Characterization of the variable cow's age at last calving as a measurement of longevity by using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox model

In most studies on beef cattle longevity, only the cows reaching a given number of calvings by a specific age are considered in the analyses. With the aim of evaluating all cows with productive life in herds, taking into consideration the different forms of management on each farm, it was proposed to measure cow longevity from age at last calving (ALC), that is, the most recent calving registered in the files. The objective was to characterize this trait in order to study the longevity of Nellore cattle, using the Kaplan-Meier estimators and the Cox model. The covariables and class effects considered in the models were age at first calving (AFC), year and season of birth of the cow and farm. The variable studied (ALC) was classified as presenting complete information (uncensored = 1) or incomplete information (censored = 0), using the criterion of the difference between the date of each cow's last calving and the date of the latest calving at each farm. If this difference was >36 months, the cow was considered to have failed. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The records of 11 791 animals from 22 farms within the Nellore Breed Genetic Improvement Program ('Nellore Brazil') were used. In the estimation process using the Kaplan-Meier model, the variable of AFC was classified into three age groups. In individual analyses, the log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test in the Kaplan-Meier model showed that all covariables and class effects had significant effects (P < 0.05) on ALC. In the analysis considering all covariables and class effects, using the Wald test in the Cox model, only the season of birth of the cow was not significant for ALC (P > 0.05). This analysis indicated that each month added to AFC diminished the risk of the cow's failure in the herd by 2%. Nonetheless, this does not imply that animals with younger AFC had less profitability. Cows with greater numbers of calvings were more precocious than those with fewer calvings. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2012.

A Cohort Study of Caries Incidence and Baseline Socioeconomic, Clinical and Demographic Variables: A Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Factors determining disease duration in Alzheimer's disease:a postmortem study of 103 cases using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression

Factors associated with duration of dementia in a consecutive series of 103 Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases were studied using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression analysis (proportional hazard model). Mean disease duration was 7.1 years (range: 6 weeks-30 years, standard deviation = 5.18); 25% of cases died within four years, 50% within 6.9 years, and 75% within 10 years. Familial AD cases (FAD) had a longer duration than sporadic cases (SAD), especially cases linked to presenilin (PSEN) genes. No significant differences in duration were associated with age, sex, or apolipoprotein E (Apo E) genotype. Duration was reduced in cases with arterial hypertension. Cox regression analysis suggested longer duration was associated with an earlier disease onset and increased senile plaque (SP) and neurofibrillary tangle (NFT) pathology in the orbital gyrus (OrG), CA1 sector of the hippocampus, and nucleus basalis of Meynert (NBM). The data suggest shorter disease duration in SAD and in cases with hypertensive comorbidity. In addition, degree of neuropathology did not influence survival, but spread of SP/NFT pathology into the frontal lobe, hippocampus, and basal forebrain was associated with longer disease duration. © 2014 R. A. Armstrong.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Condition-based prognosis of machine health

Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.

Methods and preliminary results for a data linkage project to determine long-term survival after intensive care unit admission

Aims: To describe a local data linkage project to match hospital data with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) National Death Index (NDI) to assess longterm outcomes of intensive care unit patients. Methods: Data were obtained from hospital intensive care and cardiac surgery databases on all patients aged 18 years and over admitted to either of two intensive care units at a tertiary-referral hospital between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 2005. Date of death was obtained from the AIHW NDI by probabilistic software matching, in addition to manual checking through hospital databases and other sources. Survival was calculated from time of ICU admission, with a censoring date of 14 February 2007. Data for patients with multiple hospital admissions requiring intensive care were analysed only from the first admission. Summary and descriptive statistics were used for preliminary data analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to analyse factors determining long-term survival. Results: During the study period, 21 415 unique patients had 22 552 hospital admissions that included an ICU admission; 19 058 surgical procedures were performed with a total of 20 092 ICU admissions. There were 4936 deaths. Median follow-up was 6.2 years, totalling 134 203 patient years. The casemix was predominantly cardiac surgery (80%), followed by cardiac medical (6%), and other medical (4%). The unadjusted survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 97%, 84% and 70%, respectively. The 1-year survival ranged from 97% for cardiac surgery to 36% for cardiac arrest. An APACHE II score was available for 16 877 patients. In those discharged alive from hospital, the 1, 5 and 10-year survival varied with discharge location. Conclusions: ICU-based linkage projects are feasible to determine long-term outcomes of ICU patients

