An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

Responses of fruit flies (Tephritidae: Dacinae) to novel male attractants in north Queensland, Australia, and improved lures for some pest species

Male fruit fly attractants, cue-lure and methyl eugenol (ME), have been successfully used for the last 50 years in the monitoring and control of Dacini fruit flies (Bactrocera and Dacus species). However, over 50% of Dacini are non-responsive to either lure, including some pest species. A new lure, zingerone, has been found to weakly attract cue- and ME-responsive species in Malaysia. In Australia it attracted a weakly cue-responsive minor pest Bactrocera jarvisi (Tryon) and three non-responsive' species. Similar compounds were tested in Queensland and attracted cue- and ME-responsive species and two non-responsive' species. In this study, 14 novel compounds, including raspberry ketone formate (RKF) (Melolure) and zingerone, were field tested in comparison with cue-lure and ME at 17 sites in north Queensland. The most attractive novel lures were isoeugenol, methyl-isoeugenol, dihydroeugenol and zingerone. Several non-responsive' species responded to the new lures: Bactrocera halfordiae (Tryon), a species of some market access concern, was most attracted to isoeugenol; B.barringtoniae (Tryon), B.bidentata (May) and B.murrayi (Perkins) responded to isoeugenol, methyl-isoeugenol and dihydroeugenol; two new species of Dacus responded to zingerone. Bactrocera kraussi (Hardy), a cue-responsive minor pest in north Queensland, was significantly more attracted to isoeugenol than cue-lure. The cue-responsive D.absonifacies (May) and D.secamoneaeDrew were significantly more attracted to zingerone than cue-lure. Bactrocera yorkensisDrew & Hancock, a ME-responsive species was significantly more attracted to isoeugenol, methyl-isoeugenol and dihydroeugenol than ME. The preferential response to RKF or cue-lure was species specific. Six species were significantly more attracted to RKF, including the pests B.tryoni (Froggatt), B.frauenfeldi (Schiner) and minor pest B.bryoniae (Tryon); eight species were significantly more attracted to cue-lure including the pest B.neohumeralis (Hardy). These findings have significance in the search for optimal male lures for pest species elsewhere in the world.

Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.

On-farm Campylobacter and Escherichia coli in commercial broiler chickens: Re-used bedding does not influence Campylobacter emergence and levels across sequential farming cycles

Limitations in quality bedding material have resulted in the growing need to re-use litter during broiler farming in some countries, which can be of concern from a food-safety perspective. The aim of this study was to compare the Campylobacter levels in ceca and litter across three litter treatments under commercial farming conditions. The litter treatments were (a) the use of new litter after each farming cycle; (b) an Australian partial litter re-use practice; and (c) a full litter re-use practice. The study was carried out on two farms over two years (Farm 1, from 2009–2010 and Farm 2, from 2010–2011), across three sheds (35,000 to 40,000 chickens/shed) on each farm, adopting three different litter treatments across six commercial cycles. A random sampling design was adopted to test litter and ceca for Campylobacter and Escherichia coli, prior to commercial first thin-out and final pick-up. Campylobacter levels varied little across litter practices and farming cycles on each farm and were in the range of log 8.0–9.0 CFU/g in ceca and log 4.0–6.0 MPN/g for litter. Similarly the E. coli in ceca were ∼log 7.0 CFU/g. At first thin-out and final pick-up, the statistical analysis for both litter and ceca showed that the three-way interaction (treatments by farms by times) was highly significant (P < 0.01), indicating that the patterns of Campylobacter emergence/presence across time vary between the farms, cycles and pickups. The emergence and levels of both organisms were not influenced by litter treatments across the six farming cycles on both farms. Either C. jejuni or C. coli could be the dominant species across litter and ceca, and this phenomenon could not be attributed to specific litter treatments. Irrespective of the litter treatments in place, cycle 2 on Farm 2 remained campylobacter-free. These outcomes suggest that litter treatments did not directly influence the time of emergence and levels of Campylobacter and E. coli during commercial farming.

Minimization of Incompletely Specified Sequential Machines

A simple yet efficient method for the minimization of incompletely specified sequential machines (ISSMs) is proposed. Precise theorems are developed, as a consequence of which several compatibles can be deleted from consideration at the very first stage in the search for a minimal closed cover. Thus, the computational work is significantly reduced. Initial cardinality of the minimal closed cover is further reduced by a consideration of the maximal compatibles (MC's) only; as a result the method converges to the solution faster than the existing procedures. "Rank" of a compatible is defined. It is shown that ordering the compatibles, in accordance with their rank, reduces the number of comparisons to be made in the search for exclusion of compatibles. The new method is simple, systematic, and programmable. It does not involve any heuristics or intuitive procedures. For small- and medium-sized machines, it canle used for hand computation as well. For one of the illustrative examples used in this paper, 30 out of 40 compatibles can be ignored in accordance with the proposed rules and the remaining 10 compatibles only need be considered for obtaining a minimal solution.

