Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks From Perils

Financial survival in the hotel and restaurant business can depend upon a mastery of the basic principles of risk management. This article explains the series of steps leading to the successful implementation of the risk management techniques most appropriate for a given hotel or restaurant.

A Teoria da assunção do risco e a prática esportiva, análise à luz do direito civil-constitucional.

O presente trabalho analisa a teoria da assunção do risco, que se originou no Direito francês com influência do commow Law, aplicável na atividade desportiva à luz dos princípios e valores do Direito Civil-Constitucional. O risco é estudado a partir dos conceitos de liberdade e dignidade, demonstrando que a liberdade não é absoluta, limitada pela dignidade. Nesta acepção, surge o risco, inerente à natureza humana, que é fruto da liberdade, portanto, também, pela dignidade. Na atividade desportiva, o risco é inseparável, o atleta na busca pela superação o assume naturalmente. Assim, a teoria da assunção do risco só se legitima, se presentes o respeito aos valores e princípios constitucionais, principalmente, a dignidade e aceitabilidade social, fatores vitais no estudo dos danos causados na prática desportiva. Por fim, se legítima a aceitação do risco, haverá exclusão do nexo causal.

Theoretical perspectives on motorcycle training: reducing risk taking

Little past empirical support has been found for the efficacy of motorcycle rider training as a road safety countermeasure. However, it has been argued that rider training should focus more particularly on the psychosocial factors that influence risk taking behaviour in addition to the traditional practice of developing vehicle-handling skills. This paper examines how rider training to reduce risk taking could be guided by appropriate theories. Two fundamental perspectives are examined: firstly training can be considered in terms of behaviour change, and secondly in terms of adult learning. Whilst behaviour change theories assume some pre-existing level of dysfunctional behaviour, an adult learning perspective does not necessarily carry this assumption. This distinction in perspectives conceptually aligns with the notions of intervention and prevention (respectively), with possible implications for specific target groups for pre-licence and post-licence training. The application of the Theory of Reasoned Action (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1975, 1980) and Transformative Learning Theory (Mezirow, 1997) to a pre-licence rider training program in Queensland, Australia is discussed.

Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences

Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over eight days to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking, and found that participants became more risk averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an under-appreciated cause of market instability.

Risk minimization in water quality control problems of a river system

Methodologies are presented for minimization of risk in a river water quality management problem. A risk minimization model is developed to minimize the risk of low water quality along a river in the face of conflict among various stake holders. The model consists of three parts: a water quality simulation model, a risk evaluation model with uncertainty analysis and an optimization model. Sensitivity analysis, First Order Reliability Analysis (FORA) and Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the fuzzy risk of low water quality. Fuzzy multiobjective programming is used to formulate the multiobjective model. Probabilistic Global Search Laussane (PGSL), a global search algorithm developed recently, is used for solving the resulting non-linear optimization problem. The algorithm is based on the assumption that better sets of points are more likely to be found in the neighborhood of good sets of points, therefore intensifying the search in the regions that contain good solutions. Another model is developed for risk minimization, which deals with only the moments of the generated probability density functions of the water quality indicators. Suitable skewness values of water quality indicators, which lead to low fuzzy risk are identified. Results of the models are compared with the results of a deterministic fuzzy waste load allocation model (FWLAM), when methodologies are applied to the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river system in southern India, with a steady state BOD-DO model. The fractional removal levels resulting from the risk minimization model are slightly higher, but result in a significant reduction in risk of low water quality. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.

Welfare risk assessment:The benefits and common pitfalls

Risk is defined as a situation involving exposure to danger. Risk assessment by nature characterises the probability of a negative event occurring and quantifies the consequences of such an event. Risk assessment is increasingly being used in the field of animal welfare as a means of drawing comparisons between multiple welfare problems within and between species and identifying those that should be prioritised by policy-makers, either because they affect a large proportion of the population or because they have particularly severe consequences for those affected. The assessment of risk is typically based on three fundamental factors: intensity of consequences, duration affected by consequences and prevalence. However, it has been recognised that these factors alone do not give a complete picture of a hazard and its associated consequences. Rather, to get a complete picture, it is important to also consider information about the hazard itself: probability of exposure to the hazard and duration of exposure to the hazard. The method has been applied to a variety of farmed species (eg poultry, dairy cows, farmed fish), investigating housing, husbandry and slaughter procedures, as well as companion animals, where it has been used to compare inherited defects in pedigree dogs and horses. To what extent can we trust current risk assessment methods to get the priorities straight? How should we interpret the results produced by such assessments? Here, the potential difficulties and pitfalls of the welfare risk assessment method will be discussed: (i) the assumption that welfare hazards are independent; (ii) the problem of quantifying the model parameters; and (iii) assessing and incorporating variability and uncertainty into welfare risk assessments. © 2012 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare.

