Importance of initial state and atmospheric conditions for urban land surface models' performance

Urban land surface models (LSM) are commonly evaluated for short periods (a few weeks to months) because of limited observational data. This makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of initial conditions on model performance or to consider the response of a model to a range of possible atmospheric conditions. Drawing on results from the first urban LSM comparison, these two issues are considered. Assessment shows that the initial soil moisture has a substantial impact on the performance. Models initialised with soils that are too dry are not able to adjust their surface sensible and latent heat fluxes to realistic values until there is sufficient rainfall. Models initialised with too wet soils are not able to restrict their evaporation appropriately for periods in excess of a year. This has implications for short term evaluation studies and implies the need for soil moisture measurements to improve data assimilation and model initialisation. In contrast, initial conditions influencing the thermal storage have a much shorter adjustment timescale compared to soil moisture. Most models partition too much of the radiative energy at the surface into the sensible heat flux at the probable expense of the net storage heat flux.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Remaining useful life prediction of rotating equipment using covariate-based hazard models : industry applications

The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.

Percorsi di gender performance: fotografia tra arte e moda dagli anni Novanta ad oggi

My project explores and compares different forms of gender performance in contemporary art and visual culture according to a perspective centered on photography. Thanks to its attesting power this medium can work as a ready-made. In fact during the 20th century it played a key role in the cultural emancipation of the body which (using a Michel Foucault’s expression) has now become «the zero point of the world». Through performance the body proves to be a living material of expression and communication while photography ensures the recording of any ephemeral event that happens in time and space. My questioning approach considers the gender constructed imagery from the 1990s to the present in order to investigate how photography’s strong aura of realism promotes and allows fantasies of transformation. The contemporary fascination with gender (especially for art and fashion) represents a crucial issue in the global context of postmodernity and is manifested in a variety of visual media, from photography to video and film. Moreover the internet along with its digital transmission of images has deeply affected our world (from culture to everyday life) leading to a postmodern preference for performativity over the more traditional and linear forms of narrativity. As a consequence individual borders get redefined by the skin itself which (dissected through instant vision) turns into a ductile material of mutation and hybridation in the service of identity. My critical assumptions are taken from the most relevant changes occurred in philosophy during the last two decades as a result of the contributions by Jacques Lacan, Michel Foucault, Jacques Derrida, Gilles Deleuze who developed a cross-disciplinary and comparative approach to interpret the crisis of modernity. They have profoundly influenced feminist studies so that the category of gender has been reassessed in contrast with sex (as a biological connotation) and in relation to history, culture, society. The ideal starting point of my research is the year 1990. I chose it as the approximate historical moment when the intersection of race, class and gender were placed at the forefront of international artistic production concerned with identity, diversity and globalization. Such issues had been explored throughout the 1970s but it was only from the mid-1980s onward that they began to be articulated more consistently. Published in 1990, the book "Gender trouble: feminism and the subversion of identity" by Judith Butler marked an important breakthrough by linking gender to performance as well as investigating the intricate connections between theory and practice, embodiment and representation. It inspired subsequent research in a variety of disciplines, art history included. In the same year Teresa de Lauretis launched the definition of queer theory to challenge the academic perspective in gay and lesbian studies. In the meantime the rise of Third Wave Feminism in the US introduced a racially and sexually inclusive vision over the global situation in order to reflect on subjectivity, new technologies and popular culture in connection with gender representation. These conceptual tools have enabled prolific readings of contemporary cultural production whether fine arts or mass media. After discussing the appropriate framework of my project and taking into account the postmodern globalization of the visual, I have turned to photography to map gender representation both in art and in fashion. Therefore I have been creating an archive of images around specific topics. I decided to include fashion photography because in the 1990s this genre moved away from the paradigm of an idealized and classical beauty toward a new vernacular allied with lifestyles, art practices, pop and youth culture; as one might expect the dominant narrative modes in fashion photography are now mainly influenced by cinema and snapshot. These strategies originate story lines and interrupted narratives using models’ performance to convey a particular imagery where identity issues emerge as an essential part of fashion spectacle. Focusing on the intersections of gender identities with socially and culturally produced identities, my approach intends to underline how the fashion world has turned to current trends in art photography and in some case turned to the artists themselves. The growing fluidity of the categories that distinguish art from fashion photography represents a particularly fruitful moment of visual exchange. Varying over time the dialogue between these two fields has always been vital; nowadays it can be studied as a result of this close relationship between contemporary art world and consumer culture. Due to the saturation of postmodern imagery the feedback between art and fashion has become much more immediate and then increasingly significant for anyone who wants to investigate the construction of gender identity through performance. In addition to that a lot of magazines founded in the 1990s bridged the worlds of art and fashion because some of their designers and even editors were art-school graduates encouraging innovation. The inclusion of art within such magazines aimed at validating them as a form of art in themselves supporting a dynamic intersection for music, fashion, design and youth culture: an intersection that also contributed to create and spread different gender stereotypes. This general interest in fashion produced many exhibitions of and about fashion itself at major international venues such as the Victoria and Albert Museum in London, the Metropolitan Museum of Art and the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum in New York. Since then this celebrated success of fashion has been regarded as a typical element of postmodern culture. Owing to that I have also based my analysis on some important exhibitions dealing with gender performance like "Féminin-Masculin" at the Centre Pompidou of Paris (1995), "Rrose is a Rrose is a Rrose. Gender performance in photography" at the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum of New York (1997), "Global Feminisms" at the Brooklyn Museum (2007), "Female Trouble" at the Pinakothek der Moderne in München together with the workshops dedicated to "Performance: gender and identity" in June 2005 at the Tate Modern of London. Since 2003 in Italy we have had Gender Bender - an international festival held annually in Bologna - to explore the gender imagery stemming from contemporary culture. In few days this festival offers a series of events ranging from visual arts, performance, cinema, literature to conferences and music. Being aware that any method of research is neither race nor gender neutral I have traced these critical paths to question gender identity in a multicultural perspective taking account of the political implications too. In fact, if visibility may be equated with exposure, we can also read these images as points of intersection of visibility with social power. Since gender assignations rely so heavily on the visual, the postmodern dismantling of gender certainty through performance has wide-ranging effects that need to be analyzed. In some sense this practice can even contest the dominance of visual within postmodernism. My visual map in contemporary art and fashion photography includes artists like Nan Goldin, Cindy Sherman, Hellen van Meene, Rineke Dijkstra, Ed Templeton, Ryan McGinley, Anne Daems, Miwa Yanagi, Tracey Moffat, Catherine Opie, Tomoko Sawada, Vanessa Beecroft, Yasumasa Morimura, Collier Schorr among others.

LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E), East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP). Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model’s performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m) and over the average lake depth (240 m), since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

Assessment of Skill and Portability in Regional Marine Biogeochemical Models: Role of Multiple Planktonic Groups

Application of biogeochemical models to the study of marine ecosystems is pervasive, yet objective quantification of these models' performance is rare. Here, 12 lower trophic level models of varying complexity are objectively assessed in two distinct regions (equatorial Pacific and Arabian Sea). Each model was run within an identical one-dimensional physical framework. A consistent variational adjoint implementation assimilating chlorophyll-a, nitrate, export, and primary productivity was applied and the same metrics were used to assess model skill. Experiments were performed in which data were assimilated from each site individually and from both sites simultaneously. A cross-validation experiment was also conducted whereby data were assimilated from one site and the resulting optimal parameters were used to generate a simulation for the second site. When a single pelagic regime is considered, the simplest models fit the data as well as those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups. However, those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups produced lower misfits when the models are required to simulate both regimes using identical parameter values. The cross-validation experiments revealed that as long as only a few key biogeochemical parameters were optimized, the models with greater phytoplankton complexity were generally more portable. Furthermore, models with multiple zooplankton compartments did not necessarily outperform models with single zooplankton compartments, even when zooplankton biomass data are assimilated. Finally, even when different models produced similar least squares model-data misfits, they often did so via very different element flow pathways, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data sets that uniquely constrain these pathways.

A normal-distribution based reputation model

Rating systems are used by many websites, which allow customers to rate available items according to their own experience. Subsequently, reputation models are used to aggregate available ratings in order to generate reputation scores for items. A problem with current reputation models is that they provide solutions to enhance accuracy of sparse datasets not thinking of their models performance over dense datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel reputation model to generate more accurate reputation scores for items using any dataset; whether it is dense or sparse. Our proposed model is described as a weighted average method, where the weights are generated using the normal distribution. Experiments show promising results for the proposed model over state-of-the-art ones on sparse and dense datasets.

Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Estudo termodinâmico da precipitação de parafinas em petróleos brasileiros

Um dos grandes desafios enfrentados pela indústria do petróleo é reduzir o impacto causado pela cristalização indesejável de hidrocarbonetos parafínicos de elevada massa molar em tubulações e equipamentos de produção. A cristalização de parafinas em petróleo é normalmente detectada através da determinação da temperatura inicial de aparecimento de cristais (TIAC), que pode ser estimada através de modelagem termodinâmica com base na composição do petróleo. Os objetivos deste trabalho são: estudar os principais modelos termodinâmicos adotados para descrever a precipitação de parafinas; verificar a validade desses modelos para os petróleos brasileiros e determinar qual modelo é o mais adequado para esses óleos. Para tanto, três formas de cálculo da razão entre as fugacidades das fases sólida e líquida e cinco modelos para calcular os coeficientes de atividade dos componentes em cada fase são aplicados aos dados de composição de vinte e três petróleos brasileiros. Os resultados mostram que o modelo ideal de múltiplas fases sólidas e o modelo de Escobar-Remolina geram valores bastante abaixo da TIAC experimental. Para os modelos de única fase sólida ideal, de Won e de Coutinho, foi possível observar que: a) a grande maioria dos erros é negativa; b) que estes se distribuem melhor em torno de zero quando se utiliza a correlação de Coutinho para o cálculo dos valores de i; c) os valores de erro médio para os modelos de Coutinho, de Won e ideal com única fase sólida se equivalem, qualquer que seja o modelo utilizado para o cálculo de i, exceto para o caso em que todos os compostos presentes na fase líquida podem precipitar; d) os valores obtidos através do modelo de Coutinho apresentam erro sistemático em relação ao modelo ideal de única fase sólida; e) as diferentes formas de se calcular a razão entre as fugacidades da fase sólida e líquida (i) influenciam fortemente a capacidade preditiva dos modelos, o que não era esperado; f) o perfil do primeiro cristal formado nos petróleos é influenciado pelas moléculas mais pesadas presentes nos resíduos, o que mostra a necessidade de se desenvolver metodologias precisas e robustas de caracterização de resíduos; g) a inclusão de uma estimativa para a composição dos resíduos efetivamente melhorou o desempenho dos modelos em petróleos médio; h) em petróleos pesados, houve um aumento do erro de previsão da TIAC devido à pouca ou nenhuma quantidade de parafinas nos resíduos desses óleos. A necessidade de uma melhor caracterização dos resíduos de petróleos é corroborada pelo fato da TIAC calculada pelos modelos ser, via de regra, mais baixa que a TIAC experimental e pela melhora no desempenho dos modelos quando se estimou a composição dos resíduos, em petróleos médios

Earthmoving trucks condition level prediction using neural networks

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present an artificial neural network (ANN) model that predicts earthmoving trucks condition level using simple predictors; the model’s performance is compared to the respective predictive accuracy of the statistical method of discriminant analysis (DA).

Design/methodology/approach: An ANN-based predictive model is developed. The condition level predictors selected are the capacity, age, kilometers travelled and maintenance level. The relevant data set was provided by two Greek construction companies and includes the characteristics of 126 earthmoving trucks.

Findings: Data processing identifies a particularly strong connection of kilometers travelled and maintenance level with the earthmoving trucks condition level. Moreover, the validation process reveals that the predictive efficiency of the proposed ANN model is very high. Similar findings emerge from the application of DA to the same data set using the same predictors.

Originality/value: Earthmoving trucks’ sound condition level prediction reduces downtime and its adverse impact on earthmoving duration and cost, while also enhancing the maintenance and replacement policies effectiveness. This research proves that a sound condition level prediction for earthmoving trucks is achievable through the utilization of easy to collect data and provides a comparative evaluation of the results of two widely applied predictive methods.

