Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

The CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) for prognosis of hospitalised cirrhotic patients without acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS Cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation frequently develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which is associated with high mortality rates. Recently, a specific score for these patients has been developed using the CANONIC study database. The aims of this study were to develop and validate the CLIF-C AD score, a specific prognostic score for hospitalised cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation (AD), but without ACLF, and to compare this with the Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Na scores. METHODS The derivation set included 1016 CANONIC study patients without ACLF. Proportional hazards models considering liver transplantation as a competing risk were used to identify score parameters. Estimated coefficients were used as relative weights to compute the CLIF-C ADs. External validation was performed in 225 cirrhotic AD patients. CLIF-C ADs was also tested for sequential use. RESULTS Age, serum sodium, white-cell count, creatinine and INR were selected as the best predictors of mortality. The C-index for prediction of mortality was better for CLIF-C ADs compared with Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Nas at predicting 3- and 12-month mortality in the derivation, internal validation and the external dataset. CLIF-C ADs improved in its ability to predict 3-month mortality using data from days 2, 3-7, and 8-15 (C-index: 0.72, 0.75, and 0.77 respectively). CONCLUSIONS The new CLIF-C ADs is more accurate than other liver scores in predicting prognosis in hospitalised cirrhotic patients without ACLF. CLIF-C ADs therefore may be used to identify a high-risk cohort for intensive management and a low-risk group that may be discharged early.

Socioeconomic disparities in childhood cancer survival in Switzerland.

In this study, we investigated whether childhood cancer survival in Switzerland is influenced by socioeconomic status (SES), and if disparities vary by type of cancer and definition of SES (parental education, living condition, area-based SES). Using Cox proportional hazards models, we analyzed 5-year cumulative mortality in all patients registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry diagnosed 1991-2006 below 16 years. Information on SES was extracted from the Swiss census by probabilistic record linkage. The study included 1602 children (33% with leukemia, 20% with lymphoma, 22% with central nervous system (CNS) tumors); with an overall 5-year survival of 77% (95%CI 75-79%). Higher SES, particularly parents' education, was associated with a lower 5-year cumulative mortality. Results varied by type of cancer with no association for leukemia and particularly strong effects for CNS tumor patients, where mortality hazard ratios for the different SES indicators, comparing the highest with the lowest group, ranged from 0.48 (95%CI: 0.28-0.81) to 0.71 (95%CI: 0.44-1.15). We conclude that even in Switzerland with a high quality health care system and mandatory health insurance, socioeconomic differences in childhood cancer survival persist. Factors causing these survival differences have to be further explored, to facilitate universal access to optimal treatment and finally eliminate social inequalities in childhood cancer survival. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

CD4 count at antiretroviral therapy initiation and the risk of loss to follow-up: results from a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is now recommended irrespective of CD4 count. However data on the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and loss to follow-up (LTFU) are limited and conflicting. METHODS We conducted a cohort analysis including all adults initiating ART (2008-2012) at three public sector sites in South Africa. LTFU was defined as no visit in the 6 months before database closure. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazards models examined the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and 24-month LTFU. Final models were adjusted for demographics, year of ART initiation, programme expansion and corrected for unascertained mortality. RESULTS Among 17 038 patients, the median CD4 at initiation increased from 119 (IQR 54-180) in 2008 to 257 (IQR 175-318) in 2012. In unadjusted models, observed LTFU was associated with both CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL. After adjustment, patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL were 1.35 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.63) times as likely to be LTFU after 24 months compared to those with a CD4 150-199 cells/μL. This increased risk for patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL was largest in the first 3 months on treatment. Correction for unascertained deaths attenuated the association between CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and LTFU while the association between CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL and LTFU persisted. CONCLUSIONS Patients initiating ART at higher CD4 counts may be at increased risk for LTFU. With programmes initiating patients at higher CD4 counts, models of ART delivery need to be reoriented to support long-term retention.

