Modelos baseados em agentes aplicados à dinâmica de preços do mercado imobiliário

Um dos aspectos regulatórios fundamentais para o mercado imobiliário no Brasil são os limites para obtenção de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Esses limites podem ser definidos de forma a aumentar ou reduzir a oferta de crédito neste mercado, alterando o comportamento dos seus agentes e, com isso, o preço de mercado dos imóveis. Neste trabalho, propomos um modelo de formação de preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro com base no comportamento dos agentes que o compõem. Os agentes vendedores têm comportamento heterogêneo e são influenciados pela demanda histórica, enquanto que os agentes compradores têm o seu comportamento determinado pela disponibilidade de crédito. Esta disponibilidade de crédito, por sua vez, é definida pelos limites para concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Verificamos que o processo markoviano que descreve preço de mercado converge para um sistema dinâmico determinístico quando o número de agentes aumenta, e analisamos o comportamento deste sistema dinâmico. Mostramos qual é a família de variáveis aleatórias que representa o comportamento dos agentes vendedores de forma que o sistema apresente um preço de equilíbrio não trivial, condizente com a realidade. Verificamos ainda que o preço de equilíbrio depende não só das regras de concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação, como também do preço de reserva dos compradores e da memória e da sensibilidade dos vendedores a alterações na demanda. A memória e a sensibilidade dos vendedores podem levar a oscilações de preços acima ou abaixo do preço de equilíbrio (típicas de processos de formação de bolhas); ou até mesmo a uma bifurcação de Neimark-Sacker, quando o sistema apresenta dinâmica oscilatória estável.

Fundamental limits on the suppression of molecular fluctuations.

Negative feedback is common in biological processes and can increase a system's stability to internal and external perturbations. But at the molecular level, control loops always involve signalling steps with finite rates for random births and deaths of individual molecules. Here we show, by developing mathematical tools that merge control and information theory with physical chemistry, that seemingly mild constraints on these rates place severe limits on the ability to suppress molecular fluctuations. Specifically, the minimum standard deviation in abundances decreases with the quartic root of the number of signalling events, making it extremely expensive to increase accuracy. Our results are formulated in terms of experimental observables, and existing data show that cells use brute force when noise suppression is essential; for example, regulatory genes are transcribed tens of thousands of times per cell cycle. The theory challenges conventional beliefs about biochemical accuracy and presents an approach to the rigorous analysis of poorly characterized biological systems.

Mortgage loans and access to housing for low-income households in Latin America

Includes bibliography

The Impact of Regulatory Heterogeneity on Agri-food Trade

We estimate the impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri-food trade using a gravity analysis that relies on detailed data on non-tariff measures (NTMs) collected by the NTM-Impact project. The data cover a broad range of import requirements for agricultural and food products for the EU and nine of its major trade partners. We find that trade is significantly reduced when importing countries have stricter maximum residue limits (MRLs) for plant products than exporting countries. For most other measures, due to their qualitative nature, we were unable to infer whether the importer has stricter standards relative to the exporter, and we do not find a robust relationship between these measures and trade. Our findings suggest that, at least for some import standards, harmonising regulations will increase trade. We also conclude that tariff reductions remain an effective means to increase trade even when NTMs abound.

A comparative study – regulatory requirements on subdivisions for increasing passive cooling

This is the third in a series of reports planned for this project. The aim of this research is to conduct a comparative study of current legislation or guidelines at the federal, state and local government levels to confirm if any natural ventilation criteria are required at the subdivision development stage of planning. It also seeks to discover if there are any other incentives, statutory planning or development principles that encourage developers to orient subdivision lots to maximize natural ventilation for the dwellings. Findings from the research in this report are intended to contribute to the discussion on the development of an enhanced lot rating methodology for sustainable subdivisions as documented in other reports in this series.

A comparative study : regulatory requirements on subdivisions for increasing passive cooling

A major project in the Sustainable Built Assets core area is the Sustainable Sub-divisions – Ventilation Project that is the second stage of a planned series of research projects focusing on sustainable sub-divisions. The initial project, Sustainable Sub-divisions: Energy focused on energy efficiency and examined the link between dwelling energy efficiency and sub-divisional layout. In addition, the potential for on site electricity generation, especially in medium and high-density developments, was also examined. That project recommended that an existing lot-rating methodology be adapted for use in SEQ through the inclusion of sub divisional appropriate ventilation data. Acquiring that data is the object of this project. The Sustainable Sub-divisions; Ventilation Project will produce a series of reports. The first report (Report 2002-077-B-01) summarised the results from an industry workshop and interviews that were conducted to ascertain the current attitudes and methodologies used in contemporary sub-division design in South East Queensland. The second report (Report 2002-077-B-02) described how the project is being delivered as outlined in the Project Agreement. It included the selection of the case study dwellings and monitoring equipment and data management process. This third report (Report 2002-077-B-03) provides an analysis and review of the approaches recommended by leading experts, government bodies and professional organizations throughout Australia that aim to increase the potential for passive cooling and heating at the subdivision stage. This data will inform issues discussed on the development of the enhanced lot-rating methodology in other reports of this series. The final report, due in June 2007, will detail the analysis of data for winter 2006 and summer 2007, leading to the development and delivery of the enhanced lot-rating methodology.

