Skilloscopy: Bayesian modeling of decision makers' skill

This paper proposes and demonstrates an approach, Skilloscopy, to the assessment of decision makers. In an increasingly sophisticated, connected and information-rich world, decision making is becoming both more important and more difficult. At the same time, modelling decision-making on computers is becoming more feasible and of interest, partly because the information-input to those decisions is increasingly on record. The aims of Skilloscopy are to rate and rank decision makers in a domain relative to each other: the aims do not include an analysis of why a decision is wrong or suboptimal, nor the modelling of the underlying cognitive process of making the decisions. In the proposed method a decision-maker is characterised by a probability distribution of their competence in choosing among quantifiable alternatives. This probability distribution is derived by classic Bayesian inference from a combination of prior belief and the evidence of the decisions. Thus, decision-makers’ skills may be better compared, rated and ranked. The proposed method is applied and evaluated in the gamedomain of Chess. A large set of games by players across a broad range of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) Elo ratings has been used to infer the distribution of players’ rating directly from the moves they play rather than from game outcomes. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the Chess community regarding the stability of the Elo rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The method of Skilloscopy may be applied in any decision domain where the value of the decision-options can be quantified.

Improvement of Routine Test Process of High Voltage Power Capacitors

The capacitor test process at ABB Capacitors in Ludvika must be improved to meet future demands for high voltage products. To find a solution to how to improve the test process, an investigation was performed to establish which parts of the process are used and how they operate. Several parts which can improves the process were identified. One of them was selected to be improved in correlation with the subject, mechanical engineering. Four concepts were generated and decision matrixes were used to systematically select the best concept. By improving the process several benefits has been added to the process. More units are able to be tested and lead time is reduced. As the lead time is reduced the cost for each unit is reduced, workers will work less hours for the same amount of tested units, future work to further improve the process is also identified. The selected concept was concept 1, the sway stop concept. This concept is used to reduce the sway of the capacitors as they have entered the test facility, the box. By improving this part of the test process a time saving of 20 seconds per unit can be achieved, equivalent to 7% time reduction. This can be compared to an additional 1400 units each year.

The use of contracting out : a case study of decision-making and organisational learning in local government

One objective of government is to provide services at least cost whilst maintaining or improving service quality. While this may be an important objective, questions are being asked whether services can be provided more efficiently and effectively by the private rather than by the government sector. The shift of service provision from the public to the private sector is known as outsourcing or contracting out. The objective in this study is to critically examine whether the contracting out of services by local government to the private sector is an efficient management practice.

The contracting out of Parks and Grounds Maintenance services for the City of Kingston in the State of Victoria, Australia, is used as an exploratory case study to identify the variables associated with management decision-making in the contracting out process. Factors relevant to the contracting out decision such as the criteria used in selecting a contractor; the evaluation of a contractor’s performance; and any subsequent changes to management practice relating to the contracting out of the services are identified and discussed.

Political forces were found to be an important consideration in the initial contracting out decision, and the selection of a contractor was influenced by the potential to avoid costs. It was also found that under-bidding and associated cost /profit constraints lead to contractors engaging in non-sustainable environmental practices which resulted in the degradation of the local government’s Parks and Gardens assets. A sustainable asset management philosophy as opposed to an avoidable costs approach now underpins the contracting out process to ensure the preservation of such assets. Further, administrative processes have been revised to make tender specifications more prescriptive, critical components of services have been brought back in-house, and management practices have been amended so that a greater degree of control is exercised over contractors’ activities.

Corporate social responsibility in professional team sport organisations : towards a theory of decision-making

Research question: 

Central Europe in the Process of European Integration. A Comparative Study of the Strategies of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia towards the Deepening and Widening of the European Union

Membership of the European Union U is usually seen as a strategic goal of the associated states of central and eastern Europe. At the beginning of the 1990s central European countries, where the economic and political transformation was relatively advanced, received preferential treatment from the European Community, which was starting to evolve a policy of differentiation. Podraza studied the strategies of four central European countries towards changes under way in the European Union, analysing several aspects for each case: (1) the process of political transformation (2) decision-making structures in the field of foreign policy and European integration (3) integration strategies: (a) main foreign policy priorities (b) application for membership of the European Union (c) the Commission option on each country (d) accession partnership, including a National Programme for the Adoption of the Acquis (NPAA) (e) regular Commission reports (f) accession negotiations

Tracking the subprocesses of decision-based action in the human frontal lobes

Situationally adaptive behavior relies on the identification of relevant target stimuli, the evaluation of these with respect to the current context and the selection of an appropriate action. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to disentangle the neural networks underlying these processes within a single task. Our results show that activation of mid-ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) reflects the perceived presence of a target stimulus regardless of context, whereas context-appropriate evaluation is subserved by mid-dorsolateral PFC. Enhancing demands on response selection by means of response conflict activated a network of regions, all of which are directly connected to motor areas. On the midline, rostral anterior paracingulate cortex was found to link target detection and response selection by monitoring for the presence of behaviorally significant conditions. In summary, we provide new evidence for process-specific functional dissociations in the frontal lobes. In target-centered processing, target detection in the VLPFC is separable from contextual evaluation in the DLPFC. Response-centered processing in motor-associated regions occurs partly in parallel to these processes, which may enhance behavioral efficiency, but it may also lead to reaction time increases when an irrelevant response tendency is elicited.

