Recueil de lettres et de pièces originales.

Contient : 1 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « connestable » de France, Louis de Luxembourg, comte de Saint-Pol. « A Ham, le IIIe jour de juing » ; 2 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancelier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Mehung sur Loire, le XIe jour d'aoust » ; 3 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancelier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Saint Laurens des Eaues, le troizme jour d'aoust » ; 4 Lettre du roy « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Au Plessiz du Parc, le derrain jour de janvier » ; 5 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancelier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Au Plessis du Parc, le XVIIe jour d'avril » ; 6 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Au Plesseis du Parc, le Xe jour d'octobre » ; 7 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Armenonville, le derrain jour de juillet » ; 8 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A La Motte d'Egry, le XXIIe jour de juillet » ; 9 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A La Mote d'Esgry, le XXIIe jour de juillet » ; 10 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Vieny, le XXIe jour d'aoust... mil IIII.C.IIII.XX. » ; 11 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Aux Forges, le XVIe jour de mars » ; 12 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Saint Laurens des Eaulx, le VIe jour d'aoust » ; 13 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Angers, le XXIe jour de septembre » ; 14 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI « au chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Clery, le VIIIe jour de septembre » ; 15 Avis envoyé à Louis XI touchant Charles, duc de Guienne ; 16 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Noyon, le XXIIIe jour de may » ; 17 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI à «... maistre Pierre d'Oriole, chancellier de France. A Thouars, le XXIIIIe jour de fevrier... mil IIII.C.IIII.XX. et ung » ; 18 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Ablon, le XIIIIe jour de mars » ; 19 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Aux Forges, le XXIIe jour de janvier » ; 20 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Amboise, le XXIIe jour de septembre » ; 21 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Aux Forges, le sixme jour de mars... l'an mil IIII.C.LXXVIII » ; 22 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A La Neuville en Ham, le XXVIIe jour de mars... M.CCCC.LXXVIII » ; 23 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Au Plessis, le IIIIe jour de mars 1482... » ; 24 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Auzon, le XXVIIIe jour de novembre » ; 25 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Au Pleissiz du Parc, le derrain jour de fevrier » ; 26 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Saint Martin de Caude, le IIe jour de decembre » ; 27 Obligation de « LOYS DE LUXEMBOURG », comte de Saint-Pol. «... XXe jour de juing, l'an mil CCCC. cincquante » ; 28 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A La Mote en Poictou, le XIme jour de decembre » ; 29 « Cedulle » du roi « LOYS » XI à « Jehan Lalemant,... Donné au Plessis de Roye, le XIIIIe jour de mars, l'an mil CCCC. soixante et dix » ; 30 « Les Parties dont il fault faire cedulle à Jehan Lalemant pour icelles bailler à sire Jehan Briçonnet, receveur general des finances, pour emploier ou fait de son office... » ; 31 Minute d'une lettre de LOUIS XI au « roy de Secille. Escript à Angiers, juing » ; 32 Minute d'un placet adressé au roi de Sicile ; 33 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancelier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Touars, le XXVIe jour de decembre... M.CCCC.LXXVIII » ; 34 Lettre de « P. D'ORIOLE, chancelier de France... à maistre J. Bude, conseillier du roy. A Sainct-Mor des Fossez, le XXVIIme jour d'aoust, l'an mil CCCC. soixante et quinze » ; 35 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI à « maistre Pierre d'Oriole,... A Ham, le IIIe jour de juing » ; 36 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancellier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « Au Plessis du Parc, le deuxme jour d'avril » ; 37 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI au « chancelier » de France, Pierre d'Oriolle. « A Meung sur Loire, le deuxme jour de septembre » ; 38 Lettre du roi « LOYS » XI aux « commissaires à Chinon... Au Plessis du Parc-les Tours, le IIIIe jour de setembre » ; 39 « Inventoire » fait par PIERRE D'ORIOLLE « des sacz et lettres du roy estans à Tours » ; 40 « Memoire de ce qu'il fault commander et ordonner aux consulz, manans et habitans des villes et villages par où passera l'Empereur par ce royaulme »

Recueil de pièces originales et de copies de pièces indiquées comme telles dans le dépouillement qui suit.

