources monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain, the abattoir survey, the fallen stock survey and the statutory reporting of clinical cases, are gathered. Consequently, the estimates of prevalence obtained from this scheme should be comprehensive and cover all the different presentations of the disease captured individually by the surveillance sources. Two estimators were applied under the one-list approach: the Zelterman estimator and Chao's lower bound estimator. Our results could only inform with confidence the scrapie-affected holding population with clinical disease; this moved around the figure of 350 holdings in Great Britain for the period under study, April 2005-April 2006. Our models allowed the stratification by surveillance source and the input of covariate information, holding size and country of origin. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the active surveillance of scrapie in the European Union

The abattoir and the fallen stock surveys constitute the active surveillance component aimed at improving the detection of scrapie across the European Union. Previous studies have suggested the occurrence of significant differences in the operation of the surveys across the EU. In the present study we assessed the standardisation of the surveys throughout time across the EU and identified clusters of countries with similar underlying characteristics allowing comparisons between them. In the absence of sufficient covariate information to explain the observed variability across countries, we modelled the unobserved heterogeneity by means of non-parametric distributions on the risk ratios of the fallen stock over the abattoir survey. More specifically, we used the profile likelihood method on 2003, 2004 and 2005 active surveillance data for 18 European countries on classical scrapie, and on 2004 and 2005 data for atypical scrapie separately. We extended our analyses to include the limited covariate information available, more specifically, the proportion of the adult sheep population sampled by the fallen stock survey every year. Our results show that the between-country heterogeneity dropped in 2004 and 2005 relative to that of 2003 for classical scrapie. As a consequence, the number of clusters in the last two years was also reduced indicating the gradual standardisation of the surveillance efforts across the EU. The crude analyses of the atypical data grouped all the countries in one cluster and showed non-significant gain in the detection of this type of scrapie by any of the two sources. The proportion of the population sampled by the fallen stock appeared significantly associated with our risk ratio for both types of scrapie, although in opposite directions: negative for classical and positive for atypical. The initial justification for the fallen stock, targeting a high-risk population to increase the likelihood of case finding, appears compromised for both types of scrapie in some countries.

Sistema nervoso enterico e scrapie sperimentale in ovini di razza sarda con diversa suscettibilità genetica nei confronti della malattia

Sebbene il sistema nervoso enterico (“enteric nervous system”, ENS) svolga un ruolo cruciale nella patogenesi della Scrapie ovina, non esistono tuttavia in letteratura dati sulle popolazioni cellulari progressivamente coinvolte nel corso dell’infezione, né sugli eventuali danni morfo-funzionali da esse subiti. Il presente studio è stato condotto sui plessi mienterici e sottomucosi dell’ileo di 46 pecore di razza Sarda, recanti diversi polimorfismi del gene Prnp (ARQ/ARQ, ARQ/AHQ, ARQ/ARR, ARR/ARR). I suddetti animali, infettati per os all’età di 8 mesi con un ceppo di Scrapie precedentemente caratterizzato nel topo, sono stati sacrificati mediante eutanasia a determinati intervalli di tempo post-infezione (p.i.). E’ stata quindi valutata, tramite immunoistochimica ed immunofluorescenza indiretta su sezioni tissutali e su preparati “wholemount”, l’immunoreattività (IR) nei confronti della PrPSc, del “marker” panneuronale Hu C/D, dell’ossido-nitrico sintetasi (nNOS), della calbindina (CALB) e della proteina fibrillare acida gliale (GFAP). In 8 pecore con genotipo ARQ/ARQ, clinicamente sane e sacrificate a 12-24 mesi p.i., nonché in 5 ovini clinicamente affetti (2 con genotipo ARQ/ARQ, 3 con genotipo ARQ/AHQ), questi ultimi sacrificati rispettivamente a 24, 36 e 40 mesi p.i., le indagini immunoistochimiche hanno consentito di dimostrare la presenza di PrPSc a livello sia dell’encefalo (obex), sia dell’ENS, in particolar modo nei plessi mienterici. In tali distretti il deposito della PrPSc risultava pienamente compatibile con un interessamento delle cellule enterogliali (“enteroglial cells”, EGCs), mentre occasionalmente si notava un contestuale coinvolgimento della componente neuronale ivi residente. In conclusione, i dati della presente indagine consentono di ipotizzare un verosimile coinvolgimento delle EGCs e dei neuroni residenti a livello dei plessi dell’ENS nella patogenesi della Scrapie sperimentale realizzata per os in ovini di razza Sarda.

Distinct proteinase K-resistant prion protein fragment in goats with no signs of disease in a classical scrapie outbreak

Considerable efforts have been directed toward the identification of small-ruminant prion diseases, i.e., classical and atypical scrapie as well as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Here we report the in-depth molecular analysis of the proteinase K-resistant prion protein core fragment (PrP(res)) in a highly scrapie-affected goat flock in Greece. The PrP(res) profile by Western immunoblotting in most animals was that of classical scrapie in sheep. However, in a series of clinically healthy goats we identified a unique C- and N-terminally truncated PrP(res) fragment, which is akin but not identical to that observed for atypical scrapie. These findings reveal novel aspects of the nature and diversity of the molecular PrP(res) phenotypes in goats and suggest that these animals display a previously unrecognized prion protein disorder.