Exploring the links between urban stucture and air quality

A poluição atmosférica constitui actualmente um grave problema ambiental cujos efeitos se fazem sentir a diversas escalas, desde os efeitos imediatos e de longo termo na saúde humana e nos materiais, até fenómenos regionais, como a acificação, e fenómenos globais que durante este século poderão alterar as condições de vida no globo. Apesar da redução das emissões de poluentes atmosféricos, conseguida através do uso de combustíveis mais limpos e tecnologias mais eficientes, as áreas urbanas continuam a evidenciar sinais de degradação ambiental. Para ser bem sucedida a cidade deve enfrentar as três dimensões da sustentabilidade: social, económica e ambiental. O modo de utilização do solo numa zona urbana é uma característica fundamental da cidade, com influência directa no seu desempenho ambiental e na qualidade de vida que proporciona à população. O presente trabalho explora a ligação entre a estrutura urbana e a qualidade do ar, um dos muitos aspectos do desenvolvimento urbano sustentável. A perspectiva histórica sobre o desenvolvimento urbano, a poluição atmosférica e a sua interligação é abordada, bem como o trabalho de investigação que tem vindo a ser conduzido na área. A aplicação de um sistema de modelação atmosférico a um caso de estudo idealizado demonstra a importância da estrutura espacial da cidade na sustentabilidade urbana, mostrando que cidades compactas com usos do solo misturados promovem uma melhor qualidade do ar quando comparadas com cidades dispersas, com baixa densidade populacional. De modo a explorar a relação entre a estrutura urbana e a qualidade do ar numa zona urbana real, a região urbana do Porto é identificada como um caso de estudo adequado, e o processo de crescimento urbano nas últimas décadas é analisado, assim como os níveis de qualidade do ar da região. De modo a definir a configuração do sistema de modelação mais adequada para a região de estudo, são efectuados diversos testes de sensibilidade com o modelo meteorológico. Relativamente ao modelo de qualidade do ar, é descrito e implementado um conjunto de acções de modo a melhorar o desempenho do modelo para a simulação das concentrações de poluentes na atmosfera urbana, no contexto de alterações do uso do solo. Finalmente, são desenvolvidos e testados, através da aplicação do sistema de modelação, dois cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento urbano para a área de estudo. Estes cenários alternativos implicam diferentes emissões de poluentes e diferentes distribuições espaciais dessas emissões, e como consequência, diferentes níveis de qualidade do ar. O estudo permite concluir que alterações nos padrões de uso do solo em áreas urbanas conduzem a alterações na meteorologia, emissões e qualidade do ar. As áreas urbanas dispersas, quando comparadas com estruturas urbanas compactas são responsáveis por temperaturas mais elevadas, emissões de poluentes para a atmosfera mais elevadas e maiores concentrações de poluentes.

Volatility and VaR Forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange

This paper provides an empirical study to assess the forecasting performance of a wide range of models for predicting volatility and VaR in the Madrid Stock Exchange. The models performance was measured by using different loss functions and criteria. The results show that FIAPARCH processes capture and forecast more accurately the dynamics of IBEX-35 returns volatility. It is also observed that assuming a heavy-tailed distribution does not improve models ability for predicting volatility. However, when the aim is forecasting VaR, we find evidence of that the Student’s t FIAPARCH outperforms the models it nests the lower the target quantile.

Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale–microscale coupling techniques

Wind resource evaluation in two sites located in Portugal was performed using the mesoscale modelling system Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the wind resource analysis tool commonly used within the wind power industry, the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) microscale model. Wind measurement campaigns were conducted in the selected sites, allowing for a comparison between in situ measurements and simulated wind, in terms of flow characteristics and energy yields estimates. Three different methodologies were tested, aiming to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of these methodologies for wind resource estimation. In the first methodology the mesoscale model acts like “virtual” wind measuring stations, where wind data was computed by WRF for both sites and inserted directly as input in WAsP. In the second approach, the same procedure was followed but here the terrain influences induced by the mesoscale model low resolution terrain data were removed from the simulated wind data. In the third methodology, the simulated wind data is extracted at the top of the planetary boundary layer height for both sites, aiming to assess if the use of geostrophic winds (which, by definition, are not influenced by the local terrain) can bring any improvement in the models performance. The obtained results for the abovementioned methodologies were compared with those resulting from in situ measurements, in terms of mean wind speed, Weibull probability density function parameters and production estimates, considering the installation of one wind turbine in each site. Results showed that the second tested approach is the one that produces values closest to the measured ones, and fairly acceptable deviations were found using this coupling technique in terms of estimated annual production. However, mesoscale output should not be used directly in wind farm sitting projects, mainly due to the mesoscale model terrain data poor resolution. Instead, the use of mesoscale output in microscale models should be seen as a valid alternative to in situ data mainly for preliminary wind resource assessments, although the application of mesoscale and microscale coupling in areas with complex topography should be done with extreme caution.

Impact of Node Mobility on Routing Protocols for Wireless Sensor Networks

Wireless sensor networks monitor their surrounding environment for the occurrence of some anticipated phenomenon. Most of the research related to sensor networks considers the static deployment of sensor nodes. Mobility of sensor node can be considered as an extra dimension of complexity, which poses interesting and challenging problems. Node mobility is a very important aspect in the design of effective routing algorithm for mobile wireless networks. In this work we intent to present the impact of different mobility models on the performance of the wireless sensor networks. Routing characteristics of various routing protocols for ad-hoc network were studied considering different mobility models. Performance metrics such as end-to-end delay, throughput and routing load were considered and their variations in the case of mobility models like Freeway, RPGM were studied. This work will be useful to figure out the characteristics of routing protocols depending on the mobility patterns of sensors