Contient : 1 « Memoires pour savoir et congnoistre les droiz que le roy de Navarre a et peult avoir et demander en certaines terres et seigneuries estans ou royaulme de France » et dépendant du duché de Nemours. « Faict à Paris, le VIIe jour de mars, l'an M.IIII.C.IIII.XX.XVII ». Copie ; 2 Histoire généalogique des comtes de Foix ; 3 Arrêt de la cour de parlement, qui maintient à la vicomtesse de Limoges son droit de justice sur les bourgeois et habitants de Limoges, et défend à Édouard Ier, roi d'Angleterre, de la troubler dans l'exercice de ce droit. « Actum Parisius, anno Domini M°.CC° septuagesimo quarto, mense septembris ». En latin. Copie ; 4 « Sentence arbitralle » rendue par GIRAULT DE MAUMONT, chanoine de Lyon, et HELIE, son frère, par laquelle sont réglés les droits respectifs de Marguerite, vicomtesse de Limoges, et des bourgeois et habitants de la ville de ce nom. « Actum mense aprilis, anno Domini M°.CC° septuagesimo quinto ». En latin. Copie ; 5 Acte par lequel le roi CHARLES V rend, sous condition d'hommage, à Jeanne de Penthièvre, la vicomté de Limoges qu'il avait reçue d'elle en donation. « Datum Parisius, nona die jullii anno Domini M° trecentesimo sexagesimo nono ». En latin. Copie ; 6 Confirmation par le roi CHARLES IV du choix fait par ses commissaires le sénéchal de Toulouse et Étienne Alberti de certaines terres de la sénéchaussée de Toulouse, sur lesquelles devait être assise la rente annuelle de cinquante livres accordée par ledit roi au Sr Arnaud d'Euse. « Actum Parisius, anno Domini M°.CCC°.XXVI°, mense januarii ». En latin. Copie ; 7 « Testament de BERNARD [II], conte D'ARMIGNAC, en son vivant connestable de France », fait le 11 avril 1398. En latin ; 8 « Factum » pour « Alain, sire d'Albret », contre Charles, duc d'Alençon, au sujet de la succession de Charles Ier, comte d'Armagnac, 1498 ; 9 Production du « testament de JEHAN » Ier, comte D'ARMAGNAC, du 5 avril 1373. En latin. Ce testament est accompagné des postilles d'Alain d'Albret et de Charles, duc d'Alençon, 1498 ; 10 Testament de JEAN Ier, comte D'ARMAGNAC, fait le 5 avril 1373. En latin. Copie ; 11 Procès-verbal de la signification faite à Madeleine, princesse de Viane, et à Catherine, reine de Navarre, sa fille, d'un ajournement au parlement de Paris, à elles donné par le roi Charles VIII, pour y faire juger le différend qu'elles avaient avec Jean de Foix, vicomte de Narbonne. Le 8 janvier 1488 ; 12 « Responce de [JEAN] DE FOIXS », vicomte DE NARBONNE, à une signification semblable. Copie ; 13 Vidimus du testament de JEAN II, le Bossu, comte d'Armagnac, en date du 25 mai 1384. En latin ; 14 Inventaire des papiers de « feu maistre Pierre Ramond de Pereriis, en son vivant juge d'appel de Bigorre et conseillier du roy de Navarre », fait à Tarbes, le 11 mai 1518. Copie ; 15 Mémoire dressé pour soutenir les droits de Françoise d'Alençon, veuve de Charles de Bourbon, duc de Vendôme, contre ses enfants, dans la succession du duc de Vendôme, 1537. Copie ; 16 État de la cause pendante entre Odet de Foix, Sr de Lautrec, demandeur, en l'instance de subrogation au procès de Gaston de Foix, duc de Nemours, contre Catherine de Foix, reine de Navarre, défenderesse. Entre 1512 et 1517. Copie ; 17 « Inventoire dez pieces qui ont esté trouvéez au coffre de monseigneur La Mamilliere à Ortes, faict par RAYMOND DE NEYS, par commandement du roy ». 1547 ; 18 et 19 Deux récépissés donnés par « JACQUES DU PRE, chevalier, seigneur DE LA MABILLIERE », des pièces à lui remises par « Me Ademard Mosnier, Sr de Planeaulx », le 30 mai 1547 ; 20 Minute de la pièce n° 16 ; 21 Mémoire pour « Guy [XVII], conte de Laval, et damoiselle Claude de Foix, sa femme, demandeurs », contre « Charles de Croy, conte de Seinghan, defendeur », relativement au partage des biens acquis par feu « Mre Guillaume de Croy, Sr de Chevres,... de la royne Germaine de Foix, douhairiere d'Aragon ». Vers 1541. Copie ; 22 à 24 Trois copies de l'inventaire des pièces établissant les droits des comtes de Foix sur les fiefs d'Arrabat, Mauléon, Barbazan, Castel-Bajac, Castres et Fimarcon ; 25 Récapitulation des actes du procès intenté par Amanieu, cardinal d'Albret, à Frère Jehan Marre, 1502-1506 ; 26 Inventaire de pièces produites audit procès pour le cardinal d'Albret. Copie ; 27 Notes sur les obligations des fidéicommissaires ; 28 « Inventaire des pièces » produites au parlement par « madame Katherine de Foix, royne de Navarre », contre Gaston de Foix, duc de Nemours ; 29 Factum pour Catherine de Foix, reine de Navarre, contre Gaston de Foix, duc de Nemours. En latin. Copie ; 30 Requête adressée au grand conseil par CHARLES IV, duc D'ALENÇON, comte D'ARMAGNAC et DE FEZENSAC, et MARGUERITE DE FRANCE, sa femme, demandant la reprise du procès qu'ils soutenaient contre Henri II, roi de Navarre, « touchant le comté d'Armagnac ». Minute ; 31 « Jura, deveria, privilegia, libertates, consuetudines et franchesie que et quas dominus comes Armaniaci ac dominus vicecomes Leomanie eorumque predecessores habuerunt et habere debent in comitatu Ruthenensi ». En latin. Copie ; 32 « Super introitu civitatis Ruthenensis faciendo per illustrem et magnifficum principem dominum Johannem, Dei gratia comitem Ruthenensem, servetur sequens ordo ». En latin. Copie ; 33 et 34 Deux copies de l'inventaire mentionné au n° 22 ; 35 Rôle des « gentilhommes, officiers et pensionaires » entretenus par Henri II, roi de Navarre, auprès de sa soeur Anne, comtesse d'Astarac. « Donné à Bourdeaulx, le IIIe jour de juillet, l'an mil cincq cens trente » ; 36 « Inventaire des sacz » de procédures de « Me Pierre Du Chesne,... 1560 ». Copie ; 37 « Inventaire des pièces estans dedans les sacz de Foix, Bigorre et autres... 1530 ». Copie

