Adaptability, Transformation and Complex Changes in Namibia and Tanzania: Resilience and Innovation System Development in Local Communities

This thesis is a research about the recent complex spatial changes in Namibia and Tanzania and local communities’ capacity to cope with, adapt to and transform the unpredictability engaged to these processes. I scrutinise the concept of resilience and its potential application to explaining the development of local communities in Southern Africa when facing various social, economic and environmental changes. My research is based on three distinct but overlapping research questions: what are the main spatial changes and their impact on the study areas in Namibia and Tanzania? What are the adaptation, transformation and resilience processes of the studied local communities in Namibia and Tanzania? How are innovation systems developed, and what is their impact on the resilience of the studied local communities in Namibia and Tanzania? I use four ethnographic case studies concerning environmental change, global tourism and innovation system development in Namibia and Tanzania, as well as mixed-methodological approaches, to study these issues. The results of my empirical investigation demonstrate that the spatial changes in the localities within Namibia and Tanzania are unique, loose assemblages, a result of the complex, multisided, relational and evolutional development of human and non-human elements that do not necessarily have linear causalities. Several changes co-exist and are interconnected though uncertain and unstructured and, together with the multiple stressors related to poverty, have made communities more vulnerable to different changes. The communities’ adaptation and transformation measures have been mostly reactive, based on contingency and post hoc learning. Despite various anticipation techniques, coping measures, adaptive learning and self-organisation processes occurring in the localities, the local communities are constrained by their uneven power relationships within the larger assemblages. Thus, communities’ own opportunities to increase their resilience are limited without changing the relations in these multiform entities. Therefore, larger cooperation models are needed, like an innovation system, based on the interactions of different actors to foster cooperation, which require collaboration among and input from a diverse set of stakeholders to combine different sources of knowledge, innovation and learning. Accordingly, both Namibia and Tanzania are developing an innovation system as their key policy to foster transformation towards knowledge-based societies. Finally, the development of an innovation system needs novel bottom-up approaches to increase the resilience of local communities and embed it into local communities. Therefore, innovation policies in Namibia have emphasised the role of indigenous knowledge, and Tanzania has established the Living Lab network.

Participant characteristics associated with greater reductions in waist circumference during a four-month, pedometer-based, workplace health program

BACKGROUND: Workplace health programs have demonstrated improvements in a number of risk factors for chronic disease. However, there has been little investigation of participant characteristics that may be associated with change in risk factors during such programs. The aim of this paper is to identify participant characteristics associated with improved waist circumference (WC) following participation in a four-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace health program.

METHODS: 762 adults employed in primarily sedentary occupations and voluntarily enrolled in a four-month workplace program aimed at increasing physical activity were recruited from ten Australian worksites in 2008. Seventy-nine percent returned at the end of the health program. Data included demographic, behavioural, anthropometric and biomedical measurements. WC change (before versus after) was assessed by multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses. Seven groupings of potential associated variables from baseline were sequentially added to build progressively larger regression models.

RESULTS: Greater improvement in WC during the program was associated with having completed tertiary education, consuming two or less standard alcoholic beverages in one occasion in the twelve months prior to baseline, undertaking less baseline weekend sitting time and lower baseline total cholesterol. A greater WC at baseline was strongly associated with a greater improvement in WC. A sub-analysis in participants with a 'high-risk' baseline WC revealed that younger age, enrolling for reasons other than appearance, undertaking less weekend sitting time at baseline, eating two or more pieces of fruit per day at baseline, higher baseline physical functioning and lower baseline body mass index were associated with greater odds of moving to 'low risk' WC at the end of the program.

CONCLUSIONS: While employees with 'high-risk' WC at baseline experienced the greatest improvements in WC, the other variables associated with greater WC improvement were generally indicators of better baseline health. These results indicate that employees who started with better health, potentially due to lifestyle or recent behavioural changes, were more likely to respond positively to the program. Future health program initiators should think innovatively to encourage all enrolees along the health spectrum to achieve a successful outcome.

