Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.

Harmonic source wavefront aberration correction for ultrasound imaging.

A method is proposed which uses a lower-frequency transmit to create a known harmonic acoustical source in tissue suitable for wavefront correction without a priori assumptions of the target or requiring a transponder. The measurement and imaging steps of this method were implemented on the Duke phased array system with a two-dimensional (2-D) array. The method was tested with multiple electronic aberrators [0.39π to 1.16π radians root-mean-square (rms) at 4.17 MHz] and with a physical aberrator 0.17π radians rms at 4.17 MHz) in a variety of imaging situations. Corrections were quantified in terms of peak beam amplitude compared to the unaberrated case, with restoration between 0.6 and 36.6 dB of peak amplitude with a single correction. Standard phantom images before and after correction were obtained and showed both visible improvement and 14 dB contrast improvement after correction. This method, when combined with previous phase correction methods, may be an important step that leads to improved clinical images.

Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

The synchronization of superparamagnetic beads driven by a micro-magnetic ratchet.

We present theoretical, numerical, and experimental analyses on the non-linear dynamic behavior of superparamagnetic beads exposed to a periodic array of micro-magnets and an external rotating field. The agreement between theoretical and experimental results revealed that non-linear magnetic forcing dynamics are responsible for transitions between phase-locked orbits, sub-harmonic orbits, and closed orbits, representing different mobility regimes of colloidal beads. These results suggest that the non-linear behavior can be exploited to construct a novel colloidal separation device that can achieve effectively infinite separation resolution for different types of beads, by exploiting minor differences in their bead's properties. We also identify a unique set of initial conditions, which we denote the "devil's gate" which can be used to expeditiously identify the full range of mobility for a given bead type.

Generalized sampling using a compound-eye imaging system for multi-dimensional object acquisition.

In this paper, we propose generalized sampling approaches for measuring a multi-dimensional object using a compact compound-eye imaging system called thin observation module by bound optics (TOMBO). This paper shows the proposed system model, physical examples, and simulations to verify TOMBO imaging using generalized sampling. In the system, an object is modulated and multiplied by a weight distribution with physical coding, and the coded optical signal is integrated on to a detector array. A numerical estimation algorithm employing a sparsity constraint is used for object reconstruction.

Effect of lithotripter focal width on stone comminution in shock wave lithotripsy.

Using a reflector insert, the original HM-3 lithotripter field at 20 kV was altered significantly with the peak positive pressure (p(+)) in the focal plane increased from 49 to 87 MPa while the -6 dB focal width decreased concomitantly from 11 to 4 mm. Using the original reflector, p(+) of 33 MPa with a -6 dB focal width of 18 mm were measured in a pre-focal plane 15-mm proximal to the lithotripter focus. However, the acoustic pulse energy delivered to a 28-mm diameter area around the lithotripter axis was comparable ( approximately 120 mJ). For all three exposure conditions, similar stone comminution ( approximately 70%) was produced in a mesh holder of 15 mm after 250 shocks. In contrast, stone comminution produced by the modified reflector either in a 15-mm finger cot (45%) or in a 30-mm membrane holder (14%) was significantly reduced from the corresponding values (56% and 26%) produced by the original reflector (no statistically significant differences were observed between the focal and pre-focal planes). These observations suggest that a low-pressure/broad focal width lithotripter field will produce better stone comminution than its counterpart with high-pressure/narrow focal width under clinically relevant in vitro comminution conditions.

Why do nominal characteristics acquire status value? A minimal explanation for status construction.

Why do beliefs that attach different amounts of status to different categories of people become consensually held by the members of a society? We show that two microlevel mechanisms, in combination, imply a system-level tendency toward consensual status beliefs about a nominal characteristic. (1) Status belief diffusion: a person who has no status belief about a characteristic can acquire a status belief about that characteristic from interacting with one or more people who have that status belief. (2) Status belief loss: a person who has a status belief about a characteristic can lose that belief from interacting with one or more people who have the opposite status belief. These mechanisms imply that opposite status beliefs will tend to be lost at equal rates and will tend to be acquired at rates proportional to their prevalence. Therefore, if a status belief ever becomes more prevalent than its opposite, it will increase in prevalence until every person holds it.

Magnetic resonance water proton relaxation in protein solutions and tissue: T(1rho) dispersion characterization.