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Multivariate analysis of the energy cycle of the South American rainy season

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the identification of patterns of the rainy season and the associated mechanisms in terms of their energetics. The first combined EOF represents the northwest-southeast dipole of the precipitation between South and Central America, the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The second combined EOF represents a synoptic pattern associated with the SACZ (South Atlantic convergence zone) and the third EOF is in spatial quadrature to the second EOF. The phase relationship of the EOFs, as computed from the principal components (PCs), suggests a nonlinear transition from the SACZ to the fully developed SAMS mode by November and between both components describing the SACZ by September-October (the rainy season onset). According to the LEC, the first mode is dominated by the eddy generation term at its maximum, the second by both baroclinic and eddy generation terms and the third by barotropic instability previous to the connection to the second mode by September-October. The predominance of the different LEC components at each phase of the SAMS can be used as an indicator of the onset of the rainy season in terms of physical processes, while the existence of the outstanding spectral peaks in the time dependence of the EOFs at the intraseasonal time scale could be used for monitoring purposes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Estudo da precipitação e seus impactos no município de Rio Claro: uma análise do ano de 2011

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Variabilidade da precipitação pluviométrica nas regiões Sudeste e Sul do Brasil

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Influência de sistemas meteorológicos de grande escala sobre a distribuição de raios na Amazônia Oriental, com aplicação no setor elétrico

Foi feito um estudo da associação entre a densidade de ocorrência de raios com condições meteorológicas no leste da região Amazônica entre os anos de 2006 a 2008. A região estudada foi limitada por uma grade geográfica entre as latitudes 0º a -10º e longitudes -53º a -43º. Foram desenvolvidos métodos computacionais de processamento estatístico e geração de mapas de ocorrências de raios para diferentes intervalos de tempo. Esses métodos foram aplicados para determinar os pontos de altas ocorrências de raios ao longo de linhas de transmissão de energia elétrica, a fim de oferecer subsídios para a proteção e operação dos sistemas elétricos da região. Foram utilizados dados da rede de detecção de raios do SIPAM para redimensionar a detecção do sistema de alcance intercontinental STARNET, e subsequentemente, foram obtidos mapas de densidade de raios mais uniformes e realistas. Esses mapas foram interpretados em períodos semanais e sazonais, considerando as observações simultâneas de chuva, vento, radiação de onda longa e a presença de sistemas meteorológicos de grande escala. Zona de Convergência Intertropical e Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCIT, ZCAS) definidos pela convergência de ventos e anomalias negativas de Radiação de Ondas Longas ( ROL). Os resultados mostraram boa correspondência entre as áreas de convecção e a intensa ocorrência de raios. Nas regiões de mais alta atividade elétrica atmosférica, foi observada ocorrência de convergência dos ventos e anomalias negativas de ROL, para situações de presença de ZCAS e ZCIT sobre a região. A atividade de raios também coincidiu, com algumas exceções, com áreas de maior precipitação em períodos semanais. Foi observado também que, durante um trimestre seco, os segmentos de linhas de transmissão de Mojú-Tailândia e Jacundá-Marabá apresentaram maior incidência de raios. O pico da densidade de raios chegou a 18 raios/km²/trimestre em alguns locais. Durante o trimestre chuvoso, a densidade geral de raios foi 86% maior e apresentou distribuição espacial mais uniforme quando comparada com um trimestre seco. Este estudo mostrou não somente como as características meteorológicas influenciaram na distribuição e quantidade raios, mas também que a elevada atividade de descargas elétricas na região deve ser uma preocupação importante para os sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica e outras atividades humanas na Amazônia Oriental.

