Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

NAPLAN, a high priority or . . . ? Statements about its purpose in Queensland schools

This paper reports on statements from Professional Development participants who were asked to comment on NAPLAN. The participants were involved in a project designed by the YuMi Deadly Centre (YDC) for implementation into 25 Queensland School to enhance the teaching and learning of mathematics to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students and low SES students. Using an action research framework and a survey questionnaire, the preliminary data obtained from participating principals is mixed, with statements indicating that NAPLAN is a high priority for some schools while others indicated that it does not “tell” the whole story of student learning.

Sensitivity of organic matter decomposition to warming varies with its quality

The relationship between organic matter (OM) lability and temperature sensitivity is disputed, with recent observations suggesting that responses of relatively more resistant OM to increased temperature could be greater than, equivalent to, or less than responses of relatively more labile OM. This lack of clear understanding limits the ability to forecast carbon (C) cycle responses to temperature changes. Here, we derive a novel approach (denoted Q(10-q)) that accounts for changes in OM quality during decomposition and use it to analyze data from three independent sources. Results from new laboratory soil incubations (labile Q(10-q)=2.1 +/- 0.2; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.8 +/- 0.3) and reanalysis of data from other soil incubations reported in the literature (labile Q(10-q)=2.3; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.3) demonstrate that temperature sensitivity of soil OM decomposition increases with decreasing soil OM lability. Analysis of data from a cross-site, field litter bag decomposition study (labile Q(10-q)=3.3 +/- 0.2; resistant Q(10-q)=4.9 +/- 0.2) shows that litter OM follows the same pattern, with greater temperature sensitivity for more resistant litter OM. Furthermore, the initial response of cultivated soils, presumably containing less labile soil OM (Q(10-q)=2.4 +/- 0.3) was greater than that for undisturbed grassland soils (Q(10-q)=1.7 +/- 0.1). Soil C losses estimated using this approach will differ from previous estimates as a function of the magnitude of the temperature increase and the proportion of whole soil OM comprised of compounds sensitive to temperature over that temperature range. It is likely that increased temperature has already prompted release of significant amounts of C to the atmosphere as CO2. Our results indicate that future losses of litter and soil C may be even greater than previously supposed.

Prevalence of upper-body symptoms following breast cancer and its relationship with upper-body function and lymphoedema

This investigation describes the prevalence of upper-body symptoms in a population-based sample of women with breast cancer (BC) and examines their relationships with upper-body function (UBF) and lymphoedema, as two clinically important sequelae. Australian women (n=287) with unilateral BC were assessed at three-monthly intervals, from six to 18 months post-surgery (PS). Participants reported the presence and intensity of upper-body symptoms on the treated side. Objective and self-reported UBF and lymphoedema (bioimpedance spectroscopy) were also assessed. Approximately 50% of women reported at least one moderate-to-extreme symptom at 6- and at 18-months PS. There was a significant relationship between symptoms and function (p<0.01), whereby perceived and objective function declined with increasing number of symptoms present. Those with lymphoedema were more likely to report multiple symptoms and presence of symptoms at baseline increased risk of lymphoedema (ORs>1.3, p=0.02). Although, presence of symptoms explained only 5.5% of the variation in the odds of lymphoedema. Upper-body symptoms are common and persistent following breast cancer and are associated with clinical ramifications, including reduced UBF and increased risk of developing lymphoedema. However, using the presence of symptoms as a diagnostic indicator of lymphoedema is limited.

Framework for measuring corporate safety culture and its impact on construction safety performance

This paper presents the results of a structural equation model (SEM) that describes and quantifies the relationships between corporate culture and safety performance. The SEM is estimated using 196 individual questionnaire responses from three companies with better than average safety records. A multiattribute analysis of corporate safety culture characteristics resulted in a hierarchical description of corporate safety culture comprised of three major categories — people, process, and value. These three major categories were decomposed into 54 measurable questions and used to develop a questionnaire to quantify corporate safety culture. The SEM identified five latent variables that describe corporate safety culture: (1) a company’s safety commitment; (2) the safety incentives that are offered to field personal for safe performance; (3) the subcontractor involvement in the company culture; (4) the field safety accountability and dedication; and (5) the disincentives for unsafe behaviors. These characteristics of company safety culture serve as indicators for a company’s safety performance. Based on the findings from this limited sample of three companies, this paper proposes a list of practices that companies may consider to improve corporate safety culture and safety performance. A more comprehensive study based on a larger sample is recommended to corroborate the findings of this study.