Adiposity and the perilipin gene: The role of single locus and multilocus variation, obesity-related quantitative traits, and disease-related phenotypes in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Obesity is a complex multifactorial disease and is a public health priority. Perilipin coats the surface of lipid droplets in adipocytes and is believed to stabilize these lipid bodies by protecting triglyceride from early lipolysis. This research project evaluated the association between genetic variation within the human perilipin (PLIN) gene and obesity-related quantitative traits and disease-related phenotypes in Non-Hispanic White (NHW) and African American (AA) participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. ^ Multivariate linear regression, multivariate logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between single gene variants (rs2304794, rs894160, rs8179071, and rs2304795) and multilocus variation (rs894160 and rs2304795) within the PLIN gene and both obesity-related quantitative traits (body weight, body mass index [BMI], waist girth, waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], estimated percent body fat, and plasma total triglycerides) and disease-related phenotypes (prevalent obesity, metabolic syndrome [MetS], prevalent coronary heart disease [CHD], and incident CHD). Single variant analyses were stratified by race and gender within race while multilocus analyses were stratified by race. ^ Single variant analyses revealed that rs2304794 and rs894160 were significantly related to plasma triglyceride levels in all NHWs and NHW women. Among AA women, variant rs8179071 was associated with triglyceride levels and rs2304794 was associated with risk-raising waist circumference (>0.8 in women). The multilocus effects of variants rs894160 and rs2304795 were significantly associated with body weight, waist girth, WHR, estimated percent body fat, class II obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2), class III obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2), and risk-raising WHR (>0.9 in men and >0.8 in women) in AAs. Variant rs2304795 was significantly related to prevalent MetS among AA males and prevalent CHD in NHW women; multilocus effects of the PLIN gene were associated with prevalent CHD among NHWs. Rs2304794 was associated with incident CHD in the absence of the MetS among AAs. These findings support the hypothesis that variation within the PLIN gene influences obesity-related traits and disease-related phenotypes. ^ Understanding these effects of the PLIN genotype on the development of obesity can potentially lead to tailored health promotion interventions that are more effective. ^

Response to chemotherapy, recurrence and survival in advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations, compared to those without

Objectives. Previous studies have shown a survival advantage in ovarian cancer patients with Ashkenazi-Jewish (AJ) BRCA founder mutations, compared to sporadic ovarian cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to determine if this association exists in ovarian cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations. In addition, we sought to account for possible "survival bias" by minimizing any lead time that may exist between diagnosis and genetic testing. ^ Methods. Patients with stage III/IV ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer and a non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1 or 2 mutation, seen for genetic testing January 1996-July 2007, were identified from genetics and institutional databases. Medical records were reviewed for clinical factors, including response to initial chemotherapy. Patients with sporadic (non-hereditary) ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer, without family history of breast or ovarian cancer, were compared to similar cases, matched by age, stage, year of diagnosis, and vital status at time interval to BRCA testing. When possible, 2 sporadic patients were matched to each BRCA patient. An additional group of unmatched, sporadic ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients was included for a separate analysis. Progression-free (PFS) & overall survival (OS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were calculated for variables of interest. Matched pairs were treated as clusters. Stratified log rank test was used to calculate survival data for matched pairs using paired event times. Fisher's exact test, chi-square, and univariate logistic regression were also used for analysis. ^ Results. Forty five advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish (non-AJ) BRCA mutations, 86 sporadic-matched and 414 sporadic-unmatched patients were analyzed. Compared to the sporadic-matched and sporadic-unmatched ovarian cancer patients, non-AJ BRCA mutation carriers had longer PFS (17.9 & 13.8 mos. vs. 32.0 mos., HR 1.76 [95% CI 1.13–2.75] & 2.61 [95% CI 1.70–4.00]). In relation to the sporadic- unmatched patients, non-AJ BRCA patients had greater odds of complete response to initial chemotherapy (OR 2.25 [95% CI 1.17–5.41]) and improved OS (37.6 mos. vs. 101.4 mos., HR 2.64 [95% CI 1.49–4.67]). ^ Conclusions. This study demonstrates a significant survival advantage in advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients with non-AJ BRCA mutations, confirming the previous studies in the Jewish population. Our efforts to account for "survival bias," by matching, will continue with collaborative studies. ^

