Data mining for lifetime prediction of metallic components

The ability to accurately predict the lifetime of building components is crucial to optimizing building design, material selection and scheduling of required maintenance. This paper discusses a number of possible data mining methods that can be applied to do the lifetime prediction of metallic components and how different sources of service life information could be integrated to form the basis of the lifetime prediction model

The user query based learning system for lifetime prediction of metallic components

Real-World Data Mining Applications generally do not end up with the creation of the models. The use of the model is the final purpose especially in prediction tasks. The problem arises when the model is built based on much more information than that the user can provide in using the model. As a result, the performance of model reduces drastically due to many missing attributes values. This paper develops a new learning system framework, called as User Query Based Learning System (UQBLS), for building data mining models best suitable for users use. We demonstrate its deployment in a real-world application of the lifetime prediction of metallic components in buildings

Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.

Assessment of lifetime cumulative sun exposure using a self-administered questionnaire : reliability of two approaches

Few studies have evaluated the reliability of lifetime sun exposure estimated from inquiring about the number of hours people spent outdoors in a given period on a typical weekday or weekend day (the time-based approach). Some investigations have suggested that women have a particularly difficult task in estimating time outdoors in adulthood due to their family and occupational roles. We hypothesized that people might gain additional memory cues and estimate lifetime hours spent outdoors more reliably if asked about time spent outdoors according to specific activities (an activity-based approach). Using self-administered, mailed questionnaires, test-retest responses to time-based and to activity-based approaches were evaluated in 124 volunteer radiologic technologist participants from the United States: 64 females and 60 males 48 to 80 years of age. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to evaluate the test-retest reliability of average number of hours spent outdoors in the summer estimated for each approach. We tested the differences between the two ICCs, corresponding to each approach, using a t test with the variance of the difference estimated by the jackknife method. During childhood and adolescence, the two approaches gave similar ICCs for average numbers of hours spent outdoors in the summer. By contrast, compared with the time-based approach, the activity-based approach showed significantly higher ICCs during adult ages (0.69 versus 0.43, P = 0.003) and over the lifetime (0.69 versus 0.52, P = 0.05); the higher ICCs for the activity-based questionnaire were primarily derived from the results for females. Research is needed to further improve the activity-based questionnaire approach for long-term sun exposure assessment. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(2):464–71)

The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

Assessing the impacts of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive method

Background: Ultraviolet radiation exposure during an individuals' lifetime is a known risk factor for the development of skin cancer. However, less evidence is available on assessing the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Objectives: This study aims to assess the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive measure of exposure. Methods: We recruited 180 participants (73 males, 107 females) aged 18-83 years. Digital imaging of skin hyper-pigmentation (skin damage) and skin wrinkling (skin aging) on the facial region was measured. Lifetime sun exposure (presented as hours) was calculated from the participants' age multiplied by the estimated annual time outdoors for each year of life. We analyzed the effects of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging. We adjust for the influence of age, sex, occupation, history of skin cancer, eye color, hair color, and skin color. Results: There were non-linear relationships between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Younger participant's skin is much more sensitive to sun exposure than those who were over 50 years of age. As such, there were negative interactions between lifetime sun exposure and age. Age had linear effects on skin damage and skin aging. Conclusion: The data presented showed that self reported lifetime sun exposure was positively associated with skin damage and skin aging, in particular, the younger people. Future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to this group for skin cancer prevention messaging. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relation between charge carrier mobility and lifetime in organic photovoltaics

The relationship between charge carrier lifetime and mobility in a bulk heterojunction based organic solar cell, utilizing diketopyrrolopyrole- naphthalene co-polymer and PC71BM in the photoactive blend layer, is investigated using the photoinduced charge extraction by linearly increasing voltage technique. Light intensity, delay time, and temperature dependent experiments are used to quantify the charge carrier mobility and density as well as the temperature dependence of both. From the saturation of photoinduced current at high laser intensities, it is shown that Langevin-type bimolecular recombination is present in the studied system. The charge carrier lifetime, especially in Langevin systems, is discussed to be an ambiguous and unreliable parameter to determine the performance of organic solar cells, because of the dependence of charge carrier lifetime on charge carrier density, mobility, and type of recombination. It is revealed that the relation between charge mobility (μ) and lifetime (τ) is inversely proportional, where the μτ product is independent of temperature. The results indicate that in photovoltaic systems with Langevin type bimolecular recombination, the strategies to increase the charge lifetime might not be beneficial because of an accompanying reduction in charge carrier mobility. Instead, the focus on non-Langevin mechanisms of recombination is crucial, because this allows an increase in the charge extraction rate by improving the carrier lifetime, density, and mobility simultaneously. © 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

Enhanced electron lifetime of CdSe/CdS quantum dot (QD) sensitized solar cells using ZnSe core–shell structure with efficient regeneration of quantum Ddots

Research on development of efficient passivation materials for high performance and stable quantum dot sensitized solar cells (QDSCs) is highly important. While ZnS is one of the most widely used passivation material in QDSCs, an alternative material based on ZnSe which was deposited on CdS/CdSe/TiO2 photoanode to form a semi-core/shell structure has been found to be more efficient in terms of reducing electron recombination in QDSCs in this work. It has been found that the solar cell efficiency was improved from 1.86% for ZnSe0 (without coating) to 3.99% using 2 layers of ZnSe coating (ZnSe2) deposited by successive ionic layer adsorption and reaction (SILAR) method. The short circuit current density (Jsc) increased nearly 1-fold (from 7.25 mA/cm2 to13.4 mA/cm2), and the open circuit voltage (Voc) was enhanced by 100 mV using ZnSe2 passivation layer compared to ZnSe0. Studies on the light harvesting efficiency (ηLHE) and the absorbed photon-to-current conversion efficiency (APCE) have revealed that the ZnSe coating layer caused the enhanced ηLHE at wavelength beyond 500 nm and a significant increase of the APCE over the spectrum 400−550 nm. A nearly 100% APCE was obtained with ZnSe2, indicating the excellent charge injection and collection process in the device. The investigation on charge transport and recombination of the device has indicated that the enhanced electron collection efficiency and reduced electron recombination should be responsible for the improved Jsc and Voc of the QDSCs. The effective electron lifetime of the device with ZnSe2 was nearly 6 times higher than ZnSe0 while the electron diffusion coefficient was largely unaffected by the coating. Study on the regeneration of QDs after photoinduced excitation has indicated that the hole transport from QDs to the reduced species (S2−) in electrolyte was very efficient even when the QDs were coated with a thick ZnSe shell (three layers). For comparison, ZnS coated CdS/CdSe sensitized solar cell with optimum shell thickness was also fabricated, which generated a lower energy conversion efficiency (η = 3.43%) than the ZnSe based QDSC counterpart due to a lower Voc and FF. This study suggests that ZnSe may be a more efficient passivation layer than ZnS, which is attributed to the type II energy band alignment of the core (CdS/CdSe quantum dots) and passivation shell (ZnSe) structure, leading to more efficient electron−hole separation and slower electron recombination.

Minority-Carrier Lifetime In Polycrystalline Semiconductors

A model is described for grain boundary recombination in polycrystalline semiconductors. This model enables the evaluation of minority carrier lifetime in these materials. Es vvird ein Modell fur die Korngrenzenrekombination in polykristallinen Halbleitern beschrieben. Das Modell ermoglicht die Bestimmung der Minoritiitsladungstragerlebensdauer in diesen Materialien.