Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Classification of Coastal Communities Reporting Commercial Fish Landings in the U.S. Northeast Region: Developing and Testing a Methodology

The National Marine Fisheries Service is required by law to conduct social impact assessments of communities impacted by fishery management plans. To facilitate this process, we developed a technique for grouping communities based on common sociocultural attributes. Multivariate data reduction techniques (e.g. principal component analyses, cluster analyses) were used to classify Northeast U.S. fishing communities based on census and fisheries data. The comparisons indicate that the clusters represent real groupings that can be verified with the profiles. We then selected communities representative of different values on these multivariate dimensions for in-depth analysis. The derived clusters are then compared based on more detailed data from fishing community profiles. Ground-truthing (e.g. visiting the communities and collecting primary information) a sample of communities from three clusters (two overlapping geographically) indicates that the more remote techniques are sufficient for typing the communities for further in-depth analyses. The in-depth analyses provide additional important information which we contend is representative of all communities within the cluster.

Abundance and seasonality of Diptera (Insecta) in a poultry house in the northeast region of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Modem production systems accommodate broody hens in high densities, leading to the accumulation of excrement under the cages. This substrate is excellent for the development of sinantropic flies. Thus, the accomplishment of surveys in these places becomes essential, in order to plan better strategies of control. The present work aimed at studying the entornofauna and the seasonality of the species of dipterous present in the Crisdan poultry house located in the Municipality of Sao Joao da Boa Vista, the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. In the period of January of 2001 to December of 2002, 1,012,595 flies were captured using the ""jug-trap"". The species were identified: Drosophi-la repleta (Wollaston, 1858), Musca domestica (Linnaeus, 1758), Ophyra spp., Hennetria illucens (Linnaeus, 1758), Fannia canicularis (Linnaeus, 1761), Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794), and Sepsidae. More frequently D. repleta and M. domestica had added 99.47% of the dipterous. Increased rainfall and the collection months influenced the sampling of dipterous (P < 0.05). Drosophila repleta was the most abundant species, representing 91% of all captured flies. However, this diptera did not develop at the surveyed site since immatures were not captured therein.

Incidence of Listeria monocytogenes in Cheese Manufacturing Plants from the Northeast Region of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The incidence of Listeria monocytogenes in three cheese manufacturing plants from the northeastern region of Sao Paulo, Brazil, was evaluated from October 2008 to September 2009. L. monocytogenes was found in samples from two plants, at percentages of 13.3% (n = 128) and 9.6% (n = 114). Samples of raw and pasteurized milk, water, and Minas Frescal cheese were negative for L. monocyto genes, although the pathogen was isolated from the surface of Prato cheese and in brine from one of the plants evaluated. L. monocytogenes was also isolated from different sites of the facilities, mainly in non food contact surfaces such as drains, floors, and platforms. Serotype 4b was the most predominant in the plants studied. The results of this study indicate the need for control strategies to prevent the dispersion of L. monocytogenes in the environment of cheese manufacturing plants.

Piscinoodinium pillulare (Schäperclaus, 1954) Lom, 1981 (Dinoflagellida) infection in cultivated freshwater fish from the Northeast region of São Paulo State, Brazil: parasitological and pathological aspects