Variabilidade da precipitação na Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos do médio Paranapanema

Analysis of variability of rainfall UGRHI-17 is important because it is located in an area of agriculture. This importance is through a better dialogue between research and farmers, who can see this, an analysis of events that impact your direct planting. Noting the periodic occurrence of these events, agriculture can be prevented by protecting your planting and ensuring a good harvest. The analysis and observation of the entire region is through the location of the stations, which allow a more complete analysis if they are well scattered throughout the unit. Through calculations parse wet and dry years, and this work will be given emphasis to the wet years. They presented the climatological average above average extracted for all seasons. These wet years are generally associated with events such as El Niño and the intensification of SACZ. For these years, was also observed the spatial distribution of rainfall through isolines. How to deal with regional data, the Geostatistics was a resource used in this work to make the analysis more complete and closer to the actual data from the wide year-to-interannual scale. Their adoption is in the preparation of contour, making the spatial distribution more accurate.

Análise da variabilidade pluvial na Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos do Paraíba do Sul (UGRHI-2)

The study of variability becomes increasingly important nowadays . Studying the behavior of rainfall before external events is of paramount importance. The region of Vale do Paraíba , it is important to study variability , since the region is influenced by the ocean and constant cold fronts that end causing precipitation during most months of the year . This study aims to analyze the variability in rain UGRHI - 2 by analyzing the interference of ENSO events / Southern Oscillation and the Convergence Zone South Atlantic (SACZ) in the amount and distribution of rainfall. The UGRHI helped were created for distribution and control of water in the state of São Paulo , divided watersheds were avoided so that problems such as poor distribution and water shortages in some areas of the state . To study variability , various software , including Excel , Variowin and R statistical package , the subroutine Climatol were used , with the goal of developing isolines showing the spatial distribution of rainfall anomalies in the years studied also the anomaly index was studied rain (IAC) , noting more effectively the years of positive and negative anomaly , with the purpose of studying the temporal variability of rainfall in the study area.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Análise climatológica da precipitação e do transporte de umidade na região da ZCAS através da nova geração de reanálises

O conhecimento do desempenho das reanálises e dos erros associados a elas apresenta um papel fundamental na compreensão dos processos físicos que ocorrem na atmosfera. Este trabalho tem por objetivo documentar as principais características da precipitação associada à Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS), baseado em seis conjuntos de reanálises atmosféricas (MERRA, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP 1, NCEP 2 e NCEP CFSR) e cinco conjuntos de produtos observados de precipitação (SALDAS, CPC, CMAP, GPCP e GLDAS). Através destes dados também foi analisado o transporte de umidade sobre a região da ZCAS, para os anos de 1979 a 2007. Em resumo, este trabalho evidencia o avanço das novas reanálises na tentativa de representar de forma mais adequada a variável precipitação acumulada. Os diagramas de Taylor mostram que os produtos de precipitação estão bem correlacionados com o ponto de referência (CPC), com coeficientes entre 0,6 e 0,9. Somente a reanálise do NCEP CFSR possui correlações próximas as dos produtos de precipitação. Os conjuntos mais antigos de reanálises apresentam correlações menores, abaixo de 0,6. O Oceano Atlântico é a fonte principal do fluxo de umidade para a direção da ZCAS, que diminui na direção do continente. Na Região SE do Brasil, a topografia tem um papel importante para a convergência de umidade. Já na parte noroeste da ZCAS, este fator deve estar associado a processos termodinâmicos.