Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Algorithm-based continuous pulse duration tuning and performance control of a mode-locked laser diode.

A control algorithm is presented that addresses the stability issues inherent to the operation of monolithic mode-locked laser diodes. It enables a continuous pulse duration tuning without any onset of Q-switching instabilities. A demonstration of the algorithm performance is presented for two radically different laser diode geometries and continuous pulse duration tuning between 0.5 ps to 2.2 ps and 1.2 ps to 10.2 ps is achieved. With practical applications in mind, this algorithm also facilitates control over performance parameters such as output power and wavelength during pulse duration tuning. The developed algorithm enables the user to harness the operational flexibility from such a laser with 'push-button' simplicity.

Diode-pumped continuous wave and Q-switched operation of a c-cut Tm,Ho:YAlO3 laser

We report on a diode-pumped, cryogenic and room temperature operation of a Tm,Ho:YAlO3 (c-cut) laser. In a temperature of 77 K, an optical-optical conversion efficiency of 27% and a slope efficiency of 29% were achieved with the maximum continuous-wave (CW) output power of 5.0 W at 2.13 mu m. Acousto-optic switched operation was performed at pulse repetition frequency (PRF) from 1 kHz to 10 kHz, the highest pulse energy of 3.3 mJ in a pulse duration of 40 ns was obtained. In room temperature (RT), the maximum CW power of Tm,Ho:YAlO3 laser was 160 mW with a slope efficiency of 11% corresponding to the absorbed pump power. (C) 2008 Optical Society of America.

Diode-pumped room-temperature continuous wave Tm3+ doped Lu2SiO5 laser

We report on room temperature laser actions of a novel thulium-doped crystal Tm center dot Lu2SiO5 (LSO) under diode pumping. An optical optical conversion efficiency of 12% and a slope efficiency of 21% were obtained with the maximum continuous wave (CW) output power of 0.67 W. The emission wavelengths of Tm LSO laser were centered at 2058.4 nm with bandwidth of similar to 13.6 nm.

Planning of distribution networks for medium voltage and low voltage

Determination of the placement and rating of transformers and feeders are the main objective of the basic distribution network planning. The bus voltage and the feeder current are two constraints which should be maintained within their standard range. The distribution network planning is hardened when the planning area is located far from the sources of power generation and the infrastructure. This is mainly as a consequence of the voltage drop, line loss and system reliability. Long distance to supply loads causes a significant amount of voltage drop across the distribution lines. Capacitors and Voltage Regulators (VRs) can be installed to decrease the voltage drop. This long distance also increases the probability of occurrence of a failure. This high probability leads the network reliability to be low. Cross-Connections (CC) and Distributed Generators (DGs) are devices which can be employed for improving system reliability. Another main factor which should be considered in planning of distribution networks (in both rural and urban areas) is load growth. For supporting this factor, transformers and feeders are conventionally upgraded which applies a large cost. Installation of DGs and capacitors in a distribution network can alleviate this issue while the other benefits are gained. In this research, a comprehensive planning is presented for the distribution networks. Since the distribution network is composed of low and medium voltage networks, both are included in this procedure. However, the main focus of this research is on the medium voltage network planning. The main objective is to minimize the investment cost, the line loss, and the reliability indices for a study timeframe and to support load growth. The investment cost is related to the distribution network elements such as the transformers, feeders, capacitors, VRs, CCs, and DGs. The voltage drop and the feeder current as the constraints are maintained within their standard range. In addition to minimizing the reliability and line loss costs, the planned network should support a continual growth of loads, which is an essential concern in planning distribution networks. In this thesis, a novel segmentation-based strategy is proposed for including this factor. Using this strategy, the computation time is significantly reduced compared with the exhaustive search method as the accuracy is still acceptable. In addition to being applicable for considering the load growth, this strategy is appropriate for inclusion of practical load characteristic (dynamic), as demonstrated in this thesis. The allocation and sizing problem has a discrete nature with several local minima. This highlights the importance of selecting a proper optimization method. Modified discrete particle swarm optimization as a heuristic method is introduced in this research to solve this complex planning problem. Discrete nonlinear programming and genetic algorithm as an analytical and a heuristic method respectively are also applied to this problem to evaluate the proposed optimization method.

