Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Determination of intrarenal resistance index (RI) in patients with multiple myeloma

Renal impairment is a common complication of multiple myeloma occurring in up to 50 % of patients at some stage in their disease. Due to occurrence of cast nephropathies we hypothesized circulatory dysregulation (vasoconstriction) in the kidneys with measurable elevation of the resistance index among these patients which would have a diagnostic impact.

Age dependency of intrarenal resistance index (RI) in healthy adults and patients with fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to investigate the influence of age and gender on intrarenal resistance index (RI) measurements in 78 healthy subjects (46 males, 32 females; group 1) and 35 subjects (group 2) with fatty liver disease (28 males and 7 females). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: First, each subject underwent a conventional abdominal ultrasound examination. Then, intrarenal RI values were determined from three distinct interlobar and cortical arteries respectively on both kidneys. The correlation of intrarenal RI with age and gender as a variable was statistically evaluated by linear regression. RESULTS: In group 1, the variables gender, kidney region and comparison of right versus left kidney had no significant effect on intrarenal RI (p>0.05). The variable age, on the other hand, showed a significant positive correlation on all four defined measuring points (p<0.01) with linear correlation coefficients of r = 0.26 (left kidney, central) to r = 0.37 (right kidney, cortical). Therefore normal RI values at ages 25, 45, 65 years could be defined as 0.59, 0.61 and 0.63, respectively. Age dependency can thus be expressed as a function with the formula y = 0.565 + 0.001.x. Patients with fatty liver disease showed age dependency on renal RI (p<0.01) as well. CONCLUSION: In accordance with other studies, the influence of age on intrarenal RI measurement is significant in healthy subjects. Intrarenal RI values from subjects with a fatty liver disease showed age dependency as well. Therefore it is necessary to consider the age of the examined person to interpret RI values correctly.

Reliability Analysis of Earth Dams

In the present study, results of reliability analyses of four selected rehabilitated earth dam sections, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati, under pseudostatic loading conditions, are presented. Using the response surface methodology, in combination with first order reliability method and numerical analysis, the reliability index (beta) values are obtained and results are interpreted in conjunction with conventional factor of safety values. The influence of considering variability in the input soil shear strength parameters, horizontal seismic coefficient (alpha(h)), and location of reservoir full level on the stability assessment of the earth dam sections is discussed in the probabilistic framework. A comparison of results with those obtained from other method of reliability analysis, viz., Monte Carlo simulations combined with limit equilibrium approach, provided a basis for discussing the stability of earth dams in probabilistic terms, and the results of the analysis suggest that the considered earth dam sections are reliable and are expected to perform satisfactorily.

Approximation of Internal Refractive Index Variation Improves Image Guided Diffuse Optical Tomography of Breast

Effective usage of image guidance by incorporating the refractive index (RI) variation in computational modeling of light propagation in tissue is investigated to assess its impact on optical-property estimation. With the aid of realistic patient breast three-dimensional models, the variation in RI for different regions of tissue under investigation is shown to influence the estimation of optical properties in image-guided diffuse optical tomography (IG-DOT) using numerical simulations. It is also shown that by assuming identical RI for all regions of tissue would lead to erroneous estimation of optical properties. The a priori knowledge of the RI for the segmented regions of tissue in IG-DOT, which is difficult to obtain for the in vivo cases, leads to more accurate estimates of optical properties. Even inclusion of approximated RI values, obtained from the literature, for the regions of tissue resulted in better estimates of optical properties, with values comparable to that of having the correct knowledge of RI for different regions of tissue.

Reliability Based Design Optimization for Internal Stability of Reinforced Soil Structures Using Pseudo‐Static Method

Seismic design of reinforced soil structures involves many uncertainties that arise from the backfill soil properties and tensile strength of the reinforcement which is not addressed in current design guidelines. This paper highlights the significance of variability in the internal stability assessment of reinforced soil structures. Reliability analysis is applied to estimate probability of failure and pseudo‐static approach has been used for the calculation of the tensile strength and length of the reinforcement needed to maintain the internal stability against tension and pullout failures. Logarithmic spiral failure surface has been considered in conjunction with the limit equilibrium method. Two modes of failure namely, tension failure and pullout failure have been considered. The influence of variations of the backfill soil friction angle, the tensile strength of reinforcement, horizontal seismic acceleration on the reliability index against tension failure and pullout failure of reinforced earth structure have been discussed.

Reliability based design optimization of gravity retaining walls

In this paper the use of probability theory in reliability based optimum design of reinforced gravity retaining wall is described. The formulation for computing system reliability index is presented. A parametric study is conducted using advanced first order second moment method (AFOSM) developed by Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler (HL-RF) to asses the effect of uncertainties in design parameters on the probability of failure of reinforced gravity retaining wall. Totally 8 modes of failure are considered, viz overturning, sliding, eccentricity, bearing capacity failure, shear and moment failure in the toe slab and heel slab. The analysis is performed by treating back fill soil properties, foundation soil properties, geometric properties of wall, reinforcement properties and concrete properties as random variables. These results are used to investigate optimum wall proportions for different coefficients of variation of φ (5% and 10%) and targeting system reliability index (βt) in the range of 3 – 3.2.

