Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

The implementation of performance based planning in Queensland under the integrated planning act 1997 : an evaluation of perceptions and planning schemes

Performance based planning is a form of planning regulation that is not well understood and the theoretical advantages of this type of planning are rarely achieved in practice. Normatively, this type of regulation relies on performance standards that are quantifiable and technically based which are designed to manage the effects of development, where performance standards provide certainty in respect of the level of performance and the means of achievement is flexible. Few empirical studies have attempted to examine how performance based planning has been conceptualised and implemented in practice. Existing literature is predominately anecdotal and consultant based (Baker et al. 2006) and has not sought to quantitatively examine how land use has been managed or determine how context influences implementation. The Integrated Planning Act 1997 (IPA) operated as Queensland’s principal planning legislation between March 1998 and December 2009. The IPA prevented Local Governments from prohibiting development or use and the term zone was absent from the legislation. While the IPA did not use the term performance based planning, the system is widely considered to be performance based in practice (e.g. Baker et al. 2006; Steele 2009a, 2009b). However, the degree to which the IPA and the planning system in Queensland is performance based is debated (e.g. Yearbury 1998; England 2004). Four research questions guided the research framework using Queensland as the case study. The questions sought to: determine if there is a common understanding of performance based planning; identify how performance based planning was expressed under the IPA; understand how performance based planning was implemented in plans; and explore the experiences of participants in the planning system. The research developed a performance adoption spectrum. The spectrum describes how performance based planning is implemented, ranging between pure and hybrid interpretations. An ex-post evaluation of seventeen IPA plans sought to determine plan performativity within the conceptual spectrum. Land use was examined from the procedural dimension of performance (Assessment Tables) and the substantive dimension of performance (Codes). A documentary analysis and forty one interviews supplemented the research. The analytical framework considered how context influenced performance based planning, including whether: the location of the local government affected land use management techniques; temporal variation in implementation exists; plan-making guidelines affected implementation; different perceptions of the concept exist; this type of planning applies to a range of spatial scales. Outcomes were viewed as the medium for determining the acceptability of development in Queensland, a significant departure from pure approaches found in the United States. Interviews highlighted the absence of plan-making direction in the IPA, which contributed to the confusion about the intended direction of the planning system and the myth that the IPA would guarantee a performance based system. A hybridised form of performance based planning evolved in Queensland which was dependent on prescriptive land use zones and specification of land use type, with some local governments going to extreme lengths to discourage certain activities in a predetermined manner. Context had varying degrees of influence on plan-making methods. Decision-making was found to be inconsistent and the system created a range of unforeseen consequences including difficulties associated with land valuation, increased development speculation, and the role of planners in court was found to be less critical than in the previous planning system.

Performance based planning in Queensland : A case of unintended plan-making outcomes

Performance based planning (PBP) is purported to be a viable alternative to traditional zoning. The implementation of PBP ranges between pure approaches that rely on predetermined quantifiable performance standards to determine land use suitability, and hybrid approaches that rely on a mix of activity based zones in addition to prescriptive and subjective standards. Jurisdictions in the USA, Australia and New Zealand have attempted this type of land use regulation with varying degrees of success. Despite the adoption of PBP legislation in these jurisdictions, this paper argues that a lack of extensive evaluation means that PBP is not well understood and the purported advantages of this type of planning are rarely achieved in practice. Few empirical studies have attempted to examine how PBP has been implemented in practice. In Queensland, Australia, the Integrated Planning Act 1997 (IPA) operated as Queensland's principal planning legislation between March 1998 and December 2009. While the IPA did not explicitly use the term performance based planning, the Queensland's planning system is widely considered to be performance based in practice. Significantly, the IPA prevented Local Government from prohibiting development or use and the term zone was absent from the legislation. How plan-making would be advanced under the new planning regime was not clear, and as a consequence local governments produced a variety of different plan-making approaches to comply with the new legislative regime. In order to analyse this variation the research has developed a performance adoption spectrum to classify plans ranging between pure and hybrid perspectives of PBP. The spectrum compares how land use was regulated in seventeen IPA plans across Queensland. The research found that hybrid plans predominated, and that over time a greater reliance on risk adverse drafting approaches created a quasi-prohibition plan, the exact opposite of what was intended by the IPA. This paper concludes that the drafting of the IPA and absence of plan-making guidance contributed to lack of shared understanding about the intended direction of the new planning system and resulted in many administrative interpretations of the legislation. It was a planning direction that tried too hard to be different, and as a result created a perception of land use risk and uncertainty that caused a return to more prescriptive and inflexible plan-making methods.

