CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase as predictors for breast cancer recurrence: a combined analysis of seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the ability of CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) to predict breast cancer recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials were combined. The primary end point was relapse-free survival (RFS) (time from randomization to first breast cancer recurrence), and analyses included 3953 patients with one or more CA15-3 and ALP measurement during their RFS period. CA15-3 was considered abnormal if >30 U/ml or >50% higher than the first value recorded; ALP was recorded as normal, abnormal, or equivocal. Cox proportional hazards models with a time-varying indicator for abnormal CA15-3 and/or ALP were utilized. RESULTS: Overall, 784 patients (20%) had a recurrence, before which 274 (35%) had one or more abnormal CA15-3 and 35 (4%) had one or more abnormal ALP. Risk of recurrence increased by 30% for patients with abnormal CA15-3 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30; P = 0.0005], and by 4% for those with abnormal ALP (HR = 1.04; P = 0.82). Recurrence risk was greatest for patients with either (HR = 2.40; P < 0.0001) and with both (HR = 4.69; P < 0.0001) biomarkers abnormal. ALP better predicted liver recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: CA15-3 was better able to predict breast cancer recurrence than ALP, but use of both biomarkers together provided a better early indicator of recurrence. Whether routine use of these biomarkers improves overall survival remains an open question.

Cardiovascular mortality and exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields: a cohort study of Swiss railway workers

BACKGROUND: Exposure to intermittent magnetic fields of 16 Hz has been shown to reduce heart rate variability, and decreased heart rate variability predicts cardiovascular mortality. We examined mortality from cardiovascular causes in railway workers exposed to varying degrees to intermittent 16.7 Hz magnetic fields. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 20,141 Swiss railway employees between 1972 and 2002, including highly exposed train drivers (median lifetime exposure 120.5 muT-years), and less or little exposed shunting yard engineers (42.1 muT-years), train attendants (13.3 muT-years) and station masters (5.7 muT-years). During 464,129 person-years of follow up, 5,413 deaths were recorded and 3,594 deaths were attributed to cardio-vascular diseases. We analyzed data using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: For all cardiovascular mortality the hazard ratio compared to station masters was 0.99 (95%CI: 0.91, 1.08) in train drivers, 1.13 (95%CI: 0.98, 1.30) in shunting yard engineers, and 1.09 (95%CI: 1.00, 1.19) in train attendants. Corresponding hazard ratios for arrhythmia related deaths were 1.04 (95%CI: 0.68, 1.59), 0.58 (95%CI: 0.24, 1.37) and 10 (95%CI: 0.87, 1.93) and for acute myocardial infarction 1.00 (95%CI: 0.73, 1.36), 1.56 (95%CI: 1.04, 2.32), and 1.14 (95%CI: 0.85, 1.53). The hazard ratio for arrhythmia related deaths per 100 muT-years of cumulative exposure was 0.94 (95%CI: 0.71, 1.24) and 0.91 (95%CI: 0.75, 1.11) for acute myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence against an association between long-term occupational exposure to intermittent 16.7 Hz magnetic fields and cardiovascular mortality.

Predicting the evolution of Kaposi sarcoma, in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.

Outcomes of the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme for children: the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

OBJECTIVES: To assess paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes and their associations from a collaborative cohort representing 20% of the South African national treatment programme. DESIGN AND SETTING: Multi-cohort study of 7 public sector paediatric ART programmes in Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. SUBJECTS: ART-naive children (< or = 16 years) who commenced treatment with > or = 3 antiretroviral drugs before March 2008. OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to death or loss to follow-up were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Associations between baseline characteristics and mortality were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models stratified by site. Immune status, virological suppression and growth were described in relation to duration of ART. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) age of 6 078 children with 9 368 child-years of follow-up was 43 (15 - 83) months, with 29% being < 18 months. Most were severely ill at ART initiation. More than 75% of children were appropriately monitored at 6-monthly intervals with viral load suppression (< 400 copies/ml) being 80% or above throughout 36 months of treatment. Mortality and retention in care at 3 years were 7.7% (95% confidence interval 7.0 - 8.6%) and 81.4% (80.1 - 82.6%), respectively. Together with young age, all markers of disease severity (low weight-for-age z-score, high viral load, severe immune suppression, stage 3/4 disease and anaemia) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic clinical benefit for children accessing the national ART programme is demonstrated. Higher mortality in infants and those with advanced disease highlights the need for early diagnosis of HIV infection and commencement of ART.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal

BACKGROUND: The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). CONCLUSIONS: In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Electrocardiographic PR interval and adverse outcomes in older adults: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study