Reliability-based load and resistance factor design approach for external seismic stability of reinforced soil walls

Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) approach for the design of reinforced soil walls is presented to produce designs with consistent and uniform levels of risk for the whole range of design applications. The evaluation of load and resistance factors for the reinforced soil walls based on reliability theory is presented. A first order reliability method (FORM) is used to determine appropriate ranges for the values of the load and resistance factors. Using pseudo-static limit equilibrium method, analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquake loading. The potential failure mechanisms considered in the analysis are sliding failure, eccentricity failure of resultant force (or overturning failure) and bearing capacity failure. The proposed procedure includes the variability associated with reinforced backfill, retained backfill, foundation soil, horizontal seismic acceleration and surcharge load acting on the wall. Partial factors needed to maintain the stability against three modes of failure by targeting component reliability index of 3.0 are obtained for various values of coefficients of variation (COV) of friction angle of backfill and foundation soil, distributed dead load surcharge, cohesion of the foundation soil and horizontal seismic acceleration. A comparative study between LRFD and allowable stress design (ASD) is also presented with a design example. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Separating the scattering and absorption coefficients using the real and imaginary parts of the refractive index with low-coherence interferometry.

We present an analytical method that yields the real and imaginary parts of the refractive index (RI) from low-coherence interferometry measurements, leading to the separation of the scattering and absorption coefficients of turbid samples. The imaginary RI is measured using time-frequency analysis, with the real part obtained by analyzing the nonlinear phase induced by a sample. A derivation relating the real part of the RI to the nonlinear phase term of the signal is presented, along with measurements from scattering and nonscattering samples that exhibit absorption due to hemoglobin.

Single-Mode Fiber Refractive Index Sensor Based on Core-Offset Attenuators

Mach-Zehnder and Michelson interferometers using core-offset attenuators were demonstrated. As the relative offset direction of the two attenuators in the Mach-Zehnder interferometer can significantly affect the extinction ratio of the interference pattern, single core-offset attenuator-based sensors appear more robust and repeatable. A novel fiber Michelson interferometer refractive index (RI) sensor was subsequently realized by a single core-offset attenuator and a layer of ~ 500-nm gold coating. The device had a minimum insertion loss of 0.01 dB and maximum extinction ratio over 9 dB. The sensitivity (0.333 nm) of the new sensor to its surrounding RI change (0.01) was found to be comparable to that (0.252 nm) of an identical long period gratings pair Mach-Zehnder interferometric sensor, and its ease of fabrication makes it a low-cost alternative to existing sensing applications.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Simultaneous cell morphometry and refractive index measurement with dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy and dye-enhanced dispersion of perfusion medium.

Digital holographic microscopy (DHM) allows optical-path-difference (OPD) measurements with nanometric accuracy. OPD induced by transparent cells depends on both the refractive index (RI) of cells and their morphology. This Letter presents a dual-wavelength DHM that allows us to separately measure both the RI and the cellular thickness by exploiting an enhanced dispersion of the perfusion medium achieved by the utilization of an extracellular dye. The two wavelengths are chosen in the vicinity of the absorption peak of the dye, where the absorption is accompanied by a significant variation of the RI as a function of the wavelength.

The relative and absolute reliability of two balance performance measures in chronic stroke patients

Purpose. To examine the relative reliability and absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Postural Assessment Scale for Stroke Patients (PASS) in chronic stroke patients. Method. A total of 52 mild to moderate stroke patients, who had a stroke more than 6 months previously, participated in the study. Both balance measures were administered twice, seven days apart, to the patients. A relative reliability index (intra-class correlation coefficient, ICC2,1) was used to examine the level of agreement between test and retest. Absolute reliability indices, including the Bland and Altman method, the standard error of measurement (SEM), and the smallest real differences (SRD), were used to define the extent to which a balance score varies on test-retest measurements. Results. Test-retest agreements were high (ICC2,1: BBS = 0.98; PASS = 0.97), indicating excellent agreement from a relative perspective. The SEM of the BBS and PASS, representing the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a group of individuals, were 2.4 and 1.1, respectively. The SRD of the BBS and PASS were 6.7 and 3.2, respectively, exhibiting the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a single individual. Conclusions. The test-retest agreements of the BBS and PASS were high in mild to moderate chronic stroke patients. The thresholds of both measures to detect real change are acceptable in research and clinical settings.

Measurement of the refractive index of soft contact lenses during wear

Purpose: To determine whether the refractive index (RI) of a soft contact lens can be evaluated using refractometry while the lens remains on the eye and to compare this with more traditional ex vivo RI measurements.

Methods: A slitlamp apparatus was modified to incorporate a customized Atago hand refractometer. With a double-masked study design, nine adapted symptomatic soft contact lens wearers wore a contact lens in each eye (lotrafilcon B and etafilcon A) in a randomized order. In vivo RI was determined from the relative Brix scale measurements immediately after lens insertion and after 1 and 10 hr of lens wear. Ex vivo refractometry was performed after 10 hr of lens wear for comparison. Means ± standard errors of the means are reported.

Results: In vivo RI values at baseline were 1.422 ± 0.0004 (lotrafilcon B) and 1.405 ± 0.0021 (etafilcon A); after 1 hr of lens wear, values were 1.423 ± 0.0006 and 1.408 ± 0.0007, respectively; and after 10 hr of lens wear, values were 1.424 ± 0.0004 and 1.411 ± 0.0010, respectively. Ex vivo RI values at the end of the 10 hr wearing period were 1.424 ± 0.0003 (lotrafilcon B) and 1.412 ± 0.0017 (etafilcon A). The change in in vivo RI across the day was statistically significant for the etafilcon A lens (repeated-measures analysis of variance, P<0.01) but not for the lotrafilcon B lens (P>0.05).

Conclusions: This novel adaptation of refractometry was able to measure the RI of soft contact lenses during wear (without lens removal). End of day RI measurements using in vivo and ex vivo refractometry were comparable with each other. Future work is required to determine whether this in vivo method can improve our understanding of the relationships between soft contact lens RI, hydration, on-eye lens performance, and symptomology.