Patterns, correlates, and prognostic significance of quality of life following breast cancer

Objective To describe quality of life (QOL) over a 12-month period among women with breast cancer, consider the association between QOL and overall survival (OS), and explore characteristics associated with QOL declines. Methods A population-based sample of Australian women (n=287) with invasive, unilateral breast cancer (Stage I+), was observed prospectively for a median of 6.6 years. QOL was assessed at six, 12 and 18 months post-diagnosis, using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy, Breast (FACT-B+4) questionnaire. Raw scores for the FACT-B+4 and subscales were computed and individuals were categorized according to whether QOL declined, remained stable or improved between six and 18 months. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards survival methods were used to estimate OS and its associations with QOL. Logistic regression models identified factors associated with QOL decline. Results Within FACT-B+4 sub-scales, between 10% and 23% of women showed declines in QOL. Following adjustment for established prognostic factors, emotional wellbeing and FACT-B+4 scores at six months post-diagnosis were associated with OS (p<0.05). Declines in physical (p<0.01) or functional (p=0.02) well-being between six and 18 months post-diagnosis were also associated significantly with OS. Receiving multiple forms of adjuvant treatment, a perception of not handling stress well and reporting one or more other major life events at six months post-diagnosis were factors associated with declines in QOL in multivariable analyses. Conclusions Interventions targeted at preventing QOL declines may ultimately improve quantity as well as quality of life following breast cancer.

The concentric all-polyethylene Exeter acetabular component in primary total hip replacement

We report the long term outcome of the flangeless, cemented all polyethylene Exeter cup at a mean of 14.6 years (range 10-17) after operation. Of the 263 hips in 243 patients, 122 hips are still in situ, 112 patients (119 hips) have died, eighteen hips were revised, and three patients (four hips) had moved abroad and were lost to follow-up (1.5%). Radiographs demonstrated two sockets had migrated and six more had radiolucent lines in all three zones. The Kaplan Meier survivorship at 15 years with endpoint revision for all causes is 89.9% (95% CI 84.6 to 95.2%) and for aseptic cup loosening or lysis 91.7% (CI 86.6 to 96.8%). In 210 hips with a diagnosis of primary osteoarthritis survivorship for all causes is 93.2% (95% CI 88.1 to 98.3%), and for aseptic cup loosening 95.0% (CI 90.3 to 99.7%). The cemented all polyethylene Exeter cup has an excellent long-term survivorship.