Information-based regulation of high-velocity foot-targeting tasks

Judging time-to-contact with a target is an important criterion for avoiding harm in everyday walking and running tasks, and maximizing performance in high-velocity sporting tasks. The information-based regulation of step length and duration during target-directed locomotion was examined in relation to gait mode, approach velocity, target task, expertise, and sporting performance during a series of four experiments. The first three experiments examined novice performers (Each n=12, 6 males, 6 females), whilst the last experiment examined expert gymnasts (n=5). Two reference strips with alternating 50cm black and white intervals were placed on either side of the approach strip for all of the experiments. One 50Hz-panning video camera filmed the approach from an elevated position. In Experiment 4, two stationary 250Hz cameras filmed the post-flight performance of the gymnastic vaults and, in addition, two qualified judges provided a performance score for each vaulting trial. The panning video footage in each experiment was digitized to deduce the gait characteristics. In Experiment 4, the high-speed video footage was analyzed three-dimensionally to obtain the performance measures such as post-flight height. The utilization of visual stimulus in target-directed locomotion is affected by the observer's state of motion as characterized by the mode of locomotion and also often the speed of locomotion. In addition, experience plays an important role in the capacity of the observer to utilize visual stimulus to control the muscular action of locomotion when either maintaining or adjusting the step mechanics. The characteristics of the terrain and the target also affect the observer's movement. Visual regulation of step length decreases at higher approach speeds in novice performers, where as expert performers are capable of increasing visual regulation at higher approach speeds. Conservatism in final foot placement by female participants accounts for the observed increase in distance from the critical boundary of the obstacle relative to toe placement. Behavioural effects of gender thus affect the control of final foot placement in obstacle-directed locomotion. The visual control of braking in target-directed locomotion is described by a tau-dot of-0.54. When tau-dot is below -0.54 a hard collision with the obstacle will occur, however, when tau-dot is above -0.54, a soft collision with the target will occur. It is suggested that the tau-dot margin defining the control of braking reveals the braking capacity of the system. In the target-directed locomotion examined a tau-dot greater than -0.70 would possibly exceed the braking capacity of the system, thus, leading to injury if performed. The approach towards the take-off board and vaulting horse in gymnastics is an example of target-directed locomotion in sport. Increased visual regulation of the timing and length of each step is a requirement for a fast running approach, a fundamental building block for the execution of complex vaults in gymnastics. The successful performance of complex vaults in gymnastics leads towards a higher judge's score. Future research suggestions include an investigation of visual regulation of step length in curved target-directed locomotion.

Performance-based structural fire design of steel frames using conventional computer software

Fire incident in buildings is common, so the fire safety design of the framed structure is imperative, especially for the unprotected or partly protected bare steel frames. However, software for structural fire analysis is not widely available. As a result, the performance-based structural fire design is urged on the basis of using user-friendly and conventional nonlinear computer analysis programs so that engineers do not need to acquire new structural analysis software for structural fire analysis and design. The tool is desired to have the capacity of simulating the different fire scenarios and associated detrimental effects efficiently, which includes second-order P-D and P-d effects and material yielding. Also the nonlinear behaviour of large-scale structure becomes complicated when under fire, and thus its simulation relies on an efficient and effective numerical analysis to cope with intricate nonlinear effects due to fire. To this end, the present fire study utilizes a second order elastic/plastic analysis software NIDA to predict structural behaviour of bare steel framed structures at elevated temperatures. This fire study considers thermal expansion and material degradation due to heating. Degradation of material strength with increasing temperature is included by a set of temperature-stress-strain curves according to BS5950 Part 8 mainly, which implicitly allows for creep deformation. This finite element stiffness formulation of beam-column elements is derived from the fifth-order PEP element which facilitates the computer modeling by one member per element. The Newton-Raphson method is used in the nonlinear solution procedure in order to trace the nonlinear equilibrium path at specified elevated temperatures. Several numerical and experimental verifications of framed structures are presented and compared against solutions in literature. The proposed method permits engineers to adopt the performance-based structural fire analysis and design using typical second-order nonlinear structural analysis software.

Using performance-based evaluation to close the loop between biological and robotic navigation

In this paper we describe the benefits of a performance-based approach to modeling biological systems for use in robotics. Specifically, we describe the RatSLAM system, a computational model of the navigation processes thought to drive navigation in a part of the rodent brain called the hippocampus. Unlike typical computational modeling approaches, which focus on biological fidelity, RatSLAM’s development cycle has been driven primarily by performance evaluation on robots navigating in a wide variety of challenging, real world environments. We briefly describe three seminal results, two in robotics and one in biology. In addition, we present current research on brain-inspired learning algorithms with the aim of enabling a robot to autonomously learn how best to use its sensor suite to navigate, without requiring any specific knowledge of the robot, sensor types or environment characteristics. Our aim is to drive discussion on the merits of practical, performance-focused implementations of biological models in robotics.