BACKGROUND The electrocardiographic PR interval increases with aging, differs by race, and is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), pacemaker implantation, and all-cause mortality. We sought to determine the associations between PR interval and heart failure, AF, and mortality in a biracial cohort of older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS The Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study is a prospective, biracial cohort. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to examine PR interval (hazard ratios expressed per SD increase) and 10-year risks of heart failure, AF, and all-cause mortality. Multivariable models included demographic, anthropometric, and clinical variables in addition to established cardiovascular risk factors. We examined 2722 Health ABC participants (aged 74±3 years, 51.9% women, and 41% black). We did not identify significant effect modification by race for the outcomes studied. After multivariable adjustment, every SD increase (29 ms) in PR interval was associated with a 13% greater 10-year risk of heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25) and a 13% increased risk of incident AF (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.23). PR interval >200 ms was associated with a 46% increased risk of incident heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.93). PR interval was not associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS We identified significant relationships of PR interval to heart failure and AF in older adults. Our findings extend prior investigations by examining PR interval and associations with adverse outcomes in a biracial cohort of older men and women.

Genetic variation in genes for the xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes CYP1A1, EPHX1, GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 and susceptibility to colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome.

Individuals with Lynch syndrome are predisposed to cancer due to an inherited DNA mismatch repair gene mutation. However, there is significant variability observed in disease expression likely due to the influence of other environmental, lifestyle, or genetic factors. Polymorphisms in genes encoding xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes may modify cancer risk by influencing the metabolism and clearance of potential carcinogens from the body. In this retrospective analysis, we examined key candidate gene polymorphisms in CYP1A1, EPHX1, GSTT1, GSTM1, and GSTP1 as modifiers of age at onset of colorectal cancer among 257 individuals with Lynch syndrome. We found that subjects heterozygous for CYP1A1 I462V (c.1384A>G) developed colorectal cancer 4 years earlier than those with the homozygous wild-type genotype (median ages, 39 and 43 years, respectively; log-rank test P = 0.018). Furthermore, being heterozygous for the CYP1A1 polymorphisms, I462V and Msp1 (g.6235T>C), was associated with an increased risk for developing colorectal cancer [adjusted hazard ratio for AG relative to AA, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.74; P = 0.008; hazard ratio for TC relative to TT, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.22; P = 0.02]. Because homozygous variants for both CYP1A1 polymorphisms were rare, risk estimates were imprecise. None of the other gene polymorphisms examined were associated with an earlier onset age for colorectal cancer. Our results suggest that the I462V and Msp1 polymorphisms in CYP1A1 may be an additional susceptibility factor for disease expression in Lynch syndrome because they modify the age of colorectal cancer onset by up to 4 years.

Health-related quality of life and survival in liver transplant candidates.

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is an important measure of the effects of chronic liver disease in affected patients that helps guide interventions to improve well-being. However, the relationship between HRQOL and survival in liver transplant candidates remains unclear. We examined whether the Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores from the Short Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey were associated with survival in liver transplant candidates. We administered the SF-36 questionnaire (version 2.0) to patients in the Pulmonary Vascular Complications of Liver Disease study, a multicenter prospective cohort of patients evaluated for liver transplantation in 7 academic centers in the United States between 2003 and 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used with death as the primary outcome and adjustment for liver transplantation as a time-varying covariate. The mean age of the 252 participants was 54 +/- 10 years, 64% were male, and 94% were white. During the 422 person years of follow-up, 147 patients (58%) were listed, 75 patients (30%) underwent transplantation, 49 patients (19%) died, and 3 patients were lost to follow-up. Lower baseline PCS scores were associated with an increased mortality rate despite adjustments for age, gender, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and liver transplantation (P for the trend = 0.0001). The MCS score was not associated with mortality (P for the trend = 0.53). In conclusion, PCS significantly predicts survival in liver transplant candidates, and interventions directed toward improving the physical status may be helpful in improving outcomes in liver transplant candidates.

Modest Improvement in Overall Survival for Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

OBJECTIVES: Patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma often present with distant metastatic disease. We aimed to assess whether improvements in survival of clinical trials translated to a population-based level. METHODS: The US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry was queried. Adult patients with distant metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas were included from 1988 to 2008. Overall survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves as well as multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: In total, 32,452 patients were included. Mean age was 67.6 (SD: 11.7) years, and 15,341 (47.3%) were female. Median overall survival was 3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 3-3 months), which increased from 2 (CI, 2-2) months in 1988 to 3 (CI, 3-4) months in 2008. After adjustment for multiple covariates, the hazard ratio (HR) decreased by 0.977 per year (CI, 0.975-0.980). In multivariable-adjusted survival analyses, tumor location in the pancreatic body/tail (HR, 1.10), male sex (HR, 1.09), increasing age (HR, 1.016), African American ethnicity (HR, 1.16), nonmarried civil status (HR, 1.18), and absence of radiotherapy (HR, 1.41) were associated with worse survival (P < 0.001 for all predictors). CONCLUSIONS: The improvement in overall survival over the past 2 decades among patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma is modest and disappointing. More effective therapeutic strategies for advanced disease are desperately needed.