BACKGROUND: Image contrast in clinical MRI is often determined by differences in tissue water proton relaxation behavior. However, many aspects of water proton relaxation in complex biological media, such as protein solutions and tissue are not well understood, perhaps due to the limited empirical data. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Water proton T(1), T(2), and T(1rho) of protein solutions and tissue were measured systematically under multiple conditions. Crosslinking or aggregation of protein decreased T(2) and T(1rho), but did not change high-field T(1). T(1rho) dispersion profiles were similar for crosslinked protein solutions, myocardial tissue, and cartilage, and exhibited power law behavior with T(1rho)(0) values that closely approximated T(2). The T(1rho) dispersion of mobile protein solutions was flat above 5 kHz, but showed a steep curve below 5 kHz that was sensitive to changes in pH. The T(1rho) dispersion of crosslinked BSA and cartilage in DMSO solvent closely resembled that of water solvent above 5 kHz but showed decreased dispersion below 5 kHz. CONCLUSIONS: Proton exchange is a minor pathway for tissue T(1) and T(1rho) relaxation above 5 kHz. Potential models for relaxation are discussed, however the same molecular mechanism appears to be responsible across 5 decades of frequencies from T(1rho) to T(1).

Application description and policy model in collaborative environment for sharing of information on epidemiological and clinical research data sets.

BACKGROUND: Sharing of epidemiological and clinical data sets among researchers is poor at best, in detriment of science and community at large. The purpose of this paper is therefore to (1) describe a novel Web application designed to share information on study data sets focusing on epidemiological clinical research in a collaborative environment and (2) create a policy model placing this collaborative environment into the current scientific social context. METHODOLOGY: The Database of Databases application was developed based on feedback from epidemiologists and clinical researchers requiring a Web-based platform that would allow for sharing of information about epidemiological and clinical study data sets in a collaborative environment. This platform should ensure that researchers can modify the information. A Model-based predictions of number of publications and funding resulting from combinations of different policy implementation strategies (for metadata and data sharing) were generated using System Dynamics modeling. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The application allows researchers to easily upload information about clinical study data sets, which is searchable and modifiable by other users in a wiki environment. All modifications are filtered by the database principal investigator in order to maintain quality control. The application has been extensively tested and currently contains 130 clinical study data sets from the United States, Australia, China and Singapore. Model results indicated that any policy implementation would be better than the current strategy, that metadata sharing is better than data-sharing, and that combined policies achieve the best results in terms of publications. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our empirical observations and resulting model, the social network environment surrounding the application can assist epidemiologists and clinical researchers contribute and search for metadata in a collaborative environment, thus potentially facilitating collaboration efforts among research communities distributed around the globe.

Qualitative analysis of the interdisciplinary interaction between data analysis specialists and novice clinical researchers.

BACKGROUND: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of "what if" situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.

Standardizing clinical trials workflow representation in UML for international site comparison.

BACKGROUND: With the globalization of clinical trials, a growing emphasis has been placed on the standardization of the workflow in order to ensure the reproducibility and reliability of the overall trial. Despite the importance of workflow evaluation, to our knowledge no previous studies have attempted to adapt existing modeling languages to standardize the representation of clinical trials. Unified Modeling Language (UML) is a computational language that can be used to model operational workflow, and a UML profile can be developed to standardize UML models within a given domain. This paper's objective is to develop a UML profile to extend the UML Activity Diagram schema into the clinical trials domain, defining a standard representation for clinical trial workflow diagrams in UML. METHODS: Two Brazilian clinical trial sites in rheumatology and oncology were examined to model their workflow and collect time-motion data. UML modeling was conducted in Eclipse, and a UML profile was developed to incorporate information used in discrete event simulation software. RESULTS: Ethnographic observation revealed bottlenecks in workflow: these included tasks requiring full commitment of CRCs, transferring notes from paper to computers, deviations from standard operating procedures, and conflicts between different IT systems. Time-motion analysis revealed that nurses' activities took up the most time in the workflow and contained a high frequency of shorter duration activities. Administrative assistants performed more activities near the beginning and end of the workflow. Overall, clinical trial tasks had a greater frequency than clinic routines or other general activities. CONCLUSIONS: This paper describes a method for modeling clinical trial workflow in UML and standardizing these workflow diagrams through a UML profile. In the increasingly global environment of clinical trials, the standardization of workflow modeling is a necessary precursor to conducting a comparative analysis of international clinical trials workflows.

Nonlinear oscillator metamaterial model: numerical and experimental verification.