O Centro de Aqüicultura, Unesp, Jaboticabal, SP, Brasil, recebeu peixes para diagnose, os quais apresentavam aglomeração nas bordas dos viveiros e na entrada da água. Dos 194 casos diagnosticados, 53 apresentavam estruturas brancas circulares ou ovais, imóveis, medindo 162 mm de diâmetro, identificadas como o dinoflagelado Piscinoodinium pillulare. em 34 casos, os parasitos estavam presentes nas brânquias, em 2 casos, no corpo e em 9 casos, em ambos. Dos 53 casos observados, 31 eram o híbrido tambacu; 7, o Piaractus mesopotamicus; 6, o Colossoma macropomum; 5, o Leporinus macrocephalus; 3, o Oreochromis niloticus; e 1, o Prochilodus lineatus. Os peixes apresentaram aumento da produção de muco no corpo e nas brânquias e equimoses no pedúnculo caudal e nos opérculos. As brânquias também apresentaram palidez, congestão e petéquias. A histopatologia revelou a presença de grande número de trofontes situados entre as lamelas secundárias, fixados ou não ao epitélio. As lamelas primárias mostraram hemorragias intersticiais, severa hiperplasia do epitélio e das células caliciformes e infiltrado inflamatório. O presente trabalho é o primeiro relato de P. pillulare no Brasil e enfatiza a importância dos dinoflagelados, que causaram significativas perdas econômicas entre 1995 e 1997.

Bovine abortion associated with Neospora caninum: Diagnosis and epidemiological aspects of a dairy cattle herd in the northeast region of São Paulo state, Brazil

The objective of this study was to report the presence of Neospora caninum-associated abortion in bovines at a farm in the northeast region of São Paulo State. In January 2010, it was sent to the Department of Pathology, UNESP-Jaboticabal, a bovine fetus with an estimated age of seven months, which was natural of a dairy farm with 300 animals and an average daily production of 3,000 liters of milk, nearly 20 liters per cow. The animals were vaccinated against rabies, foot and mouth disease, carbuncle, brucellosis, leptospirosis, bovine herpes virus type I and bovine viral diarrhea virus. The herd consisted of purebred Holstein animals, Jersey, and mostly by crossbred animals 7-8 (gir x holstein). During necropsy, samples of the serosanguineous liquid present at the thoracic cavity and the heart of the fetus were collected for the detection of anti-Neospora caninum antibodies through Indirect Immunofluorescence Assay (IFA). Fragments of brain, cerebellum, tongue, liver, heart and kidneys were collected for the execution of histopathology (HP), immunohistochemistry (IHC) and Polymerase Chain Reaction. In order that IFA could be performed, the owner was requested blood samples without anticoagulants of the mother and other cows in the farm, with or without a history of abortion. At necropsy, it was verified a severe autolysis of the fetus. The serology of the fetus was 1:25, while the serology of the mother was 1:3,200. At HP, it was observed discrete multifocal non-suppurative encephalomyelitis characterized by gliosis and mononuclear inflammatory infiltration associated with cellular debris. DNA amplification of N. caninum was positive in fragments of brain, tongue, cerebellum, heart and kidneys. At IHC, it has been observed immunoreactivity to a cyst located in the tongue. The owner reported that his herd showed endemic episodes of abortion, while 27.69% (18/65) of the 65 animals sampled were seropositive. Although it has not been a significant difference (p>0.05), a higher seropositivity was observed in animals with a history of abortion (10/26) 38.46%, in comparison with animals without previous abortion (8/39) 20.51%. These findings show that the abortion under study was provoked by the protozoan N. caninum, while this is the first report concerning cattle in the northeast region of São Paulo State.

Absence of detection of xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum in cotton seeds used in the Northeast Region of Mato Grosso do Sul in a three-based crop season study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influences of the harvest season on analytical characteristics of syrah grapes and wines produced in the northeast region of Brazil