Heart rate is a prognostic risk factor for myocardial infarction: a post hoc analysis in the PERFORM (Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic attack) study population

BACKGROUND Elevated resting heart rate is known to be detrimental to morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular disease, though its effect in patients with ischemic stroke is unclear. We analyzed the effect of baseline resting heart rate on myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with a recent noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event participating in PERFORM. METHODS We compared fatal or nonfatal MI using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models for PERFORM patients with baseline heart rate <70 bpm (n=8178) or ≥70 bpm (n=10,802). In addition, heart rate was analyzed as a continuous variable. Other cerebrovascular and cardiovascular outcomes were also explored. RESULTS Heart rate ≥70 bpm was associated with increased relative risk for fatal or nonfatal MI (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.03-1.69, P=0.029). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there was an increase in relative risk for fatal and nonfatal MI (11.3%, P=0.0002). Heart rate ≥70 bpm was also associated with increased relative risk for a composite of fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death) (P<0001); vascular death (P<0001); all-cause mortality (P<0001); and fatal or nonfatal stroke (P=0.04). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there were increases in relative risk for fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (4.7%, P<0.0001), vascular death (11.0%, P<0.0001), all-cause mortality (8.0%, P<0.0001), and fatal and nonfatal stroke (2.4%, P=0.057). CONCLUSION Elevated heart rate ≥70 bpm places patients with a noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event at increased risk for MI.

Definitive intensity modulated radiotherapy in locally advanced hypopharygeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma: mature treatment results and patterns of locoregional failure.

PurposeTo assess clinical outcomes and patterns of loco-regional failure (LRF) in relation to clinical target volumes (CTV) in patients with locally advanced hypopharyngeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HL-SCC) treated with definitive intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and concurrent systemic therapy.MethodsData from HL-SCC patients treated from 2007 to 2010 were retrospectively evaluated. Primary endpoint was loco-regional control (LRC). Secondary endpoints included local (LC) and regional (RC) controls, distant metastasis free survival (DMFS), laryngectomy free survival (LFS), overall survival (OS), and acute and late toxicities. Time-to-event endpoints were estimated using Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards models. Recurrent gross tumor volume (RTV) on post-treatment diagnostic imaging was analyzed in relation to corresponding CTV (in-volume, > 95% of RTV inside CTV; marginal, 20¿95% inside CTV; out-volume, < 20% inside CTV).ResultsFifty patients (stage III: 14, IVa: 33, IVb: 3) completed treatment and were included in the analysis (median follow-up of 4.2 years). Three-year LRC, DMFS and overall survival (OS) were 77%, 96% and 63%, respectively. Grade 2 and 3 acute toxicity were 38% and 62%, respectively; grade 2 and 3 late toxicity were 23% and 15%, respectively. We identified 10 patients with LRF (8 local, 1 regional, 1 local¿+¿regional). Six out of 10 RTVs were fully included in both elective and high-dose CTVs, and 4 RTVs were marginal to the high-dose CTVs.ConclusionThe treatment of locally advanced HL-SCC with definitive IMRT and concurrent systemic therapy provides good LRC rates with acceptable toxicity profile. Nevertheless, the analysis of LRFs in relation to CTVs showed in-volume relapses to be the major mode of recurrence indicating that novel strategies to overcome radioresistance are required.

Cardiopulmonary Bypass has No Significant Impact on Survival in Patients Undergoing Nephrectomy and Level III-IV Inferior Vena Cava Thrombectomy. A Multi-Institutional Analysis.