Demography of a deep-sea lantern shark (Etmopterus spinax) caught in trawl fisheries of the northeastern Atlantic: Application of Leslie matrices with incorporated uncertainties

The deep-sea lantern shark Etmopterus spinax occurs in the northeast Atlantic on or near the bottoms of the outer continental shelves and slopes, and is regularly captured as bycatch in deep-water commercial fisheries. Given the lack of knowledge on the impacts of fisheries on this species, a demographic analysis using age-based Leslie matrices was carried out. Given the uncertainties in the mortality estimates and in the available life history parameters, several different scenarios, some incorporating stochasticity in the life history parameters (using Monte Carlo simulation), were analyzed. If only natural mortality were considered, even after introducing uncertainties in all parameters, the estimated population growth rate (A) suggested an increasing population. However, if fishing mortality from trawl fisheries is considered, the estimates of A either indicated increasing or declining populations. In these latter cases, the uncertainties in the species reproductive cycle seemed to be particularly relevant, as a 2-year reproductive cycle indicated a stable population, while a longer (3-year cycle) indicated a declining population. The estimated matrix elasticities were in general higher for the survivorship parameters of the younger age classes and tended to decrease for the older ages. This highlights the susceptibility of this deep-sea squaloid to increasing fishing mortality, emphasizing that even though this is a small-sized species, it shows population dynamics patterns more typical of the larger-sized and in general more vulnerable species. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hotshots, hot spots, and female preference: exploring lek formation models with a bower-building cichlid fish

In many animals, males congregate in leks that females visit for the sole purpose of mating. We observed male and female behavior on 3 different-sized leks of the bower-building cichlid fish Nyassachromis cf. microcephalus to test predictions of 3 prominent lek models: the "hotshot," "hot spot," and "female preference" models. In this system, we were able to refine these predictions by distinguishing between indirect mate choice, by which females restrict their set of potential mates in the absence of individual male assessment, and direct mate choice, by which females assess males and their territories through dyadic behavioral interactions. On no lek were males holding central territories favored by indirect or direct mate choice, contrary to the prediction of the hotshot model that leks form because inferior males establish territories surrounding hotshot males preferred by females. Average female encounter rate of males increased with lek size, a pattern typically interpreted as evidence that leks form through female preference for lekking males, rather than because males congregate in hot spots of high female density. Female propensity to engage in premating behavior once courted did not increase with lek size, suggesting female preference for males on larger leks operated through indirect choice rather than direct choice based on individual assessment. The frequency of male-male competitive interactions increased with lek size, whereas their foraging rate decreased, implying a cost to males maintaining territories on larger leks. Together these data most strongly support the female preference model, where females may benefit through indirect mate choice for males able to meet the competitive cost of occupying larger leks.

Surface growth for molten silicon infiltration into carbon millimeter-sized channels: Lattice–Boltzmann simulations, experiments and models

The process of liquid silicon infiltration is investigated for channels with radii from 0.25 to 0.75 [mm] drilled in compact carbon preforms. The advantage of this setup is that the study of the phenomenon results to be simplified. For comparison purposes, attempts are made in order to work out a framework for evaluating the accuracy of simulations. The approach relies on dimensionless numbers involving the properties of the surface reaction. It turns out that complex hydrodynamic behavior derived from second Newton law can be made consistent with Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. The experiments give clear evidence that the growth of silicon carbide proceeds in two different stages and basic mechanisms are highlighted. Lattice-Boltzmann simulations prove to be an effective tool for the description of the growing phase. Namely, essential experimental constraints can be implemented. As a result, the existing models are useful to gain more insight on the process of reactive infiltration into porous media in the first stage of penetration, i.e. up to pore closure because of surface growth. A way allowing to implement the resistance from chemical reaction in Darcy law is also proposed.

Predicting loss and fragmentation of habitat of the vulnerable subtropical rainforest tree Macadamia integrifolia with models developed from compiled ecological data

Habitat models are widely used in ecology, however there are relatively few studies of rare species, primarily because of a paucity of survey records and lack of robust means of assessing accuracy of modelled spatial predictions. We investigated the potential of compiled ecological data in developing habitat models for Macadamia integrifolia, a vulnerable mid-stratum tree endemic to lowland subtropical rainforests of southeast Queensland, Australia. We compared performance of two binomial models—Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Generalised Additive Models (GAM)—with Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models developed from (i) presence records and available absence data and (ii) developed using presence records and background data. The GAM model was the best performer across the range of evaluation measures employed, however all models were assessed as potentially useful for informing in situ conservation of M. integrifolia, A significant loss in the amount of M. integrifolia habitat has occurred (p < 0.05), with only 37% of former habitat (pre-clearing) remaining in 2003. Remnant patches are significantly smaller, have larger edge-to-area ratios and are more isolated from each other compared to pre-clearing configurations (p < 0.05). Whilst the network of suitable habitat patches is still largely intact, there are numerous smaller patches that are more isolated in the contemporary landscape compared with their connectedness before clearing. These results suggest that in situ conservation of M. integrifolia may be best achieved through a landscape approach that considers the relative contribution of small remnant habitat fragments to the species as a whole, as facilitating connectivity among the entire network of habitat patches.