The impact of regulatory reforms on the earnings forecasting behaviour of IPO firms

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to jointly assess the impact of regulatory reform for corporate fundraising in Australia (CLERP Act 1999) and the relaxation of ASX admission rules in 1999, on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts in initial public offer (IPO) prospectuses. The relaxation of ASX listing rules permitted a new category of new economy firms (commitments test entities (CTEs))to list without a prior history of profitability, while the CLERP Act (introduced in 2000) was accompanied by tighter disclosure obligations and stronger enforcement action by the corporate regulator (ASIC). Design/methodology/approach – All IPO earnings forecasts in prospectuses lodged between 1998 and 2003 are examined to assess the pre- and post-CLERP Act impact. Based on active ASIC enforcement action in the post-reform period, IPO firms are hypothesised to provide more accurate forecasts, particularly CTE firms, which are less likely to have a reasonable basis for forecasting. Research models are developed to empirically test the impact of the reforms on CTE and non-CTE IPO firms. Findings – The new regulatory environment has had a positive impact on management forecasting behaviour. In the post-CLERP Act period, the accuracy of prospectus forecasts and their revisions significantly improved and, as expected, the results are primarily driven by CTE firms. However, the majority of prospectus forecasts continue to be materially inaccurate. Originality/value – The results highlight the need to control for both the changing nature of listed firms and the level of enforcement action when examining responses to regulatory changes to corporate fundraising activities.

Property law reforms in Queensland: Is the regulatory burden on land transactions reduced?

The reduction of unnecessary regulation was a clear policy objective of the Queensland government during 2014. In the area of property sales significant reforms were introduced from 1 December 2014. This article examines the key aspects of these reforms and whether there has been a reduction in red tape for sellers and buyers of land.

Theoretical Maximum Limits on Power-Handling Capacity of HVDC Cables

In the case of an ac cable, power transmission is limited by the length of the cable due to the capacitive reactive current component. It is well known that high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables do not have such limitations. However, insulation-related thermal problems pose a limitation on the power capability of HVDC cables. The author presents a viable theoretical development, a logical extension to Whitehead's theory on thermal limitations of the insulation. The computation of the maximum power-carrying capability of HVDC cables subject to limits on the maximum operable temperature of the insulation is presented. The limitation on the power-carrying capability is closely associated with the electrothermal insulation failure. The effect of environmental interaction by way of external thermal resistance, an important aspect, is also considered in the formulations. The Lagrange multiplier method has been used to handle the ensuing optimization problem. The theory is based on an accepted theory of thermal breakdown in insulation and is an important and a coherent extension of great significance.

Experiments in Neutrino Mass and Mixing: Part I - New Limits on Heavy Neutrino Emission in Nuclear Beta Decay. Part II - Fast Neutron Backgrounds for the San Onofre Neutrino Detector

In Part I of this thesis, a new magnetic spectrometer experiment which measured the β spectrum of ^(35)S is described. New limits on heavy neutrino emission in nuclear β decay were set, for a heavy neutrino mass range between 12 and 22 keV. In particular, this measurement rejects the hypothesis that a 17 keV neutrino is emitted, with sin^2 θ = 0.0085, at the 6δ statistical level. In addition, an auxiliary experiment was performed, in which an artificial kink was induced in the β spectrum by means of an absorber foil which masked a fraction of the source area. In this measurement, the sensitivity of the magnetic spectrometer to the spectral features of heavy neutrino emission was demonstrated.

In Part II, a measurement of the neutron spallation yield and multiplicity by the Cosmic-ray Underground Background Experiment is described. The production of fast neutrons by muons was investigated at an underground depth of 20 meters water equivalent, with a 200 liter detector filled with 0.09% Gd-loaded liquid scintillator. We measured a neutron production yield of (3.4 ± 0.7) x 10^(-5) neutrons per muon-g/cm^2, in agreement with other experiments. A single-to-double neutron multiplicity ratio of 4:1 was observed. In addition, stopped π^+ decays to µ^+ and then e^+ were observed as was the associated production of pions and neutrons, by the muon spallation interaction. It was seen that practically all of the π^+ produced by muons were also accompanied by at least one neutron. These measurements serve as the basis for neutron background estimates for the San Onofre neutrino detector.