The present study evaluated the main physical and chemical characteristics of Syrah grapes, coming from the tropical region of São Francisco river valley, harvested at different times and their relationship with analytical characteristics of resulting wines. Grapes came from the first half of 2009 harvest, collected at Casa Nova - Bahia, a semi-arid and hot region, comprising an interval from 84 days after pruning (84 dap) to the beginning of grape over-ripening, 133 days after pruning (133 dap). Harvests at 84, 91, 98, 105, 112, 119, 126 and 133 dap, were analyzed for pH, soluble solids and acidity in grapes, which were then processed for wine production. Maximum sugar/acidity ratio (s/a = 56) were observed in grapes harvested between 126 and 133 dap, coincided with the highest concentration of anthocyanins (851 mg L-1 ) and total tannins (2.6 g L-1 ) in the resulting wines, indicating that grapes collected between 126 and 133 dap showed the best potential for winemaking in the tropical climate of São Francisco river valley. This result was confirmed by the analytical characterization of wines, that, between 126 and 133 dap, showed 12.8% alcohol, 31 g L-1 dry extract, 5.6 g L-1 ashes and a TPI of 58, using only one pumping per day, for 5 days maceration. Syrah grapes considered in the present work presented a good evolution of maturation, and grapes harvested between 126 and 133 days after pruning, showed the best oenological potential for the development of red wine. The use of pH and soluble solids appeared useful parameters in the estimation of maturation degree and quality potential of grapes for winemaking.

Mycobacterium bovis infection in goats from the Northeast Region of Brazil

A total of 8,058 male and female mixed-breed goats and 1-4 years of age were slaughtered over a period of 7 months at the public slaughterhouse of Patos city, Paraíba state, in the Northeast region of Brazil; 822 animals were inspected for gross lesions of tuberculosis, and 12 (1.46%) had lesions suggestive of tuberculosis in the mammary gland, lungs, liver and mediastinal, mesenteric, submandibular, parotid and prescapular lymph nodes. Presence of granulomatous lesions was confirmed in the submandibular lymph node of one (8.3%) goat at the histopathological examination and at the mycobacterium culture the same sample was confirmed positive. Isolate was confirmed as belonging to the M. tuberculosis complex by PCR restriction enzyme analysis (PRA). Spoligotyping identified the isolate into spoligotype SB0295 on the M. bovis Spoligotype Database website (www.mbovis.org), and it was classified as M. bovis. The occurrence of M. bovis in goats in this study suggests that this species may be a potential source of infection for humans and should be regarded as a possible problem in the advancement of control and eradication program for bovine tuberculosis in Brazil.

CCR2 and CCR5 genes polymorphisms in women with cervical lesions from Pernambuco, Northeast Region of Brazil: a case-control study

Polymorphisms in chemokine receptors play an important role in the progression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) to cervical cancer (CC). Our study examined the association of CCR2-64I (rs1799864) and CCR5-Δ32 (rs333) polymorphisms with susceptibility to develop cervical lesion (CIN and CC) in a Brazilian population. The genotyping of 139 women with cervical lesions and 151 women without cervical lesions for the CCR2-64I and CCR5-Δ32 polymorphisms were performed using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. The individuals carrying heterozygous or homozygous genotypes (GA+AA) for CCR2-64I polymorphisms seem to be at lower risk for cervical lesion [odds ratio (OR) = 0.37, p = 0.0008)]. The same was observed for the A allele (OR = 0.39, p = 0.0002), while no association was detected (p > 0.05) with CCR5-Δ32 polymorphism. Regarding the human papillomavirus (HPV) type, patients carrying the CCR2-64I polymorphism were protected against infection by HPV type 16 (OR = 0.35, p = 0.0184). In summary, our study showed a protective effect of CCR2-64I rs1799864 polymorphism against the development of cervical lesions (CIN and CC) and in the susceptibility of HPV 16 infection.

Multilevel analysis of hepatitis A infection in children and adolescents: a household survey in the Northeast and Central-west regions of Brazil