Heavy vehicle suspensions : testing and analysis

Transport regulators consider that, with respect to pavement damage, heavy vehicles (HVs) are the riskiest vehicles on the road network. That HV suspension design contributes to road and bridge damage has been recognised for some decades. This thesis deals with some aspects of HV suspension characteristics, particularly (but not exclusively) air suspensions. This is in the areas of developing low-cost in-service heavy vehicle (HV) suspension testing, the effects of larger-than-industry-standard longitudinal air lines and the characteristics of on-board mass (OBM) systems for HVs. All these areas, whilst seemingly disparate, seek to inform the management of HVs, reduce of their impact on the network asset and/or provide a measurement mechanism for worn HV suspensions. A number of project management groups at the State and National level in Australia have been, and will be, presented with the results of the project that resulted in this thesis. This should serve to inform their activities applicable to this research. A number of HVs were tested for various characteristics. These tests were used to form a number of conclusions about HV suspension behaviours. Wheel forces from road test data were analysed. A “novel roughness” measure was developed and applied to the road test data to determine dynamic load sharing, amongst other research outcomes. Further, it was proposed that this approach could inform future development of pavement models incorporating roughness and peak wheel forces. Left/right variations in wheel forces and wheel force variations for different speeds were also presented. This led on to some conclusions regarding suspension and wheel force frequencies, their transmission to the pavement and repetitive wheel loads in the spatial domain. An improved method of determining dynamic load sharing was developed and presented. It used the correlation coefficient between two elements of a HV to determine dynamic load sharing. This was validated against a mature dynamic loadsharing metric, the dynamic load sharing coefficient (de Pont, 1997). This was the first time that the technique of measuring correlation between elements on a HV has been used for a test case vs. a control case for two different sized air lines. That dynamic load sharing was improved at the air springs was shown for the test case of the large longitudinal air lines. The statistically significant improvement in dynamic load sharing at the air springs from larger longitudinal air lines varied from approximately 30 percent to 80 percent. Dynamic load sharing at the wheels was improved only for low air line flow events for the test case of larger longitudinal air lines. Statistically significant improvements to some suspension metrics across the range of test speeds and “novel roughness” values were evident from the use of larger longitudinal air lines, but these were not uniform. Of note were improvements to suspension metrics involving peak dynamic forces ranging from below the error margin to approximately 24 percent. Abstract models of HV suspensions were developed from the results of some of the tests. Those models were used to propose further development of, and future directions of research into, further gains in HV dynamic load sharing. This was from alterations to currently available damping characteristics combined with implementation of large longitudinal air lines. In-service testing of HV suspensions was found to be possible within a documented range from below the error margin to an error of approximately 16 percent. These results were in comparison with either the manufacturer’s certified data or test results replicating the Australian standard for “road-friendly” HV suspensions, Vehicle Standards Bulletin 11. OBM accuracy testing and development of tamper evidence from OBM data were detailed for over 2000 individual data points across twelve test and control OBM systems from eight suppliers installed on eleven HVs. The results indicated that 95 percent of contemporary OBM systems available in Australia are accurate to +/- 500 kg. The total variation in OBM linearity, after three outliers in the data were removed, was 0.5 percent. A tamper indicator and other OBM metrics that could be used by jurisdictions to determine tamper events were developed and documented. That OBM systems could be used as one vector for in-service testing of HV suspensions was one of a number of synergies between the seemingly disparate streams of this project.

GVS : A flexible, low-end, 3D visualisation framework for enhancing conceptual groundwater models for community, management and simulations

In this paper we discuss an advanced, 3D groundwater visualisation and animation system that allows scientists, government agencies and community groups to better understand the groundwater processes that effect community planning and decision-making. The system is unique in that it has been designed to optimise community engagement. Although it incorporates a powerful visualisation engine, this open-source system can be freely distributed and boasts a simple user interface allowing individuals to run and investigate the models on their own PCs and gain intimate knowledge of the groundwater systems. The initial version of the Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS v1.0), was developed from a coastal delta setting (Bundaberg, QLD), and then applied to a basalt catchment area (Obi Obi Creek, Maleny, QLD). Several major enhancements have been developed to produce higher quality visualisations, including display of more types of data, support for larger models and improved user interaction. The graphics and animation capabilities have also been enhanced, notably the display of boreholes, depth logs and time-series water level surfaces. The GVS software remains under continual development and improvement