Diabetes genes and risk of prostate cancer in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, yet the etiology remains uncertain. Meta-analyses show that PrCa risk is reduced by 16% in men with type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the mechanism is unknown. Recent genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses have found single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that consistently predict T2D risk. We evaluated associations of incident PrCa with 14 T2D SNPs in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. From 1987-2000, there were 397 incident PrCa cases ascertained from state or local cancer registries among 6,642 men (1,560 blacks and 5,082 whites) aged 45-64 years at baseline. Genotypes were determined by TaqMan assay. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between PrCa and increasing number of T2D risk-raising alleles for individual SNPs and for genetic risk scores (GRS) comprised of the number of T2D risk-raising alleles across SNPs. Two-way gene-gene interactions were evaluated with likelihood ratio tests. Using additive genetic models, the T2D risk-raising allele was associated with significantly reduced risk of PrCa for IGF2BP2 rs4402960 (hazard ratio [HR]=0.79; P=0.07 among blacks only), SLC2A2 rs5400 (race-adjusted HR=0.85; P=0.05) and UCP2 rs660339 (race-adjusted HR=0.84; P=0.02), but significantly increased risk of PrCa for CAPN10 rs3792267 (race-adjusted HR=1.20; P=0.05). No other SNPs were associated with PrCa using an additive genetic model. However, at least one copy of the T2D risk-raising allele for TCF7L2 rs7903146 was associated with reduced PrCa risk using a dominant genetic model (race-adjusted HR=0.79; P=0.03). These results imply that the T2D-PrCa association may be partly due to shared genetic variation, but these results should be verified since multiple tests were performed. When the combined, additive effects of these SNPs were tested using a GRS, there was nearly a 10% reduction in risk of PrCa per T2D risk-raising allele (race-adjusted HR=0.92; P=0.02). SNPs in IGF2BP2, KCNJ11 and SLC2A2 were also involved in multiple synergistic gene-gene interactions on a multiplicative scale. In conclusion, it appears that the T2D-PrCa association may be due, in part, to common genetic variation. Further knowledge of T2D gene-PrCa mechanisms may improve understanding of PrCa etiology and may inform PrCa prevention and treatment.^

Impact of hormonal therapy on survival and racial disparities in a large community-based cohort of older men with local/regional prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (CaP) is the most diagnosed non-cutaneous malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer mortality among United States males. Major racial disparities in incidence, survival, as well as treatment persist. The mortality is three times higher among African Americans (AAs) compared with Caucasians. Androgen carcinogenesis has been persistently implicated but results are inconsistent; and hormone manipulation has been the main stay of treatment for metastatic disease, supportive of the androgen carcinogenesis. The survival disadvantage of AAs has been attributed to the differences in socioeconomic factors (SES), tumor stage, and treatment. We hypostasized that HT prolongs survival in CaP and that the racial disparities in survival is influenced by variation in HT and primary therapies as well as SES. To address these overall hypothesis, we first utilized a random-effect meta-analytic design to examine evidence from randomized trials on the efficacy of androgen deprivation therapy in localized and metastatic disease, and assessed, using Cox proportional hazards models, the effectiveness of HT in prolonging survival in a large community-based cohort of older males diagnosed with local/regional CaP. Further we examined the role of HT and primary therapies on the racial disparities in CaP survival. The results indicated that adjuvant HT compared with standard care alone is efficacious in improving overall survival, whereas HT has no significant benefit in the real world experience in increasing the overall survival of older males in the community treated for local/regional disease. Further, racial differences in survival persist and were explained to some extent by the differences in the primary therapies (radical prostatectomy, radiation and watchful waiting) and largely by SES. Therefore, given the increased used of hormonal therapy and the cost-effectiveness today, more RCTs are needed to assess whether or not survival prolongation translates to improved quality of life, and to answer the research question on whether or not the decreased use of radical prostatectomy by AAs is driven by the Clinicians bias or AAs's preference of conservative therapy and to encourage AAs to seek curative therapies, thus narrowing to some degree the persistent mortality disparities between AAs and Caucasians. ^