110-W fiber laser with homemade double-clad fiber

A high-power ytterbium-doped fiber laser (YDFL) with homemade double-clad fiber (DCF) is introduced in this letter. The geometric parameter and laser characteristics of the fiber have been studied. With one-end-pumping scheme, pumped by a high-power laser diode with launching power of 280 W, a maximum continuous wave (CW) output of 110 W is obtained with an optical-to-optical efficiency of 40%.

Whistles of boto, Inia geoffrensis, and tucuxi, Sotalia fluviatilis

Whistles were recorded and analyzed from free-ranging single or mixed species groups of boto and tucuxi in the Peruvian Amazon, with sonograms presented. Analysis revealed whistles recorded falling into two discrete groups: a low-frequency group with maximum frequency below 5 kHz, and a high-frequency group with maximum frequencies above 8 kHz and usually above 10 kHz. Whistles in the two groups differed significantly in all five measured variables (beginning frequency, end frequency, minimum frequency, maximum frequency, and duration). Comparisons with Published details of whistles by other platanistoid river dolphins and by oceanic dolphins suggest that the low-frequency whistles were produced by boto, the high-frequency whistles by tucuxi. Tape recordings obtained on three occasions when only one species was present tentatively support this conclusion, but it is emphasized that this is based on few data. (C) 2001 Acoustical Society of America.

High-power AlGaInP laser diodes with current-injection-free region near the laser facet

A high-power AlGaInP laser diode with current-injection-free region near the facet is successfully fabricated by metaorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) using the (100) direction n-GaAs substrates with a misorientation of 15 deg toward the (011) direction. The maximum continuous wave output power is about 90 mW for the traditional structure. In comparison, the maximum output power is enhanced by about 67%, and achieves 150 mW for LDs with current-infection-free regions. The fundamental transverse-mode operation is obtained up to 70 mW. Output characteristics at high temperatures are also improved greatly for an LD with a current-injection-free region, and the highest operation temperature is 70 C at 50 mW without kink. The threshold current is about 33 mA, the operation current and the slope efficiency at 100 mW are 120 mA and 0.9 mW/mA, respectively. The lasing wavelength is 658.4 nm at room-temperature 50 mW. (c) 2006 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Predicting physiological capacity of human load carriage - a review

This review article aims to evaluate a proposed maximum acceptable work duration model for load carriage tasks. It is contended that this concept has particular relevance to physically demanding occupations such as military and firefighting. Personnel in these occupations are often required to perform very physically demanding tasks, over varying time periods, often involving load carriage. Previous research has investigated concepts related to physiological workload limits in occupational settings (e.g. industrial). Evidence suggests however, that existing (unloaded) workload guidelines are not appropriate for load carriage tasks. The utility of this model warrants further work to enable prediction of load carriage durations across a range of functional workloads for physically demanding occupations. If the maximum duration for which personnel can physiologically sustain a load carriage task could be accurately predicted, commanders and supervisors could better plan for and manage tasks to ensure operational imperatives were met whilst minimising health risks for their workers.

Custos de ajustamento e a dinâmica da estrutura de capital em empresas brasileiras

Diversos estudos de Finanças Corporativas consideram os custos associados aos ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas irrelevantes tanto na forma quanto em magnitude. Este estudo analisou empiricamente a influência dos custos de ajustamento na dinâmica dos ajustes da estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 1999 a 2007. A alavancagem foi abordada sob três diferentes cenários, considerando a presença de custos fixos, custos proporcionais e por uma composição de custos fixos e proporcionais através de simulações utilizando um modelo reduzido da estrutura de capital. Em seguida a análise não paramétrica da amostra revelou que as empresas apresentam um comportamento dinâmico em suas decisões de financiamento para o ajuste da estruturas de capital, mas que não se revelou contínuo. A utilização de um modelo de duration mostrou-se adequado para mensurar o intervalo de tempo entre os ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados são extremamente relevantes e suportam a teoria de um comportamento de rebalanceamento dinâmico pelas empresas de suas estruturas de capital em torno de um intervalo ótimo. Entretanto os ajustes não ocorrem de forma imediata e a persistência de choques à estrutura de capital deve-se em sua maior parte aos custos associados aos ajustes do que a uma possível indiferença à estrutura de capital. . Este trabalho constitui-se como pioneiro no mercado brasileiro acerca dos custos de ajustamento da estrutura de capital e abre espaço para a discussão do comportamento ótimo em torno da estrutura de capital de empresas nacionais.