Rural activity spaces and transport disadvantage : qualitative analysis of quantitative models integrating time and space

Current knowledge about the relationship between transport disadvantage and activity space size is limited to urban areas, and as a result, very little is known to date about this link in a rural context. In addition, although research has identified transport disadvantaged groups based on their size of activity spaces, these studies have, however, not empirically explained such differences and the result is often a poor identification of the problems facing disadvantaged groups. Research has shown that transport disadvantage varies over time. The static nature of analysis using the activity space concept in previous research studies has lacked the ability to identify transport disadvantage in time. Activity space is a dynamic concept; and therefore possesses a great potential in capturing temporal variations in behaviour and access opportunities. This research derives measures of the size and fullness of activity spaces for 157 individuals for weekdays, weekends, and for a week using weekly activity-travel diary data from three case study areas located in rural Northern Ireland. Four focus groups were also conducted in order to triangulate the quantitative findings and to explain the differences between different socio-spatial groups. The findings of this research show that despite having a smaller sized activity space, individuals were not disadvantaged because they were able to access their required activities locally. Car-ownership was found to be an important life line in rural areas. Temporal disaggregation of the data reveals that this is true only on weekends due to a lack of public transport services. In addition, despite activity spaces being at a similar size, the fullness of activity spaces of low-income individuals was found to be significantly lower compared to their high-income counterparts. Focus group data shows that financial constraint, poor connections both between public transport services and between transport routes and opportunities forced individuals to participate in activities located along the main transport corridors.

Probability distributed time delays: integrating spatial effects into temporal models

Background In order to provide insights into the complex biochemical processes inside a cell, modelling approaches must find a balance between achieving an adequate representation of the physical phenomena and keeping the associated computational cost within reasonable limits. This issue is particularly stressed when spatial inhomogeneities have a significant effect on system's behaviour. In such cases, a spatially-resolved stochastic method can better portray the biological reality, but the corresponding computer simulations can in turn be prohibitively expensive. Results We present a method that incorporates spatial information by means of tailored, probability distributed time-delays. These distributions can be directly obtained by single in silico or a suitable set of in vitro experiments and are subsequently fed into a delay stochastic simulation algorithm (DSSA), achieving a good compromise between computational costs and a much more accurate representation of spatial processes such as molecular diffusion and translocation between cell compartments. Additionally, we present a novel alternative approach based on delay differential equations (DDE) that can be used in scenarios of high molecular concentrations and low noise propagation. Conclusions Our proposed methodologies accurately capture and incorporate certain spatial processes into temporal stochastic and deterministic simulations, increasing their accuracy at low computational costs. This is of particular importance given that time spans of cellular processes are generally larger (possibly by several orders of magnitude) than those achievable by current spatially-resolved stochastic simulators. Hence, our methodology allows users to explore cellular scenarios under the effects of diffusion and stochasticity in time spans that were, until now, simply unfeasible. Our methodologies are supported by theoretical considerations on the different modelling regimes, i.e. spatial vs. delay-temporal, as indicated by the corresponding Master Equations and presented elsewhere.

Correlations between designability and various structural characteristics of protein lattice models

Using six kinds of lattice types (4×4 ,5×5 , and6×6 square lattices;3×3×3 cubic lattice; and2+3+4+3+2 and4+5+6+5+4 triangular lattices), three different size alphabets (HP ,HNUP , and 20 letters), and two energy functions, the designability of proteinstructures is calculated based on random samplings of structures and common biased sampling (CBS) of proteinsequence space. Then three quantities stability (average energy gap),foldability, and partnum of the structure, which are defined to elucidate the designability, are calculated. The authors find that whatever the type of lattice, alphabet size, and energy function used, there will be an emergence of highly designable (preferred) structure. For all cases considered, the local interactions reduce degeneracy and make the designability higher. The designability is sensitive to the lattice type, alphabet size, energy function, and sampling method of the sequence space. Compared with the random sampling method, both the CBS and the Metropolis Monte Carlo sampling methods make the designability higher. The correlation coefficients between the designability, stability, and foldability are mostly larger than 0.5, which demonstrate that they have strong correlation relationship. But the correlation relationship between the designability and the partnum is not so strong because the partnum is independent of the energy. The results are useful in practical use of the designability principle, such as to predict the proteintertiary structure.