Estrogen-induced gene expression and patient survival in high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary

Background. Assessment of estrogen receptor (ER) expression has inconsistent utility as a prognostic marker in epithelial ovarian carcinoma. In breast and endometrial cancers, the use of estrogen-induced gene panels, rather than ER expression alone, has shown improved prognostic capability. Specifically, over-expression of estrogen-induced genes in these tumors is associated with a better prognosis and signifies estrogen sensitivity that can be exploited with hormone antagonizing agents. It was therefore hypothesized that estrogen-induced gene expression in ovarian carcinoma would successfully predict outcomes and differentiate between tumors of varying estrogen sensitivities. Methods. Two hundred nineteen (219) patients with ovarian cancer who underwent surgery at M. D. Anderson between 2004 and 2007 were identified. Of these, eighty-three (83) patients were selected for inclusion because they had advanced stage, high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary or peritoneum, had not received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and had readily available frozen tissue for study. All patients had also received adjuvant treatment with platinum and taxane agents. The expression of seven genes known to be induced by estrogen in the female reproductive tract (EIG121, sFRP1, sFRP4, RALDH2, PR, IGF-1, and ER) was measured using qRT-PCR. Unsupervised cluster analyses of multiple gene permutations were used to categorize patients as high or low estrogen-induced gene expressors. QPCR gene expression results were then compared to ER and PR immunohistochemical (IHC) expression. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the effects of both individual genes and selected gene clusters on patient survival. Results. Median follow-up time was 38.7 months (range 1-68 months). In a multivariate model, overall survival was predicted by sFRP1 expression (HR 1.10 [1.02-1.19], p=0.01) and EIG121 expression (HR 1.28 [1.10-1.49], p<0.01). A cluster defined by EIG121 and ER was further examined because that combination appeared to reasonably segregate tumors into distinct groups of high and low estrogen-induced gene expressors. Shorter overall survival was associated with high estrogen-induced gene expressors (HR 2.84 [1.11-7.30], p=0.03), even after adjustment for race, age, body mass index, and residual disease at debulking. No difference in IHC ER or PR expression was noted between gene clusters. Conclusion. In sharp contrast to breast and endometrial cancers, high estrogen-induced gene expression predicts shorter overall survival in patients with high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma. An estrogen-induced gene biomarker panel may have utility as prognostic indicator and may be useful to guide management with estrogen antagonists in this population.^

Factors governing late-recurrence of disease in a cohort of early-stage breast cancer survivors

Purpose. To determine the risk of late breast cancer recurrence (5 years after treatment) in a population of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) between 1985-2000 and to examine the effect of this population’s BMI, smoking history, reproductive history, hormone use, and alcohol intake at the time of diagnosis on risk of late recurrence.^ Methods. Patients included 1,913 members of the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository recruited at MDACC who had survived without a recurrence for at least five years after their initial diagnosis of early stage breast cancer. Clinical and epidemiological information was ascertained twice on participants during the study—first by medical record abstraction then by patient interview at least five years after receipt of adjuvant treatment. A total of 223 late breast cancer recurrences were captured, with an average follow-up of 10.6 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

The impact of depression on patient outcomes among older adults with lung cancer

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Lung cancer rates in men and women with comparable histories of smoking