Performance-based structural fire design and testing of structures

Fire incident in buildings is common in Hong Kong and this could lead to heavy casualties due to its high population density, so the fire safety design of the framed structure is an important research topic. This paper describes a computer tool for determination of capacity of structural safety against various fire scenarios and the well-accepted second-order direct plastic analysis is adopted for simulation of material yielding and buckling. A computer method is developed to predict structural behaviour of bare steel framed structures at elevated temperatures but the work can be applied to structures made of other materials. These effects of thermal expansion and material degradation due to heating are required to be considered in order to capture the actual behavior of the structure under fire. Degradation of material strength with increasing temperature is included by a set of temperature-stress-strain curves according to BS5950 Part 8 mainly, which implicitly allows for creep deformation. Several numerical and experimental verifications of framed structures are presented and compared against solutions by other researchers. The proposed method allows us to adopt the truly performance-based structural fire analysis and design with significant saving in cost and time.

Performance-Based Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) Acceptance Procedures for In-Place Soil Testing Phase 3

One of the objectives of this study was to evaluate soil testing equipment based on its capability of measuring in-place stiffness or modulus values. As design criteria transition from empirical to mechanistic-empirical, soil test methods and equipment that measure properties such as stiffness and modulus and how they relate to Florida materials are needed. Requirements for the selected equipment are that they be portable, cost effective, reliable, a ccurate, and repeatable. A second objective is that the selected equipment measures soil properties without the use of nuclear materials.The current device used to measure soil compaction is the nuclear density gauge (NDG). Equipment evaluated in this research included lightweight deflectometers (LWD) from different manufacturers, a dynamic cone penetrometer (DCP), a GeoGauge, a Clegg impact soil tester (CIST), a Briaud compaction device (BCD), and a seismic pavement analyzer (SPA). Evaluations were conducted over ranges of measured densities and moistures.Testing (Phases I and II) was conducted in a test box and test pits. Phase III testing was conducted on materials found on five construction projects located in the Jacksonville, Florida, area. Phase I analyses determined that the GeoGauge had the lowest overall coefficient of variance (COV). In ascending order of COV were the accelerometer-type LWD, the geophone-type LWD, the DCP, the BCD, and the SPA which had the highest overall COV. As a result, the BCD and the SPA were excluded from Phase II testing.In Phase II, measurements obtained from the selected equipment were compared to the modulus values obtained by the static plate load test (PLT), the resilient modulus (MR) from laboratory testing, and the NDG measurements. To minimize soil and moisture content variability, the single spot testing sequence was developed. At each location, test results obtained from the portable equipment under evaluation were compared to the values from adjacent NDG, PLT, and laboratory MR measurements. Correlations were developed through statistical analysis. Target values were developed for various soils for verification on similar soils that were field tested in Phase III. The single spot testing sequence also was employed in Phase III, field testing performed on A-3 and A-2-4 embankments, limerock-stabilized subgrade, limerock base, and graded aggregate base found on Florida Department of Transportation construction projects. The Phase II and Phase III results provided potential trend information for future research—specifically, data collection for in-depth statistical analysis for correlations with the laboratory MR for specific soil types under specific moisture conditions. With the collection of enough data, stronger relationships could be expected between measurements from the portable equipment and the MR values. Based on the statistical analyses and the experience gained from extensive use of the equipment, the combination of the DCP and the LWD was selected for in-place soil testing for compaction control acceptance. Test methods and developmental specifications were written for the DCP and the LWD. The developmental specifications include target values for the compaction control of embankment, subgrade, and base materials.

Performance-based contracting for roads – Experiences of Australia and Indonesia

Many countries over the last decade, have used performance-based contracting (PBC) to manage and maintain roads. The implementation of PBC provides additional benefits for the government/public such as cost savings and improved conditions of contracted road assets. In Australia, PBC is already being implemented on all categories of roads: national, state, urban and rural. Australian PBC arrangement is designed to turn over control and responsibility for roadway system maintenance, rehabilitation, and capital improvement projects to private contractors. Contractors’ responsibilities include determination of treatment types, the design, programming and the undertaking of works needed to maintain road networks at predetermined performance levels. Indonesia initiated two PBC pilot projects in 2011, the Pantura Section Demak-Trengguli (7.68 kilometers) in Central Java Province and Section Ciasem-Pamanukan (18.5 kilometers) in West Java Province. Both sections are categorized as national roads. The contract duration for both of these projects is four years. To facilitate a possible way forward, it is proposed to conduct a study to understand Australia's experiences of advancing from pilot projects to nation-wide programs using PBC. The study focuses on the scope of contracts, bidding processes, risk allocation, and key drivers, using relevant PBC case studies from Australia. Recommendations for future PBC deployment nation-wide should be based on more research associated with risk allocation. This will include investigation of standard conditions of contract. Implications of the contract clauses for the risk management strategy to be adopted by contractors. Based on the nature of risks, some are best managed by the project owner. It is very important that all parties involved to be open to the new rules of contract and to convince themselves about the potential increased benefits of the use of PBC. The most recent states of challenging issues were explored and described.

A performance-based framework for assessing liquefaction potential based on CPT data

This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data.