Identification of factors contributing to recurrence of venous leg ulcers

Background and Significance Venous leg ulcers are a significant cause of chronic ill-health for 1–3% of those aged over 60 years, increasing in incidence with age. The condition is difficult and costly to heal, consuming 1–2.5% of total health budgets in developed countries and up to 50% of community nursing time. Unfortunately after healing, there is a recurrence rate of 60 to 70%, frequently within the first 12 months after heaing. Although some risk factors associated with higher recurrence rates have been identified (e.g. prolonged ulcer duration, deep vein thrombosis), in general there is limited evidence on treatments to effectively prevent recurrence. Patients are generally advised to undertake activities which aim to improve the impaired venous return (e.g. compression therapy, leg elevation, exercise). However, only compression therapy has some evidence to support its effectiveness in prevention and problems with adherence to this strategy are well documented. Aim The aim of this research was to identify factors associated with recurrence by determining relationships between recurrence and demographic factors, health, physical activity, psychosocial factors and self-care activities to prevent recurrence. Methods Two studies were undertaken: a retrospective study of participants diagnosed with a venous leg ulcer which healed 12 to 36 months prior to the study (n=122); and a prospective longitudinal study of participants recruited as their ulcer healed and data collected for 12 months following healing (n=80). Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history and ulcer history and treatments; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, psychosocial measures, ulcer history, compression and other self-care activities. Follow-up data for the prospective study were collected every three months for 12 months after healing. For the retrospective study, a logistic regression model determined the independent influences of variables on recurrence. For the prospective study, median time to recurrence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and a Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders and determine effects of preventive strategies and psychosocial factors on recurrence. Results In total, 68% of participants in the retrospective study and 44% of participants in the prospective study suffered a recurrence. After mutual adjustment for all variables in multivariable regression models, leg elevation, compression therapy, self efficacy and physical activity were found to be consistently related to recurrence in both studies. In the retrospective study, leg elevation, wearing Class 2 or 3 compression hosiery, the level of physical activity, cardiac disease and self efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with recurrence. The model was significant (p <0.001); with a R2 equivalent of 0.62. Examination of relationships between psychosocial factors and adherence to wearing compression hosiery found wearing compression hosiery was significantly positively associated with participants’ knowledge of the cause of their condition (p=0.002), higher self-efficacy scores (p=0.026) and lower depression scores (p=0.009). Analysis of data from the prospective study found there were 35 recurrences (44%) in the 12 months following healing and median time to recurrence was 27 weeks. After adjustment for potential confounders, a Cox proportional hazards regression model found that at least an hour/day of leg elevation, six or more days/week in Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, higher social support scale scores and higher General Self-Efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with a lower risk of recurrence, while male gender and a history of DVT remained significant risk factors for recurrence. Overall the model was significant (p <0.001); with an R2 equivalent 0.72. Conclusions The high rates of recurrence found in the studies highlight the urgent need for further information in this area to support development of effective strategies for prevention. Overall, results indicate leg elevation, physical activity, compression hosiery and strategies to improve self-efficacy are likely to prevent recurrence. In addition, optimal management of depression and strategies to improve patient knowledge and self-efficacy may positively influence adherence to compression therapy. This research provides important information for development of strategies to prevent recurrence of venous leg ulcers, with the potential to improve health and decrease health care costs in this population.

Long term immunity to live attenuated Japanese encephalitis chimeric virus vaccine : randomized, double-blind, 5-year phase II study in healthy adults.

In a randomized, double-blind study, 202 healthy adults were randomized to receive a live, attenuated Japanese encephalitis chimeric virus vaccine (JE-CV) and placebo 28 days apart in a cross-over design. A subgroup of 98 volunteers received a JE-CV booster at month 6. Safety, immunogenicity, and persistence of antibodies to month 60 were evaluated. There were no unexpected adverse events (AEs) and the incidence of AEs between JE-CV and placebo were similar. There were three serious adverse events (SAE) and no deaths. A moderately severe case of acute viral illness commencing 39 days after placebo administration was the only SAE considered possibly related to immunization. 99% of vaccine recipients achieved a seroprotective antibody titer ≥ 10 to JE-CV 28 days following the single dose of JE-CV, and 97% were seroprotected at month 6. Kaplan Meier analysis showed that after a single dose of JE-CV, 87% of the participants who were seroprotected at month 6 were still protected at month 60. This rate was 96% among those who received a booster immunization at month 6. 95% of subjects developed a neutralizing titer ≥ 10 against at least three of the four strains of a panel of wild-type Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strains on day 28 after immunization. At month 60, that proportion was 65% for participants who received a single dose of JE-CV and 75% for the booster group. These results suggest that JE-CV is safe, well tolerated and that a single dose provides long-lasting immunity to wild-type strains

Relationships between preventive activities, psychosocial factors and recurrence of venous leg ulcers : a prospective study

Aim To identify relationships between preventive activities, psychosocial factors and leg ulcer recurrence in patients with chronic venous leg ulcers. Background Chronic venous leg ulcers are slow to heal and frequently recur, resulting in years of suffering and intensive use of health care resources. Methods A prospective longitudinal study was undertaken with a sample of 80 patients with a venous leg ulcer recruited when their ulcer healed. Data were collected from 2006–2009 from medical records on demographics, medical history and ulcer history; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, preventive activities and psychosocial measures. Follow-up data were collected via questionnaires every three months for 12 months after healing. Median time to recurrence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders and determine effects of preventive strategies and psychosocial factors on recurrence. Results: There were 35 recurrences in a sample of 80 participants. Median time to recurrence was 27 weeks. After adjustment for potential confounders, a Cox proportional hazards regression model found that at least an hour/day of leg elevation, six or more days/week in Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, higher social support scale scores and higher General Self-Efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with a lower risk of recurrence, while male gender and a history of DVT remained significant risk factors for recurrence. Conclusion Results indicate that leg elevation, compression hosiery, high levels of self-efficacy and strong social support will help prevent recurrence.

Acetabular impaction grafting in total hip replacement

Background and purpose: Acetabular impaction grafting has been shown to have excellent results, but concerns regarding its suitability for larger defects have been highlighted. We report the use of this technique in a large cohort of patients with the aim of better understanding the limitations of the technique. Methods: We investigated a consecutive group of 339 cases of impaction grafting of the cup with morcellised impacted allograft bone for survivorship and mechanisms for early failure. Results: Kaplan Meier survival was 89.1% (95% CI 83.2 to 95.0%) at 5.8 years for revision for any reason, and 91.6% (95% CI 85.9 to 97.3%) for revision for aseptic loosening of the cup. Of the 15 cases revised for aseptic cup loosening, nine were large rim mesh reconstructions, two were fractured Kerboull-Postel plates, two were migrating cages, one medial wall mesh failure and one impaction alone failed. Interpretation: In our series, results were disappointing where a large rim mesh or significant reconstruction was required. In light of these results, our technique has changed in that we now use predominantly larger chips of purely cancellous bone, 8-10 mm3 in size, to fill the cavity and larger diameter cups to better fill the mouth of the reconstructed acetabulum. In addition we now make greater use of i) implants made of a highly porous in-growth surface to constrain allograft chips and ii) bulk allografts combined with cages and morcellised chips in cases with very large segmental and cavitary defects.

Identification of early-stage colorectal cancer patients at risk of relapse post-resection by immunobead reverse transcription-PCR analysis of peritoneal lavage fluid for malignant cells

Purpose: Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed with stage I or II disease are not routinely offered adjuvant chemotherapy following resection of the primary tumor. However, up to 10% of stage I and 30% of stage II patients relapse within 5 years of surgery from recurrent or metastatic disease. The aim of this study was to determine if tumor-associated markers could detect disseminated malignant cells and so identify a subgroup of patients with early-stage colorectal cancer that were at risk of relapse. Experimental Design: We recruited consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for early-stage colorectal cancer. Immunobead reverse transcription-PCR of five tumor-associated markers (carcinoembryonic antigen, laminin γ2, ephrin B4, matrilysin, and cytokeratin 20) was used to detect the presence of colon tumor cells in peripheral blood and within the peritoneal cavity of colon cancer patients perioperatively. Clinicopathologic variables were tested for their effect on survival outcomes in univariate analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to determine whether detection of tumor cells was an independent prognostic marker for disease relapse. Results: Overall, 41 of 125 (32.8%) early-stage patients were positive for disseminated tumor cells. Patients who were marker positive for disseminated cells in post-resection lavage samples showed a significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.6; P = 0.002), and this was independent of other risk factors. Conclusion: The markers used in this study identified a subgroup of early-stage patients at increased risk of relapse post-resection for primary colorectal cancer. This method may be considered as a new diagnostic tool to improve the staging and management of colorectal cancer. © 2006 American Association for Cancer Research.

An improved model of tumour-immune system interactions

The immune system plays an important role in defending the body against tumours and other threats. Currently, mechanisms involved in immune system interactions with tumour cells are not fully understood. Here we develop a mathematical tool that can be used in aiding to address this shortfall in understanding. This paper de- scribes a hybrid cellular automata model of the interaction between a growing tumour and cells of the innate and specific immune system including the effects of chemokines that builds on previous models of tumour-immune system interactions. In particular, the model is focused on the response of immune cells to tumour cells and how the dynamics of the tumour cells change due to the immune system of the host. We present results and predictions of in silico experiments including simulations of Kaplan-Meier survival-like curves.