Initialisation flaws in the A5-GMR-1 satphone encryption algorithm

A5-GMR-1 is a synchronous stream cipher used to provide confidentiality for communications between satellite phones and satellites. The keystream generator may be considered as a finite state machine, with an internal state of 81 bits. The design is based on four linear feedback shift registers, three of which are irregularly clocked. The keystream generator takes a 64-bit secret key and 19-bit frame number as inputs, and produces an output keystream of length between $2^8$ and $2^{10}$ bits. Analysis of the initialisation process for the keystream generator reveals serious flaws which significantly reduce the number of distinct keystreams that the generator can produce. Multiple (key, frame number) pairs produce the same keystream, and the relationship between the various pairs is easy to determine. Additionally, many of the keystream sequences produced are phase shifted versions of each other, for very small phase shifts. These features increase the effectiveness of generic time-memory tradeoff attacks on the cipher, making such attacks feasible.

Improved damping capacity and machinability of graphite particle-aluminum alloy composites

The damping capacity of cast graphitic aluminum alloy composites has been measured using a torsion pendulum at a constant strain amplitude. It was found that flake-graphite particles dispersed in the matrix of aluminum alloys increased the damping capacity; the improvement was greater, the higher the amount of graphite dispersed in the matrix. At sufficiently high graphite contents the damping capacity of graphitic aluminum composites approaches that of cast iron. The ratio between the damping capacity and the density of graphitic aluminum alloys is higher than cast iron, making them very attractive as light-weight, high-damping materials for possible aircraft applications. Machinability tests on graphite particle-aluminum composites, conducted at speeds of 315 sfm and 525 sfm, showed that the chip length decreased with the amount of graphite of a given size. When the size of graphite was decreased, at a given machining speed, the chip length decreased. Metallographic examination shows that graphite particles act as chip breakers, and are frequently sheared parallel to the plane of the

An algebraic approach to the restoration of images

Two different matrix algorithms are described for the restoration of blurred pictures. These are illustrated by numerical examples.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

An operational-level multi-stage mine production timetabling model for optimally synchronising drilling, blasting and excavating operations

This paper proposes a new multi-stage mine production timetabling (MMPT) model to optimise open-pit mine production operations including drilling, blasting and excavating under real-time mining constraints. The MMPT problem is formulated as a mixed integer programming model and can be optimally solved for small-size MMPT instances by IBM ILOG-CPLEX. Due to NP-hardness, an improved shifting-bottleneck-procedure algorithm based on the extended disjunctive graph is developed to solve large-size MMPT instances in an effective and efficient way. Extensive computational experiments are presented to validate the proposed algorithm that is able to efficiently obtain the near-optimal operational timetable of mining equipment units. The advantages are indicated by sensitivity analysis under various real-life scenarios. The proposed MMPT methodology is promising to be implemented as a tool for mining industry because it is straightforwardly modelled as a standard scheduling model, efficiently solved by the heuristic algorithm, and flexibly expanded by adopting additional industrial constraints.

Computation of turbulent flow in an IFRF quarl burner

A computational model for isothermal axisymmetric turbulent flow in a quarl burner is set up using the CFD package FLUENT, and numerical solutions obtained from the model are compared with available experimental data. A standard k-e model and and two versions of the RNG k-e model are used to model the turbulence. One of the aims of the computational study is to investigate whether the RNG based k-e turbulence models are capable of yielding improved flow predictions compared with the standard k-e turbulence model. A difficulty is that the flow considered here features a confined vortex breakdown which can be highly sensitive to flow behaviour both upstream and downstream of the breakdown zone. Nevertheless, the relatively simple confining geometry allows us to undertake a systematic study so that both grid-independent and domain-independent results can be reported. The systematic study includes a detailed investigation of the effects of upstream and downstream conditions on the predictions, in addition to grid refinement and other tests to ensure that numerical error is not significant. Another important aim is to determine to what extent the turbulence model predictions can provide us with new insights into the physics of confined vortex breakdown flows. To this end, the computations are discussed in detail with reference to known vortex breakdown phenomena and existing theories. A major conclusion is that one of the RNG k-e models investigated here is able to correctly capture the complex forward flow region inside the recirculating breakdown zone. This apparently pathological result is in stark contrast to the findings of previous studies, most of which have concluded that either algebraic or differential Reynolds stress modelling is needed to correctly predict the observed flow features. Arguments are given as to why an isotropic eddy-viscosity turbulence model may well be able to capture the complex flow structure within the recirculating zone for this flow setup. With regard to the flow physics, a major finding is that the results obtained here are more consistent with the view that confined vortex breakdown is a type of axisymmetric boundary layer separation, rather than a manifestation of a subcritical flow state.

A Reactive Inverse PN Algorithm for Collision Avoidance among Multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

While performing a mission, multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) need to avoid each other to prevent collisions among them. In this paper, we design a collision avoidance algorithm to resolve the conflict among UAVs that are on a collision course while flying to heir respective destinations. The collision avoidance algorithm consist of each UAV that is on a collision course reactively executing a maneuver that will, as in `inverse' Proportional Navigation (PN), increase Line of Sight (LOS) rate between them, resulting in a `pulling out' of collision course. The algorithm is tested for high density traffic scenarios as well as for robustness in the presence of noise.

Modified ILMI algorithm for practical PID/PD implementation on a Micro Air Vehicle

This paper extends the iterative linear matrix inequality algorithm (ILMI) for systems having non-ideal PI, PD and PID implementations. The new algorithm uses the practical implementation of the feedback blocksto form the equivalent static output feedback plant. The LMI based synthesis techniques are used in the algorithm to design a multi-loop, multi-objective fixed structure control. The benefits of such a control design technique are brought out by applying it to the lateral stabilizing and tracking feedback control problem of a 30cm wingspan micro air vehicle.