Background The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis A among children and adolescents from the Northeast and Midwest regions and the Federal District of Brazil and to identify individual-, household- and area-levels factors associated with hepatitis A infection. Methods This population-based survey was conducted in 20042005 and covered individuals aged between 5 and 19 years. A stratified multistage cluster sampling technique with probability proportional to size was used to select 1937 individuals aged between 5 and 19 years living in the Federal capital and in the State capitals of 12 states in the study regions. The sample was stratified according to age (59 and 10- to 19-years-old) and capital within each region. Individual- and household-level data were collected by interview at the home of the individual. Variables related to the area were retrieved from census tract data. The outcome was total antibodies to hepatitis A virus detected using commercial EIA. The age distribution of the susceptible population was estimated using a simple catalytic model. The associations between HAV infection and independent variables were assessed using the odds ratio and corrected for the random design effect and sampling weight. Multilevel analysis was performed by GLLAMM using Stata 9.2. Results The prevalence of hepatitis A infection in the 59 and 1019 age-group was 41.5 and 57.4, respectively for the Northeast, 32.3 and 56.0, respectively for the Midwest and 33.8 and 65.1 for the Federal District. A trend for the prevalence of HAV infection to increase according to age was detected in all sites. By the age of 5, 31.5 of the children had already been infected with HAV in the Northeast region compared with 20.0 in the other sites. By the age of 19 years, seropositivity was 70 in all areas. The curves of susceptible populations differed from one area to another. Multilevel modeling showed that variables relating to different levels of education were associated with HAV infection in all sites. Conclusion The study sites were classified as areas with intermediate endemicity area for hepatitis A infection. Differences in age trends of infection were detected among settings. This multilevel model allowed for quantification of contextual predictors of hepatitis A infection in urban areas.

Basic assistance for mental health in Northeast Brazil

Introduction: Brazilian northeast region is historically affected by socioeconomic problems that made this region more needful for strategies regarding to psychiatric disorders assistance. Methods: This study includes original analysis based on data of secondary level health assistance, extracted from Brazil's Hospitalar Information System, Basic Assistance Information System and Brazilian Institute of Geographic and Statistics. Results: Between 2008 and 2010, more than two hundred million dollars were spent by Brazilian federal government to achieve better quality in the assistance for mental health in Northeast. The service network responsible for the treatment of mental disorders in primary care involves a wide range of professionals and establishments. Conclusion: In northeastern Brazil, socioeconomic and geographic conditions contribute to a particular state of vulnerability for the development of psychopathologies. The association of primary care and an integrated network of public health, however, have improved the attention to mental disordersin this region.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil

Santos C.S.A.B., Piatti R.M., Azevedo S.S., Alves C.J., Higino S.S.S., Silva M.L.C.R., Brasil A.W.L. & Gennari S.M. 2012. Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil. Pesquisa Veterinaria Brasileira 32(11):1082-1086. Unidade Academica de Medicina Veterinaria, Centro de Sa de e Tecnologia Rural, Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Av. Universitaria s/n, Bairro Santa Cecilia, Patos, PB 58700-970, Brazil. E-mail: sergio.azevedo@pq.cnpq.br Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraiba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats >= 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >= 32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.

Agronomic efficiency of Bradyrhizobium in peanut under different environments in Brazilian Northeast.

Several legumes have natural ability to associate with nitrogen - fixing bacteria known as rhizobia. The efficiency of this association depends on the plant and bacterial genotype and the edaphoclimatic conditions. Peanut is a tropical legume able to associate with a wide range of rhizobia and the selection of efficient bacteria is important to increase the nitrogen fixation in this crop. In order to investigate the agronomic efficiency of two Bradyrhizobiumstrains, two peanut genotypes were used in field trails carried out in three environments located at Brazilian Northeast. The genotypes (BR1 and L7 Bege) were submitted to rhizobial inoculation (SEMIA 6144 or ESA 123, both Bradyrhizobium strains, and chemical nitrogen fertilization in randomized block design experiments. The following traits were analyzed: flowering (F), main axis height (MAH), number of nodules/plant (NN), number of pods/plant (NP) and weight of pods (WP). Differential responses were found in all to treatments to NN, NP and WP, in the three environments studied. Overall, ESA 123 showed good agronomic performance inducing higher pod production. The results supportthe evaluation of the Bradyrhizobium in further experiments aiming at its recommendation to commercial inoculants in Brazilian Northeast region.