The Risk Implications of Globalisation: An Exploratory Analysis of 105 Major Industrial Incidents (1971–2010)

This paper revisits work on the socio-political amplification of risk, which predicts that those living in developing countries are exposed to greater risk than residents of developed nations. This prediction contrasts with the neoliberal expectation that market driven improvements in working conditions within industrialising/developing nations will lead to global convergence of hazard exposure levels. It also contradicts the assumption of risk society theorists that there will be an ubiquitous increase in risk exposure across the globe, which will primarily affect technically more advanced countries. Reviewing qualitative evidence on the impact of structural adjustment reforms in industrialising countries, the export of waste and hazardous waste recycling to these countries and new patterns of domestic industrialisation, the paper suggests that workers in industrialising countries continue to face far greater levels of hazard exposure than those of developed countries. This view is confirmed when a data set including 105 major multi-fatality industrial disasters from 1971 to 2000 is examined. The paper concludes that there is empirical support for the predictions of socio-political amplification of risk theory, which finds clear expression in the data in a consistent pattern of significantly greater fatality rates per industrial incident in industrialising/developing countries.

Enterprise Risk Management e o seu impacto no desempenho das empresas: Estudo de caso de seis instituições financeiras nacionais

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria, sob orientação do Mestre Fernando Teixeira Pinto

Adding one risk to another: generalizing the unavoidable (background) risk

This paper provides a complete generalization of the background risk models. In so doing, first, it relaxes the independence assumption. Second, it adopts a general functional form. Third, itadopts a general type of risk. Furthermore, it introduces a new general form of background risk.

The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models.

The potential inefficiency of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis, forecasting and risk management

This paper examines the implications of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis. The marketing-margin concept has a long and distinguished history, but it has caused considerable controversy. This is particularly the case in the context of analyzing the distribution of research gains in multi-stage production systems. We derive optimal tax schemes for raising revenues to finance research and promotion in a downstream market, derive the rules for efficient allocation of the funds, and compare the rules with an without the marketing-margin assumption. Applying the methodology to quarterly time series on the Australian beef-cattle sector and, with several caveats, we conclude that, during the period 1978:2 - 1988:4, the Australian Meat and Livestock Corporation optimally allocated research resources.

Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap

1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species’ traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species’ traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14–99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases.

Conceptualising industrial relations in the "risk society"

This paper contrasts the characteristics of different types of modernities, noting the present transition occurring between its simple and reflexive manifestations. It then demonstrates how mainstream industrial relations theories have long been framed by a collectivist 'risk insurance principle '. In combining these two observations the argument is made that theories built around institutional dependencies that rely on the evidence or assumption ofoperable risk insurance principles and collective guardianships of workplace well being make less sense in a world of emerging personal narratives ofchoice and dependency that centre around individuals taking personal responsibility for avoiding or diminishing the risks of their engagement with uncertain labour markets. The discussion concludes by setting out the social and epistemological conditions under which future industrial relations theorising might beframed so as to accommodate these emerging conditions in a manner that is both realistic and relevant.

α-linolenic acid and the risk of prostate cancer. What is the evidence?

Purpose
Several studies have examined the association between polyunsaturated fatty acids and prostate cancer risk. We evaluated the evidence on the association between the essential polyunsaturated fatty acid, known as α-linolenic acid, and the risk of prostate cancer in humans.
Materials and Methods
We comprehensively reviewed published studies on the association between α-linolenic acid and the risk of prostate cancer using MEDLINE.
Results
A number of studies have shown a positive association between dietary, plasma or red blood cell levels of α-linolenic acid and prostate cancer. Other studies have demonstrated either no association or a negative association. The limitations of these studies include the assumption that dietary or plasma α-linolenic acid levels are positively associated with prostate tissue α-linolenic acid levels, and measurement errors of dietary, plasma and red blood cell α-linolenic acid levels.
Conclusions
More research is needed in this area before it can be concluded that there is an association between α-linolenic acid and prostate cancer.