Atypical scrapie isolates involve a uniform prion species with a complex molecular signature

The pathobiology of atypical scrapie, a prion disease affecting sheep and goats, is still poorly understood. In a previous study, we demonstrated that atypical scrapie affecting small ruminants in Switzerland differs in the neuroanatomical distribution of the pathological prion protein (PrP(d)). To investigate whether these differences depend on host-related vs. pathogen-related factors, we transmitted atypical scrapie to transgenic mice over-expressing the ovine prion protein (tg338). The clinical, neuropathological, and molecular phenotype of tg338 mice is similar between mice carrying the Swiss atypical scrapie isolates and the Nor98, an atypical scrapie isolate from Norway. Together with published data, our results suggest that atypical scrapie is caused by a uniform type of prion, and that the observed phenotypic differences in small ruminants are likely host-dependant. Strikingly, by using a refined SDS-PAGE technique, we established that the prominent proteinase K-resistant prion protein fragment in atypical scrapie consists of two separate, unglycosylated peptides with molecular masses of roughly 5 and 8 kDa. These findings show similarities to those for other prion diseases in animals and humans, and lay the groundwork for future comparative research.

Comparison of brain PrPd distribution in ovine BSE and scrapie

Scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) are both prion diseases affecting ruminants, and these diseases do not share the same public health concerns. Surveillance of the BSE agent in small ruminants has been a great challenge, and the recent identification of diverse prion diseases in ruminants has led to the development of new methods for strain typing. In our study, using immunohistochemistry (IHC), we assessed the distribution of PrP(d) in the brains of 2 experimentally BSE-infected sheep with the ARQ/ARQ genotype. Distribution of PrP(d) in the brain, from the spinal cord to the frontal cortex, was remarkably similar in the 2 sheep despite different inoculation routes and incubation periods. Comparatively, overall PrP(d) brain distribution, evaluated by IHC, in 19 scrapie cases with the ARQ/ARQ, ARQ/VRQ, and VRQ/VRQ genotypes, in some cases showed similarities to the experimentally BSE-infected sheep. There was no exclusive neuroanatomical site with a characteristic and specific PrP(d) type of accumulation induced by the BSE agent. However, a detailed analysis of the topography, types, and intensity of PrP(d) deposits in the frontal cortex, striatum, piriform cortex, hippocampus, mesencephalon, and cerebellum allowed the BSE-affected sheep group to be distinguished from the 19 scrapie cases analyzed in our study. These results strengthen and emphasize the potential interest of PrP(d) brain mapping to help in identifying prion strains in small ruminants.

Caprine PRNP polymorphisms at codons 171, 211, 222 and 240 in a Greek herd and their association with classical scrapie

The association between PRNP variation and scrapie incidence was investigated in a highly affected Greek goat herd. Four mutations were identified at codons 171Q/R, 211R/Q, 222Q/K and 240P/S. Lysine at codon 222 was found to be associated with the protection from natural scrapie (P=0.0111). Glutamine at codon 211 was observed in eight animals, all of them being scrapie-negative, indicating a possible protective role of this polymorphism although statistical analysis failed to support it (P=0.1074). A positive association (P=0.0457) between scrapie-affected goats and the wild-type Q(171)R(211)Q(222)S(240) allele is presented for the first time. In addition, a novel R(171)RQS allele, which is identical to the A(136)R(154)R(171) allele that has been associated with resistance to classical scrapie in sheep, was observed in low frequency. Resistant alleles that include K(222) and Q(211) are absent or rare in sheep and can provide the basis for the development of a feasible breeding programme for scrapie eradication in goats.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland. RESULTS: In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Diversity in neuroanatomical distribution of abnormal prion protein in atypical scrapie

Scrapie is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) in sheep and goats. In recent years, atypical scrapie cases were identified that differed from classical scrapie in the molecular characteristics of the disease-associated pathological prion protein (PrP(sc)). In this study, we analyze the molecular and neuropathological phenotype of nine Swiss TSE cases in sheep and goats. One sheep was identified as classical scrapie, whereas six sheep, as well as two goats, were classified as atypical scrapie. The latter revealed a uniform electrophoretic mobility pattern of the proteinase K-resistant core fragment of PrP(sc) distinct from classical scrapie regardless of the genotype, the species, and the neuroanatomical structure. Remarkably different types of neuroanatomical PrP(sc) distribution were observed in atypical scrapie cases by both western immunoblotting and immunohistochemistry. Our findings indicate that the biodiversity in atypical scrapie is larger than expected and thus impacts on current sampling and testing strategies in small ruminant TSE surveillance.

Atypical scrapie in a Swiss goat and implications for transmissible spongiform encephalopathy surveillance

Different types of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) affect sheep and goats. In addition to the classical form of scrapie, both species are susceptible to experimental infections with the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent, and in recent years atypical scrapie cases have been reported in sheep from different European countries. Atypical scrapie in sheep is characterized by distinct histopathologic lesions and molecular characteristics of the abnormal scrapie prion protein (PrP(sc)). Characteristics of atypical scrapie have not yet been described in detail in goats. A goat presenting features of atypical scrapie was identified in Switzerland. Although there was no difference between the molecular characteristics of PrP(sc) in this animal and those of atypical scrapie in sheep, differences in the distribution of histopathologic lesions and PrP(sc) deposition were observed. In particular the cerebellar cortex, a major site of PrP(sc) deposition in atypical scrapie in sheep, was found to be virtually unaffected in this goat. In contrast, severe lesions and PrP(sc) deposition were detected in more rostral brain structures, such as thalamus and midbrain. Two TSE screening tests and PrP(sc) immunohistochemistry were either negative or barely positive when applied to cerebellum and obex tissues, the target samples for TSE surveillance in sheep and goats. These findings suggest that such cases may have been missed in the past and could be overlooked in the future if sampling and testing procedures are not adapted. The epidemiological and veterinary public health implications of these atypical cases, however, are not yet known.