The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Meta-level terrorism futures : constructing and deconstructing using causal layered analysis

Focused on the alternative futures of terrorism, this study engages with the different levels of terrorism knowledge to identify and challenge the restrictive narratives that define terrorism: that "society must be defended" from the "constant and evolving terrorist threat". Using Causal Layered Analysis to deconstruct and reconstruct strategies, alternative scenarios emerge. These alternative futures are depicted collectively as a maze, highlighting the prospect of navigating towards preferred and even shared terrorism futures, once these are supported by new and inclusive metaphors and stakeholder engagement.

Characteristics of nontuberculous mycobacteria from a municipal water distribution system and their relevance to human infections

This thesis documented pathogenic species of nontuberculous mycobacteria in the Brisbane water distribution system. When water and shower aerosol strains were compared with human strains of mycobacteria, the study found that the likelihood of acquiring infection from municipal water was specific for four main species. The method for isolation of mycobacteria from water was refined, followed by sampling from 220 sites across Brisbane. A variety of species (incl 15 pathogens) were identified and genotypically compared to human strains. For M. abscessus and M. lentiflavum, water strains clustered with human strains. Pathogenic strains of M. kansasii were found, though non-pathogenic strains dominated. Waterborne strains of M. fortuitum differed to human strains. Extensive home sampling of 20 patients with NTM disease, supported the theory that the risk of acquiring NTM from water or shower aerosols appears species specific for M. avium, M. kansasii, M. lentiflavum and M. abscessus.

Malnutrition in hospitalised patients and clinical outcomes : a missed opportunity?

This research programme has resulted in 5 published papers in international peer-reviewed journals and contributed to better outcomes for patients. It has provided clear evidence that the adverse outcomes of malnutrition are not just a consequence of the disease process, and lead to substantial increases in length of hospital stay, readmission rate, mortality and hospitalisation cost when compared with well-nourished patients of similar diagnoses and complexities. The research programme led to the development and validation of a new nutrition screening tool called 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS). It has also implemented quality improvement initiatives which proved successful in improving the compliance to 3-MinNS and ensuring referral of malnourished or 'at risk' patients to dietitians. Finally, this research programme has provided an effective method for following up malnourished patients post-discharge, which resulted in improved nutritional status and quality of life.

Knowledge transfer through dual degree programs : perspectives from Indonesian universities

The thesis provides an Indonesian perspective into the rationales and outcomes of cooperation between Indonesian and Australian universities. It demonstrates that Indonesian universities participating in this study have actively pursued their institutional agenda to bring benefits from the cooperation with the international partners and engaged in knowledge transfer with these partners to develop their capacity. It particularly investigates the knowledge transfer processes between Indonesian and Australian universities through dual degree program partnerships.

Self-management associated with fatigue in patients with advanced cancer : a prospective longitudinal study

Cancer-related fatigue is one of the most distressing symptoms experienced by patients with advanced cancer. This doctoral study identified that patients with advanced cancer commonly use a number of self-management strategies in response to fatigue, although these strategies had varying levels of effectiveness in reducing the symptom. The study identified that enhancing self-efficacy and managing depressive symptoms are important factors to consider in the design of future interventions to support fatigue self-management.

An investigation of the impacts of Excellence in Research for Australia : a case study on accounting for research

This is the first study to explore the way Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA), a research assessment exercise introduced in the Australian higher education sector in 2010, fostered the development of strategically oriented Management Accounting technologies in the form of Performance Management Systems (PMS) to achieve research excellence within an Australian university. It identifies ERA's intended and unintended consequences. While ERA enabled the creation of tighter controls in the PMS of faculties, departments and individual academics within the university, enhancing its reported research performance, the impact on academics was low job satisfaction, increased workload and a higher focus on research than teaching.

Semantic search as inference : applications in health informatics

This thesis developed new search engine models that elicit the meaning behind the words found in documents and queries, rather than simply matching keywords. These new models were applied to searching medical records: an area where search is particularly challenging yet can have significant benefits to our society.