Parallel linear system solution and its application to railway power network simulation

The Streaming SIMD extension (SSE) is a special feature embedded in the Intel Pentium III and IV classes of microprocessors. It enables the execution of SIMD type operations to exploit data parallelism. This article presents improving computation performance of a railway network simulator by means of SSE. Voltage and current at various points of the supply system to an electrified railway line are crucial for design, daily operation and planning. With computer simulation, their time-variations can be attained by solving a matrix equation, whose size mainly depends upon the number of trains present in the system. A large coefficient matrix, as a result of congested railway line, inevitably leads to heavier computational demand and hence jeopardizes the simulation speed. With the special architectural features of the latest processors on PC platforms, significant speed-up in computations can be achieved.

Development of a composite line source emission model for traffic interrupted microenvironments and its application in particle number emissions at a bus station

A composite line source emission (CLSE) model was developed to specifically quantify exposure levels and describe the spatial variability of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments. This model took into account the complexity of vehicle movements in the queue, as well as different emission rates relevant to various driving conditions (cruise, decelerate, idle and accelerate), and it utilised multi-representative segments to capture the accurate emission distribution for real vehicle flow. Hence, this model was able to quickly quantify the time spent in each segment within the considered zone, as well as the composition and position of the requisite segments based on the vehicle fleet information, which not only helped to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations, but it also helped to define the emission source distribution of the disrupted steady flow for further dispersion modelling. The model then was applied to estimate particle number emissions at a bi-directional bus station used by diesel and compressed natural gas fuelled buses. It was found that the acceleration distance was of critical importance when estimating particle number emission, since the highest emissions occurred in sections where most of the buses were accelerating and no significant increases were observed at locations where they idled. It was also shown that emissions at the front end of the platform were 43 times greater than at the rear of the platform. Although the CLSE model is intended to be applied in traffic management and transport analysis systems for the evaluation of exposure, as well as the simulation of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments, the bus station model can also be used for the input of initial source definitions in future dispersion models.

A review on stereolithography and its applications in biomedical engineering

Stereolithography is a solid freeform technique (SFF) that was introduced in the late 1980s. Although many other techniques have been developed since then, stereolithography remains one of the most powerful and versatile of all SFF techniques. It has the highest fabrication accuracy and an increasing number of materials that can be processed is becoming available. In this paper we discuss the characteristic features of the stereolithography technique and compare it to other SFF techniques. The biomedical applications of stereolithography are reviewed, as well as the biodegradable resin materials that have been developed for use with stereolithography. Finally, an overview of the application of stereolithography in preparing porous structures for tissue engineering is given.

Evaluating sustainability of urban development and its contribution to a knowledge-base development

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to discuss the components of urban sustainability as to their implications about knowledge-base economy and society Design/methodology/approach – An indexing model which can be used by the local government specifically in Australia is presented to generate sustainable urban development policies. The model consists of sustainable neighbourhood indicators and employs a spatial indexing method to measure the sustainability performance of the urban settings Originality/value – This methodology puts in evidence about the use of indexing methodology in the assessment of sustainable neighbourhood performance Practical implications – This model could be considered as a practical decision aid tool for local government planning agencies for the evaluation of development scenarios Keywords – knowledge-based urban development, sustainable urban development, sustainable transport, sustainability assessment Paper type – Academic Research Paper

12 fingers or one, it’s how you play? Genetic discrimination in the Australian workforce

For quite some time, debate has raged about what the human race can and should do with its knowledge of genetics. We are now nearly 60 years removed from the work of Watson and Crick who determined the structure of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), yet our opinions as how best to employ scientific knowledge of the human genome, remain as diverse and polarised as ever. Human judgment is often shaped and coloured by popular media and culture, so it should come as no surprise that box office movies such as Gattaca (1997) continue to play a role in informing public opinion on genetics. In order to perform well at the box office, movies such as Gattaca take great liberty in sensationalising (and even distorting) the implications that may result from genetic screening and testing. If the public’s opinion on human genetics is strongly derived from the box office and popular media, then it is no wonder that the discourse on human genetics is couched in the polar parlances of future utopias or future dystopias. When legislating in an area like genetic discrimination in the workforce, we must be mindful of not overplaying the causal link between genetic predisposition towards a disability and an employee’s ability to perform the inherent requirements of their job. Genetic information is ultimately about people, it is not about genes. Genetic discrimination is ultimately about actions, it is not about the intrinsic value of genetic information.