Tissue engineering bone - reconstruction of critical sized segmental bone defects in a large animal model

Currently, well established clinical therapeutic approaches for bone reconstruction are restricted to the transplantation of autografts and allografts, and the implantation of metal devices or ceramic-based implants to assist bone regeneration. Bone grafts possess osteoconductive and osteoinductive properties, their application, however, is associated with disadvantages. These include limited access and availability, donor site morbidity and haemorrhage, increased risk of infection, and insufficient transplant integration. As a result, recent research focuses on the development of complementary therapeutic concepts. The field of tissue engineering has emerged as an important alternative approach to bone regeneration. Tissue engineering unites aspects of cellular biology, biomechanical engineering, biomaterial sciences and trauma and orthopaedic surgery. To obtain approval by regulatory bodies for these novel therapeutic concepts the level of therapeutic benefit must be demonstrated rigorously in well characterized, clinically relevant animal models. Therefore, in this PhD project, a reproducible and clinically relevant, ovine, critically sized, high load bearing, tibial defect model was established and characterized as a prerequisite to assess the regenerative potential of a novel treatment concept in vivo involving a medical grade polycaprolactone and tricalciumphosphate based composite scaffold and recombinant human bone morphogenetic proteins.

Power relations and small and medium-sized enterprise strategies for capturing value in global production networks: visual effects (VFX) service firm in the Hollywood film industry

Power relations and small and medium-sized enterprise strategies for capturing value in global production networks: visual effects (VFX) service firms in the Hollywood film industry, Regional Studies. This paper provides insights into the way in which non-lead firms manoeuvre in global value chains in the pursuit of a larger share of revenue and how power relations affect these manoeuvres. It examines the nature of value capture and power relations in the global supply of visual effects (VFX) services and the range of strategies VFX firms adopt to capture higher value in the global value chain. The analysis is based on a total of thirty-six interviews with informants in the industry in Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada, and a database of VFX credits for 3323 visual products for 640 VFX firms.

Explaining internationalisation of small to medium sized enterprises within the Queensland food and beverage industry

The prevalence of International New Ventures (INVs) has increased during the past twenty years. Nevertheless, to date there has been no general consensus within the literature on an explanation as to the rapid internationalisation of some firms. Do they follow a similar process to other firms that internationalise based on a more ‘measured’ incremental sequential process of internationalisation. This paper proposes and tests an innovation diffusion model of the internationalisation of small firm INVs and others by drawing on key innovation diffusion models from the literature. The results of this analysis indicate that the synthesised model of export adoption is effective in explaining the internationalisation process of INVs and other firms within the Queensland Food and Beverage Industry. Significantly, the features of the original innovation diffusion models developed in the consumer behaviour literature, which had limited examination within the internationalisation literature, were confirmed. This includes the ability of firms, or specifically decision-makers, to skip stages based on previous experience.

Designing Innovative Business Models : A Design Catalyst Learning Resource

The term Design Led Innovation is emerging as a fundamental business process, which is rapidly being adopted by large as well as small to medium sized firms. The value that design brings to an organisation is a different way of thinking, of framing situations and possibilities, doing things and tackling problems: essentially a cultural transformation of the way the firm undertakes its business. Being Design Led is increasingly being seen by business as a driver of company growth, allowing firms to provide a strong point of difference to its stakeholders. Achieving this Design Led process, requires strong leadership to enable the organisation to develop a clear vision for top line growth. Specifically, based on deep customer insights and expanded through customer and stakeholder engagements, the outcomes of which are then adopted by all aspects of the business. To achieve this goal, several tools and processes are available, which need to be linked to new organisational capabilities within a business transformation context. The Design Led Innovation Team focuses on embedding tools and processes within an organisation and matching this with design leadership qualities to enable companies to create breakthrough innovation and achieve sustained growth, through ultimately transforming their business model. As all information for these case studies was derived from publicly accessed data, this resource is not intended to be used as reference material, but rather is a learning tool for designers to begin to consider and explore businesses at a strategic level. It is not the results that are key, but rather the process and philosophies that were used to create these case studies and disseminate this way of thinking amongst the design community. It is this process of unpacking a business guided by the framework of Osterwalder’s Business Model Canvas* which provides an important tool for designers to gain a greater perspective of a company’s true innovation potential.