How do sport clubs recruit volunteers? Analyzing and developing a typology of decision-making processes on recruiting volunteers in sport clubs.

Effective strategies for recruiting volunteers who are prepared to make a long-term commitment to formal positions are essential for the survival of voluntary sport clubs. This article examines the decision-making processes in relation to these efforts. Under the assumption of bounded rationality, the garbage can model is used to grasp these decision-making processes theoretically and access them empirically. Based on case study framework an in-depth analysis of recruitment practices was conducted in nine selected sport clubs. Results showed that the decision-making processes are generally characterized by a reactive approach in which dominant actors try to handle personnel problems of recruitment in the administration and sport domains through routine formal committee work and informal networks. In addition, it proved possible to develop a typology that deliver an overview of different decision-making practices in terms of the specific interplay of the relevant components of process control (top-down vs. bottom-up) and problem processing (situational vs. systematic).

An analysis of the revenue policy -making process of the Texas Legislature

The purpose of this dissertation was to develop a conceptual framework which can be used to account for policy decisions made by the House Ways and Means Committee (HW&MC) of the Texas House of Representatives. This analysis will examine the actions of the committee over a ten-year period with the goal of explaining and predicting the success of failure of certain efforts to raise revenue.^ The basis framework for modelling the revenue decision-making process includes three major components--the decision alternatives, the external factors and two competing contingency theories. The decision alternatives encompass the particular options available to increase tax revenue. The options were classified as non-innovative or innovative. The non-innovative options included the sales, franchise, property and severance taxes. The innovative options were principally the personal and corporate income taxes.^ The external factors included political and economic constraints that affected the actions of the HW&MC. Several key political constraints on committee decision-making were addressed--including public attitudes, interest groups, political party strength and tradition and precedents. The economic constraints that affected revenue decisions included court mandates, federal mandates and the fiscal condition of the nation and the state.^ The third component of the revenue decision-making framework included two alternative contingency theories. The first alternative theory postulated that the committee structure, including the individual member roles and the overall committee style, resulted in distinctive revenue decisions. This theory will be favored if evidence points to the committee acting autonomously with less concern for the policies of the Speaker of the House. The Speaker assignment theory, postulated that the assignment of committee members shaped or changed the course of committee decision-making. This theory will be favored if there was evidence that the committee was strictly a vehicle for the Speaker to institute his preferred tax policies.^ The ultimate goal of this analysis is to develop an explanation for legislative decision-making about tax policy. This explanation will be based on the linkages across various tax options, political and economic constraints, member roles and committee style and the patterns of committee assignment. ^

Application of Decision Theory methods for a Community of Madrid Soil classification case

A land classification method was designed for the Community of Madrid (CM), which has lands suitable for either agriculture use or natural spaces. The process started from an extensive previous CM study that contains sets of land attributes with data for 122 types and a minimum-requirements method providing a land quality classification (SQ) for each land. Borrowing some tools from Operations Research (OR) and from Decision Science, that SQ has been complemented by an additive valuation method that involves a more restricted set of 13 representative attributes analysed using Attribute Valuation Functions to obtain a quality index, QI, and by an original composite method that uses a fuzzy set procedure to obtain a combined quality index, CQI, that contains relevant information from both the SQ and the QI methods.

Self perception of decision making competence in spanish football players

Background: It is known that competence to make decisions is a fundamental aspect of sport competition. Objective: This study has analyzed the decision profile of a sample of Spanish football players of different levels of expertise. Methods: 690 Spanish football players of national and international level completed the decision making questionnaire, which cover three dimensions ? perceived decision competence, decision anxiety and commitment with decision learning. MANCOVA and ANOVA analysis were carried out to analyse the differences in each dimension based on the level of expertise. Results: Results showed that perception of decision making competence increased and the anxiety decreased with the level of expertise. Conclusions: This study confirmed the usefulness of this questionnaire in the process of training for coaches and sport psychologists.