Vertical displacement measurement using fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensors for structural health monitoring of bridges

This thesis developed a practical, cost effective, easy-to-use method for measuring the vertical displacements of bridges using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors, which includes the curvature and inclination approaches. These approaches were validated by the numerical simulation tests on a full scale bridge and the laboratory-based tests. In doing so, a novel frictionless FBG inclination sensor with extremely high sensitivity and resolution has also been developed and validated.

Hybrid polymer/metal nanoparticles with surface enhanced raman tracking for potential use in nanomedicine

This project was a preliminary step towards the development of novel methods for early stage cancer diagnosis and treatment. Diagnostic imaging agents with high Raman signal enhancement were developed based on tailored assemblies of gold nanoparticles, which demonstrated potential for non-invasive detection from deep under the skin surface. Specifically designed polymers were employed to assemble gold nanoparticles into controlled morphologies including dimers, nanochains, nanoplates, globular and core-satellite nanostructures. Our findings suggest that the Raman enhancement is strongly dependent on assembly morphology and can be tuned to adapt to the requirements of the diagnostic agent.

The knowing client : a processual perspective on knowledge shaping in consulting engagements

This thesis extends current understanding in management consulting research by investigating the ways in which management consultants and their clients shaped knowing over the course of nine different consulting engagements. The research illuminates the client experience of using consulting knowledge in organisations, and proposes a theoretical reconceptualisation of knowledge shaping in consulting engagements which incorporates how the knowing client is enacted. The research shows that knowledge shaping activities are planned and enacted to support novelty reduction in consulting engagements; that asymmetries in the structuring of the consultant–client relationship hamper knowledge transformation and the establishment of knowing; and that understanding of how the role identities of consultants and clients are established and maintained over the course of an engagement is integral to understanding knowledge shaping in consulting engagements.

Numerical investigation of graphene and graphene-polymer nanocomposites

This thesis is a comprehensive and deep investigation on graphene and graphene-polymer nanocomposites. It explores the strong structure-property relationships in both graphene and graphene-based polymeric nanocomposites. A number of significant conclusions, including failure mechanism in graphene, interfacial load transfer and thermal transport mechanisms in graphene-polymer nanocomposites, have been drawn through both atomistic simulations and theoretical analysis. These results can provide direct guidelines for development of new graphene-based materials and devices.

Numerical simulation of micro-scale morphological changes of plant food materials during drying - a meshfree approach

This thesis developed a high preforming alternative numerical technique to investigate microscale morphological changes of plant food materials during drying. The technique is based on a novel meshfree method, and is more capable of modeling large deformations of multiphase problem domains, when compared with conventional grid-based numerical modeling techniques. The developed cellular model can effectively replicate dried tissue morphological changes such as shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling, as influenced by moisture reduction and turgor loss.

eARTh : the dynamics of ontological representation

This Australian Indigenous creactive work and its Treatise promote ways of thinking about practice and research that extend well beyond the current discourse. It invites re-thinking on how research can be practice-led in new ways, and what that might mean for future students. When discussing the challenges of today, this work signifies how "Western Style" thinking and theory is wanting in so many ways. It engages a new dynamic and innovative way of theorising, encouraging future students to apply their full capacity of energy and wisdom. (Extract from examiners' reports.)

Numerical investigation of deformation and failure mechanisms of osteopontin-hydroxyapatite interfaces and mineralized collagen fibril arrays

This thesis is a comprehensive study of deformation and failure mechanisms in bone at nano- and micro-scale levels. It explores the mechanical behaviour of osteopontin-hydroxyapatite interfaces and mineralized collagen fibril arrays, through atomistic molecular dynamics and finite element simulations. This thesis shows some main factors contributing to the excellent material properties of bone and provides some guidelines for development of new artificial biological materials and medical implants.