Background: Recent case-control studies suggest that, given equal smoking exposure, women may have a higher relative risk of developing lung cancer than men. Despite prospective data that conflict with this hypothesis, mechanistic studies to find a biologic basis for a sex difference continue. Methods: We addressed the hypothesis directly by analyzing prospective data from former and current smokers in two large cohorts-the Nurses' Health Study of women and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study of men. We calculated incidence rates and hazard ratios of lung cancer in women compared with men, adjusting for age, number of cigarettes smoked per day, age at start of smoking, and time since quitting, using Cox proportional hazards models. We also reviewed published results from prospective analyses. Results: From 1986 through 2000, 955 and 311 primary lung cancers were identified among 60 296 women and 25 397 men, respectively, who ranged in age from 40 to 79 years. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for women and men were 253 and 232, respectively, among current smokers and 81 and 73, respectively, among former smokers. The hazard ratio in women ever smokers compared with men was 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.95 to 1.31). Six published prospective cohort studies allowed assessment of comparative susceptibility to lung cancer by sex. None supported an excess risk of lung cancer for women. Conclusions: Women do not appear to have a greater susceptibility to lung cancer than men, given equal smoking exposure. Research should be focused on enhancing preventive interventions for all.

Impact of gender on risk stratification by exercise and dobutamine stress echocardiography: long-term mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men

Aims Prior research is limited with regard to the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of commonplace cardiac imaging modalities in women. The aim of this study was to examine 5-year mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men undergoing exercise or dobutamine stress echocardiography at three hospitals. Methods and results Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate time to cardiac death in this multi-centre, observational registry. Of the 11 132 patients, women had a greater frequency of cardiac risk factors (P < 0.0001). However, men more often had a history of coronary disease including a greater frequency of echocardiographic wall motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001). During 5 years of follow-up, 103 women and 226 men died from ischaernic heart disease (P < 0.0001). Echocardiographic estimates of left ventricular function (P < 0.0001) and the extent of ischaernic watt motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001) were highly predictive of cardiac death. Risk-adjusted 5-year survival was 99.4, 97.6, and 95% for exercising women with no, single, and multi-vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). For women undergoing dobutamine stress, 5-year survival was 95, 89, and 86.6% for those with 0, 1, and 2-3 vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Exercising men had a 2.0-fold higher risk at every level of worsening ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Significantly worsening cardiac survival was noted for the 1568 men undergoing dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001); no ischaemia was associated with 92% 5-year survival as compared with death rates of &GE; 16% for men with ischaemia on dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001). Conclusion Echocardiographic measures of inducible wall motion abnormalities and global and regional left ventricutar function are highly predictive of long-term outcome for women and men alike.

Increased use of emergency services by older people after health screening

Background: evaluation of the 'Keep Well At Home' (KWAH) Project in West London indicated that a programme of screening persons aged 75 and over had not reduced rates of emergency attendances and admissions to hospital. However, coverage of the target population was incomplete. The present analysis addresses 'efficacy'-whether individuals who completed the screening protocol as intended did subsequently use Accident & Emergency (A&E) services less often. Methods: the target population was divided into five groups, depending on whether an individual had completed none, one or both phases of screening, and whether deviations from the protocol related to incomplete coverage or refusal to participate further. We ascertained use of emergency services before screening and for up to 3 years afterwards by linkage of records from KWAH to those of local A&E Departments. Patterns of emergency care were examined as crude races and, via proportional hazards models, after adjustment for available confounders. Results: there was an increase of 51% (95% CI 22-86%) in the crude rate of emergency admissions in the year after first-phase screening compared with the 12 months before assessment. This was most obvious in individuals deemed at high risk who also underwent the second-phase assessment (adjusted hazard ratio relative to individuals not 'at risk'= 2.33; 95% CI 1.59-3.42). Conclusions: the available data do not allow us to distinguish between several possible explanations for the paradoxical increase in use of emergency services. However, what seem to be sensible policies do not necessarily have their intended effects when implemented in practice.