We verify numerically and experimentally the accuracy of an analytical model used to derive the effective nonlinear susceptibilities of a varactor-loaded split ring resonator (VLSRR) magnetic medium. For the numerical validation, a nonlinear oscillator model for the effective magnetization of the metamaterial is applied in conjunction with Maxwell equations and the two sets of equations solved numerically in the time-domain. The computed second harmonic generation (SHG) from a slab of a nonlinear material is then compared with the analytical model. The computed SHG is in excellent agreement with that predicted by the analytical model, both in terms of magnitude and spectral characteristics. Moreover, experimental measurements of the power transmitted through a fabricated VLSRR metamaterial at several power levels are also in agreement with the model, illustrating that the effective medium techniques associated with metamaterials can accurately be transitioned to nonlinear systems.

Refractive changes after descemet stripping endothelial keratoplasty: a simplified mathematical model.

PURPOSE: To develop a mathematical model that can predict refractive changes after Descemet stripping endothelial keratoplasty (DSEK). METHODS: A mathematical formula based on the Gullstrand eye model was generated to estimate the change in refractive power of the eye after DSEK. This model was applied to four DSEK cases retrospectively, to compare measured and predicted refractive changes after DSEK. RESULTS: The refractive change after DSEK is determined by calculating the difference in the power of the eye before and after DSEK surgery. The power of the eye post-DSEK surgery can be calculated with modified Gullstrand eye model equations that incorporate the change in the posterior radius of curvature and change in the distance between the principal planes of the cornea and lens after DSEK. Analysis of this model suggests that the ratio of central to peripheral graft thickness (CP ratio) and central thickness can have significant effect on refractive change where smaller CP ratios and larger graft thicknesses result in larger hyperopic shifts. This model was applied to four patients, and the average predicted hyperopic shift in the overall power of the eye was calculated to be 0.83 D. This change reflected in a mean of 93% (range, 75%-110%) of patients' measured refractive shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This simplified DSEK mathematical model can be used as a first step for estimating the hyperopic shift after DSEK. Further studies are necessary to refine the validity of this model.

Far-field analysis of axially symmetric three-dimensional directional cloaks.

Axisymmetric radiating and scattering structures whose rotational invariance is broken by non-axisymmetric excitations present an important class of problems in electromagnetics. For such problems, a cylindrical wave decomposition formalism can be used to efficiently obtain numerical solutions to the full-wave frequency-domain problem. Often, the far-field, or Fraunhofer region is of particular interest in scattering cross-section and radiation pattern calculations; yet, it is usually impractical to compute full-wave solutions for this region. Here, we propose a generalization of the Stratton-Chu far-field integral adapted for 2.5D formalism. The integration over a closed, axially symmetric surface is analytically reduced to a line integral on a meridional plane. We benchmark this computational technique by comparing it with analytical Mie solutions for a plasmonic nanoparticle, and apply it to the design of a three-dimensional polarization-insensitive cloak.

Discharge competence and pattern formation in peatlands: a meta-ecosystem model of the Everglades ridge-slough landscape.

Regular landscape patterning arises from spatially-dependent feedbacks, and can undergo catastrophic loss in response to changing landscape drivers. The central Everglades (Florida, USA) historically exhibited regular, linear, flow-parallel orientation of high-elevation sawgrass ridges and low-elevation sloughs that has degraded due to hydrologic modification. In this study, we use a meta-ecosystem approach to model a mechanism for the establishment, persistence, and loss of this landscape. The discharge competence (or self-organizing canal) hypothesis assumes non-linear relationships between peat accretion and water depth, and describes flow-dependent feedbacks of microtopography on water depth. Closed-form model solutions demonstrate that 1) this mechanism can produce spontaneous divergence of local elevation; 2) divergent and homogenous states can exhibit global bi-stability; and 3) feedbacks that produce divergence act anisotropically. Thus, discharge competence and non-linear peat accretion dynamics may explain the establishment, persistence, and loss of landscape pattern, even in the absence of other spatial feedbacks. Our model provides specific, testable predictions that may allow discrimination between the self-organizing canal hypotheses and competing explanations. The potential for global bi-stability suggested by our model suggests that hydrologic restoration may not re-initiate spontaneous pattern establishment, particularly where distinct soil elevation modes have been lost. As a result, we recommend that management efforts should prioritize maintenance of historic hydroperiods in areas of conserved pattern over restoration of hydrologic regimes in degraded regions. This study illustrates the value of simple meta-ecosystem models for investigation of spatial processes.