Self-perceptions of decision making competence in Spanish football players

Background: It is known that competence to make decisions is a fundamental aspect of sport competition. Objective: This study has analyzed the decision profile of a sample of Spanish football players of different levels of expertise. Methods: 690 Spanish football players of national and international level completed the decision mak- ing questionnaire, which cover three dimensions ? perceived decision competence, decision anxiety and commit- ment with decision learning. MANCOVA and ANOVA analysis were carried out to analyse the differences in each dimension based on the level of expertise. Results: Results showed that perception of decision making competence increased and the anxiety decreased with the level of expertise. Conclusions: This study confirmed the usefulness of this questionnaire in the process of training for coaches and sport psychologists.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

A longitudinal study of Chinese managerial behaviour:an inside view of decision-making under the economic reform

This research compared decision making processes in six Chinese state-owned enterprises during the period 1985 to 1988. The research objectives were: a) To examine changes in the managerial behaviour over a period of 1985 to 1988 with a focus on decision-making; b) Through this examination, to throw light on the means by which government policies on economic reform were implemented at the enterprise level; c) To illustrate problems encountered in the decentralization programme which was a major part of China's economic reform. The research was conducted by means of intensive interviews with more than eighty managers and a survey of documents relating to specific decisions. A total of sixty cases of decision-making were selected from five decision topics: purchasing of inputs, pricing of outputs, recruitment of labour, organizational change and innovation, which occurred in 1985 (or before) and in 1988/89. Data from the interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, relations between the enterprise and its higher authority, interactions between management and the party system, the role of information, and effectiveness of regulations and government policies on enterprise management. The analysis of the data indicates that the decision processes in the different enterprises have some similarities in regard to actor involvement, the flow of decision activities, interactions with the authorities, information usage and the effect of regulations. Comparison of the same or similar decision contents over time indicates that the achievement of decentralization varied according to the topic of decision. Managerial authority was delegated to enterprises when the authorities relaxed their control over resource allocation. When acquisition of necessary resources is dependent upon the planning system or the decision matter is sensitive, because it involves change to the institutional framework (e.g. the Party), then a high degree of centralization was retained, resulting in a marginal change in managerial behaviour. The economic reform failed to increase decision efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making. The prevailing institutional frameworks were regarded as negative to the change. The research argues that the decision process is likely to be more contingent on the decision content than the organization. Three types of decision process have been conceptualized, each of them related to a certain type of decision content. This argument gives attention to the perspectives of institution and power in a way which facilitates an elaboration of organizational analysis. The problems encountered in the reform of China's industrial enterprises are identified and discussed. General recommendations for policies of further reform are offered, based on the analysis of decision process and managerial behaviour.

The process of strategic change:a management perspective

This thesis is concerned with the management processes concerned with complex strategic decision in organisations. The research has sought to explore these processes by taking as its focus the reconstruction of decision processes a) on the basis of an historical study of an industry and in particular a major company in that industry; and b) the perception and understanding of strategic decision processes and change by managers involved in companies in that industry. The main body of analysis and theoretical contributions arise from the detailed analysis of extended depth interviews with managers carried out in 1980 and 1983 which trace thirteen years of the strategic development of a firm. In so doing, extensive use is made of verbatim accounts by managers of events and their interpretation of events. This is then compared with data gathered from.similar interviews with managers of two other companies and examined in the light of existing research and theory in the field. The thesis both provides a detailed insight into the processes associated with the identification and resolution of complex strategic issues and also generates a body of theory concerning the mechanisms by which strategic decisions and the processes of strategic change are interwoven with the cultural and political fabric of organisations. The thesis is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the background to the research, provid1ng a fuller summary of the purpose, structure and content of the thesis and a discussion of relevant previous research and the methodology employed herein. The second part mainly provides case studies of the industry and the main company studied. The third part is a detailed presentation and analysis of data. The fourth part is a synthesis of the findings and consolidation of the theoretical interpretation advanced in the thesis.

Extreme events, organizations and the politics of decision making

Purpose – Threats of extreme events, such as terrorist attacks or infrastructure breakdown, are potentially highly disruptive events for all types of organizations. This paper seeks to take a political perspective to power in strategic decision making and how this influences planning for extreme events. Design/methodology/approach – A sample of 160 informants drawn from 135 organizations, which are part of the critical national infrastructure in the UK, forms the empirical basis of the paper. Most of these organizations had publicly placed business continuity and preparedness as a strategic priority. The paper adopts a qualitative approach, coding data from focus groups. Findings – In nearly all cases there is a pre-existing dominant coalition which keeps business continuity decisions off the strategic agenda. The only exceptions to this are a handful of organizations which provide continuous production, such as some utilities, where disruption to business as usual can be readily quantified. The data reveal structural and decisional elements of the exercise of power. Structurally, the dominant coalition centralizes control by ensuring that only a few functional interests participate in decision making. Research limitations/implications – Decisional elements of power emphasize the dominance of calculative rationality where decisions are primarily made on information and arguments which can be quantified. Finally, the paper notes the recursive aspect of power relations whereby agency and structure are mutually constitutive over time. Organizational structures of control are maintained, despite the involvement of managers charged with organizational preparedness and resilience, who remain outside the dominant coalition. Originality/value – The paper constitutes a first attempt to show how planning for emergencies fits within the strategy-making process and how politically controlled this process is.