Limiar anaeróbio e velocidade crítica determinada com diferentes distâncias em nadadores de 10 a 15 anos: relações com a performance e a resposta do lactato sanguíneo em testes de endurance

O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar a velocidade crítica (VC) determinada através de diferentes distâncias com o limiar anaeróbio (LAn) e as velocidades máximas mantidas em testes de 20 (V20) e 30 (V30) minutos na natação, verificando se a idade cronológica em jovens nadadores interfere nessas relações. Participaram do estudo 31 nadadores (17 meninas e 14 meninos) divididos segundo a idade cronológica em dois grupos: 10 a 12 anos e 13 a 15 anos. O LAn foi determinado como sendo a velocidade correspondente a 4mM de lactato sanguíneo. A VC1 (25/50/100m), VC2 (100/200/400m) e a VC3 (50/100/200m) foram calculadas através do coeficiente angular da reta de regressão linear entre as distâncias e seus respectivos tempos. As V20 e V30 foram determinadas através de três a seis repetições, com coletas de sangue no 10º minuto e ao final do tiro. Para o grupo de 10 a 12 anos, a VC1 (m/s) (0,98 ± 0,17) e o LAn (0,97 ± 0,12) não foram diferentes entre si, sendo maiores do que a VC2 (0,92 ± 0,16), VC3 (0,89 ± 0,18), V20 (0,92 ± 0,11) e V30 (0,90 ± 0,11). Para o grupo de 13 a 15 anos, a VC1 (m/s)(1,11 ± 0,11) foi maior do que o LAn (1,02 ± 0,07), V20 (0,99 ± 0,09), V30 (0,97 ± 0,09), VC2 (0,98 ± 0,11) e VC3 (1,00 ± 0,11). Pode-se concluir que a distância utilizada na determinação da VC interfere no valor obtido, independente da idade cronológica. A VC determinada com distâncias entre 50 e 400m pode ser utilizada na avaliação da capacidade aeróbia de crianças e adolescentes, substituindo os testes contínuos máximos com durações próximas a 20 ou 30 minutos.

Otimização de planos de manutenções de componentes de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica centrados em confiabilidade

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Five-Year Outcome of Catheter Ablation of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Using Termination of Atrial Fibrillation as a Procedural Endpoint.

BACKGROUND -This study aimed to determine five-year efficacy of catheter ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (PsAF) using AF termination as a procedural endpoint. METHODS AND RESULTS -150 patients (57±10 years) underwent PsAF ablation using a stepwise ablation approach (pulmonary vein isolation, electrogram-guided and linear ablation) with the desired procedural endpoint being AF termination. Repeat ablation was performed for recurrent AF or atrial tachycardia (AT). AF was terminated by ablation in 120 patients (80%). Arrhythmia-free survival rates after a single procedure were 35.3±3.9%, 28.0±3.7%, and 16.8±3.2% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Arrhythmia-free survival rates after the last procedure (mean 2.1±1.0 procedures) were 89.7±2.5%, 79.8±3.4%, and 62.9±4.5%, at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. During a median follow-up of 58 (IQR 43-73) months following the last ablation procedure, 97 of 150 (64.7%) patients remained in sinus rhythm without antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs). Another 14 (9.3%) patients maintained sinus rhythm after re-initiation of AADs, and an additional 15 (10.0%) patients regressed to paroxysmal recurrences only. Failure to terminate AF during the index procedure (HR 3.831; 95%CI: 2.070-7.143; p<0.001), left atrial diameter ≥50mm (HR 2.083; 95%CI: 1.078-4.016; p=0.03), continuous AF duration ≥18 months (HR 1.984; 95%CI: 1.024-3.846; p<0.04) and structural heart disease (HR 1.874; 95% CI: 1.037-3.388; p=0.04) predicted arrhythmia recurrence. CONCLUSIONS -In patients with PsAF, an ablation strategy aiming at AF termination is associated with freedom from arrhythmia recurrence in the majority of patients over a 5-year follow up period.Procedural AF non-termination and specific baseline factors predict long-term outcome after ablation.