PURPOSE The impact of cardiopulmonary bypass in level III-IV tumor thrombectomy on surgical and oncologic outcomes is unknown. We determine the impact of cardiopulmonary bypass on overall and cancer specific survival, as well as surgical complication rates and immediate outcomes in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III-IV tumor thrombectomy with or without cardiopulmonary bypass. MATERIALS AND METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 362 patients with renal cell cancer and with level III or IV tumor thrombus from 1992 to 2012 at 22 U.S. and European centers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall and cancer specific survival between patients with and without cardiopulmonary bypass. Perioperative mortality and complication rates were assessed using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS Median overall survival was 24.6 months in noncardiopulmonary bypass cases and 26.6 months in cardiopulmonary bypass cases. Overall survival and cancer specific survival did not differ significantly in both groups on univariate analysis or when adjusting for known risk factors. On multivariate analysis no significant differences were seen in hospital length of stay, Clavien 1-4 complication rate, intraoperative or 30-day mortality and cancer specific survival. Limitations include the retrospective nature of the study. CONCLUSIONS In our multi-institutional analysis the use of cardiopulmonary bypass did not significantly impact cancer specific survival or overall survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III or IV tumor thrombectomy. Neither approach was independently associated with increased mortality on multivariate analysis. Greater surgical complications were not independently associated with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass.

The J-curve in HIV: low and moderate alcohol intake predicts mortality but not the occurrence of major cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVES In HIV-negative populations light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality than alcohol abstention. Whether the same holds true for HIV-infected individuals has not been evaluated in detail. DESIGN Cohort study METHODS:: Adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with follow-up after August 2005 were included. We categorized alcohol consumption into: abstention, low (1-9 g/d), moderate (10-29 g/d in females and 10-39g/d in men) and high alcohol intake. Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease free survival (combined endpoint) as well as cardiovascular disease events (CADE) and overall survival. Baseline and time-updated risk factors for CADE were included in the models. RESULTS Among 9,741 individuals included, there were 788 events of major CADE or death during 46,719 years of follow-up, corresponding to an incidence of 1.69 events/100 person-years. Follow-up according to alcohol consumption level was 51% abstention, 20% low, 23% moderate and 6% high intake. As compared to abstention, low (hazard ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.98) and moderate alcohol intake (0.78, 0.64-0.95) were associated with a lower incidence of the combined endpoint. There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and CADE. CONCLUSIONS Compared to abstention, low and moderate alcohol intake were associated with a better CADE-free survival. However, this result was mainly driven by mortality and the specific impact of drinking patterns and type of alcoholic beverage on this outcome remains to be determined.

Childhood cancer and residential exposure to highways: a nationwide cohort study.

Children living near highways are exposed to higher concentrations of traffic-related carcinogenic pollutants. Several studies reported an increased risk of childhood cancer associated with traffic exposure, but the published evidence is inconclusive. We investigated whether cancer risk is associated with proximity of residence to highways in a nation-wide cohort study including all children aged <16 years from Swiss national censuses in 1990 and 2000. Cancer incidence was investigated in time to event analyses (1990-2008) using Cox proportional hazards models and incidence density analyses (1985-2008) using Poisson regression. Adjustments were made for socio-economic factors, ionising background radiation and electromagnetic fields. In time to event analysis based on 532 cases the adjusted hazard ratio for leukaemia comparing children living <100 m from a highway with unexposed children (≥500 m) was 1.43 (95 % CI 0.79, 2.61). Results were similar in incidence density analysis including 1367 leukaemia cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.57; 95 % CI 1.09, 2.25). Associations were similar for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (IRR 1.64; 95 % CI 1.10, 2.43) and stronger for leukaemia in children aged <5 years (IRR 1.92; 95 % CI 1.22, 3.04). Little evidence of association was found for other tumours. Our study suggests that young children living close to highways are at increased risk of developing leukaemia.

Associations of obesity and body fat distribution with incident atrial fibrillation in the biracial health aging and body composition cohort of older adults

UNLABELLED Obesity is a well-recognized risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), yet adiposity measures other than body mass index (BMI) have had limited assessment in relation to AF risk. We examined the associations of adiposity measures with AF in a biracial cohort of older adults. Given established racial differences in obesity and AF, we assessed for differences by black and white race in relating adiposity and AF. METHODS We analyzed data from 2,717 participants of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Adiposity measures were BMI, abdominal circumference, subcutaneous and visceral fat area, and total and percent fat mass. We determined the associations between the adiposity measures and 10-year incidence of AF using Cox proportional hazards models and assessed for their racial differences in these estimates. RESULTS In multivariable-adjusted models, 1-SD increases in BMI, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass were associated with a 13% to 16% increased AF risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28; HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04-1.28; and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.002-1.27). Subcutaneous and visceral fat areas were not significantly associated with incident AF. We did not identify racial differences in the associations between the adiposity measures and AF. CONCLUSION Body mass index, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass are associated with risk of AF for 10years among white and black older adults. Obesity is one of a limited number of modifiable risk factors for AF; future studies are essential to evaluate how obesity reduction can modify the incidence of AF.