Use of ITS to improve level crossings safety : open issues

Level crossing crashes have been shown to result in enormous human and financial cost to society. According to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) [5] a total of 632 Railway Level crossing (RLX) collisions, between trains and road vehicles, occurred in Australia between 2001 and June 2009. The cost of RLX collisions runs into the tens of millions of dollars each year in Australia [6]. In addition, loss of life and injury are commonplace in instances where collisions occur. Based on estimates that 40% of rail related fatalities occur at level crossings [12], it is estimated that 142 deaths between 2001 and June 2009 occurred at RLX. The aim of this paper is to (i) summarise crash patterns in Australia, (ii) review existing international ITS interventions to improve level crossing and (iii) highlights open human factors research related issues. Human factors (e.g., driver error, lapses or violations) have been evidenced as a significant contributing factor in RLX collisions, with drivers of road vehicles particularly responsible for many collisions. Unintentional errors have been found to contribute to 46% of RLX collisions [6] and appear to be far more commonplace than deliberate violations. Humans have been found to be inherently inadequate at using the sensory information available to them to facilitate safe decision-making at RLX and tend to underestimate the speed of approaching large objects due to the non-linear increases in perceived size [6]. Collisions resulting from misjudgements of train approach speed and distance are common [20]. Thus, a fundamental goal for improved RLX safety is the provision of sufficient contextual information to road vehicle drivers to facilitate safe decision-making regarding crossing behaviours.

Consuming authentic neighborhood : an autoethnography of experiencing a neighborhood's new beginnings and origins within its servicescapes

Purpose - This chapter examines individual and collective quests for authenticity, as experienced through consumption activities within an urban neighbourhood. It investigates the interplay between consumption experiences as authenticating acts and authoritative performances (Arnould and Price 2000), and considers the implications with regard to Zukin’s (2010) theories on urban authenticity, and how it may be experienced as new beginnings and origins. Methodology - The chapter is based on autoethnographic research that explores how interaction and identity definition within servicescapes can work to construct place-based community. Findings - It describes how a servicescape of new beginnings offered opportunities for individual authentication that also enabled personal identification with a specific cultural group. This authentication drew on the cultural capital embedded in such locations, including their association with gentrification. This is contrast with the collective identification offered by a servicescape operating as a place of exposure. This site of origins displayed the social practices of a different demographic, which worked to highlight a relational link between the authentication practices of the broader neighbourhood. These sites also worked cumulatively, to highlight the inauthenticities within my identification practices and offer opportunities for redress. Through this interplay it was possible to establish an authentic sense of neighbourhood that drew on its new beginnings and its origins, and was both individual and collective. Originality - Through the combination of urban and consumption-based perspectives of authenticity, and an autoethnographic methodology, this chapter offers a different insight into the ways identification with, and attachment to, a neighbourhood can develop through consumption experiences.

Melt electrospinning of polycaprolactone and its blends with poly(ethylene glycol)

Melt electrospinning is one aspect of electrospinning with relatively little published literature, although the technique avoids solvent accumulation and/or toxicity which is favoured in certain applications. In the study reported, we melt-electrospun blends of poly(ε-caprolactone) (PCL) and an amphiphilic diblock copolymer consisting of poly(ethylene glycol) and PCL segments (PEG-block-PCL). A custom-made electrospinning apparatus was built and various combinations of instrument parameters such as voltage and polymer feeding rate were investigated. Pure PEG-block-PCL copolymer melt electrospinning did not result in consistent and uniform fibres due to the low molecular weight, while blends of PCL and PEG-block-PCL, for some parameter combinations and certain weight ratios of the two components, were able to produce continuous fibres significantly thinner (average diameter of ca 2 µm) compared to pure PCL. The PCL fibres obtained had average diameters ranging from 6 to 33 µm and meshes were uniform for the lowest voltage employed while mesh uniformity decreased when the voltage was increased. This approach shows that PCL and blends of PEG-block-PCL and PCL can be readily processed by melt electrospinning to obtain fibrous meshes with varied average diameters and morphologies that are of interest for tissue engineering purposes. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry